Traffic safety: Speed limits,strict liability and a km tax

This paper focuses on two specific determinants of accidents: speed and the activity level. If there is no government intervention, people do not take into account the full cost of their driving and they will drive too fast and too much. In our setting, the government can use three instruments to influence the behaviour of people: speed limits, strict liability and a kilometre tax. We analyse the choice of the speed and activity level under the different instruments and determine the optimal combinations. Given our assumptions we never reach the social optimum. The results are illustrated with a numerical example.     

Rural speed limit changes and safety

There is little information in the literature on the relation between rural speed and safety. The wide variation in rural speed limits that are applied in different countries tends to confirm that this relation is poorly understood. The changes in fatal, injury and all accidents that followed a change in the rural speed limit in seven countries were regressed against the change in vehicle mean speed. The results showed that speed significantly affects safety and that within certain limits the relation is linear. The regressions indicated that a 1 km/h reduction in speed will reduce all severities of accidents by between 4 and 5%. It is suggested that part of this reduction is due to a change in economic factors.     

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This article quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the article proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. As an illustrative example, this methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.     

Traffic safety,usability and streetscape effects of new design principles for major urban roads

An important aspect of area-wide traffic calming concepts is the integration of major urban roads, because 70 to 80 percent of all urban accidents occur on major roads. Traffic calming which is primarily based on the locational shift to such main thoroughfares is socially injust, because — in spite of all disturbances on those streets — about one quarter of the urban population live there. Social justice can only be somewhat achieved if the expenditures for traffic calming and streetscaping are not used — as today is most common — for accumulating the advantages in the low traffic side streets, but aimed at a partial balance and compensation for the strains caused by car traffic on the major streets. Some compensatory measures and new design principles will be discussed. Backgrounds are the experience in six German model cities of area-wide traffic calming, several research projects and the discussion about new guidelines for major urban roads. Where traffic and environmental burdens focus, the concentration concept should be extended by compensatory measures. That is the state of discussion in Germany examplified by nine topics.This is an edited version of a speech presented by the author at the International Conference Living and Moving in Cities in Paris, January 1990.     

The insurance institute for highway safety: research arm of the US insurers and servant of the public

Smeed and Haddon were among the first to recognize that deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes were amenable to scientific study and systematic control. In the United States, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety undertakes research on ways to reduce motor vehicle crash losses on the principles developed by these early pioneers. It communicates the scientific findings to a wide audience. Recent Institute research has shown that raising the licensing age and imposing night‐time driving curfews on the youngest drivers can substantially reduce crashes. Institute research has also been influential in leading to a law penalizing states that fail to enact a minimum purchase age of 21 for alcohol. Other Institute work demonstrating that a single, central, high‐mounted brake‐light can greatly reduce the frequency of rear‐end crashes has resulted in federal regulations requiring these lights on all new cars. Field tests of anti‐lacerative windshields have led to changes in federal regulations. Surveys of seat‐belt use under recently passed state laws show that use increases with the laws though to not nearly as high levels as in Great Britain. Long supported by Institute research, air bags are beginning to reappear in the market‐place. Insurance industry support for such activities follows a long tradition of support for loss reduction measures in many fields.     

国外高档大客车安全技术发展现状

在近20年的发展中,国外高档大客车装饰越来越豪华,乘坐舒适性提高越来越明显,附加配置越来越现代,行驶安全性也越来越有保障.特别是在安全技术方面,国外高档大客车已经取得很大的进步`     

Experimental study and modeling of car-following behavior under high speed situation

To investigate the car-following behavior under high speed driving conditions, we performed a set of 11-car-platoon experiments on Hefei airport highway. The formation and growth of oscillations have been analyzed and compared with that in low speed situations. It was found that there is considerable heterogeneity for the same driver over different runs of the experiment. This intra-driver heterogeneity was quantitatively depicted by a new index and incorporated in an enhanced two-dimensional intelligent driver model. Using both the new high-speed and the previous low-speed experimental data, the new and three existing models were calibrated. Simulation results show that the enhanced model outperforms the three existing car-following models that do not take into account this intra-driver heterogeneity in reproducing the essential features of the traffic in the experiments.     

Ship speed optimization: Concepts,models and combined speed-routing scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper’s main contribution is the incorporation of those fundamental parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner’s or charterer’s speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved.     

Mental models of driving and speed: biases,choices and reality

This paper provides a review of research performed by Svenson with colleagues and others work on mental models and their practical implications. Mental models describe how people perceive and think about the world including covariances and relationships between different variables, such as driving speed and time. Research on mental models has detected the time-saving bias [Svenson, O. (1970). A functional measurement approach to intuitive estimation as exemplified by estimated time savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 86, 204–210]. It means that drivers relatively overestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from an already high speed, for example, 90–130?km/h, and underestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from a low speed, for example, 30–45?km/h. In congruence with this finding, mean speed judgments and perceptions of mean speeds are also biased and higher speeds given too much weight and low speeds too little weight in comparison with objective reality. Replacing or adding a new speedometer in the car showing min per km eliminated or weakened the time-saving bias. Information about braking distances at different speeds did not improve overoptimistic judgments of braking capacity, but information about collision speed with an object suddenly appearing on the road did improve judgments of braking capacity. This is relevant to drivers, politicians and traffic regulators.     

