Instantaneous communication throughputs of vehicular ad hoc networks

Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) formed by connected vehicles in a traffic stream could be applied to improve safety, mobility, and environmental impacts of a transportation system. In this paper, we present analytical models for the instantaneous communication throughputs of VANETs to measure the efficiency of information propagation under various traffic conditions at a time instant. In particular, we define broadcast and unicast communication throughputs by the wireless channel bandwith multiplied by the average probabilities that one vehicle is a successful receiver and sender in a VAENT, respectively. With a protocol communication model, we derive formulas to determine the probabilities for an equipped vehicle to be a successful broadcast receiver and a successful unicast receiver/sender, and obtain broadcast and unicast throughputs along discrete and continuous traffic streams. We further examine the impacts on communication throughputs of the transmission range and the interference range of dedicated short range communication devices as well as the market penetration rate of equipped vehicles and the percentage of senders. Finally, we investigate the influence of shock waves on communication throughputs.     

Modeling the information flow propagation wave under vehicle-to-vehicle communications

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications under the connected vehicle context have the potential to provide new paradigms to enhance the safety, mobility and environmental sustainability of surface transportation. Understanding the information propagation characteristics in space and time is a key enabler for V2V-based traffic systems. Most existing analytical models assume instantaneous propagation of information flow through multi-hop communications. Such an assumption ignores the spatiotemporal relationships between the traffic flow dynamics and V2V communication constraints. This study proposes a macroscopic two-layer model to characterize the information flow propagation wave (IFPW). The traffic flow propagation is formulated in the lower layer as a system of partial differential equations based on the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards model. Due to their conceptual similarities, the upper layer adapts and modifies a spatial Susceptible-Infected epidemic model to describe information dissemination between V2V-equipped vehicles using integro-differential equations. A closed-form solution is derived for the IFPW speed under homogeneous conditions. The IFPW speed is numerically determined for heterogeneous conditions. Numerical experiments illustrate the impact of traffic density and market penetration of V2V-equipped vehicles on the IFPW speed. The proposed model can capture the spatiotemporal relationships between the traffic and V2V communication layers, and aid in the design of novel information propagation strategies to manage traffic conditions under V2V-based traffic systems.     

A network level connectivity robustness measure for connected vehicle environments

This study introduces a new CONnectivity ROBustness model (CONROB) to assess vehicle-to-vehicle communication in connected vehicle (CV) environments. CONROB is based on Newton’s universal law of gravitation and accounts for multiple factors affecting the connectivity in CV environments such as market penetration, wireless transmission range, spatial distribution of vehicles relative to each other, the spatial propagation of the wireless signal, and traffic density. The proposed methodology for the connectivity robustness calculation in CONROB accounts for the Link Expiration Time (LET) and the Route Expiration Time (RET) that are reflected in the stability of links between each two adjacent vehicles and the expiration time of communication routes between vehicles. Using a 117 sq-km (45-square mile) network in Washington County, located west of Portland city, Oregon, a microscopic simulation model (VISSIM) was built to verify CONROB model. A total of 45 scenarios were simulated for different traffic densities generated from five different traffic demand levels, three levels of market penetration (5%, 15%, and 25%), and three transmission range values [76 (250), 152 (500), and 305 (1000) m (ft)]. The simulation results show that the overall robustness increases as the market penetration increases, given the same transmission range, and relative traffic density. Similarly, the overall connectivity robustness increases as the relative traffic density increases for the same market penetration. More so, the connectivity robustness becomes more sensitive to the relative traffic density at higher values of transmission range and market penetration. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to show the significant effect of relative traffic density, transmission range, and market penetration on the robustness measure. The results of the study provide an evidence of the ability of the model to capture the effect of the different factors on the connectivity between vehicles, which provides a viable tool for assessing CV environments.     

