Does traffic-related calibration of car-following models provide accurate estimations of vehicle emissions?

Fuel consumption or pollutant emissions can be assessed by coupling a microscopic traffic flow model with an instantaneous emission model. Traffic models are usually calibrated using goodness of fit indicators related to the traffic behavior. Thus, this paper investigates how such a calibration influences the accuracy of fuel consumption and NOx and PM estimations. Two traffic models are investigated: Newell and Gipps. It appears that the Gipps model provides the closest simulated trajectories when compared to real ones. Interestingly, a reverse ranking is observed for fuel consumption, NOx and PM emissions. For both models, the emissions of single vehicles are very sensitive to the calibration. This is confirmed by a global sensitivity analysis of the Gipps model that shows that non-optimal parameters significantly increase the variance of the outputs. Fortunately, this is no longer the case when emissions are calculated for a group of many vehicles. Indeed, the mean errors for platoons are close to 10% for the Gipps model and always lower than 4% for the Newell model. Another interesting property is that optimal parameters for each vehicle can be replaced by the mean values with no discrepancy for the Newell model and low discrepancies for the Gipps model when calculating the different emission outputs. Finally, this study presents preliminary results that show that multi-objective calibration methods are certainly the best direction for future works on the Gipps model. Indeed, the accuracy of vehicle emissions can be highly improved with negligible counterparts on the traffic model accuracy.     

Are vehicle trajectories simulated by dynamic traffic models relevant for estimating fuel consumption?

This paper questions the relevance of microscopic traffic models for estimating the impact of traffic strategies on fuel consumption. Urban driving cycles from the ARTEMIS database are simplified into piecewise linear speed profiles to mimic the classical outputs of microscopic traffic flow models. Fuel consumption is estimated for real and simplified trajectories and links between kinematics and the fuel consumption errors are investigated. Simplifying trajectories causes fuel consumption underestimation, from −1.2 to −5.2% on average according to the level of simplification; errors can approach −20% for some cycles. A focus on kinematic phases indicates that the maximum speed reached and the time decelerating are the main influences on fuel consumption. Finally, in the case where maximum speeds are estimated correctly, it is shown that errors committed at each kinematic phase when acceleration distributions are approximated by their mean values, converge towards small errors over complete cycles. A method is developed to quantify and reduce these errors.     

Recursive estimation of average vehicle time headway using single inductive loop detector data

Vehicle time headway is an important traffic parameter. It affects roadway safety, capacity, and level of service. Single inductive loop detectors are widely deployed in road networks, supplying a wealth of information on the current status of traffic flow. In this paper, we perform Bayesian analysis to online estimate average vehicle time headway using the data collected from a single inductive loop detector. We consider three different scenarios, i.e. light, congested, and disturbed traffic conditions, and have developed a set of unified recursive estimation equations that can be applied to all three scenarios. The computational overhead of updating the estimate is kept to a minimum. The developed recursive method provides an efficient way for the online monitoring of roadway safety and level of service. The method is illustrated using a simulation study and real traffic data.     

Application of social force model to pedestrian behavior analysis at signalized crosswalk

Limited pedestrian behavior models shed light on the case at signalized crosswalk, where pedestrian behavior is characterized by group or individual evasion with surrounding pedestrians, collision avoidance with conflicting vehicles, and response to signal control and crosswalk boundary. This study fills this gap by developing a microscopic simulation model for pedestrian behavior analysis at signalized intersection. The social force theory has been employed and adjusted for this purpose. The parameters, including measurable and non-measurable ones, are either directly estimated based on observed dataset or indirectly derived by maximum likelihood estimation. Last, the model performance was confirmed in light of individual trajectory comparison between estimation and observation, passing position distribution at several cross-sections, collision avoidance behavior with conflicting vehicles, and lane-formation phenomenon. The simulation results also concluded that the model enables to visually represent pedestrian crossing behavior as in the real world.     

On the assessment of vehicle trajectory data accuracy and application to the Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) program data

Trajectories drawn in a common reference system by all the vehicles on a road are the ultimate empirical data to investigate traffic dynamics. The vast amount of such data made freely available by the Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) program is therefore opening up new horizons in studying traffic flow theory. Yet the quality of trajectory data and its impact on the reliability of related studies was a vastly underestimated problem in the traffic literature even before the availability of NGSIM data. The absence of established methods to assess data accuracy and even of a common understanding of the problem makes it hard to speak of reproducibility of experiments and objective comparison of results, in particular in a research field where the complexity of human behaviour is an intrinsic challenge to the scientific method. Therefore this paper intends to design quantitative methods to inspect trajectory data. To this aim first the structure of the error on point measurements and its propagation on the space travelled are investigated. Analytical evidence of the bias propagated in the vehicle trajectory functions and a related consistency requirement are given. Literature on estimation/filtering techniques is then reviewed in light of this requirement and a number of error statistics suitable to inspect trajectory data are proposed. The designed methodology, involving jerk analysis, consistency analysis and spectral analysis, is then applied to the complete set of NGSIM databases.