Estimating the marginal cost of railway track renewals using corner solution models

Economic theory advocates marginal cost pricing for efficient utilisation of transport infrastructure. A growing body of literature has emerged on the issue of rail marginal infrastructure wear and tear costs, but the majority of the work is focused on costs for infrastructure maintenance. Railway track renewals are a substantial part of an infrastructure manager’s budget, but in disaggregated statistical analyses they cause problems for traditional regression models since there is a piling up of values of the dependent variable at zero. Previous econometric work has sought to circumvent the problem by aggregation in some way. In this paper we instead apply corner solution models to disaggregate (track-section) data, including the zero observations. We derive track renewal cost elasticities with respect to traffic volumes and in turn marginal renewal costs using Swedish railway renewal data over the period 1999–2009. This paper is the first attempt in the literature to apply corner solution models, and in particular the two-part model, to disaggregate renewal cost data in railways. It is also the first paper that we are aware of to report usage elasticities specifically for renewal costs and therefore adds important new evidence to the previous literature where there is a paucity of studies on renewals and considerable uncertainty over the effects of rail traffic on renewal costs. In the Swedish context, we find that the inclusion of marginal track renewal costs in the track access pricing regime, which currently only reflects marginal maintenance costs, would add substantially to the existing track access charge. EU legislation requires that access charges reflect the ‘costs directly incurred as a result of operating the train service’, which should include a marginal renewal cost component. This change would also increase the cost recovery ratio of the Swedish infrastructure manager, thus meeting a policy objective of the national government.     

Field investigation and parametric study of greenhouse gas emissions from railway plain-line renewals

Railway transportation is becoming increasingly important in many parts of the world for mass transport of passengers and freight. This study was prompted by the industry’s need to systemically estimate greenhouse gas emissions from railway construction and maintenance activities. In this paper, the emphasis is placed on plain-line railway maintenance and renewal projects. The objective of this study was to reduce the uncertainties and assumptions of previous studies based on ballasted track maintenance and renewal projects. A field-based data collection was carried out on plain-line ballasted track renewals. The results reveal that the emissions from the materials contribute more than nine times the CO₂-e emissions than the machines used in the renewal projects. The results show that extending the lifespan of rail infrastructure assets through maintenance is beneficial in terms of reducing CO₂-e emissions. Analysis was then carried out using the field data. Then the results were compared to two ballastless track alternatives. The results show that CO₂-e emissions per metre from ballasted track were the least overall, however, the maintenance CO₂-e emissions are greater than those of ballastless tracks over the infrastructure lifespan, with ballasted track maintenance emitting more CO₂-e emissions at the 30 and 60 year intervals and the end of life when compared to the ballastless track types. The outcome of the study can provide decision makers, construction schedulers, environmental planners and project planners with reasonably accurate GHG emission estimates that can be used to plan, forecast and reduce emissions for plain-line renewal projects.     

A decision support approach for condition-based maintenance of rails based on big data analysis

In this paper, a decision support approach is proposed for condition-based maintenance of rails relying on expert-based systems. The methodology takes into account both the actual conditions of the rails (using axle box acceleration measurements and rail video images) and the prior knowledge of the railway track. The approach provides an integrated estimation of the rail health conditions to support the maintenance decisions for a given time period. An expert-based system is defined to analyse interdependency between the prior knowledge of the track (defined by influential factors) and the surface defect measurements over the rail. When the rail health conditions is computed, the different track segments are prioritized, in order to facilitate grinding planning of those segments of rail that are prone to critical conditions. In this paper, real-life rail conditions measurements from the track Amersfoort-Weert in the Dutch railway network are used to show the benefits of the proposed methodology. The results support infrastructure managers to analyse the problems in their rail infrastructure and to efficiently perform a condition-based maintenance decision making.     

A proposal for cost-related and market-oriented train running charges

This paper examines some key aspects of a charging system for promoting railway transport, including charges reflecting a clear relationship with costs (transparency) and charges reflecting the quality of the infrastructure manager's service. Train running charges recover track-related costs and can help to develop a charging system that meets these requirements. To orient train running charges to the market, a method for processing track maintenance and renewal costs is proposed whereby the quality of the service provided by an infrastructure is measured according to its utility to the railway undertaking. To achieve transparency, a single indicator is used for cost planning and the subsequent levying of costs on railway undertakings. The paper includes an example of how proposed train running charges would be calculated according to data from 14 European countries. The example shows that short-distance trains generate the lowest maintenance and renewal costs, followed by long-distance trains and freight trains.     

