Freight Data Assembling and Modeling: Methodologies and Practice

Abstract

In comparison to personal travel, freight movements within large metropolitan areas are much less studied. Most conventional transportation models and planning analysis that disregarded freight flows have been criticized on the plausibility of their results and conclusions. To alleviate these problems, this study proposes a non-survey based approach to assemble and process freight data in a systematic way. A freight origin–destination (OD) matrix of freight flows can be developed using secondary data sources. The estimated freight flows can be loaded together with conventional passenger flows onto the regional highway network of a large metropolitan area. As a case study, this non-survey based approach was applied to build a freight OD and study the traffic flows in Los Angeles. It concluded that this approach can be used to analyze urban freight movement in a low-cost way in which planning agencies can overcome the common omission of freight flow information in their transportation plans.     

Integrated analysis of land-use and transport policy interventions

Analysing the impact of urban policy interventions on urban growth, land use and transport (LUT) is crucial for urban planners, transport planners and policy-makers, especially in rapidly growing cities. This paper presents a cellular automata-based land-use/transport interaction model – Metronamica-LUTI – for Jeddah that is used to analyse the impact of different proposed policy interventions under two urban growth scenarios for the period 2011–2031. Used as an integrated policy impact assessment tool, the model demonstrates a strong reciprocal relationship between LUT in Jeddah. This study shows that relevant spatial information and integrated policy impact assessment can provide rich insights into the interaction between LUT, the appropriate policy to consider in place and time which traditional planning practice and typical static urban models cannot do.     

Planning for pedestrian networks in North American downtowns

While North American urban regions are served by mechanical modes of transportation, downtowns are largely pedestrian environments. The growth and consolidation of office districts over the last twenty years have revived interest in developing coherent and efficient pedestrian networks, which can be coordinated with other transportation needs within the downtown. Ambitious plans for expansion of the downtown for offices, the retail and service industries as well as for housing and entertainment have been adopted in many North American cities during the 1980s. The successful integration of these large central areas depends to a considerable extent on the implementation of expanded pedestrian networks. This paper discusses certain spatial characteristics of North American cities which call for specific network designs and research into the walking environments of central areas. More knowledge is needed of the relative contributions to pedestrian regeneration of land use combinations, the design of networks and of walking paths.     

Linking land use and transportation in a rapidly urbanizing context: A study in Delhi,India

Cities in developing countries like India are facing some of the same concerns that North American cities are: congestion and urban growth. However, there is a sense of urgency in cities like Delhi, India in that this growth is far more rapid as both urbanization and motorization are ongoing processes that have not yet peaked. In this paper, we examine land use change and its relationship with transportation infrastructure and other planning related variables in a spatial context. We estimate land use change models at two different scales from separate data. Cellular automation and Markov models were used to understand change at the regional scale and discrete choice models to predict change at the local level. The results suggest that land use in the Delhi metropolitan area is rapidly intensifying while losing variety. These changes are affected by industrial, commercial and infrastructure location and planners and policy-makers need to better understand the implications of location decisions. We also examine these results in the context of a policy framework for data-based planning that links land use and transportation models for Delhi.     

Estimating origin‐destination matrices from link volume counts: a simple intercity auto travel demand model for Sri Lanka

The cost of nation wide travel surveys is high. Hence in many developing countries, planners have found it difficult to develop intercity transportation plans due to the non availability of origin‐destination trip matrices. This paper will describe a method for the intercity auto travel estimation for Sri Lanka with link traffic volume data.

The paper outlines the rationale of selecting the district capitals of Sri Lanka as its “cities,” the methodology for selecting the intercity road network, determination of link travel times from express bus schedules and the location of link volume counting positions.

Initially, the total auto travel demand model is formulated with various trip purpose sub‐models. This model is finally modified to a simple demand model with district urban population and travel times between city pairs as the exogenous variables, to overcome statistical estimation difficulties. The final demand model has statistics within the acceptable regions.

The advantages of a simple model are discussed and possible extensions are proposed.     

