Promoting public bike-sharing: A lesson from the unsuccessful Pronto system

In 2014, Seattle implemented its own bike-sharing system, Pronto. However, the system ultimately ceased operation three years later on March 17th, 2017. To learn from this failure, this paper seeks to understand factors that encourage, or discourage, bike-sharing trip generation and attraction at the station level. This paper investigates the effects of land use, roadway design, elevation, bus trips, weather, and temporal factors on three-hour long bike pickups and returns at each docking station. To address temporal autocorrelations and the nonlinear seasonality, the paper implements a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) that incorporates the joint effects of a time metric and time-varying variables. The paper estimates models on total counts of pickups and returns, as well as pickups categorized by user types and by location. The results clarify that effects of hilly terrain and the rainy weather, two commonly perceived contributors to the failure. Additionally, results suggest that users in the University District, presumably mostly university students, tend to use shared bikes in neighborhoods with a higher household density and a higher percentage of residential land use, and make bike-sharing trips regardless workdays or non-workdays. The paper also contributes to the discussion on the relationship between public transportation service and bike-sharing. In general, users tend to use bike-sharing more at stations that have more scheduled bus trips nearby. However, some bike-sharing users may shift to bus services during peak hours and rainy weather. Several strategies are proposed accordingly to increase bike ridership in the future.     

A practical model for transfer optimization in a transit network: Model formulations and solutions

This paper studies the transit network scheduling problem and aims to minimize the waiting time at transfer stations. First, the problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming model that gives the departure times of vehicles in lines so that passengers can transfer between lines at transfer stations with minimum waiting times. Then, the model is expanded to a second model by considering the extra stopping time of vehicles at transfer stations as a new variable set. By calculating the optimal values for these variables, transfers can be better performed. The sizes of the models, compared with the existing models, are small enough that the models can be solved for small- and medium-sized networks using regular MIP solvers, such as CPLEX. Moreover, a genetic algorithm approach is represented to more easily solve larger networks. A simple network is used to describe the models, and a medium-sized, real-life network is used to compare the proposed models with another existing model in the literature. The results demonstrate significant improvement. Finally, a large-scale, real-life network is used as a case study to evaluate the proposed models and the genetic algorithm approach.     

Origin-destination matrices estimation model using automatic vehicle identification data and its application to the Han-Shin expressway network

The Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system was recently installed in expressway networks in Japan. License plate numbers of passing vehicles are monitored through roadside AVI cameras and then recognized. This paper shows the formulation of origin and destination (OD) matrices estimation model using the observed data with the AVI system. The results of license plate matching between a pair of AVI cameras are involved as the input variables. The formulated model is a least squares model and yields to the linear transformation of the partly observed OD matrices. The model is applied to the Kobe corridor line in the Han-Shin expressway network. It is found that the estimated OD matrix is consistent with the one using the previous mail survey. The proposed estimation method is expected to investigate the day-to-day fluctuations of OD patterns in the expressway network.     

Comparing the impact of future airline network change on emissions in India and the United States

In this paper we use simulation to analyze how flight routing network structure may change in different world regions, and how this might impact future traffic growth and emissions. We compare models of the domestic Indian and US air transportation systems, representing developing and mature air transportation systems respectively. We explicitly model passenger and airline decision-making, capturing passenger demand effects and airline operational responses, including airline network change. The models are applied to simulate air transportation system growth for networks of 49 airports in each country from 2005 to 2050. In India, the percentage of connecting passengers simulated decreases significantly (from over 40% in 2005 to under 10% in 2050), indicating that a shift in network structure towards increased point-to-point routing can be expected. In contrast, very little network change is simulated for the US airport set modeled. The simulated impact of network change on system CO₂ emissions is very small, although in the case of India it could enable a large increase in demand, and therefore a significant reduction in emissions per passenger (by nearly 25%). NO_x emissions at major hub airports are also estimated, and could initially reduce relative to a case in which network change is not simulated (by nearly 25% in the case of Mumbai in 2025). This effect, however, is significantly reduced by 2050 because of frequency competition effects. We conclude that network effects are important when estimating CO₂ emissions per passenger and local air quality effects at hub airports in developing air transportation systems.     