Influence of connected and autonomous vehicles on traffic flow stability and throughput

The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles will bring changes to the highway driving environment. Connected vehicle technology provides real-time information about the surrounding traffic condition and the traffic management center’s decisions. Such information is expected to improve drivers’ efficiency, response, and comfort while enhancing safety and mobility. Connected vehicle technology can also further increase efficiency and reliability of autonomous vehicles, though these vehicles could be operated solely with their on-board sensors, without communication. While several studies have examined the possible effects of connected and autonomous vehicles on the driving environment, most of the modeling approaches in the literature do not distinguish between connectivity and automation, leaving many questions unanswered regarding the implications of different contemplated deployment scenarios. There is need for a comprehensive acceleration framework that distinguishes between these two technologies while modeling the new connected environment. This study presents a framework that utilizes different models with technology-appropriate assumptions to simulate different vehicle types with distinct communication capabilities. The stability analysis of the resulting traffic stream behavior using this framework is presented for different market penetration rates of connected and autonomous vehicles. The analysis reveals that connected and autonomous vehicles can improve string stability. Moreover, automation is found to be more effective in preventing shockwave formation and propagation under the model’s assumptions. In addition to stability, the effects of these technologies on throughput are explored, suggesting substantial potential throughput increases under certain penetration scenarios.     

Optimization models to characterize the broadcast capacity of vehicular ad hoc networks

Broadcast capacity of the entire network is one of the fundamental properties of vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). It measures how efficiently the information can be transmitted in the network and usually it is limited by the interference between the concurrent transmissions in the physical layer of the network. This study defines the broadcast capacity of vehicular ad hoc network as the maximum successful concurrent transmissions. In other words, we measure the maximum number of packets which can be transmitted in a VANET simultaneously, which characterizes how fast a new message such as a traffic incident can be transmitted in a VANET. Integer programming (IP) models are first developed to explore the maximum number of successful receiving nodes as well as the maximum number of transmitting nodes in a VANET. The models embed an traffic flow model in the optimization problem. Since IP model cannot be efficiently solved as the network size increases, this study develops a statistical model to predict the network capacity based on the significant parameters in the transportation and communication networks. MITSIMLab is used to generate the necessary traffic flow data. Response surface method and linear regression technologies are applied to build the statistical models. Thus, this paper brings together an array of tools to solve the broadcast capacity problem in VANETs. The proposed methodology provides an efficient approach to estimate the performance of a VANET in real-time, which will impact the efficacy of travel decision making.     

Analysis of a cooperative variable speed limit system using microscopic traffic simulation

Variable speed limit systems where variable message signs are used to show speed limits adjusted to the prevailing road or traffic conditions are installed on motorways in many countries. The objectives of variable speed limit system installations are often to decrease the number of accidents and to increase traffic efficiency. Currently, there is an interest in exploring the potential of cooperative intelligent transport systems including communication between vehicles and/or vehicles and the infrastructure. In this paper, we study the potential benefits of introducing infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits in variable speed limit systems. We do this by proposing a cooperative variable speed limit system as an extension of an existing variable speed limit system. In the proposed system, communication between the infrastructure and the vehicles is used to transmit variable speed limits to upstream vehicles before the variable message signs become visible to the drivers. The system is evaluated by the means of microscopic traffic simulation. Traffic efficiency and environmental effects are considered in the analysis. The results of the study show benefits of the infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits for variable speed limit systems in the form of lower acceleration rates and thereby harmonized traffic flow and reduced exhaust emissions.     

Closed-form multiclass cell transmission model enhanced with overtaking,lane-changing,and first-in first-out properties

A novel multiclass macroscopic model is proposed in this article. In order to enhance first-in, first-out property (FIFO) and transmission function in the multiclass traffic modeling, a new multiclass cell transmission model with FIFO property (herein called FM-CTM) is extended from its prior multiclass cell transmission model (M-CTM). Also, to enhance its analytical compactness and resultant computational convenience, FM-CTM is formulated in this paper as a set of closed-form matrix equations. The objective is to improve the accuracy of traffic state estimation by enforcing FIFO property when a fast vehicle cannot overtake a slow vehicle due to a limitation of a single-lane road. Moreover, the proposed model takes into account a different priority for vehicles of each class to move forward through congested road conditions, and that makes the flow calculation independent from their free-flow speeds. Some hypothetical and real-world freeway networks with a constant or varying number of lanes are selected to verify FM-CTM by comparing with M-CTM and the conventional CTM. Observed densities of VISSIM and real-world dataset of I-80 are selected to compare with the simulated densities from the three CTMs. The numerical results show that FM-CTM outperforms the other two models by 15% of accuracy measures in most cases. Therefore, the proposed model is expected to be well applicable to the road network with a mixed traffic and varying number of lanes.     