The transportation systems of Buenos Aires, Chicago and São Paulo: City centers, infrastructure and policy analysis

We compare the passenger transportation systems of Buenos Aires, Chicago and São Paulo. The selected cities represent distinctive combinations of land-use, infrastructure, and evolution of transport policy. Analysis is centered on accessibility to downtown areas, where transportation processes converge in an environment where space is scarce. In two of the three cities institutional arrays that legally establish unified decision making have shown little capacity to launch fare or physical coordination between modes. In two of the three cities the concentration of public transportation supply to historical downtowns has not been an attraction factor, and downtown uses have expanded to less accessible areas. Gentrification in Chicago is also another process showing that land use changes are related to many factors, transportation being only one of them, and not always a necessary one. In all three cases the use of railways, as a set of inherited infrastructures, has seen an increase whose magnitude suggests a link to modal reassignment due to increasing congestion. Scarcity of space in old downtown areas is being counteracted through more intense use, or through the expansion of vertical space for transportation operations.     

Retrospect and prospect for subarea travel demand modeling: an empirical study

Abstract

At present, customized subarea models have been widely used in local transportation planning throughout the USA. A subarea model's biggest strengths lie in its more detailed and accurate modeling outputs which better meet local planning requirements. In addition, a subarea model can substantially reduce database size and model running time. In spite of these advantages, subarea models remain quite weak in modeling transit projects, smart growth measures, air quality conformity, and other areas. In addition to evaluating subarea models, this paper uses the Irvine Transportation Analysis Model (ITAM) as an empirical case of subarea model to illustrate the remedial procedures in maintaining its consistency with the regional model of the Orange County Transportation Analysis Model (OCTAM). Looking into the future, subarea models face both opportunities and challenges. More GIS applications, travel surveys, micro-simulation software utilization, and modeling improvements are expected to be incorporated into the subarea modeling process.     

Deciding whether and how to improve statewide travel demand models based on transportation planning application needs

Many states in the USA have developed statewide travel demand models for transportation planning at the state level and along intercity corridors. Travel demand models at mega-region and provincial levels are also widely used in Europe and Asia. With modern transportation planning applications requiring enhanced model capabilities, many states are considering improving their four-step statewide demand models. This paper synthesizes representative statewide models developed with traditional four-step, advanced four-step, and integrated micro-simulation methods. The focus of this synthesis study is as much on model applications and data requirements as on modeling methods. An incremental model improvement approach toward advanced statewide models is recommended. Review findings also suggest model improvement activities should be justified by planning application needs. For statewide model improvement plans to be successful and financially sustainable, the return on model improvement investment needs to be demonstrated by timely applications that rely on improved model capabilities.     

A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China: Findings from the panel data

This study examines the determinants of private car ownership in China. The target cities are 32 provincial capital cities and the target period is from 2001 to 2011. In order to capture the individual effects (heterogeneity), the fixed and random effect models are adopted and compared, in which 8 explanatory variables are selected to include economic characteristics, urban characteristics, and transportation characteristics. Moreover, double natural logarithm model is employed to measure the elastic relationship between the private car ownership and regressors. The estimated results show that the fixed effect model performs better than pooled regression model and the random effect model. In addition, there are variations of private car ownership among cities and regions. Finally, the influence of factors responsible for these variations is also presented and discussed in this paper.     

Techniques of land use/transportation planning in Australian cities

With the publication of the Sydney Area Transportation Study, land-use/transportation studies now have been conducted in all capital cities as well as in the majority of other urban areas with populations in excess of 40.000. A review of these studies is made and a qualitative assessment is attempted of the technical phases —land-use planning, trip-generation, trip-distribution, modal-split, traffic assignment and evaluation. Full summary results of this comparative survey are presented in tabular form, although themes developed in the text are illustrated with specific examples from individual studies. The methodology of land-use/transportation studies has been attacked by some Australian writers. An attempt is made to assess the relevance of these criticisms when applied to the practical planning process in Australia.     

Perceived accessibility,mobility, and connectivity of public transportation systems

Although public transportation is considered effective at reducing the external cost of driving private vehicles, many urbanites do not use public transportation. This study develops measures employing accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity for an entire public transportation service chain as indicators for evaluating public transport services, prioritizes underperforming scenarios from the perspective of urban travelers, and derives various market segmentation strategies that consider different socio-demographic characteristics. A conceptual model is set up herein to assess these latent constructs that describe unobservable and immeasurable characteristics. As a Likert ordinal scale can generate misleading statistical inferences, the Rasch model is used to eliminate bias generated by an ordinal scale when measuring these three latent constructs separately. The Rasch model compares person parameters with item parameters, which are then subjected to logarithmic transformation along a logit scale so as to recognize specific difficulties of service scenarios that cannot be easily eliminated by certain urban travelers. The multidimensional Rasch model also measures the perceptions of urban travelers in terms of the interactions between accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity of this public transportation system. While comparing urban travelers of two large cities in Taiwan, Taipei and Kaohsiung, the empirical results demonstrate that perceived accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity differ based on travelers’ age, frequency of weekly sports activities, and environmental awareness. This paper also advances appropriate improvement strategies and provides policy suggestions for urban planners, public transportation service operation agencies, and policy makers when they seek to create user-friendly public transportation services. The proposed approach can be generalized in other cities by considering their local context uniqueness and further evaluating their public transport services.     

Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?

A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emissions models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the region's travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections (within approximately one standard deviation) may result in the region's transportation plan not meeting the conformity test for nitrogens of oxides (NO_x) in the year 2005 (i.e., an approximately 16% probability). This outcome is also possible in the year 2015 but less likely (within approximately two standard deviations or a 2.5% probability). Errors in socioeconomic projections are only one of many sources of error in travel demand and emissions models. These results have several policy implications. First, regions like Sacramento that meet their conformity tests by a very small margin should rethink new highway investment and consider contingency transportation plans that incorporate more aggressive emissions reduction policies. Second, regional transportation planning agencies should conduct sensitivity analyses as part of their conformity analysis to make explicit significant uncertainties in the methods and to identify the probability of their transportation plan not conforming. Third, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should clarify the interpretation of “demonstrate” conformity of transportation plans; that is, specify the level of certainty that it considers a sufficient demonstration of conformity.     

Comprehensive regional modeling for long-range planning: linking integrated urban models and geographic information systems

This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land use projections for each of the 58 zones in the urban model were fed into a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based land allocation model, which spatially allocates the several land uses within each zone according to simple accessibility rules. While neither model is new, this is one of the first attempts to link these two types of models for regional policy assessments. Other integrated urban models may be linked to other GIS land allocation models in this fashion. Pairing these two types of models allows the user to gain the advantages of the urban models, which represent spatial competition across a region and produce measures of user welfare (traveler and locator surplus), and the advantages of the GIS land allocation models, which produce detailed land use maps that can then be used for environmental impact assessment.     

The simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model (SE3M) of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. Historically, the financial, time, and staff requirements to develop one of these models has put them beyond the reach of most small- to medium-sized urban areas. The purpose of this paper is to present the large zone economic submodel of SE³M, an integrated model – founded upon economic base theory and bid-rent theory – that is reasonably accurate, yet simpler in form, function, and implementation than competing models. The US territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. The submodel presented here was validated against a horizon year with known data for zonal level population and employment totals together with control totals for the island as a whole. The model was able – across two base years and one validation, horizon year – to locate all jobs and a high percentage of the population on each zone on the island.     

Induced traffic: what do transportation models tell us?

Mathematical models of transportation systems have played a prominent role in transportation planning throughout the world since the 1960s. These models are hypotheses of how people use transport systems. They provide a means of extrapolating the necessarily limited empirical evidence of how road users respond to changes in the road system. However, it needs to be recognised that these extrapolations rely for their validity on the realism of the underlying theories; transportation models can only tell us about the relationships actually built into them.This paper reviews the limited number of studies undertaken mainly in the UK in which calibrated transportation models have been used in a systematic way to give some insight into the relative importance of the various components of induced traffic. These studies include analyses of the effects of road schemes using: a theoretical single link model; conventional four-stage transportation models of Cardiff and Belfast; elasticity models in Cardiff, Belfast, West London and Norwich; land-use interaction models in Leeds, Bilbao, Dortmund; and a model of land-use effects in Norwich. The results tell us two things: (a) the scale of the various elements of induced traffic, and (b) the implications for the economic benefits of road schemes.     

A spatial decision support system for retail plan generation and impact assessment

Current geographic information systems typically offer limited analytical capabilities and lack the flexibility to support spatial decision making effectively. Spatial decision support systems aim to fill this gap. Following this approach, this paper describes an operational system for integrated land-use and transportation planning called Location Planner. The system integrates a wide variety of spatial models in a flexible and easy-to-use problem solving environment. Users are able to construct a model out of available components and use the model for impact analysis and optimization. Thus, in contrast to existing spatial decision support systems, the proposed system allows users to address a wide range of problems. The paper describes the architecture of the system and an illustrative application. Furthermore, the potentials of the system for land-use and transportation planning are discussed.     

