On the cost of misperceived travel time variability

Because individuals may misperceive travel time distributions, using the implied reduced form of the scheduling model might fall short of capturing all costs of travel time variability. We reformulate a general scheduling model employing rank-dependent utility theory and derive two special cases as econometric specifications to study these uncaptured costs. It is found that reduced-form expected cost functions still have a mean–variance form when misperception is considered, but the value of travel time variability is higher. We estimate these two models with stated-preference data and calculate the empirical cost of misperception. We find that: (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure times too early to achieve a minimum cost, (ii) scheduling preferences elicited using a stated-choice method can be relatively biased if probability weighting is not considered, and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving the travel time distribution might be nontrivial when time is valued differently over the time of day and is substantial for some people.     

Intelligent transportation system based dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling with variable travel times

This paper presents a dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model that incorporates real time information using variable travel times. Dynamic traffic simulation was used to update travel times. The model was applied to a test road network. Results indicated that the total cost decreased by implementing the dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model with the real time information based on variable travel times compared with that of the forecast model. As well, in many cases total running times of vehicles were also decreased. Therefore, the dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model will be beneficial for both carriers in reducing total costs and society at large by alleviating traffic congestion.     

Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information

The delay costs of traffic disruptions and congestion and the value of travel time reliability are typically evaluated using single trip scheduling models, which treat the trip in isolation of previous and subsequent trips and activities. In practice, however, when activity scheduling to some extent is flexible, the impact of delay on one trip will depend on the actual and predicted travel time on itself as well as other trips, which is important to consider for long-lasting disturbances and when assessing the value of travel information. In this paper we extend the single trip approach into a two trips chain and activity scheduling model. Preferences are represented as marginal activity utility functions that take scheduling flexibility into account. We analytically derive trip timing optimality conditions, the value of travel time and schedule adjustments in response to travel time increases. We show how the single trip models are special cases of the present model and can be generalized to a setting with trip chains and flexible scheduling. We investigate numerically how the delay cost depends on the delay duration and its distribution on different trips during the day, the accuracy of delay prediction and travel information, and the scheduling flexibility of work hours. The extension of the model framework to more complex schedules is discussed.     

A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers

This paper develops and applies a practical method to estimate the benefits of improved reliability of road networks. We present a general methodology to estimate the scheduling costs due to travel time variability for car travel. In contrast to existing practical methods, we explicitly consider the effect of travel time variability on departure time choices. We focus on situations when only mean delays are known, which is typically the case when standard transport models are used. We first show how travel time variability can be predicted from mean delays. We then estimate the scheduling costs of travellers, taking into account their optimal departure time choice given the estimated travel time variability. We illustrate the methodology for air passengers traveling by car to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. We find that on average planned improvements in network reliability only lead to a small reduction in access costs per trip in absolute terms, mainly because most air passengers drive to the airport outside peak hours, when travel time variability tends to be low. However, in relative terms the reduction in access costs due to the improvements in network reliability is substantial. In our case we find that for every 1 Euro reduction in travel time costs, there is an additional cost reduction of 0.7 Euro due to lower travel time variability, and hence lower scheduling costs. Ignoring the benefits from improved reliability may therefore lead to a severe underestimation of the total benefits of infrastructure improvements.     

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

We analyze the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since the cost of missing a flight is likely to be high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed. Second, the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in access travel time, early and late arrival time at the airport, and the probability to miss a flight are estimated, using a stated choice experiment. The results indicate that the WTPs are relatively high. Third, a model is developed to calculate the cost of variable travel times for representative air travelers going by car, taking into account travel time cost, scheduling cost and the cost of missing a flight using empirical travel time data. In this model, the value of reliability for air travelers is derived taking “anticipating departure time choice” into account, meaning that travelers determine their departure time from home optimally. Results of the numerical exercise show that the cost of access travel time variability for business travelers are between 0% and 30% of total access travel cost, and for non-business travelers between 0% and 25%. These numbers depend strongly on the time of the day.     

Multi-objective bilevel construction material transportation scheduling in large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment

Abstract

This paper investigates a transportation scheduling problem in large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. The problem is formulated as a fuzzy, random multi-objective bilevel optimization model where the construction company decides the transportation quantities from every source to every destination according to the criterion of minimizing total transportation cost and transportation time on the upper level, while the transportation agencies choose their transportation routes such that the total travel cost is minimized on the lower level. Specifically, we model both travel time and travel cost as triangular fuzzy random variables. Then the multi-objective bilevel adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the model. Finally, a case study of transportation scheduling for the Shuibuya Hydropower Project in China is used as a real world example to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the optimization model and algorithm.     

