中低速磁浮交通应急响应预案研究

中低速磁浮列车作为全新的城市轨道交通制式,诸多优点契合了城市发展需要,不过,在中低速磁浮列车由试验线走向商业运营的过程中,紧急疏散和应急救援系统还没有形成一套完整的体系。文章通过对国内外城市轨道交通系统事故应急预案进行调研,针对国内中低速磁浮列车日常运营中的动力丢失故障、悬浮功能故障、车辆电气设备故障及车辆冲突故障等问题,同时结合地铁、跨座式单轨交通在车辆故障情况下的紧急疏散和应急救援模式,开展乘客的紧急疏散和应急救援以及车辆自身的应急救援方案研究,提出了相应的较为通用的应急响应预案。     

地方铁路行车应急处置方法研究

如何根据地方铁路运输特点制定行之有效的行车应急处置方法,提高安全管理水平,是十分重要的课题。研究从应急预案、应急组织、应急救援、应急响应四个维度,分析地方铁路企业在行车应急处置工作中存在的共性问题,提出改善应急管理和提升应急处置能力的方法,以供参考。     

连载之六 道路甩挂运输组织理论与实践

道路甩挂运输应急救援道路甩挂运输所用载运工具较一般的道路运输载运工具要复杂,道路甩挂运输生产过程中的安全管理和发生交通事故或者突发事件时的应急救援就显得更重要。一、交通运输安全生产基本原理我国现阶段的交通安全状况不容乐观,在这样的发展背景下,交通运输管理实践的核心任务就是最大限度     

地震情景下民航公共突发事件应急管理体系研究

为避免民航公共突发事件带来的危险,形成快速响应救援体系,文章以地震为突发事件的模型,运用应急管理的"4R模型",构建应急管理体系和实施框架,展开了对应急决策系统五个特性的研究,从不同部门的不同职责出发寻求满足多部门联动应急管理体系的设计方法,构建较为完备的民航应急管理评价体系。最后采用层次分析法对联动应急体系展开评估,实现了民航应急管理从起始至结束评价的体系搭建,扩展了应对突发事件的研究思路,丰富了突发事件应急管理体系设计方法,提供了民航突发事件应急管理系统综合性能评估的解决方案。     

可预期灾害应急疏散交通管理现状及对策

可预期灾害中紧急疏散效率关系着人民群众生命财产安全,应急疏散交通管理能力对疏散撤离效率有较大影响。本文从需求预测、路网供应、应急管理、灾害恢复四个层面,对现存的应急疏散交通管理现状存在的问题进行分析总结,并分别提出改善建议以提高灾害条件下应急交通疏散能力。     

危险品运输应急救援体系协调的路径选择

应该将政府组织内部资源以及有选择性的将社会中的专业性资源重新整合,建立以相关政府机构、危险货物运输承运人、托运人为主体的道路危险货物运输应急救援体系,关键在于道路危险货物运输应急救援体系协调机理的建立。     

基于“情景-任务-能力”的机场反恐应急处置能力提升研究——以某繁忙机场受爆炸袭击为例

“情景-任务-能力”是当前应急管理领域重要的研究方法和技术之一。将其引入到机场应急救援领域，以构建繁忙机场受爆炸袭击情景为牵引，分析了机场反恐处置中所需的28项应急任务及处置要点，并以“人员疏散”为例，详细分析了能力评估内容和过程；同时在既定技术中，加入了“任务分类”的环节和思想，针对各类任务和若干重点活动，给出了具体、可操作的能力提升建议与措施。相关成果，不仅可直接用于指导和规范各机场提升反恐应急处置能力，而且可以为其他相关单位运用“情景-任务-能力”方法提升应急能力提供参考范本。     

江西省高速公路运输应急救援机制存在的问题及优化策略研究

为进一步优化江西省高速公路运输应急救援管理体系,完善高速公路运输应急救援机制,提升高速公路应急救援效率。本文通过分析江西省高速公路运输应急救援现状,总结出江西省高速公路运输应急救援机制存在的问题,问题主要在联动机制运转效率、救援队伍应急水平以及应急管理保障能力方面。最后提出了江西省高速公路运输应急救援机制的优化策略。     

高速公路突发事件应急管理数字化转型研究

为顺应数字化、网络化、智能化发展趋势,进一步提升高速公路突发事件应急管理水平,建设智慧高速,助力实现高速公路治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。基于此,研究高速公路突发事件应急管理数字化转型的思路与举措。通过研究得出,当前我国高速公路存在着响应速度慢、信息共享不畅等问题。为此,应将大数据技术应用于高速公路交通事故预防预警、事故处置指挥决策及现场救援等环节,促进高速公路突发事件应急管理数字化转型。     

基于Arena的水灾应急疏散仿真研究

本文通过永吉县口前镇为例,分析永吉县的应急疏散预案,找出应急疏散过程中的影响因素及确定合理的疏散路径。通过ARENA软件建立应急仿真模型,为应急疏散方案的设置提供一个合理的依据。     