Passenger travel characteristics and bus operational states: a study based on IC card and GPS data in Yinchuan,China

ABSTRACT

In recent years, public transport has been developing rapidly and producing large amounts of traffic data. Emerging big data-mining techniques enable the application of these data in a variety of ways. This study uses bus intelligent card (IC card) data and global positioning system (GPS) data to estimate passenger boarding and alighting stations. First, an estimation model for boarding stations is introduced to determine passenger boarding stations. Then, the authors propose an innovative uplink and downlink information identification model (UDI) to generate information for estimating alighting stations. Subsequently, the estimation model for the alighting stations is introduced. In addition, a transfer station identification model is also developed to determine transfer stations. These models are applied to Yinchuan, China to analyze passenger flow characteristics and bus operations. The authors obtain passenger flows based on stations (stops), bus lines, and traffic analysis zones (TAZ) during weekdays and weekends. Moreover, average bus operational speeds are obtained. These findings can be used in bus network planning and optimization as well as bus operation scheduling.     

Constrained H∞ control of urban transportation network

Because transportation systems involve massive complex human activities, there exist substantial unpredictable uncertainties of the traffic demands. This paper aims at presenting an H_∞ control method for transportation network that can enhance the tolerance of the system due to these uncertainties. In particular, the store‐and‐forward approach is applied to model the system into a linear form. Then, a detailed controllability analysis shows that the system is not completely controllable by taking the constraints on the green times into account. This makes difficult to apply directly the H_∞ method. To overcome this difficulty, this paper isolates the fully controllable part of the transportation system, and the problem of disturbance attenuation is then solved by means of a convex optimization with linear matrix inequality. Finally, the simulation of a large‐scale hypothetical network is carried out to illustrate the results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The design of electric vehicle charging network

The promotion of Electric Vehicles (EVs) has become a key measure of the governments in their attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, range anxiety is a big barrier for drivers to choose EVs over traditional vehicles. Installing more charging stations in appropriate locations can relieve EV drivers’ range anxiety. To determine the locations of public charging stations, we propose two optimization models for two different charging modes - fast and slow charging, which aim at minimizing the total cost while satisfying certain coverage goal. Instead of using discrete points, we use geometric objects to represent charging demands. Importantly, to resolve the partial coverage problem (PCP) for networks, we extend the polygon overlay method to split the demands on the road network. After applying the models to Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) and to Downtown Toronto, we show that the proposed models are practical and effective in determining the locations of charging stations. Moreover, they can eliminate PCP and provide much more accurate results than the complementary partial coverage method (CP).     

The multi-criteria road network design problem in an urban area

In this paper, urban network design is analysed through a heuristic multi-criteria technique based on genetic algorithms. Both network layout and link capacity (link layout and traffic lights) are optimised. Different optimisation criteria are included for users, non-users and public system managers. Demand is considered elastic with respect to mode choice; both morning and afternoon peak periods are taken into account. In addition, choice of parking location is simulated. The procedure is applied to a test and to a real transportation system.     

Built environment effects on the integration of dockless bike-sharing and the metro

Bike-sharing provides a convenient feeder mode for connecting to a metro and is believed to be an efficient way to solve the first- and last-mile problem. Despite the increasing attention paid on the use of bike-sharing, few studies have investigated how built environment factors affect the integrated use of dockless bike-sharing (DBS) and the metro. Using data from one of the largest DBS operators in China (Ofo), this paper employed a series of negative binomial regressions to examine the effect of the built environment on the integrated use of DBS and the metro, using Shenzhen as a case study. The findings show that mixed land use is positively related to integrated use. Residential areas have higher access-integrated rates during the morning peak hours, while industrial areas are associated with more integrated uses, connecting factories and metro stations. Furthermore, parks and public squares encourage both access- and egress-integrated use during peak times. Transportation facility features, including bus stops and dedicated bike lanes, are positively related to integrated use, while areas with dense metro distribution and main streets with many intersections are negatively related. Transfer distance also plays a crucial and negative role in integrated use. In addition, metro stations that are closer to the city center with a higher number of passengers are more likely to be integrated with bike-sharing. These findings can be used to collectively facilitate a connection between cycling and metro transit by creating a bicycle-friendly environment.     

Real time transit demand prediction capturing station interactions and impact of special events

Demand for public transportation is highly affected by passengers’ experience and the level of service provided. Thus, it is vital for transit agencies to deploy adaptive strategies to respond to changes in demand or supply in a timely manner, and prevent unwanted deterioration in service quality. In this paper, a real time prediction methodology, based on univariate and multivariate state-space models, is developed to predict the short-term passenger arrivals at transit stations. A univariate state-space model is developed at the station level. Through a hierarchical clustering algorithm with correlation distance, stations with similar demand patterns are identified. A dynamic factor model is proposed for each cluster, capturing station interdependencies through a set of common factors. Both approaches can model the effect of exogenous events (such as football games). Ensemble predictions are then obtained by combining the outputs from the two models, based on their respective accuracy. We evaluate these models using data from the 32 stations on the Central line of the London Underground (LU), operated by Transport for London (TfL). The results indicate that the proposed methodology performs well in predicting short-term station arrivals for the set of test days. For most stations, ensemble prediction has the lowest mean error, as well as the smallest range of error, and exhibits more robust performance across the test days.     

