Modeling activity conflict resolution strategies using scheduling process data

Developments in activity scheduling process data have recently allowed for much improvement and validation of rule-based activity scheduling models. The use of actual scheduling process data allows for a potentially more realistic model in terms of how the travel episodes are actually derived. Since these types of models are simulations of the scheduling process, scheduling conflicts naturally arise in the creation of the final schedule. The handling of these scheduling conflicts is a critical component of all rule-based activity models. Many of these models rely on the concept of priority of the activities to resolve conflicts. However, recent research has shown that this is often not how conflicts are actually resolved. In order to more accurately model actual conflict resolution behavior, scheduling process data was used to estimate conflict resolution rules using decision trees. The use of a conflict resolution model allows the strategy chosen to depend on the attributes of the individual and the conflicting activities, rather than assuming a prior definition of precedence based on the activity types. The conflict resolution decision showed reasonable ability to predict the resolution strategy chosen in actual scheduling process survey data, and represents an important advance in developing a functional computational process model of activity scheduling.     

Impact of continuous climb operations on airport capacity

The full benefits of Continuous Climb Operations (CCO) are realised when CCO are performed without interruption. However, CCO require safe departures that necessarily implies a reduction in capacity at high density traffic airports. This paper quantifies the capacity impact due to the integration of CCO (conflict-free with other departures and arrivals) in a high density traffic airport. The methodology develops a scheduling algorithm, a conflict-detection and resolution algorithm, and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduling algorithm calculates two schedules, one for departures and another for arrivals, considering the CCO Rate. The conflict-detection and resolution algorithm compares CCO and arrival trajectories to detect which aircraft pairs are in conflict. The Air Traffic Control (ATC) intervention required to solve the conflict is modelled by delaying the CCO take-off. Numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo techniques are used to analyse scheduling combinations that are statistically significant in terms of conflict, ATC interventions, total delay and capacity. The results show a 32% reduction in the maximum theoretical capacity with a CCO Rate of 100%. Despite the reduction, the number of CCO departures is above the maximum operational capacity (50% of the maximum theoretical capacity). This implies that with optimised scheduling it is possible for all departures to be CCO.     

Aircraft trajectory forecasting using local functional regression in Sobolev space

This paper considers the problem of short to mid-term aircraft trajectory prediction, that is, the estimation of where an aircraft will be located over a 10–30 min time horizon. Such a problem is central in decision support tools, especially in conflict detection and resolution algorithms. It also appears when an air traffic controller observes traffic on the radar screen and tries to identify convergent aircraft, which may be in conflict in the near future. An innovative approach for aircraft trajectory prediction is presented in this paper. This approach is based on local linear functional regression that considers data preprocessing, localizing and solving linear regression using wavelet decomposition. This algorithm takes into account only past radar tracks, and does not use any physical or aeronautical parameters. This approach has been successfully applied to aircraft trajectories between several airports on the data set that is one year air traffic over France. The method is intrinsic and independent from airspace structure.     

Operating cost based cruise speed reduction for ground delay programs: Effect of scope length

Ground delay programs typically involve the delaying of aircraft that are departing from origin airports within some set distance of a capacity constrained destination airport. Long haul flights are not delayed in this way. A trade-off exists when fixing the distance parameter: increasing the ‘scope’ distributes delay among more aircraft and may reduce airborne holding delay but could also result in unnecessary delay in the (frequently observed) case of early program cancellation. In order to overcome part of this drawback, a fuel based cruise speed reduction strategy aimed at realizing airborne delay, was suggested by the authors in previous publications. By flying slower, at a specific speed, aircraft that are airborne can recover part of their initially assigned delay without incurring extra fuel consumption if the ground delay program is canceled before planned. In this paper, the effect of the scope of the program is assessed when applying this strategy. A case study is presented by analyzing all the ground delay programs that took place at San Francisco, Newark Liberty and Chicago O’Hare International airports during one year. Results show that by the introduction of this technique it is possible to define larger scopes, partially reducing the amount of unrecovered delay.     