Additive measures of travel time variability

This paper derives a measure of travel time variability for travellers equipped with scheduling preferences defined in terms of time-varying utility rates, and who choose departure time optimally. The corresponding value of travel time variability is a constant that depends only on preference parameters. The measure is unique in being additive with respect to independent parts of a trip. It has the variance of travel time as a special case. Extension is provided to the case of travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway.     

Door-to-door travel times in RP departure time choice models: An approximation method using GPS data

A common way to determine values of travel time and schedule delay is to estimate departure time choice models, using stated preference (SP) or revealed preference (RP) data. The latter are used less frequently, mainly because of the difficulties to collect the data required for the model estimation. One main requirement is knowledge of the (expected) travel times for both chosen and unchosen departure time alternatives. As the availability of such data is limited, most RP-based scheduling models only take into account travel times on trip segments rather than door-to-door travel times, or use very rough measures of door-to-door travel times. We show that ignoring the temporal and spatial variation of travel times, and, in particular, the correlation of travel times across links may lead to biased estimates of the value of time (VOT). To approximate door-to-door travel times for which no complete measurement is possible, we develop a method that relates travel times on links with continuous speed measurements to travel times on links where relatively infrequent GPS-based speed measurements are available. We use geographically weighted regression to estimate the location-specific relation between the speeds on these two types of links, which is then used for travel time prediction at different locations, days, and times of the day. This method is not only useful for the approximation of door-to-door travel times in departure time choice models, but is generally relevant for predicting travel times in situations where continuous speed measurements can be enriched with GPS data.     

Integrated modeling of high performance passenger and freight train planning on shared-use corridors in the US

This paper studies strategic level train planning for high performance passenger and freight train operations on shared-use corridors in the US. We develop a hypergraph-based, two-level approach to sequentially minimize passenger and freight costs while scheduling train services. Passenger schedule delay and freight lost demand are explicitly modeled. We explore different solution strategies and conclude that a problem-tailored linearized reformulation yields superior computational performance. Using realistic parameter values, our numerical experiments show that passenger cost due to schedule delay is comparable to in-vehicle travel time cost and rail fare. In most cases, marginal freight cost increase from scheduling more passenger trains is higher than marginal reduction in passenger schedule delay cost. The heterogeneity of train speed reduces the number of freight trains that can run on a corridor. Greater tolerance for delays could reduce lost demand and overall cost on the freight side. The approach developed in the paper could be applied to other scenarios with different parameter values.     

A bi-objective user equilibrium model of travel time reliability in a road network

Travel time, travel time reliability and monetary cost have been empirically identified as the most important criteria influencing route choice behaviour. We concentrate on travel time and travel time reliability and review two prominent user equilibrium models incorporating these two factors. We discuss some shortcomings of these models and propose alternative bi-objective user equilibrium models that overcome the shortcomings. Finally, based on the observation that both models use standard deviation of travel time within their measure of travel time reliability, we propose a general travel time reliability bi-objective user equilibrium model. We prove that this model encompasses those discussed previously and hence forms a general framework for the study of reliability related user equilibrium. We demonstrate and validate our concepts on a small three-link example.     

Link travel time inference using entry/exit information of trips on a network

This paper studies link travel time estimation using entry/exit time stamps of trips on a steady-state transportation network. We propose two inference methods based on the likelihood principle, assuming each link associates with a random travel time. The first method considers independent and Gaussian distributed link travel times, using the additive property that trip time has a closed-form distribution as the summation of link travel times. We particularly analyze the mean estimates when the variances of trip time estimates are known with a high degree of precision and examine the uniqueness of solutions. Two cases are discussed in detail: one with known paths of all trips and the other with unknown paths of some trips. We apply the Gaussian mixture model and the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm to deal with the latter. The second method splits trip time proportionally among links traversed to deal with more general link travel time distributions such as log-normal. This approach builds upon an expected log-likelihood function which naturally leads to an iterative procedure analogous to the EM algorithm for solutions. Simulation tests on a simple nine-link network and on the Sioux Falls network respectively indicate that the two methods both perform well. The second method (i.e., trip splitting approximation) generally runs faster but with larger errors of estimated standard deviations of link travel times.     