A new Swedish railroad policy: Separation of infrastructure and traffic production

In 1988 the Swedish nationalized railway company was separated into two separate entities, the Swedish State Railways in charge of running rail transport and the National Rail Administration, responsible for investment in and maintenance of rail infrastructure. This paper describes institutional aspects of this new railway policy. It also specifies methodological and practical problems in the computation of social marginal costs for using rail as well as road infrastructure. It is furthermore made likely that present fuel charges on road vehicles, but not the new rail use charges, are insufficient to cover costs for infrastructure use.     

National policy towards cars: Hong Kong

The Hong Kong transport policy objective is simply, mobility. With this the automobile must conform. A confined land area, difficult to develop, has absorbed excessive immigration and must now service a dynamic entrepreneurial economy.

Transport infrastructure based on major planning studies is created through government capital and is backed by careful legislation, effective administration and private sector participation. The problem is that overall expansion is even faster: widespread urban renewal—roads cannot equally expand; enormous New Territories New Towns—people still want to move in and out so the need for more transport accelerates. Over ten million trips daily are made by 5.5 million people. The answers cannot be more and more private cars: it must be promoting the most effective use of major transport investments, where possible off roads, and the mass carriers on roads. The need to curb congestion by containing escalating car numbers (especially as so far only 17% of households have access to an automobile) led in May 1982 to imposition of severe taxes on ownership. The ultimate and equitable objective is to control usage. Road pricing may be the answer.

In Hong Kong the private cars is part only of a complex strategy including metro, rail, bus, minibus, ferry, taxi and tram. The car cannot take precedence.     

High-Speed Rail Operations on an Existing Network: An Assessment Model for China

High-speed rail operations have the potential to reduce the long-term decline in rail passenger travel demand for the medium to long distance inter-urban markets. Such decline has been evident through most of the industrialized countries where air and road transport tend to be the dominant modes. In China, the operations of long distance high-speed rail on fully dedicated track is not very easy to implement, due to the high proportion of passengers who travel between high-speed and conventional railways. An alternative approach would be to allow for mixed operations with trains of various speeds on the same track. This article puts forward a simulation model designed to allow an evaluation of the most efficient distance for high-speed rail operations under mixed train speed scenarios. The model takes into account the main operating parameters such as passenger volumes, train speeds, capital and maintenance costs, train operating costs and energy consumption. The distance of high-speed train running on conventional rail that will yield the most economic benefit can be estimated using the model. The article includes the results of using the model for a specific example. It is concluded that large-scale high-speed trains have the potential to be successfully operated on conventional rail networks.     

Assessing the CO2 impact of current and future rail track in the UK

This paper investigates the CO₂ impact of current and future UK rail track and estimates the material, process and transport emissions associated with construction, maintenance and end-of-life activities for designs at high and low traffic loads. Analysis shows that for current track configurations, track with concrete sleepers has the lowest CO₂ impact, followed by steel, hardwood and softwood. Several potential future rail track designs have been analysed including embedded rail and double and quadruple-headed rail. All future track designs have a lower impact than current designs, but this improvement is more marked at high traffic loads. Up to a 40% reduction in CO₂ impact could be achieved if the UK rail network was to move from conventional track design to a double-headed embedded rail design. Key levers for reducing the CO₂ impact of track are identified as service life extension, traffic load reduction and the selection of low impact track designs.     

Optimization of emergency crossovers and signals for emergency operations in rail rapid transit

This paper presents a methodology for designing rail transit systems to meet operating requirements when track maintenance or failure cause sections of tracks to be unavailable for service. The methodology can be also used to establish the requirements for the continuity of operations during construction. The main objective of the paper is to develop a tool which performs trade-offs between system costs and level of services during emergencies/construction. Several alternatives, including various signal and control systems, number and types of crossovers and corresponding operating strategies, are developed and evaluated against capital investments. Operating measures and strategies for the selected alternative can be recommended before the design phase is completed, because the designer, by using this methodology, is aware of the capacities attained during emergencies and construction.     

Rail track infrastructure ownership: investment and operational issues

As privatisation of railway systems reach the political agendas in a number of countries, the separation of track infrastructure from train operations is seen as providing the vehicle which will improve profitability within the rail industry. This paper deals with three main issues related to such separation within a freight railway focus, namely: investment appraisal; track standards and maintenance; and train operating performance. The conflicts of interest between the owners of track and their client operators are discussed in detail. Costs related to track capacity and congestion need to be taken into account, given that additional trains are likely to lead to increased risk of delays to existing services. The paper discusses the use of a travel time reliability model to estimate the additional costs imposed on the system through the introduction of specific train services.It is concluded that investment in individual elements of railway infrastructure must be integrated with the overall financial and customer service strategies of both operators and owners. As an alternative to current practices, a hybrid model of track ownership is put forward here. Under such a model, a joint-venture company with equity from the main ÒplayersÓ would be owner of track. This would allow some of the benefits of vertical integration to be retained, whilst providing fair access to new operators.     