Coloured Petri net-based traffic collision avoidance system encounter model for the analysis of potential induced collisions

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is a world-wide accepted last-resort means of reducing the probability and frequency of mid-air collisions between aircraft. Unfortunately, it is widely known that in congested airspace, the use of the TCAS may actually lead to induced collisions. Therefore, further research regarding TCAS logic is required. In this paper, an encounter model is formalised to identify all of the potential collision scenarios that can be induced by a resolution advisory that was generated previously by the TCAS without considering the downstream consequences in the surrounding traffic. The existing encounter models focus on checking and validating the potential collisions between trajectories of a specific scenario. In contrast, the innovative approach described in this paper concentrates on quantitative analysis of the different induced collision scenarios that could be reached for a given initial trajectory and a rough specification of the surrounding traffic. This approach provides valuable information at the operational level. Furthermore, the proposed encounter model can be used as a test-bed to evaluate future TCAS logic changes to mitigate potential induced collisions in hot spot volumes. In addition, the encounter model is described by means of the coloured Petri net (CPN) formalism. The resulting state space provides a deep understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship that each TCAS action proposed to avoid an actual collision with a potential new collision in the surrounding traffic. Quantitative simulation results are conducted to validate the proposed encounter model, and the resulting collision scenarios are summarised as valuable information for future Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems.     

Probabilistic multi-aircraft conflict detection approach for trajectory-based operation

Conflict detection (CD) is one of the key functions used to ensure air transport safety and efficiency. In trajectory-based operation (TBO), aircraft are provided with more flexibility in en route trajectory planning and more responsibility for self-separation. The high flexibility in trajectory planning enables random changes in pilot intent, thus increasing the uncertainty in trajectory prediction and CD. This study proposes a novel probabilistic CD approach for TBO in which the uncertainty of pilot intent is taken into account by quantifying the aircraft reachable domain constrained by the flight plan. First, a probabilistic model for aircraft trajectory prediction is developed using the truncated Brownian bridge method. Based on this model, a novel conflict probability estimation method is developed. Finally, the performance of the proposed probabilistic CD approach is demonstrated through an illustrative air traffic scenario.     

Decision analysis and optimality in air traffic control conflict resolution I. optimal timing of speed control in a linear planar configuration

This paper concerns itself with the effects of the air traffic controller's intervention on the progress of a potential aerial conflict and its resolution. The subsumed model consists of two planar intersecting air routes along which aircraft travel with fixed velocities. A potential conflict is declared whenever two airplanes on different routes violate a given safety distance. The task of the controller is to expediently resolve the conflict by modifying, at the right moment, the relative velocities of the planes involved. The intensity of the potential conflict—measured by its duration and minimum separation—depends, beside the approach pattern, on the variables manipulable by the controller. A complete analytical study of the conflict's intensity as a function of the controller's instructions is carried out, and consequently the optimal decisions that contribute most to the resolution of the conflict are laid out.     

An ensemble approach for conflict detection in Free Flight by data mining

Airborne separation assurance is a key requirement for Free Flight operations. A variety of conflict detection (CD) and resolution algorithms have been developed for this task. A lack of rigorous evaluation and the existence of an infinite number of possible conflict geometries in Free Flight makes the choice of which algorithm to be placed in the cockpit a challenging task for the designers of future air traffic management (ATM) systems. In this paper, we propose an ensemble approach for CD in Free Flight. The ensemble consists of several CD algorithms, a rule set for each algorithm describing its learned behavior from its past performance and a switch mechanism to choose an appropriate CD algorithm given probe characteristics. A novel mechanism to evolve complex conflict scenarios, using genetic algorithms (GA), is developed and integrated in a fast time air traffic simulator to generate the performance data of CD algorithms. Data mining techniques are then employed to identify implicit patterns in the probe characteristics where the CD algorithms missed or falsely identified a conflict. These patterns are formulated as rule sets for each CD algorithm and are then used by a switch in the ensemble to route a probe for conflict prediction. Given probe characteristics, the CD algorithm, which is less likely to miss or falsely identify a conflict, is selected to evaluate the probe for potential conflict. The performance of the ensemble and of individual algorithms is evaluated by comparing the Pareto efficient set of solutions generated by them. The ensemble approach demonstrates a significant reduction in the number of missed detects and false alarms as compared to individual algorithms. The proposed methodology is capable of accommodating existing as well as new CD models and can be extended to other ATM concepts as well.     

The simple platoon advancement model of its technologies applied to vehicle control at signalised intersections

The Simple Platoon Advancement (SPA) Model describes a conceptual system whose principal objective is to increase the throughput of vehicles at signalised intersections. This is achieved through a novel combination of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technologies including Automatic Cruise Control, Lane Departure Avoidance, and Collision Avoidance. These are combined in SPA so that vehicles are progressed through signalised intersections under automated control. All of the vehicles in a stationary queue are moved instantly at the start‐of‐green as a closely‐spaced platoon. Dispersion occurs after all vehicles are in motion. Throughput of the SPA model is determined analytically and comparisons are made between the SPA model and a valid representation of current road traffic behaviour. These comparisons show that theoretically a SPA system can progress nearly twice as many vehicles past the stopline as can be seen in today's road network. Other benefits of a conceptual SPA system are improved safety and a reduction in delay per vehicle.     