The cost of equity: Assessing transit accessibility and social disparity using total travel cost

Social equity is increasingly incorporated as a long-term objective into urban transportation plans. Researchers use accessibility measures to assess equity issues, such as determining the amount of jobs reachable by marginalized groups within a defined travel time threshold and compare these measures across socioeconomic categories. However, allocating public transit resources in an equitable manner is not only related to travel time, but also related to the out-of-pocket cost of transit, which can represent a major barrier to accessibility for many disadvantaged groups. Therefore, this research proposes a set of new accessibility measures that incorporates both travel time and transit fares. It then applies those measures to determine whether people residing in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods in Montreal, Canada experience the same levels of transit accessibility as those living in other neighborhoods. Results are presented in terms of regional accessibility and trends by social indicator decile. Travel time accessibility measures estimate a higher number of jobs that can be reached compared to combined travel time and cost measures. However, the degree and impact of these measures varies across the social deciles. Compared to other groups in the region, residents of socially disadvantaged areas have more equitable accessibility to jobs using transit; this is reflected in smaller decreases in accessibility when fare costs are included. Generating new measures of accessibility combining travel time and transit fares provides more accurate measures that can be easily communicated by transportation planners and engineers to policy makers and the public since it translates accessibility measures to a dollar value.     

Costs of travel time uncertainty and benefits of travel time information: Conceptual model and numerical examples

A negative effect of congestion that tends to be overlooked is travel time uncertainty. Travel time uncertainty causes scheduling costs due to early or late arrival. The negative effects of travel time uncertainty can be reduced by providing travellers with travel time information, which improves their estimate of the expected travel time, thereby reducing scheduling costs. In order to assess the negative effects of uncertainty and the benefits of travel time information, this paper proposes a conceptual model of departure time choice under travel time uncertainty and information. The model is based on expected utility theory, and includes the variation in travel time, the quality of travel time information and travellers’ perception of the travel time. The model is illustrated by an application to the case of the A2 motorway between Beesd and Utrecht in the Netherlands.     

An integrated modelling approach for the bicriterion vehicle routing and scheduling problem with environmental considerations

The consideration of pollution in routing decisions gives rise to a new routing framework where measures of the environmental implications are traded off with business performance measures. To address this type of routing decisions, we formulate and solve a bi-objective time, load and path-dependent vehicle routing problem with time windows (BTL-VRPTW). The proposed formulation incorporates a travel time model representing realistically time varying traffic conditions. A key feature of the problem under consideration is the need to address simultaneously routing and path finding decisions. To cope with the computational burden arising from this property of the problem we propose a network reduction approach. Computational tests on the effect of the network reduction approach on determining non-dominated solutions are reported. A generic solution framework is proposed to address the BTL-VRPTW. The proposed framework combines any technique that creates capacity-feasible routes with a routing and scheduling method that aims to convert the identified routes to problem solutions. We show that transforming a set of routes to BTL-VRPTW solutions is equivalent to solving a bi-objective time dependent shortest path problem on a specially structured graph. We propose a backward label setting technique to solve the emerging problem that takes advantage of the special structure of the graph. The proposed generic solution framework is implemented by integrating the routing and scheduling method into an Ant Colony System algorithm. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm was assessed on the basis of its capability to determine minimum travel time and fuel consumption solutions. Although the computational results are encouraging, there is ample room for future research in algorithmic advances on addressing the proposed problem.     

Influence of peak spreading and departure time choice on evaluation of its measures

Intelligent transport systems provide various means to improve capacity and travel time in road networks. Evaluation of the benefits of these improvements requires consideration of travellers' response to them. We consider a continuous‐time equilibrium model of departure time choice and identify a formula for the dynamic equilibrium departure rate profile. We develop the analysis to consider the effect on the cost incurred by travellers of ITS measures through their effects on each of the travel time in the absence of congestion, and the capacity for travel. This shows the importance in choice of departure time of travellers' values of time at each of the origin and destination of their journeys. We show the importance of these values of time in evaluation, and that if travellers value their time at both the origin and destination of their journeys, their responses will lead them to achieve a greater reduction in costs than would be achieved under free‐flow conditions.     

Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty

We study route choice behavior when travel time is uncertain. In this case, users choice depends both on expected travel time and travel time variability. We collected survey data in the Paris area and analyzed them using a method based on the ordered probit. This leads to an ordinal as well as to different cardinal measures of risk aversion. Such an approach is consistent with expected and with non-expected utility theory. Econometric estimates suggest that absolute risk aversion is constant and show that risk aversion is larger for transit users, blue collars and for business appointments.     

