综合安全评估(FSA)及其在船舶安全中的应用

综合安全评估(FSA)是近年来国外已在应用的一种安全评估方法。通过规范化的评估步骤，提出合理的并能有效控制风险的建议与措施，从而改进安全工作和提高安全水平。国际海事组织为确保船舶设计建造、营运管理和海上航行与环境等方面的安全，在20世纪末已将FSA引入和应用于船舶安全的领域。我们在介绍FSA方法及其实施的基础上，就FSA在船舶安全中应用的现状和发展进行论述，并提出了一些设想与建议。     

Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

 At the 62nd MSC conference (MSC62) in 1993, the UK proposed a new methodology for the consideration of safety regulations. This method is called formal safety assessment (FSA). FSA is an application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Risk is used as an index of safety. One of the most important parts of FSA is to evaluate the risk to a ship when it is equipped with the safety measures recommended by the proposed safety regulations. The National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI, formerly the Ship Research Institute) has been developing a method which allows the risk to be obtained holistically by utilizing a scientific method. To obtain the risk, the probability and consequences of every accident must be evaluated. This paper examines the following points: (a) a holistic methodology for risk evaluation; (b) a method used in the process of estimating the probability of collision; (c) a method to reduce the numbers of fire escalation scenarios; (d) a trial risk evaluation of cabin fire. Received: January 10, 2002 / Accepted: April 18, 2002     

Quantitative analysis of materiality in marine insurance

The ex post test of materiality is the traditional approach for a court to examine whether the non-disclosed information of the policyholder is material for a prudent underwriter. The approach of the ex post test has been questioned by the shipping industry, and amendments to the relevant clauses of the Marine Insurance Act 1906 are under discussion. In this research, the factors that significantly relate to marine incidents are determined based on the panel data through the step-wise random intercept model. The materiality of each factor can be reflected by constructing a factor-weighted risk indicator, which can be applied in the ex ante risk assessment of insured vessels. It endeavors to establish a risk index system for measuring the risk level of a ship, which can help both the underwriter and the policyholder in effective assessment of the materiality of information when they conclude the contract. A panel data of total loss incidents during the period 1999–2007 has been collected for verification of the methodology.     

Review of ship slamming loads and responses

The paper presents an overview of studies of slamming on ship structures. This work focuses on the hull slamming, which is one of the most important types of slamming problems to be considered in the ship design process and the assessment of the ship safety. There are three main research aspects related to the hull slamming phenomenon, a) where and how often a slamming event occurs, b) slamming load prediction and c) structural response due to slamming loads. The approaches used in each aspect are reviewed and commented, together with the presentation of some typical results. The methodology, which combines the seakeeping analysis and slamming load prediction, is discussed for the global analysis of the hull slamming of a ship in waves. Some physical phenomena during the slamming event are discussed also. Recommendations for the future research and developments are made.     

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.     

基于比例伪时序算法的舰船电力风险评估系统

[目的]为了提高舰船电力系统的安全性与稳定性,提出基于比例伪时序算法的风险评估系统.[方法]在舰船电力系统中引入改进的伪时序算法,对电压、功率和频率等电力模拟量进行赋值,并通过组态界面进行可视化监控,进而对舰船电力系统进行整体风险评估.同时,针对不同工况下的系统拓扑结构变化问题,通过引入比例补偿系数来调整算法,从而提高...     

LNG燃料技术在大型汽车运输船上的应用

基于LNG双燃料大型汽车运输船项目的开发介绍了以LNG作为船舶燃料的规范标准和风险评估流程,进一步从ME-GI双燃料主机、LNG燃料舱、燃料供给系统等方面阐述了LNG双燃料大型汽车运输船设计和建造的关键技术,为建造经济、环保、安全的LNG动力船提供了建设性思路。     

A process-centric ship design management framework

As the concept of concurrent engineering has emerged along with support for optimization techniques, lots of endeavors have been made to apply optimization techniques to real design problems for holistic decision-making. Even if the range of design problems to which optimization is applicable has been extended, most ship designs use an iterative and manual approach due to the difficulties of seamless integration of all related design activities. This paper proposes a process-centric management framework for the preliminary ship design process depending on these approaches. Requirements for the framework are generated based on the features of the ship design process first. The proposed framework consists of both process scheduling and process management parts. Each of these modules is divided into submodules, and the modules and their interactions are elaborated to reflect actual design practice. The designed framework is embodied within a workflow system and its usefulness examined through a pilot project.     

支持协同设计的船舶设计过程模型研究

船舶设计过程模型是在网络环境下开展船舶并行和协同设计系统的基础.本文根据船舶设计的特点,提出了将船舶设计过程按照项目、设计任务和设计活动三个层次进行分解的方法,并给出了船舶设计过程模型形式化定义.该模型明确了设计任务间的并行、顺序和协同关系,可以直接按设计任务构成活动网络图进行规划、分析、管理等工作,使设计过程具有良好的可变更性和可控性.     

Design of bridges against ship collisions

The paper outlines a rational design procedure for bridge piers and pylons against ship collision impacts. Firstly, a set of risk acceptance criteria are proposed. This is followed by a mathematically based procedure for calculation of the probability of critical ship meeting situations near the bridge, and the probability of ship collision accidents caused by human errors as well as technical errors. This first part of the paper leads to identification of the largest striking ship, “design vessels”, a given bridge pier must withstand without structural failure in order for the bridge connection to fulfil the risk acceptance criteria. The final part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the needed impact capacity for the bridge pylons and piers exposed to ship bow impact loads from these “design vessels”. For a number of different ship types and different tonnage merchant vessels, load – displacement relations for ship bow collisions against rigid walls are derived. Based on these comprehensive numerical results, a new empirical relation is derived which is suited for design against bow collisions. This expression for maximum bow collision forces is compared with a previously published expression for ice-strengthened ships and with existing standards for assessment of bow crushing forces. It is shown that there is need for an update of these existing standards. For design of piers and pylons against local impact pressure loads, a pressure - area relation for bulbous bow impacts is derived.     