The punctuality performance of aircraft rotations in a network of airports

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of aircraft turnaround performance at airports on the schedule punctuality of aircraft rotations in a network of airports. A mathematical model is applied, composed of two sub-models, namely the aircraft turnaround model (turnaround simulations) and the enroute model (enroute flight time simulations). A Markovian type model is featured in the aircraft turnaround model to simulate the operation of aircraft turnarounds at an airport by considering operational uncertainties and schedule punctuality variance. In addition, stochastic Monte Carlo simulations are employed to carry out stochastic sampling and simulations in both the aircraft turnaround model and the enroute model. Results of simulations show the robustness of the aircraft rotation model in capturing uncertainties from aircraft rotations. The propagation of knock-on delays in aircraft rotations is found to be significant when the short-connection-time policy is used by an airline at its hub airport. It is also found that the proper inclusion of schedule buffer time in the aircraft rotation schedule helps control the propagation of knock-on delays and, therefore, stabilize the punctuality performance of aircraft rotations.     

Coordinated multi-aircraft 4D trajectories planning considering buffer safety distance and fuel consumption optimization via pure-strategy game

In this paper, we consider a coordinated multi-aircraft 4D (3D space plus time) trajectories planning problem which is illustrated by planning 4D trajectories for aircraft traversing an Air Traffic Control (ATC) sector. The planned 4D trajectories need to specify each aircraft’s position at any time, ensuring conflict-free and reducing fuel and delay costs, with possible aircraft maneuvers such as speed adjustment and flight level change. Different from most existing literature, the impact of buffer safety distance is also under consideration, and conflict-free is guaranteed at any given time (not only at discrete time instances). The problem is formulated as a pure-strategy game with aircraft as players and all possible 4D trajectories as strategies. An efficient maximum improvement distributed algorithm is developed to find equilibrium at which every aircraft cannot unilaterally improve further, without enumerating all possible 4D trajectories in advance. Proof of existence of the equilibrium and convergence of the algorithm are given. A case study based on real air traffic data shows that the algorithm is able to solve 4D trajectories for online application with estimated 16.7% reduction in monetary costs, and allocate abundant buffer safety distance at minimum separation point. Scalability of the algorithm is verified by computational experiments.     

Development,validation and application of stochastically and dynamically coloured Petri net model of ACAS operations for safety assessment purposes

In view of the SESAR and NextGEN objectives of increasing both the capacity and the safety of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, there is a need to conduct safety risk analysis of current or new operations, covering the joint effect of airborne and ground-based safety nets in ATM. The subject of the research presented in this paper is Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS) which presents an airborne safety net within an ATM context, for current practices as well as advanced concepts. The aim of the research described in this paper is fivefold: (a) to verify existing ACAS models regarding their coverage of evaluation needs of ACAS operations; (b) to develop a stochastic and dynamical model of ACAS II including interactions with pilots and air traffic control; (c) to develop a systematic validation process that allows building model confidence; (d) to initially apply this validation process to the newly-developed ACAS model; and (e) to use the ACAS model to assess the potential collision risk reduction by ACAS II for a historical en-route mid-air collision event. The specific modelling formalism used for this is Stochastically and Dynamically Coloured Petri Nets (SDCPN). The developed SDCPN-based ACAS model contains the technical, human and procedural elements of ACAS operations and fully supports mathematical analysis as well as rare event Monte Carlo simulation of aircraft encounters. In order to build confidence into the developed model and to judge model credibility, a systematic multilevel validation process is defined and is successfully applied. The SDCPN-based ACAS model is demonstrated to work well for a historical en-route mid-air collision event and is very powerful in determining the most critical elements contributing to the non-zero collision risk of ACAS operation.     