Why Cost Benefit Analysis is perceived as a problematic tool for assessment of transport plans: A process perspective

Academic discussions on Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an appraisal instrument for integrated land use and transportation plans tend to focus on its technical aspects. However, many issues of CBA also arise from process related matters, especially when assessing integrated plans. Using an inductive research design, we explored how these process related issues play out in Dutch planning practices. In two applied research techniques, focus group sessions and open in depth interviews, we focused on process related issues as perceived by CBA participants ranging from plan makers to CBA testers. This article presents the different perceptions of issues in CBA processes. Through these collected perspectives, we found that these issues are multi-layered and present a number of fundamental dilemmas. After relating our empirical data to theory, we conclude that the biggest challenge lies in decreasing the level of mistrust and communication deficits revealed between plan owners and CBA calculators and their respective frames of thinking when assessing complex integrated land use and transportation plans.     

Transportation–land-use interaction: empirical findings in North America,and their implications for modeling

The last two decades have witnessed the implementation of various policies based on land-use to address problems stemming from automobile ownership and use. There are, however, questions with respect to the efficacy of such policies. This paper therefore reviews the literature on empirical studies of the transportation–land-use interaction with the objective of identifying the current state of knowledge concerning the interactions, particularly with respect to the impact land-use policies are likely to have on the system. The focus is on studies conducted in North America. The results are mixed; some studies conclude that urban densities, traditional neighborhood design schemes, and land-use mix have an impact on auto ownership and use. Other studies find the impact of such variables to be at best marginal. Gaps in our understanding of the interaction are identified. These are found to be primarily the result of data limitations and methodological weaknesses. A detailed discussion of the implications of the findings for the development and application of integrated transportation–land-use models is provided, with the recommendation that without such an integrated approach to analyzing the transportation–land-use interaction, any study of impacts of urban form on travel behavior is likely to yield erroneous results.     

Evaluating unintended outcomes of regional smart-growth strategies: Environmental justice and public health concerns

Many urban areas are perusing infill, transit oriented, and other “smart-growth” strategies to address a range of important regional goals. Denser and more mixed use urban development may increase sustainability and improve public health by reducing vehicle travel and increasing the share of trips made by transit, walking and bicycling. Fewer vehicle trips results in fewer greenhouse gas and toxic vehicle emissions, and more trips made by walking and bicycle increases physical activity. Prior research has largely focused on modeling and estimating the potential size of these and other smart-growth strategy benefits. A largely overlooked area is the potential for unexpected public health costs and environmental justice concerns that may result from increasing density. We evaluate regional land-use and transportation planning scenarios developed for the year 2040 by a metropolitan planning organization with a newly developed regional air quality modeling framework. Our results find that a set of regional plans designed by the MPO to promote smart-growth that are estimated to result in less vehicle use and fewer vehicle emissions than a more typical set of plans results in higher population exposure to toxic vehicle emissions. The smart-growth plans also result in greater income-exposure inequality, raising environmental justice concerns. We conclude that a more spatially detailed regional scale air quality analysis can inform the creation of smarter smart-growth plans.     

Factors affecting public transportation usage rate: Geographically weighted regression

As the number of private vehicles grows worldwide, so does air pollution and traffic congestion, which typically constrain economic development. To achieve transportation sustainability and continued economic development, the dependency on private vehicles must be decreased by increasing public transportation usage. However, without knowing the key factors that affect public transportation usage, developing strategies that effectively improve public transportation usage is impossible. Therefore, this study respectively applies global and local regression models to identify the key factors of usage rates for 348 regions (township or districts) in Taiwan. The global regression model, the Tobit regression model (TRM), is used to estimate one set of parameters that are associated with explanatory variables and explain regional differences in usage rates, while the local regression model, geographically weighted regression (GWR), estimates parameters differently depending on spatial correlations among neighbouring regions. By referencing related studies, 32 potential explanatory variables in four categories, social-economic, land use, public transportation, and private transportation, are chosen. Model performance is compared in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran’ I). Estimation results show that the GWR model has better prediction accuracy and better accommodation of spatial autocorrelation. Seven variables are significantly tested, and most have parameters that differ across regions in Taiwan. Based on these findings, strategies are proposed that improve public transportation usage.