An econometric analysis of motorway renewal costs in Germany

The analysis of motorway renewal costs presented in this paper was driven by two research questions: First, to analyse the economic process of motorway renewal work and to identify whether there exist economies of scale; and second to identify the influence of traffic volume on renewal costs and to derive an estimate of marginal infrastructure costs as part of optimal road user charges. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data for motorway renewal costs and traffic volume in Germany during the period 1980–1999. Two translog models were estimated, each of them including the factor input prices for labour, material and capital, and a set of regional dummy variables as well as dummy variables for the type of material used for renewal. The first model includes in addition to these variables the sqm of renewed road as explanatory variable. The second model was constructed to analyse the relationship between traffic volume and renewal costs and contains the average annual daily traffic volume of trucks and passenger cars as independent variables. Two main results were derived from the models: First, motorway renewal work is characterised by substantial economies of scale. Second, the relationship between renewal costs and traffic volume is expressed by a cost elasticity, i.e., the ratio between marginal and average costs, which ranges from 0.05 up to 1.17 with a digressive increase of marginal costs.     

Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet -- surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD=38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.     

Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget

As urban areas face increasing demands for new transport infrastructure to promote a sustainable future with an increasing reality of constrained government budgets, the debate on whether we should focus on rail or bus-based investments continues unabated in many jurisdictions. Associated with the debate is an emotional (or ideological) bias by communities in favour of one mode, especially rail, which carries much sway at the political level as if there is no budget constraint. This paper presents a stated choice experiment to investigate this context as two unlabelled options described by 20 potential drivers of community preferences for improved public transport, where each choice scenario is conditioned on an estimated construction cost and a total annual transport infrastructure budget for the relevant geographical jurisdiction. This is followed by a labelling of each alternative to reveal whether the option is bus rapid transit (BRT) or light rail (LRT) and to establish whether this additional information influences preference revision. Data is collected in all eight capital cities of Australia in mid 2014. Mixed logit models with heteroscedastic conditioning in terms of the cost of the project infrastructure and whether the alternative is labelled BRT or LRT, provide new evidence on the nature and extent of community modal bias in a budget-constrained choice setting. The conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, if a fully compensatory choice rule is assumed (as is common in all previous modal comparison studies), LRT is predominantly preferred over BRT despite budgetary constraints, similarities in quality of service attributes and the opportunity to choose a greater network coverage for a given construction cost. However, when we allow for attribute non-attendance (a semi-compensatory choice rule), the modal bias is no longer a significant driver of preferences.     

Modeling a rail transit alignment considering different objectives

An optimization model for station locations for an on-ground rail transit line is developed using different objective functions of demand and cost as both influence the planning of a rail transit alignment. A microscopic analysis is performed to develop a rail transit alignment in a given corridor considering a many-to-one travel demand pattern. A variable demand case is considered as it replicates a realistic scenario for planning a rail transit line. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) based on a Geographical Information System (GIS) database is developed to optimize the station locations for a rail transit alignment. The first objective is to minimize the total system cost per person, which is a function of user cost, operator cost, and location cost. The second objective is to maximize the ridership or the service coverage of the rail transit alignment. The user cost per person is minimized separately as the third objective because the user cost is one of the most important decision-making factors for planning a transit system from the users’ perspective. A transit planner can make an informed decision between various alternatives based on the results obtained using different objective functions. The model is applied in a case study in the Washington, DC area. The optimal locations and sequence of stations obtained using the three objective functions are presented and a comparative study between the results obtained is shown in the paper. In future works we will develop a combinatorial optimization problem using the aforementioned objectives for the rail transit alignment planning and design problem.     

Leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory to build climate resilience in transport infrastructure

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to transport infrastructure that include disrupted operations, reduced lifespan and increased reconstruction and maintenance costs. Efforts to decrease the vulnerability of transport networks have been largely limited to understanding projected risks through governance and administrative efforts. Where physical adaptation measures have been implemented, these have typically aligned with a traditional “engineering resilience” approach of increasing the strength and rigidity of assets to withstand the impacts of climate change and maintain a stable operating state. Such systems have limited agility and are susceptible to failure from “surprise events”. Addressing these limitations, this paper considers an alternate approach to resilience, inspired by natural ecosystems that sense conditions in real-time, embrace multi-functionality and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. Such systems embrace and thrive on unpredictability and instability. This paper synthesises key literature in climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience theory to propose a shift in paradigm for transport infrastructure design, construction and operation, towards engineered systems that can transform, evolve and internally manage vulnerability. The authors discuss the opportunity for biomimicry (innovation inspired by nature) as an enabling discipline for supporting resilient and regenerative infrastructure, introducing three potential tools and frameworks. The authors conclude the importance of leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory, building on the achievements in engineering resilience over the past century. These findings have immediate practical applications in redefining resilience approaches for new transport infrastructure projects and transport infrastructure renewal.     