Integrated sequencing and merging aircraft to parallel runways with automated conflict resolution and advanced avionics capabilities

Congestion in Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) in hub airports is the main problem in Chinese air transportation. In this paper we propose a new system to integrated sequence and merge aircraft to parallel runways at Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA). This system is based on the advanced avionics capabilities. Our methodology integrates a Multi-Level Point Merge (ML-PM) system, an economical descent approaches procedure, and a tailored heuristic algorithm to find a good, systematic, operationally-acceptable solution. First, Receding Horizontal Control (RHC) technique is applied to divide the entire 24 h of traffic into several sub-problems. Then in each sub-problem, it is optimized on given objectives (conflict, deviation from Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) on the runway and makespan of the arrival flow). Four decision variables are designed to control the trajectory: the entry time, the entry speed, the turning time on the sequencing leg, and the landing runway allocation. Based on these variables, the real time trajectories are generated by the simulation module. Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm is used to search the best solution for aircraft to execute. Finally, the conflict-free, least-delay, and user-preferred trajectories from the entry point of TMA to the landing runway are defined. Numerical results show that our optimization system has very stable de-conflict performance to handle continuously dense arrivals in transition airspace. It can also provide the decision support to assist flow controllers to handle the asymmetric arrival flows on different runways with less fuel consumption, and to assist tactical controllers to easily re-sequence aircraft with more relaxed position shifting. Moreover, our system can provide the fuel consumption prediction, and runway assignment information to assist airport and airlines managers for optimal decision making. Theoretically, it realizes an automated, cooperative and green control of routine arrival flows. Although the methodology defined here is applied to the airport BCIA, it could also be applied to other airports in the world.     

Operating cost sensitivity to required time of arrival commands to ensure separation in optimal aircraft 4D trajectories

Trajectory optimisation has shown good potential to reduce environmental impact in aviation. However, a recurring problem is the loss in airspace capacity that fuel optimal procedures pose, usually overcome with speed, altitude or heading advisories that lead to more costly trajectories. This paper aims at the quantification in terms of fuel and time consumption of implementing suboptimal trajectories in a 4D trajectory context that use required times of arrival at specific navigation fixes. A case study is presented by simulating conflicting Airbus A320 departures from two major airports in Catalonia. It is shown how requiring an aircraft to arrive at a waypoint early or late leads to increased fuel burn. In addition, the efficiency of such methods to resolve air traffic conflicts is studied in terms of both fuel burn and resulting aircraft separations. Finally, various scenarios are studied reflecting various airline preferences with regards to cost and fuel burn, as well as different route and conflict geometries for a broader scope of study.     

Study on the framework of hybrid collision warning system using loop detectors and vehicle information

Safety warning systems generally operate based on information from sensors attached to individual vehicles. Various types of data used for collision risk calculation can be categorized into two types, microscopic or macroscopic, depending on how the sensors collect the information of traffic state. Most collision warning systems use only either of these types of data, but they all have limitations imposed by the data, such as requirement of high installation cost and high market penetration rate of devices. In order to overcome these limits, we propose a collision warning system that utilizes the integrated information of macroscopic data and microscopic data, from loop detectors and smartphones respectively. The proposed system is evaluated by simulating a real vehicle trip based on the NGSIM data. We compare the results against collision warning systems based on macroscopic data from infrastructure and microscopic data from Vehicle-to-Vehicle information. The analysis of three systems shows two findings that (a) ICWS (Infrastructure-based Collision Warning System) is inadequate for immediate collision warning system and (b) VCWS (V2V communication based Collision Warning System) and HCWS (Hybrid Collision Warning System) produce collision warning at very similar timing, even with different behavior of individual drivers. Advantages of HCWS are that it can be directly applied to existing system with small additional cost, because data of loop detector are already available to be used in Korea and smartphones are widely spread. Also, the computation power distributed to each individual smartphone greatly increases the efficiency of the system by distributing the computation resources and load.     

Dynamic change of aircraft seat condition for fast boarding

Aircraft boarding is a process mainly impacted by the boarding sequence, individual passenger behavior and the amount of hand luggage. Whereas these aspects are widely addressed in scientific research and considered in operational improvements, the influence of infrastructural changes is only focused upon in the context of future aircraft design. The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the innovative approach of a Side-Slip Seat, which allows passengers to pass each other during boarding. The seat holds the potential to reduce the boarding time by approx. 20%, even considering operational constraints, such as passenger conformance to the proposed boarding strategy. A validated stochastic boarding model is extended to analyze the impact of the Side-Slip Seat. The implementation of such fundamental change inside the aircraft cabin demands for adapted boarding strategies, in order to cover all the benefits that accompany this new dynamic seating approach. To reasonably identify efficient strategies, an evolutionary algorithm is used to systematically optimize boarding sequences. As a result, the evolutionary algorithm depicts that operationally relevant boarding strategies implementing the Side-Slip Seat should differentiate between the left and the right side of the aisle, instead of the current operationally preferred boarding from the back to the front.     