Development of destination choice model with pairwise district-level constants using taxi GPS data

In this paper, a destination choice model with pairwise district-level constants is proposed for trip distribution based on a nearly complete OD trip matrix in a region. It is found that the coefficients are weakly identified in a destination choice model with pairwise zone-level constants. Thus, a destination choice model with pairwise district-level constants is then proposed and an iterative algorithm is developed for model estimation. Herein, the “district” means a spatial aggregation of a number of zones. The proposed model is demonstrated through simulation experiments. Then, destination choice models with and without pairwise district-level constants are estimated based on GPS data of taxi passenger trips collected during morning peak hours within the Inner Ring Road of Shanghai, China. The datasets comprise 504,187 trip records and a sample of 10,000 taxi trips for model development. The zones used in the study are actually 961 residents’ committees while the districts are 52 residential districts that are spatial aggregations and upper-level administrative units of residents’ committees. It is found that the estimated value of time dramatically drops after the involvement of district-level constants, indicating that the traditional model tends to overestimate the value of time when ignoring pairwise associations between two zones in trip distribution. The proposed destination choice model can ensure its predicted trip OD matrix to match the observed one at district level. Thus, the proposed model has potential to be widely applied for trip distribution under the situation where a complete OD trip matrix can be observed.     

Guaranteed prediction and estimation of the state of a road network

The paper presents an algorithm for the prediction and estimation of the state of a road network comprising freeways and arterials, described by a Cell Transmission Model (CTM). CTM divides the network into a collection of links. Each link is characterized by its fundamental diagram, which relates link speed to link density. The state of the network is the vector of link densities. The state is observed through measurements of speed and flow on some links. Demand is specified by the volume of vehicles entering the network at some links, and by split ratios according to which vehicles are routed through the network. There is model uncertainty: the parameters of the fundamental diagram are uncertain. There is uncertainty in the demand around the nominal forecast. Lastly, the measurements are uncertain. The uncertainty in each model parameter, demand, and measurement is specified by an interval. Given measurements over a time interval [0, t] and a horizon τ ? 0, the algorithm computes a set of states with the guarantee that the actual state at time (t + τ) will lie in this set, consistent with the given measurements. In standard terminology the algorithm is a state prediction or an estimate accordingly as τ > 0 or =0. The flow exiting a link may be controlled by an open- or closed-loop controller such as a signal or ramp meter. An open-loop controller does not change the algorithm, indeed it may make the system more predictable by tightening density bounds downstream of the controller. In the feedback case, the value of the control depends on the estimated state bounds, and the algorithm is extended to compute the range of possible closed-loop control values. The algorithm is used in a proposed design of a decision support system for the I-80 integrated corridor.     

Hierarchical travel demand estimation using multiple data sources: A forward and backward propagation algorithmic framework on a layered computational graph

Aiming to develop a theoretically consistent framework to estimate travel demand using multiple data sources, this paper first proposes a multi-layered Hierarchical Flow Network (HFN) representation to structurally model different levels of travel demand variables including trip generation, origin/destination matrices, path/link flows, and individual behavior parameters. Different data channels from household travel surveys, smartphone type devices, global position systems, and sensors can be mapped to different layers of the proposed network structure. We introduce Big data-driven Transportation Computational Graph (BTCG), alternatively Beijing Transportation Computational Graph, as the underlying mathematical modeling tool to perform automatic differentiation on layers of composition functions. A feedforward passing on the HFN sequentially implements 3 steps of the traditional 4-step process: trip generation, spatial distribution estimation, and path flow-based traffic assignment, respectively. BTCG can aggregate different layers of partial first-order gradients and use the back-propagation of “loss errors” to update estimated demand variables. A comparative analysis indicates that the proposed methods can effectively integrate different data sources and offer a consistent representation of demand. The proposed methodology is also evaluated under a demonstration network in a Beijing subnetwork.     