Location planning for transit-based evacuation under the risk of service disruptions

The effectiveness of transit-based emergency evacuation highly depends on the location of pick-up facilities, resource allocation, and management. These facilities themselves are often subject to service disruptions during or after the emergency. This paper proposes a reliable emergency facility location model that determines both pre-emergency facility location planning and the evacuation operations afterwards, while facilities are subject to the risk of disruptions. We analyze how evacuation resource availability leverages individual evacuees’ response to service disruptions, and show how equilibrium of the evacuee arrival process could be reached at a functioning pick-up facility. Based on this equilibrium, an optimal resource allocation strategy is found to balance the tradeoff between the evacuees’ risks and the evacuation agency’s operation costs. This leads to the development of a compact polynomial-size linear integer programming formulation that minimizes the total expected system cost from both pre-emergency planning (e.g., facility set-up) and the evacuation operations (e.g., fleet management, transportation, and exposure to hazardous surroundings) across an exponential number of possible disruption scenarios. We also show how the model can be flexibly used to plan not only pre-disaster evacuation but also post-disaster rescue actions. Numerical experiments and an empirical case study for three coastal cities in the State of Mississippi (Biloxi, Gulfport, and D’lberville) are conducted to study the performance of the proposed models and to draw managerial insights.     

Estimating road network accessibility during a hurricane evacuation: A case study of hurricane Irma in Florida

Understanding the spatio-temporal road network accessibility during a hurricane evacuation—the level of ease of residents in an area in reaching evacuation destination sites through the road network—is a critical component of emergency management. While many studies have attempted to measure road accessibility (either in the scope of evacuation or beyond), few have considered both dynamic evacuation demand and characteristics of a hurricane. This study proposes a methodological framework to achieve this goal. In an interval of every six hours, the method first estimates the evacuation demand in terms of number of vehicles per household in each county subdivision (sub-county) by considering the hurricane’s wind radius and track. The closest facility analysis is then employed to model evacuees’ route choices towards the predefined evacuation destinations. The potential crowdedness index (PCI), a metric capturing the level of crowdedness of each road segment, is then computed by coupling the estimated evacuation demand and route choices. Finally, the road accessibility of each sub-county is measured by calculating the reciprocal of the sum of PCI values of corresponding roads connecting evacuees from the sub-county to the designated destinations. The method is applied to the entire state of Florida during Hurricane Irma in September 2017. Results show that I-75 and I-95 northbound have a high level of congestion, and sub-counties along the northbound I-95 suffer from the worst road accessibility. In addition, this research performs a sensitivity analysis for examining the impacts of different choices of behavioral response curves on accessibility results.     

云南省公路养护管理与应急抢险在线平台研究

文章针对云南省公路养护管理与应急抢险现状,分析了现代应急救援与公路养护管理的特征和需求,确定了养护管理与应急抢险在线平台的系统构成内容,并对平台的软、硬件系统进行了集成和研发,最后通过云南省应急抢险和养护管理实例证明了平台具有的实用性、可靠性和先进性。     

Traffic evacuation simulation based on multi-level driving decision model

Traffic evacuation is a critical task in disaster management. Planning its evacuation in advance requires taking many factors into consideration such as the destination shelter locations and numbers, the number of vehicles to clear, the traffic congestions as well as traffic road configurations. A traffic evacuation simulation tool can provide the emergency managers with the flexibility of exploring various scenarios for identifying more accurate model to plan their evacuation. This paper presents a traffic evacuation simulation system based on integrated multi-level driving-decision models which generate agents’ behavior in a unified framework. In this framework, each agent undergoes a Strategic, Cognitive, Tactical and Operational (SCTO) decision process, in order to make a driving decision. An agent’s actions are determined by a combination, on each process level, of various existing behavior models widely used in different driving simulation models. A wide spectrum of variability in each agent’s decision and driving behaviors, such as in pre-evacuation activities, in choice of route, and in the following or overtaking the car ahead, are represented in the SCTO decision process models to simulate various scenarios. We present the formal model for the agent and the multi-level decision models. A prototype simulation system that reflects the multi-level driving-decision process modeling is developed and implemented. Our SCTO framework is validated by comparing with MATSim tool, and the experimental results of evacuation simulation models are compared with the existing evacuation plan for densely populated Beijing, China in terms of various performance metrics. Our simulation system shows promising results to support emergency managers in designing and evaluating more realistic traffic evacuation plans with multi-level agent’s decision models that reflect different levels of individual variability of handling stress situations. The flexible combination of existing behavior and decision models can help generating the best evacuation plan to manage each crisis with unique characteristics, rather than resorting to a fixed evacuation plan.     