The process of information propagation in a traffic stream with a general vehicle headway: A revisit

Effective inter-vehicle communication is fundamental to a decentralized traffic information system based on mobile ad hoc vehicle networks. Here we model the information propagation process through inter-vehicle communication when the vehicle spacing follows a general i.i.d. distribution. Equations for the expected value and variance of propagation distance are derived. In addition, we provide simple equations for the expected number of vehicles covered and the probability distribution of propagation distance. This research advances on an earlier study where the vehicle spacing is assumed to follow an exponential distribution. This paper generalizes the earlier results and potentially enables a design for robust information propagation by allowing for examination of the impact of different headway distributions. Within the new modeling framework, we also compute connectivity between two vehicles.     

Congestion avoidance in city traffic

The number of vehicles on the road (worldwide) is constantly increasing, causing traffic jams and congestion especially in city traffic. Anticipatory vehicle routing techniques have thus far been applied to fairly small networked traffic scenarios and uniform traffic. We note here a number of limitations of these techniques and present a routing strategy on the assumption of a city map that has a large number of nodes and connectivity and where the vehicles possess highly varying speed capabilities. A scenario of operation with such characteristics has not previously been sufficiently studied in the literature. Frequent short‐term planning is preferred as compared with infrequent planning of the complete map. Experimental results show an efficiency boost when single‐lane overtaking is allowed, traffic signals are accounted for and every vehicle prefers to avoid high traffic density on a road by taking an alternative route. Comparisons with optimistic routing, pessimistic routing and time message channel routing are given. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic model of traffic flow: Theoretical foundations

In a variety of applications of traffic flow, including traffic simulation, real-time estimation and prediction, one requires a probabilistic model of traffic flow. The usual approach to constructing such models involves the addition of random noise terms to deterministic equations, which could lead to negative traffic densities and mean dynamics that are inconsistent with the original deterministic dynamics. This paper offers a new stochastic model of traffic flow that addresses these issues. The source of randomness in the proposed model is the uncertainty inherent in driver gap choice, which is represented by random state dependent vehicle time headways. A wide range of time headway distributions is allowed. From the random time headways, counting processes are defined, which represent cumulative flows across cell boundaries in a discrete space and continuous time conservation framework. We show that our construction implicitly ensures non-negativity of traffic densities and that the fluid limit of the stochastic model is consistent with cell transmission model (CTM) based deterministic dynamics.     

Simple analytical models for estimating the queue lengths from probe vehicles at traffic signals

As mobile traffic sensor technology gets more attention, mathematical models are being developed that utilize this new data type in various intelligent transportation systems applications. This study introduces simple analytical estimation models for queue lengths from tracked or probe vehicles at traffic signals using stochastic modeling approach. Developed models estimate cycle-to-cycle queue lengths by using primary parameters such as arrival rate, probe vehicle proportions, and signal phase durations. Valuable probability distributions and moment generating functions for probe information types are formulated. Fully analytical closed-form expressions are given for the case ignoring the overflow queue and approximation models are presented for the overflow case. Derived models are compared with the results from VISSIM-microscopic simulation. Analytical steady-state and cycle-to-cycle estimation errors are also derived. Numerical examples are shown for the errors of these estimators that change with probe vehicle market penetration levels, arrival rates, and volume-to-capacity ratios.     

Dynamics of connected vehicle systems with delayed acceleration feedback

In this paper, acceleration-based connected cruise control (CCC) is proposed to increase roadway traffic mobility. CCC is designed to be able to use acceleration signals received from multiple vehicles ahead through wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. We consider various connectivity structures in heterogeneous platoons comprised of human-driven and CCC vehicles. We show that inserting a few CCC vehicles with appropriately designed gains and delays into the flow, one can stabilize otherwise string unstable vehicle platoons. Exploiting the flexibility of ad-hoc connectivity, CCC can be applied in a large variety of traffic scenarios. Moreover, using acceleration feedback in a selective manner, CCC provides robust performance and remains scalable for large systems of connected vehicles. Our conclusions are verified by simulations at the nonlinear level.     