On activity-based network design problems

This paper examines network design where OD demand is not known a priori, but is the subject of responses in household or user itinerary choices to infrastructure improvements. Using simple examples, we show that falsely assuming that household itineraries are not elastic can result in a lack in understanding of certain phenomena; e.g., increasing traffic even without increasing economic activity due to relaxing of space–time prism constraints, or worsening of utility despite infrastructure investments in cases where household objectives may conflict. An activity-based network design problem is proposed using the location routing problem (LRP) as inspiration. The bilevel formulation includes an upper level network design and shortest path problem while the lower level includes a set of disaggregate household itinerary optimization problems, posed as household activity pattern problem (HAPP) (or in the case with location choice, as generalized HAPP) models. As a bilevel problem with an NP-hard lower level problem, there is no algorithm for solving the model exactly. Simple numerical examples show optimality gaps of as much as 5% for a decomposition heuristic algorithm derived from the LRP. A large numerical case study based on Southern California data and setting suggest that even if infrastructure investments do not result in major changes in link investment decisions compared to a conventional model, the results provide much higher resolution temporal OD information to a decision maker. Whereas a conventional model would output the best set of links to invest given an assumed OD matrix, the proposed model can output the same best set of links, the same daily OD matrix, and a detailed temporal distribution of activity participation and travel from which changes in peak period OD patterns can be observed.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

Assessing network vulnerability of heavy rail systems with the impact of partial node failures

Much of the literature in recent years has examined the vulnerability of transportation networks. To identify appropriate and operational measures of nodal centrality using connectivity in the case of heavy rail systems, this paper presents a set of comprehensive measures in the form of a Degree of Nodal Connection (DNC) index. The DNC index facilitates a reevaluation of nodal criticality among distinct types of transfer stations in heavy rail networks that present a number of multiple lines between stations. Specifically, a new classification of transfer stations—mandatory transfer, non-mandatory transfer, and end transfer—and a new measure for linkages—link degree and total link degree—introduces the characteristics of heavy rail networks when we accurately expose the vulnerability of a node. The concept of partial node failure is also introduced and compare the results of complete node failure scenarios. Four local and global indicators of network vulnerability are derived from the DNC index to assess the vulnerability of major heavy rail networks in the United States. Results indicate that the proposed DNC indexes can inform decision makers or network planners as they explore and compare the resilience of multi-hubs and multi-line networks in a comprehensive but accurate manner regardless of their network sizes.

     

Integrated data-driven modeling to estimate PM2.5 pollution from heavy-duty truck transportation activity over metropolitan area

Based on the national emission inventory data from different countries, heavy-duty trucks are the highest on-road PM_2.5 emitters and their representation is estimated disproportionately using current modeling methods. This study expands current understanding of the impact of heavy-duty truck movement on the overall PM_2.5 pollution in urban areas through an integrated data-driven modeling methodology that could more closely represent the truck transportation activities. A detailed integrated modeling methodology is presented in the paper to estimate urban truck related PM_2.5 pollution by using a robust spatial regression-based truck activity model, the mobile source emission and Gaussian dispersion models. In this research, finely resolved spatial–temporal emissions were calculated using bottom-up approach, where hourly truck activity and detailed truck-class specific emissions rates are used as inputs. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati urban area was selected as a case study site and the proposed truck model was used with U.S. EPA’s MOVES and AERMOD models. The heavy-duty truck released PM_2.5 pollution is estimated using observed concentrations at the urban air quality monitoring stations. The monthly air quality trend estimated using our methodology matches very well with the observed trend at two different continuous monitoring stations with Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient of 0.885. Based on emission model results, it is found that 71 percent of the urban mobile-source PM_2.5 emissions are caused by trucks and also 21 percent of the urban overall ambient PM_2.5 concentrations can be attributed to trucks in Cincinnati urban area.     

Nonlinear gating control for urban road traffic network using the network fundamental diagram

This work proposes a nonlinear model predictive controller for the urban gating problem. The system model is formalized based on a research on existing models of the network fundamental diagram and the perimeter control systems. For the existing models, modifications are suggested: additional state variables are allocated to describe the queue dynamics at the network gates. Using the extended model, a nonlinear model predictive controller is designed offering a ‘non‐greedy’ policy compared with previous, ‘greedy’ gating control designs. The greedy and non‐greedy nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) controllers are compared with a greedy linear feedback proportional‐integral‐derivative (PID) controller in different traffic situations. The proposed non‐greedy NMPC controller outperforms the other two approaches in terms of travel distance performance and queue lengths. The performance results justify the consideration of queue lengths in dynamic modeling, and the use of NMPC approach for controller design. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.