Multi-criteria optimization of traffic signals: Mobility,safety, and environment

Two-dimensional multi-objective optimizations have been used for decades for the problems in traffic engineering although only few times so far in the optimization of signal timings. While the other engineering and science disciplines have utilized visualization of 3-dimensional Pareto fronts in the optimization studies, we have not seen many of those concepts applied to traffic signal optimization problems. To bridge the gap in the existing knowledge this study presents a methodology where 3-dimensional Pareto Fronts of signal timings, which are expressed through mobility, (surrogate) safety, and environmental factors, are optimized by use of an evolutionary algorithm. The study uses a segment of 5 signalized intersections in West Valley City, Utah, to test signal timings which provide a balance between mobility, safety and environment. In addition, a set of previous developed signal timing scenarios, including some of the Connected Vehicle technologies such as GLOSA, were conducted to evaluate the quality of the 3-dimensional Pareto front solutions. The results show success of 3-dimensinal Pareto fronts moving towards optimality. The resulting signal timing plans do not show large differences between themselves but all improve on the signal timings from the field, significantly. The commonly used optimization of standard single-objective functions shows robust solutions. The new set of Connected Vehicle technologies also shows promising benefits, especially in the area of reducing inter-vehicular friction. The resulting timing plans from two optimization sets (constrained and unconstrained) show that environmental and safe signal timings coincide but somewhat contradict mobility. Further research is needed to apply similar concepts on a variety of networks and traffic conditions before generalizing findings.     

Speed limits,speed selection and network equilibrium

This paper investigates the local and global impact of speed limits by considering road users’ non-obedient behavior in speed selection. Given a link-specific speed limit scheme, road users will take into account the subjective travel time cost, the perceived crash risk and the perceived ticket risk as determinant factors for their actual speed choice on each link. Homogeneous travelers’ perceived crash risk is positively related to their driving speed. When travelers are heterogeneous, the perceived crash risk is class-specific: different user classes interact with each other and choose their own optimal speed, resulting in a Nash equilibrium speed pattern. With the speed choices on particular roads, travelers make route choices, resulting in user equilibrium in a general network. An algorithm is proposed to solve the user equilibrium problem with heterogeneous users under link-specific speed limits. The models and algorithms are illustrated with numerical examples.     

插电混动汽车在限行政策下的困境与出路

本文通过走访调研的形式,针对限行政策下插电混动汽车因无法及时辨别运行模式而被导致不公平罚款的这一艰难处境,通过对比分析、分组分析等方法分析出插电混动汽车企业当前所面临的困境和受到的限制,并结合调查情况总结出当下插电混动汽车面临如此问题的相应背景状况和具体原因;随后提出创新型的设计理念,改进插电混动汽车在不同条件下行驶状态及时间的指示指标,预期通过设计亮灯装置、时间装置等设备,来显示插电混动汽车行驶中所处的动力模式及相应行驶时间,以期为生产管理部门和相关执法部门提出建议,为今后新能源汽车的生产改进及限行政策的顺利实施提供相应的借鉴与参考.     

低碳经济下城际与城市周边公路交通模式研究

随着人们收入的不断提高及汽车业的快速发展,汽车大量进入普通家庭,但由此产生的碳排放带来的城市环境问题也日益严峻,如何落实低碳交通理念,消减碳排放,已成业界研究的焦点;另外,近年来交通堵塞亦愈发严重,如何解决此问题也一直是困扰人类的难题。本文就如何在低碳经济下发展公路交通进行研究,从城市交通规划设计思想上提出一套全新模式。首先在交通始端将车提至某高度,利用重力和动力使车加速;其次是关键路段,在该段利用倾斜角度使车实现匀速行驶;最后是到达目的地前几公里段,让车行驶在平整公路上以便车流分解。在此思想模式引导下,做出新型公路设计,并对其进行分析。这种创新将丰富低碳交通的理论和方法体系,为建设低碳运输提供重要的思路,对改善现行交通中存在的重大问题,具有一定的现实意义。     

Estimation of nitrogen oxides emissions from petrol and diesel passenger cars by means of on-board monitoring: Effect of vehicle speed,vehicle technology,engine type on emission rates

NO_X emission rates of 13 petrol and 3 diesel passenger cars as a function of average speed from 10 to 120 km/h, emission class (pre-Euro 1 – Euro 5), engine type were investigated by on-board monitoring on roads and highways of St. Petersburg using a portative Testo XXL 300 gas analyzer. The highest level of NO_X emission 0.5–2.5 g/km was inherent to old pre-Euro 1 petrol cars without a catalytic converter. NO_X emissions rates of Euro 1 and Euro 2 petrol cars changed within 0.15–0.9 g/km, Euro 3 – 0.015–0.27 g/km, Euro 4 – 0.013–0.1 g/km, Euro 5 – 0.002–0.043 g/km. Euro 3 – Euro 4 petrol cars generally satisfied corresponding NO_X Emission Standards (ES), except cold-start period, Euro 5 petrol cars did not exceed ES. Warmed, stabilized engines of Euro 3 – Euro 5 petrol cars showed 5–10 times lower NO_X emission rates than corresponding ES in the range of speed from 20 to 90 km/h. NO_X emission rates of diesel Euro 3 and Euro 4 cars varied from 0.45 to 1.1 g/km and from 0.31 to 1.1 g/km, respectively. Two examined diesel Euro 3 and one Euro 4 passenger vehicles did not satisfy NO_X ES at real use. Euro 3 diesel cars showed 28.9 times higher NO_X emissions than Euro 3 petrol cars and Euro 4 diesel car demonstrated 17.6 times higher NO_X emissions than Euro 4 petrol cars at warmed and stabilized engine at a cruise speed ranging from 30 to 60 km/h.     

Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective

This paper addresses transit technology investment issues under urban population volatility using a real option approach. Two important problems are investigated: which transit technology should be selected and when should it be introduced. A real option model is proposed to incorporate explicitly the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial structure in terms of households’ residential location choices and housing market. The trigger population thresholds for investing in a transit technology project and for shifting from a transit technology to another are explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of the urban system and transit technology investment are also carried out. It was found that (i) transit technology investment can induce urban sprawl; (ii) ignoring the effects of transit technology investment on urban spatial equilibrium can lead to a late investment; and (iii) there is a significant difference in the trigger population thresholds for transit technology shift estimated by the net present value approach and the real option approach.     

Traffic Noise in Europe: A Comparison of Calculation Methods,Noise Indices and Noise Standards for Road and Railroad Traffic in Europe

The demand for inland freight transport in Europe is mainly met by road transport, leading to unsustainable impacts such as air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. Since rail transport has lower externalities than road transport, a modal shift from road to rail is an accepted policy goal for achieving a more sustainable and competitive transport system. However, intermodal road–rail transport is mainly competitive for long-distance transport, and as a consequence, the potential for modal shift is limited. The cost efficiency of road–rail intermodal transport is particularly sensitive to pre- and post-haulage (PPH) costs, since this activity typically has a larger cost compared with its share of the total distance in the transport chain. For intermodal transportation over shorter distances, for example, below 300 km and where there are substantial PPH activities at both ends of the chain, the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system compared with that of direct road is low. Improving the efficiency of PPH activities is, therefore, of utmost importance for the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system. This paper looks into the issue of improving the cost efficiency of an intermodal transport chain by implementing an innovative and flexible legal framework regarding the PPH activities in the chain. By extending the legal framework with exemptions for longer vehicles in PPH, the cost efficiency could be greatly improved. The purpose of such a framework is to allow and enable, for PPH exclusively, the use of 2?×?40 foot or even two semi-trailers using only one vehicle in the context of the Swedish regulatory framework. This paper develops a strategic calculation model for assessing and investigating the consequences of such a framework and investigates the framework's potential in terms of cost efficiency. The model in combination with a sensitivity analysis of input variables gives a comprehensive understanding of the effects of PPH under different circumstances. From the results, it is evident that there are substantial positive effects associated with a PPH framework of longer vehicles. Results indicate that a typical shipper may experience cost reductions of about 5–10% of the total costs of the intermodal transport chain. In summary, a more innovative and flexible legal framework regarding vehicle length in the PPH links can contribute to a greater modal shift, improved cost efficiency and more environmentally friendly transportation systems.     

Feebates, footprints and highway safety

This paper presents an analysis of a market-based policy aimed at encouraging manufacturers to develop more fuel efficient vehicles without affecting the car buyer’s choice of vehicle size. A vehicle’s size is measured by its “footprint”, the product of track width and wheelbase. Traditional market-based policies to promote higher fuel economy, such as higher gasoline taxes or gas guzzler taxes, also induce motorists to purchase smaller vehicles. Whether or not such policies affect overall road safety remains controversial, however. Feebates, a continuous schedule of new vehicle taxes and rebates as a function of vehicle fuel consumption, can also be made a function of vehicle size, thus removing the incentive to buy a smaller vehicle. A feebate system based on a vehicle’s footprint creates the same incentive to adopt technology to improve fuel economy as simple feebate systems while removing any incentive for manufacturers or consumers to downsize vehicles.     

Modeling of individual vehicle safety and fuel consumption under comprehensive external conditions

This research intends to explore external factors affecting driving safety and fuel consumption, and build a risk and fuel consumption prediction model for individual drivers based on natural driving data. Based on 120 taxi drivers’ natural driving data during 4 months, driving behavior data under various conditions of the roadway, traffic, weather, and time of day are extracted. The driver's fuel consumption is directly collected by the on-board diagnostics (OBD) unit, and safety index is calculated based on Data Threshold Violations (DTV) and Phase Plane Analysis with Limits (PPAL) considering speed, longitudinal and lateral acceleration. By using a linear mixed model explaining the fixed effect of the external conditions and the random effect of the driver, the influences of various external factors on fuel consumption and safety are analyzed and discussed. The prediction model lays a foundation for drivers' fuel consumption and risk prediction in different external conditions, which could help improve individual driving behavior for the benefit of both fuel consumption and safety.