A static network level model for the information propagation in vehicular ad hoc networks

In this paper, we present a network level model to describe the information propagation in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). The approach utilizes an existing one-dimensional propagation model to evaluate information travel times on the individual arcs of the network. Traffic flow characteristics are evaluated by a static traffic assignment model. Upper and lower bounds are developed for the time of information propagation between two nodes in a network. We show that the bounds yield good (typically within 5%) estimates of the true time lag for the lower penetration rates (<10%), which makes them particularly useful in the initial deployment stages of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. Furthermore, our lower bound reveals that – quite surprisingly – for sufficiently low penetration rates, more equipped vehicles on the road does not necessarily promote the fast propagation of information. As an application of the bounds, we formulate a resource allocation model in which communication devices can be installed along roads to promote wireless propagation. A set of efficient heuristic algorithms is developed to solve the resource allocation problem. Numerical results are given throughout.     

Tracking the position of neighboring vehicles using wireless communications

We investigate four communication schemes for Cooperative Active Safety System (CASS) and compare their performance with application level reliability metrics. The four schemes are periodic communication, periodic communication with model, variable communication, and variable communication with repetition. CASS uses information communicated from neighboring vehicles via wireless network in order to actively evaluate driving situations and provide warnings or other forms of assistance to drivers. In CASS, we assume that vehicles are equipped with a GPS receiver, a Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) transceiver, and in-vehicle sensors. The messages exchanged between vehicles convey position, speed, heading, and other vehicle kinematics. This information is broadcast to all neighbors within a specified communication range. Existing literature surmises that in order for CASS to be effective, it may need a vehicle to broadcast messages periodically as often as every 100 ms. In this paper, we introduce the concept of running a kinematic model in-between message transmissions as a means of reducing the communication rate. We use traffic and network simulators to compare the performance of the four schemes. Our performance measure metrics include communication losses as well as average position errors.     

Solving the User Optimum Privately Owned Automated Vehicles Assignment Problem (UO-POAVAP): A model to explore the impacts of self-driving vehicles on urban mobility

Interest in vehicle automation has been growing in recent years, especially with the very visible Google car project. Although full automation is not yet a reality there has been significant research on the impacts of self-driving vehicles on traffic flows, mainly on interurban roads. However, little attention has been given to what could happen to urban mobility when all vehicles are automated. In this paper we propose a new method to study how replacing privately owned conventional vehicles with automated ones affects traffic delays and parking demand in a city. The model solves what we designate as the User Optimum Privately Owned Automated Vehicles Assignment Problem (UO-POAVAP), which dynamically assigns family trips in their automated vehicles in an urban road network from a user equilibrium perspective where, in equilibrium, households with similar trips should have similar transport costs. Automation allows a vehicle to travel without passengers to satisfy multiple household trips and, if needed, to park itself in any of the network nodes to benefit from lower parking charges. Nonetheless, the empty trips can also represent added congestion in the network. The model was applied to a case study based on the city of Delft, the Netherlands. Several experiments were done, comparing scenarios where parking policies and value of travel time (VTT) are changed. The model shows good equilibrium convergence with a small difference between the general costs of traveling for similar families. We were able to conclude that vehicle automation reduces generalized transport costs, satisfies more trips by car and is associated with increased traffic congestion because empty vehicles have to be relocated. It is possible for a city to charge for all street parking and create free central parking lots that will keep total transport costs the same, or reduce them. However, this will add to congestion as traffic competes to access those central nodes. In a scenario where a lower VTT is experienced by the travelers, because of the added comfort of vehicle automation, the car mode share increases. Nevertheless this may help to reduce traffic congestion because some vehicles will reroute to satisfy trips which previously were not cost efficient to be done by car. Placing the free parking in the outskirts is less attractive due to the extra kilometers but with a lower VTT the same private vehicle demand would be attended with the advantage of freeing space in the city center.     

Does traffic-related calibration of car-following models provide accurate estimations of vehicle emissions?