International experience with speed limits during and prior to the energy crisis of 1973–4

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based method for estimating route travel times between individual locations in an urban traffic network. Fast and accurate estimation of route travel times is required by the vehicle routing and scheduling process involved in many fleet vehicle operation systems such as dial‐a‐ride paratransit, school bus, and private delivery services. The methodology developed in this paper assumes that route travel times are time‐dependent and stochastic and their means and standard deviations need to be estimated. Three feed‐forward neural networks are developed to model the travel time behaviour during different time periods of the day‐the AM peak, the PM peak, and the off‐peak. These models are subsequently trained and tested using data simulated on the road network for the City of Edmonton, Alberta. A comparison of the ANN model with a traditional distance‐based model and a shortest path algorithm is then presented. The practical implication of the ANN method is subsequently demonstrated within a dial‐a‐ride paratransit vehicle routing and scheduling problem. The computational results show that the ANN‐based route travel time estimation model is appropriate, with respect to accuracy and speed, for use in real applications.     

The use of GIS and relational database management systems to improve the scheduling operations of paratransit

The scheduling operations of many paratransit agencies in the United States are undertaken manually. Those customers who are eligible to travel call in their requests the day before the trip is needed. As the trip requests are received, they are entered into a list of unscheduled trips. In order to schedule these trips, the scheduler must first determine the number of drivers and shuttle buses that are available as well as the time of availability of each. The scheduler must then try to match the rides that are in “similar” areas around the “same” time to place together on the driver's schedule. As new trip requests are made, the schedulers must adjust the trips that are already scheduled to try and schedule as many trips as possible in the most efficient way.

By developing a system that would improve the scheduling system operations of, in this case, DART (Delaware Administration for Regional Transit) First State Paratransit, customers can expect to receive better service that will improve their ability to travel throughout the community. Some devices that could also improve the operations of paratransit agencies are described in this paper, such as satellite‐based Global Positioning System (GPS), radio communication systems, mobile computers, radio frequency‐based data communication systems, internet web pages, automated paratransit information systems, and card‐based data storage and transfer media. However, because paratransit systems are difficult to operate cost‐efficiently, the optimum and most cost‐efficient device must be selected. The system chosen for DART First State Paratransit includes the use of a relational database management system (RDMS) and a transportation Geographic Information System (GIS). RDMS keeps track of the database information as well as the scheduled trips and the GIS is ideal for analyzing both geographic and temporal data. This system is shown to be superior to the manual system.     

Fleet scheduling and dispatching for demand-responsive passenger services

This paper describes a software system designed to manage the deployment of a fleet of demand-responsive passenger vehicles such as taxis or variably routed buses. Multiple modes of operation are supported both for the fleet and for individual vehicles. Booking requests can be immediate (i.e. with zero notice) or in advance of travel. An initial implementation is chosen for each incoming request, subject to time-window and other constraints, and with an objective of minimising additional travel time or maximising a surrogate for future fleet capacity. This incremental insertion scheme is supplemented by post-insert improvement procedures, a periodically executed steepest-descent improvement procedure applied to the fleet as a whole, and a “rank-homing” heuristic incorporating information about future patterns of demand. A simple objective for trip-insertion and other scheduling operations is based on localised minimisation of travel time, while an alternative incorporating occupancy ratios has a more strategic orientation. Apart from its scheduling functions, the system includes automated vehicle dispatching procedures designed to achieve a favourable combination of customer service and efficiency of vehicle deployment. Provision is made for a variety of contingencies, including travel slower or faster than expected, unexpected vehicle locations, vehicle breakdowns and trip cancellations. Simulation tests indicate that the improvement procedures yield substantial efficiencies over more naı̈ve scheduling methods and that the system will be effective in real-time applications.     

A random utility maximization (RUM) based dynamic activity scheduling model: Application in weekend activity scheduling

The paper presents a modeling framework for dynamic activity scheduling. The modeling framework considers random utility maximization (RUM) assumption for its components in order to capture the joint activity type, location and continuous time expenditure choice tradeoffs over the course of the day. The dynamics of activity scheduling process are modeled by considering the history of activity participation as well as changes in time budget availability over the day. For empirical application, the model is estimated for weekend activity scheduling using a dataset (CHASE) collected in Toronto in 2002–2003. The data set classifies activities into nine general categories. For the empirical model of a 24-h weekend activity scheduling, only activity type and time expenditure choices are considered. The estimated empirical model captures many behavioral details and gives a high degree of fit to the observed weekend scheduling patterns. Some examples of such behavioral details are the effects of time of the day on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure; the effects of travel time requirements on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure, etc. Among many other findings, the empirical model reveals that on the weekend the utility of scheduling Recreational activities for later in the day and over a longer duration of time is high. It also reveals that on the weekend, Social activity scheduling is not affected by travel time requirements, but longer travel time requirements typically lead to longer-duration social activities.