Cost effective future derailment mitigation techniques for rail freight traffic management in Europe

Safe and reliable traffic management is vital for uninterrupted and successful operation of the European rail network, where mixed traffic (i.e. freight and passenger) services are run. Although rail freight derailment is infrequent, its consequences can be severe and may result in different forms of costs, including infrastructure; rolling stock; traffic disruptions; injuries and fatalities. The objective of this research paper is to conduct a cost benefit analysis (CBA) to identify cost effective mitigation techniques for efficient rail freight traffic management in Europe, by 2050. Reviewing previous derailments and studies, eight sets of derailment causes are analysed and, for each of them, sets of mitigation techniques are aimed at for their alleviation. The study finds that the highest cumulative costs of derailment are associated with ‘wheel failure’, while the lowest cumulative cost is identified for ‘excessive track width’. Regarding mitigation techniques, the lowest cumulative benefits are demonstrated for ‘track height’ interventions, whereas ‘wheel failure’ alleviation demonstrates the highest benefits, in value terms (all by 2050). In most cases, the benefit to cost ratio did not exceed 2.6; in two cases (‘track height’ and ‘rail failures’) the ratio remained below 1 – a negative outcome where cost is higher than benefit. The study suggests that the most cost-efficient interventions are those applied to ‘hot axle box and axle rupture’ and ‘spring and suspension failure’.     

Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China

This article develops a multi-dimensions measurement of transport infrastructure and examines the linkage between transport infrastructure and regional economic growth. A panel data model is estimated using data from a sample of 31 Chinese provinces from 1998 to 2007. The results provide strong evidence that transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth. Both land transport and water transport infrastructure have strong and significant impacts, while the contribution of airway transport infrastructure is weak. Furthermore, land transport infrastructure contributes more to economic growth in locations with poor land transport infrastructure, while the investment in water transport infrastructure contribute positively to economic growth only after the investment scale exceeds a threshold level. These results are robust to a variety of alternative methods, the exclusion of possible outliers, and consideration of endogeneity. A retrospective analysis shows that uneven distribution of transport infrastructure is an important reason behind economic disparities across Chinese regions.     

Comprehensive pavement maintenance strategies for road networks through optimal allocation of resources

In order to maintain a growing road infrastructure at some minimum level of service, substantial resources are required on a recurrent basis. Of late, the available resources can no longer meet all the maintenance and rehabilitation demand even in wealthy nations. Hence, there is a need to develop a tool which will optimally allocate these resources in order to keep the road infrastructure as ‘healthy’ as possible. Further, this tool must acknowledge that maintenance needs are not only restricted to structural aspects but also extend to the functional- and safety-related aspects of a road. Here, such a comprehensive optimization tool is developed which when used will optimally allocate resources in order to maintain a healthy (from structural, functional, and safety standpoints) road network. The problem of determining the optimum maintenance and rehabilitation activities for individual road sections is formulated as a linear integer programming problem. Results from a case study using the proposed method show that the suggested maintenance and rehabilitation plans make sense from engineering and economic considerations.     

When are subsidies to trans-European network projects justified?

The trans-European transport network (TEN-T) encompasses the major planned transport infrastructure in Europe, ranging from high speed rail to port infrastructure. Projects in this category are considered priority projects and receive European subsidies; but these have been insufficient to get these projects off the ground. This paper addresses two research questions. First, it sketches the basic economics of cross-boundary infrastructure projects: what pricing and investment policies can we expect, what is the role of through traffic and high fixed costs of infrastructure? Second, it examines briefly what lessons the EU could draw from the experience of other existing federal funding institutions like the US and Germany. These ideas are used to propose a new subsidy scheme for the TEN-T projects.     

Rail line length in a crosstown corridor with many-to-many demand

An analytical model that determines the optimal location and length of rail line along a crosstown transportation corridor with the objective of minimizing the total transportation cost is presented. A general, many-to-many passenger demand pattern is considered. The objective function, which includes the rail and bus riding costs, rail and bus operating costs, rail fleet costs and rail line costs, is minimized by using the classical optimization method with the aid of a computer program developed for the model. The model is applied to the Northwest-South transportation corridor in Calgary, Alberta, and the sensitivity of the optimal rail line location and length to the unit cost and demand parameters at their reasonable ranges is tested. It is found that although the total passenger demand, unit rail line cost, and unit bus operating cost have greater influence than the unit bus and rail riding costs, and unit rail fleet and operating costs, the optimal line length is generally insensitive to all these parameters. It is also found that the length of the existing LRT line in the corridor is comparable to the optimal line length obtained from the model, but the existing line should be extended further south in order to meet the heavier demand in that direction optimally.