Fuel consumption or pollutant emissions can be assessed by coupling a microscopic traffic flow model with an instantaneous emission model. Traffic models are usually calibrated using goodness of fit indicators related to the traffic behavior. Thus, this paper investigates how such a calibration influences the accuracy of fuel consumption and NOx and PM estimations. Two traffic models are investigated: Newell and Gipps. It appears that the Gipps model provides the closest simulated trajectories when compared to real ones. Interestingly, a reverse ranking is observed for fuel consumption, NOx and PM emissions. For both models, the emissions of single vehicles are very sensitive to the calibration. This is confirmed by a global sensitivity analysis of the Gipps model that shows that non-optimal parameters significantly increase the variance of the outputs. Fortunately, this is no longer the case when emissions are calculated for a group of many vehicles. Indeed, the mean errors for platoons are close to 10% for the Gipps model and always lower than 4% for the Newell model. Another interesting property is that optimal parameters for each vehicle can be replaced by the mean values with no discrepancy for the Newell model and low discrepancies for the Gipps model when calculating the different emission outputs. Finally, this study presents preliminary results that show that multi-objective calibration methods are certainly the best direction for future works on the Gipps model. Indeed, the accuracy of vehicle emissions can be highly improved with negligible counterparts on the traffic model accuracy.     

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication in a heterogeneous wireless network – Performance evaluation

Connected Vehicle Technology (CVT) requires wireless data transmission between vehicles (V2V), and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I). Evaluating the performance of different network options for V2V and V2I communication that ensure optimal utilization of resources is a prerequisite when designing and developing robust wireless networks for CVT applications. Though dedicated short range communication (DSRC) has been considered as the primary communication option for CVT safety applications, the use of other wireless technologies (e.g., Wi-Fi, LTE, WiMAX) allow longer range communications and throughput requirements that could not be supported by DSRC alone. Further, the use of other wireless technology potentially reduces the need for costly DSRC infrastructure. In this research, the authors evaluated the performance of Het-Net consisting of Wi-Fi, DSRC and LTE technologies for V2V and V2I communications. An application layer handoff method was developed to enable Het-Net communication for two CVT applications: traffic data collection, and forward collision warning. The handoff method ensures the optimal utilization of available communication options (i.e., eliminate the need of using multiple communication options at the same time) and corresponding backhaul communication infrastructure depending on the connected vehicle application requirements. Field studies conducted in this research demonstrated that the use of Het-Net broadened the range and coverage of V2V and V2I communications. The use of the application layer handoff technique to maintain seamless connectivity for CVT applications was also successfully demonstrated and can be adopted in future Het-Net supported connected vehicle applications. A long handoff time was observed when the application switches from LTE to Wi-Fi. The delay is largely due to the time required to activate the 802.11 link and the time required for the vehicle to associate with the RSU (i.e., access point). Modifying the application to implement a soft handoff where a new network is seamlessly connected before breaking from the existing network can greatly reduce (or eliminate) the interruption of network service observed by the application. However, the use of a Het-Net did not compromise the performance of the traffic data collection application as this application does not require very low latency, unlike connected vehicle safety applications. Field tests revealed that the handoff between networks in Het-Net required several seconds (i.e., higher than 200 ms required for safety applications). Thus, Het-Net could not be used to support safety applications that require communication latency less than 200 ms. However, Het-Net could provide additional/supplementary connectivity for safety applications to warn vehicles upstream to take proactive actions to avoid problem locations. To validate and establish the findings from field tests that included a limited number of connected vehicles, ns-3 simulation experiments with a larger number of connected vehicles were conducted involving a DSRC and LTE Het-Net scenario. The latency and packet delivery error trend obtained from ns-3 simulation were found to be similar to the field experiment results.     

Analysis of volatility in driving regimes extracted from basic safety messages transmitted between connected vehicles