高速公路突发事件快速响应与决策平台构建

针对高速公路突发事件应急响应滞后、处置效率不高的问题,从突发事件的自动发现、影响评估、预案生成、资源配置、效果评估等多维角度进行系统全面的研究,推动建立跨区域跨部门应急联动救援机制。采用GIS地图技术、Electron框架技术等方法构建基于分布协作的高速公路重大突发事件快速响应与决策支持平台,实现对突发事件发现、响应、处置、救援及事后分析等环节的全流程管理,提升应急处置效能和效率。     

A decision support system for integrated hazardous materials routing and emergency response decisions

Hazardous materials routing constitutes a critical decision in mitigating the associated transportation risk. This paper presents a decision support system for assessing alternative distribution routes in terms of travel time, risk and evacuation implications while coordinating the emergency response deployment decisions with the hazardous materials routes. The proposed system provides the following functionalities: (i) determination of alternative non-dominated hazardous materials distribution routes in terms of cost and risk minimization, (ii) specification of the hazardous materials first-response emergency service units locations in order to achieve timely response to an accident, and (iii) determination of evacuation paths from the impacted area to designated shelters and estimation of the associated evacuation time. The proposed system has been implemented, used and evaluated for assessing alternative hazardous materials routing decisions within the heavily industrialized area of Thriasion Pedion of Attica, Greece. The implementation of the aforementioned functionalities is based on two new integer programming models for the hazardous materials routing and the emergency response units location problems, respectively. A simplified version of the routing model is solved by an existing heuristic algorithm developed by the authors. A new Lagrangean relaxation heuristic algorithm has been developed for solving the emergency response units location problem. The focus of this paper is on the exposition of the proposed decision support system components and functionalities. Special emphasis is placed on the presentation of the two new mathematical models and the new solution method for the location model.     

秦岭马白山隧道新型紧急救援站结构型式研究北大核心CSCD

针对艰险山区高速铁路隧道的防灾救援难题,文章依托秦岭马白山隧道,提出了适合该隧道的新型紧急救援站结构型式,并利用FDS软件模拟隧道内纵向通风时列车着火后的烟气扩散,确定了规范中尚未给出的紧急救援站隔离区长度参数。结果表明:(1)秦岭马白山隧道新型紧急救援站结构型式应包括疏散区、隔离区以及待避救援区;(2)利用FDS数值模拟时,在不考虑纵向通风下,烟气沿下坡方向的扩散长度为295 m;考虑沿下坡方向通风时烟气最远扩散长度为980 m,建议隔离区长度设置为1000 m。     

National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies: a comparison and contrast of state practices

The events of recent hurricane seasons have made evacuation a leading emergency management issue. In 1998 and 1999, Hurricanes Georges and Floyd precipitated the two largest evacuations in the history of the United States and perhaps, its two largest traffic jams. In response to the problems experienced during these events, many state departments’ of transportation have begun to take a more active role in the planning, management, and operation of hurricane evacuations. This is somewhat of a departure from prior practice when emergency management officials directed these tasks almost exclusively. Since the involvement of transportation professionals in the field of evacuation has been a fairly recent development, many of the newest practices and policies have only been used once, if ever. They also vary widely from state-to-state. To determine what the latest policies and strategies are and how they differed from one location to another, a national review of evacuation plans and practices was recently undertaken. The study was carried out from a transportation perspective and included both a review of the traditional transportation literature and a survey of department of transportation and emergency management officials in coastal states threatened by hurricanes. This paper highlights the findings of the survey portion of the study. It focuses mainly on current state practices, including the use of reverse flow operations and intelligent transportation systems. It also summarizes current evacuation management policies, methods of information exchange, and decision-making criteria. This paper presents the general similarities and differences in practices and gives particular attention to unique, innovative, and potentially useful practices used in individual states.     

EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model

This article describes a simple, rapid method for calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) that is compatible with research findings about evacuees’ behavior in hurricanes. This revision of an earlier version of the empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate method (EMBLEM) uses empirical data derived from behavioral surveys and allows local emergency managers to calculate ETEs by specifying four evacuation route system parameters, 16 behavioral parameters, and five evacuation scope/timing parameters. EMBLEM2 is implemented within a menu-driven evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS) that local emergency managers can use to calculate ETEs and conduct sensitivity analyses to examine the effects of plausible variation in the parameters. In addition, they can run EMDSS in real time (less than 10 min of run time) to recalculate ETEs while monitoring an approaching hurricane. The article provides an example using EMDSS to calculate ETEs for San Patricio County Texas and discusses directions for further improvements of the model.     

城乡道路客运安全与应急处置规范研究

文章根据城乡道路覆盖城际、城市、城乡、镇村四级客运网络的生产特点,以城市公交、城际客运和农村客运为研究对象,将其应急处置对象分为运输在途不安全因素及不同态势突发事件。在此基础上,提出了科学合理的驾驶员和客运企业应对不安全因素和突发事件的系列规范,规范了驾驶员的安全行车要求和现场应急处置,以及客运企业的应急响应流程和响应措施。对进一步提升驾驶员和客运企业应对不安全因素和突发事件的处置能力,降低城乡道路客运安全事故发生率及事故后的人员伤亡和财产损失,具有重要的社会效益。