Study of the ship design process model for collaborative design

The ship design process model is the basis for developing the ship collaborative design system under network environment. According to the characteristics of the ship design, a method for dividing the ship design process into three layers is pat forward, that is project layer, design task layer and design activity layer, then the formalized definitions of the ship design process model, the decomposing principles of the ship design process and the architecture of the ship collaborative design （SDPM） system are presented. This method simplifies the activity network, makes the optimization and adjustment of the design plan convenient and also makes the design process easier to control and change, at last the architecture of the ship collaborative design system is discussed.     

船舶气囊下水工艺及其下水坡道的设计

近年随着造船业的发展,船舶气囊下水工艺得到了诸多船厂的广泛采用。但由于与下水工艺密切相关的下水坡道的设计没有得到足够的重视,使得船舶下水仍然存在安全隐患。介绍了船舶气囊下水工艺过程,分析了下水坡道设计中存在的问题,提出了下水坡道设计中应考虑的因素,结合工程实例阐述了坡道设计的相关要点。     

Intelligent Tools Used in the Design of Navy Ships

The first step in implementing an intelligent ship is designing the ship intelligently. Naval ship design is becoming an interactive process where designers on different sites can work collaboratively and simultaneously, connected through virtual design environments. In this paper we introduce two such design environments. The first is an immersive, virtual reality environment enabling rapid design of ship space arrangements, exploration of Human System Integration issues, and reduced cost of test and evaluation through the use of modeling and simulation. The second is a systems engineering application capable of evaluating the benefit of spiral technology insertions, identifying areas for research and development investment, and evaluating the performance, risk, and affordability of proposed technologies in current and future ship systems, by conducting trade space analysis and optimization. Applications of these tools will be discussed.     

面向船体结构CAD/FEA集成的工程数据库设计

为提高船型开发效率,针对当前设计过程的特点,尤其是CAD系统与FEA系统之间连接的不足,提出了集成数据管理技术,研究了面向船体结构CAD/FEA集成的工程数据库设计方法,实现了CAD和FEA之间的文件双向传递.     

天津VTS新开发的船舶数据处理系统（SDPS）

船舶数据处理系统（ＳＤＰＳ）是ＶＴＳ系统一个重要的不可或缺的子系统。本文详细介绍天津ＶＴＳ新开发的船舶数据处理系统特点、功能、程序设计、数据流程及实现方法。     

风险评估方法在ISM中的应用

简单介绍ISM规则,并对风险评估的定义、方法及程序进行说明,最后以单船风险评估为例,对ISM规则实施过程中的风险评估方法进行探讨。     

基于知识组件的船舶空调通风系统原理图快速生成方法

[目的]针对船舶空调通风系统原理图绘制效率低、数据管理难的问题,提出一种该系统原理图快速生成方法.[方法]首先,分析船舶空调通风系统原理图绘制过程,定义此系统的知识组件模型、实体建模和实例化过程;然后,结合该系统的设计特点,设计基于知识组件的原理图快速生成业务模型和数据交换模型;最后,以AutoCAD和PDM系统为平台...     

基于BP神经网络的客滚船营运风险评估

随着客滚船运输行业的兴起,客滚船的营运安全日益受到各方面的关注。文中利用BP神经网络评价方法,由人、船、环境、管理四要素所构成的客滚船营运风险进行评估,最终确定某客滚船具体航次的营运风险。经过验证,基于BP神经网络客滚船营运风险评估方法与实际相符,为客滚船风险评估提供一条新的途径。     

一种有效近似建模方法及船舶耐波性代理模型构建

船舶耐波性能预报计算过程复杂,会受到诸多设计变量的影响;且采用高精度商业软件如CFD预报船舶性能的计算代价非常高。文章采用拉丁超立方方法进行了设计空间抽样。定义了一个新的综合衡准指标来表达船舶耐波性能,即短期和长期作用下船舶非工作时间百分数。考虑了船舶耐波性能中的五个运动方向：横摇、纵摇、转艏、横荡和升沉。为提高船舶耐波性能计算效率,一种有效的近似建模方法—单参数Lagrangian 支持向量回归算法被用于训练并构建代理模型以预报船舶耐波性能,且该算法是由作者在过去的研究工作中首次提出。以海洋平台支援船（OSV）为例,采用SPL-SVR算法预报船舶耐波性能,并与基于NAPA计算仿真结果、人工神经网络和经典支持向量回归算法进行对比。该文考虑OSV的两种速度,建立了海洋平台支援船短期作用下非工作时间百分数的耐波性能响应面模型,结果显示采用SPL-SVR算法建立的船舶耐波性能响应面模型比较适合船型初步设计的工程实际应用,并具有较高的计算效率。     

基于灰色模糊理论的水运基础设施建设项目后评价模型

为解决水运基础设施建设项目后评价中定性评价指标偏多、数据不完备的问题,将灰色模糊理论引入水运基础设施建设项目的综合后评价中,构建了灰色模糊综合评价法.该模型利用灰色评估理论构造出模糊隶属度矩阵,并采用模糊算法计算出项目总体的风险大小.模型在淮安三线船闸工程项目后评价中的成功应用,表明该模型客观地反映后评价项目的成功度,提高了后评价结果的合理性.