Driving volatility captures the extent of speed variations when a vehicle is being driven. Extreme longitudinal variations signify hard acceleration or braking. Warnings and alerts given to drivers can reduce such volatility potentially improving safety, energy use, and emissions. This study develops a fundamental understanding of instantaneous driving decisions, needed for hazard anticipation and notification systems, and distinguishes normal from anomalous driving. In this study, driving task is divided into distinct yet unobserved regimes. The research issue is to characterize and quantify these regimes in typical driving cycles and the associated volatility of each regime, explore when the regimes change and the key correlates associated with each regime. Using Basic Safety Message (BSM) data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, two- and three-regime Dynamic Markov switching models are estimated for several trips undertaken on various roadway types. While thousands of instrumented vehicles with vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication systems are being tested, nearly 1.4 million records of BSMs, from 184 trips undertaken by 71 instrumented vehicles are analyzed in this study. Then even more detailed analysis of 43 randomly chosen trips (N = 714,340 BSM records) that were undertaken on various roadway types is conducted. The results indicate that acceleration and deceleration are two distinct regimes, and as compared to acceleration, drivers decelerate at higher rates, and braking is significantly more volatile than acceleration. Different correlations of the two regimes with instantaneous driving contexts are explored. With a more generic three-regime model specification, the results reveal high-rate acceleration, high-rate deceleration, and cruise/constant as the three distinct regimes that characterize a typical driving cycle. Moreover, given in a high-rate regime, drivers’ on-average tend to decelerate at a higher rate than their rate of acceleration. Importantly, compared to cruise/constant regime, drivers’ instantaneous driving decisions are more volatile both in “high-rate” acceleration as well as “high-rate” deceleration regime. The study contributes to analyzing volatility in short-term driving decisions, and how changes in driving regimes can be mapped to a combination of local traffic states surrounding the vehicle.     

Connectivity-based optimization of vehicle route and speed for improved fuel economy

Traditionally, vehicle route planning problem focuses on route optimization based on traffic data and surrounding environment. This paper proposes a novel extended vehicle route planning problem, called vehicle macroscopic motion planning (VMMP) problem, to optimize vehicle route and speed simultaneously using both traffic data and vehicle characteristics to improve fuel economy for a given expected trip time. The required traffic data and neighbouring vehicle dynamic parameters can be collected through the vehicle connectivity (e.g. vehicle-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-infrastructure, vehicle-to-cloud, etc.) developed rapidly in recent years. A genetic algorithm based co-optimization method, along with an adaptive real-time optimization strategy, is proposed to solve the proposed VMMP problem. It is able to provide the fuel economic route and reference speed for drivers or automated vehicles to improve the vehicle fuel economy. A co-simulation model, combining a traffic model based on SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility) with a Simulink powertrain model, is developed to validate the proposed VMMP method. Four simulation studies, based on a real traffic network, are conducted for validating the proposed VMMP: (1) ideal traffic environment without traffic light and jam for studying the fuel economy improvement, (2) traffic environment with traffic light for validating the proposed traffic light penalty model, (3) traffic environment with traffic light and jam for validating the proposed adaptive real-time optimization strategy, and (4) investigating the effect of different powertrain platforms to fuel economy using two different vehicle platforms. Simulation results show that the proposed VMMP method is able to improve vehicle fuel economy significantly. For instance, comparing with the fastest route, the fuel economy using the proposed VMMP method is improved by up to 15%.     

Modelling acceleration decisions in traffic streams with weak lane discipline: A latent leader approach

Acceleration is an important driving manoeuvre that has been modelled for decades as a critical element of the microscopic traffic simulation tools. The state-of-the art acceleration models have however primarily focused on lane based traffic. In lane based traffic, every driver has a single distinct lead vehicle in the front and the acceleration of the driver is typically modelled as a function of the relative speed, position and/or type of the corresponding leader. On the contrary, in a traffic stream with weak lane discipline, the subject driver may have multiple vehicles in the front. The subject driver is therefore subjected to multiple sources of stimulus for acceleration and reacts to the stimulus from the governing leader. However, only the applied accelerations are observed in the trajectory data, and the governing leader is unobserved or latent. The state-of-the-art models therefore cannot be directly applied to traffic streams with weak lane discipline.This prompts the current research where we present a latent leader acceleration model. The model has two components: a random utility based dynamic class membership model (latent leader component) and a class-specific acceleration model (acceleration component). The parameters of the model have been calibrated using detailed trajectory data collected from Dhaka, Bangladesh. Results indicate that the probability of a given front vehicle of being the governing leader can depend on the type of the lead vehicle and the extent of lateral overlap with the subject driver. The estimation results are compared against a simpler acceleration model (where the leader is determined deterministically) and a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit is observed. The proposed models, when implemented in microscopic traffic simulation tools, are expected to result more realistic representation of traffic streams with weak lane discipline.