Measuring the environmental efficiency of the global aviation fleet

This research analyses the environmental footprint of the airline industry in an attempt to highlight potential paths for improvement. We develop a directional economic-environmental distance function (DEED) which accounts for the production of both desirable and undesirable output and the potential for constrained increases in input utilization. This research applies the modeling framework to analyze the potential to reduce noise and airborne pollutants emitted by aircraft–engine combinations given the current state of aeronautical technology. The global aircraft–engine market is viewed from the regulatory perspective in order to compare the single environmental and operational efficient frontier to that of the airline carriers, and environmental objectives. The results of DEED are then applied in order to substitute the fleets serving Schipol, Amsterdam and Arlanda, Stockholm airports in June 2010 with the benchmark aircraft. The results highlight the inefficiencies of the current airline fleets and that the IPCC values of externalities are a magnitude of TEN too low to encourage changes in the global fleet hence the need for government intervention.     

Speed limits,speed selection and network equilibrium

This paper investigates the local and global impact of speed limits by considering road users’ non-obedient behavior in speed selection. Given a link-specific speed limit scheme, road users will take into account the subjective travel time cost, the perceived crash risk and the perceived ticket risk as determinant factors for their actual speed choice on each link. Homogeneous travelers’ perceived crash risk is positively related to their driving speed. When travelers are heterogeneous, the perceived crash risk is class-specific: different user classes interact with each other and choose their own optimal speed, resulting in a Nash equilibrium speed pattern. With the speed choices on particular roads, travelers make route choices, resulting in user equilibrium in a general network. An algorithm is proposed to solve the user equilibrium problem with heterogeneous users under link-specific speed limits. The models and algorithms are illustrated with numerical examples.     

Specification and calibration of a microscopic model for pedestrian dynamic simulation at signalized intersections: A hybrid approach

Macroscopic pedestrian models for bidirectional flow analysis encounter limitations in describing microscopic dynamics at crosswalks. Pedestrian behavior at crosswalks is typically characterized by the evasive effect with conflicting pedestrians and vehicles and the following effect with leading pedestrians. This study proposes a hybrid approach (i.e., route search and social force-based approach) for modeling of pedestrian movement at signalized crosswalks. The key influential factors, i.e., leading pedestrians, conflict with opposite pedestrians, collision avoidance with vehicles, and compromise with traffic lights, are considered. Aerial video data collected at one intersection in Beijing, China were recorded and extracted. A new calibration approach based on a genetic algorithm is proposed that enables optimization of the relative error of pedestrian trajectory in two dimensions, i.e., moving distance and angle. Model validation is conducted by comparison with the observed trajectories in five typical cases of pedestrian crossing with or without conflict between pedestrians and vehicles. The characteristics of pedestrian flow, speed, acceleration, pedestrian-vehicle conflict, and the lane formation phenomenon were compared with those from two competitive models, thus demonstrating the advantage of the proposed model.     

Mobility and environment improvement of signalized networks through Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications

Traffic signals, even though crucial for safe operations of busy intersections, are one of the leading causes of travel delays in urban settings, as well as the reason why billions of gallons of fuel are burned, and tons of toxic pollutants released to the atmosphere each year by idling engines. Recent advances in cellular networks and dedicated short-range communications make Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications a reality, as individual cars and traffic signals can now be equipped with communication and computing devices. In this paper, we first presented an integrated simulator with V2I, a car-following model and an emission model to simulate the behavior of vehicles at signalized intersections and calculate travel delays in queues, vehicle emissions, and fuel consumption. We then present a hierarchical green driving strategy based on feedback control to smooth stop-and-go traffic in signalized networks, where signals can disseminate traffic signal information and loop detector data to connected vehicles through V2I communications. In this strategy, the control variable is an individual advisory speed limit for each equipped vehicle, which is calculated from its location, signal settings, and traffic conditions. Finally, we quantify the mobility and environment improvements of the green driving strategy with respect to market penetration rates of equipped vehicles, traffic conditions, communication characteristics, location accuracy, and the car-following model itself, both in isolated and non-isolated intersections. In particular, we demonstrate savings of around 15% in travel delays and around 8% in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Different from many existing ecodriving strategies in signalized road networks, where vehicles’ speed profiles are totally controlled, our strategy is hierarchical, since only the speed limit is provided, and vehicles still have to follow their leaders. Such a strategy is crucial for maintaining safety with mixed vehicles.