Mobility evaluation for urban public transportation

Summary

This paper has reported on a study of relative opportunity—not absolute opportunity. Minimum absolute standards for mobility or accessibility are difficult to justify. Some additional study into the development and application of absolute mobility standards may be warranted.

The application of the mobility evaluation model has primarily focused upon a corridor line‐haul system. Conclusions suggest that such a system will not markedly improve existing transit mobility levels in either the peak hour or the off‐peak. The experimental work has verified this conclusion, and more importantly, it has detailed quantitatively the exact levels and spatial distribution of mobility improvements. However, this study does not include a comprehensive analysis of all methods of mobility enhancement, nor does it undertake a comparison of alternative means of mobility improvement. Certainly other methods to improve access to opportunities should be explored before policy considerations are finalized. These methods include other transit solutions, land use alternatives, socio‐economic policies, and other‐mode transportation alternatives. The accessibility technique and mobility indices approach appears to have general applicability in the analysis of optimal strategies for system evaluation.

Of interest is an examination of alternative feeder transit systems to the corridor line. Additional research with the model might point out the maximum mobility effects expected through improved collector service in the suburbs, with corridor line‐haul to the CBD.

The indices are also readily available for a comparison of mobility patterns for different urban areas. Application of the program to transit and socio‐economic data for a set of cities would yield an indication of the relative mobility levels provided. Such data might be considered as an evaluation criterion for future transit funding by federal officials.

In addition, the model is currently being considered by UMTA as a tool to aid in the evaluation of the equitable distribution of transit system benefits as defined in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.²⁵ The mobility output would serve as an indicator of the levels‐of‐service provided to certain disadvantaged urban groups. For this application the computer model is being altered to achieve compatability with the Transportation Planning System (UTPS) computer model package developed by UMTA.     

Determining the effects of scheduling on automated automobile guideway utilization

This paper develops an analytic approach for measuring the effect of vehicle scheduling and of metering methods required to balance entrance rates among stations on lane capacity utilization of automated automobile guideways. The scheduling process at each entrance is represented by a probabilistic model which generates a system of nonlinear equations. The solution of this system yields the maximum steady state input rates at the entrances to the guideway system. The method developed is applicable to network configurations in which a small number of merges must be scheduled for each vehicle before it enters the guideway. It is demonstrated by application to a corridor guideway serving a major activity center during peak inbound demand, and also it is shown how the approach may be extended to more complex networks.     

Genetic algorithm-based simulation optimization of the ALINEA ramp metering system: a case study in Atlanta

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a case study of the optimal ALINEA ramp metering system model of a corridor of the metro Atlanta freeway. Based on real-world traffic data, this study estimates the origin-destination matrix for the corridor. Using a stochastic simulation-based optimization framework that combines a micro-simulation model and a genetic algorithm-based optimization module, we determine the optimal parameter values of a combined ALINEA ramp metering system with a queue flush system that minimizes total vehicle travel time. We found that the performance of ramp metering with optimized parameters, which is very sensitive possibly because bottlenecks are correlated, outperforms the no control model with its optimized parameters in terms of reducing total travel time.     

A Unified Framework for Selecting a Travel Demand Forecasting Model for Developing Countries

Abstract

The ability to judge and select a model that is appropriate for a particular application is considered to be one of the most important aspects in contemporary transport planning. However, there is no suitable procedure for the systematic selection of a model that is most appropriate for meeting the needs and requirements of a particular planning task. Although there is little literature on the criteria for model assessment and selection methodologies, none can support systematic evaluation of different models versus quality of obtainable data versus efforts for data provision. Such deficiencies support the need for further guidance on a model selection procedure for developing countries where efforts for data provision are highly susceptible to higher sampling and measurement errors. This study presents a unified framework for the systematic model selection process. Evaluation of the framework for a case study of Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania evidences its benefits and applicability.     

A G/G(n)/C/C state‐dependent simulation model for metro station corridor width design

Metro station corridor and passengers are described as a G/G(n)/C/C state‐dependent queuing system with a general random arrival interval G and a general random and state‐dependent service time G(n) to offset the shortcomings in existing design methods. The corresponding G/G(n)/C/C state‐dependent discrete event simulation model is developed, and its high‐fidelity is tested. Then the optimization algorithm based on the simulation model is designed to determine corridor width. The proposed simulation optimization method and the existing analytical optimization methods, based on M/G(n)/C/C and D/D/1/C queuing models, are applied to design corridor width in a numerical example of 48 combinations of passenger flow rates and level of service (LOS). The designed corridor widths are tested in a micro‐simulation model, and the performance measure is compared. The result shows that the corridor widths obtained by the new method are 0.357 m (7.4%) larger than that of the other two methods on average; the area per passenger of the new method increases 10.53% and 11.63%, respectively, compared with that of the other two methods; the widths designed by the new method satisfy the requirement of LOS under various passenger flows, whereas 93% of the corridor widths obtained by the other two methods fail to meet the requirement of LOS, and the corridor widths designed by the new method have high elasticity coefficients of LOS‐width. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A computationally efficient two-stage method for short-term traffic prediction on urban roads

Abstract

Short-term traffic prediction plays an important role in intelligent transport systems. This paper presents a novel two-stage prediction structure using the technique of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) as a data smoothing stage to improve the prediction accuracy. Moreover, a novel prediction method named Grey System Model (GM) is introduced to reduce the dependency on method training and parameter optimisation. To demonstrate the effects of these improvements, this paper compares the prediction accuracies of SSA and non-SSA model structures using both a GM and a more conventional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) prediction model. These methods were calibrated and evaluated using traffic flow data from a corridor in Central London under both normal and incident traffic conditions. The prediction accuracy comparisons show that the SSA method as a data smoothing step before the application of machine learning or statistical prediction methods can improve the final traffic prediction accuracy. In addition, the results indicate that the relatively novel GM method outperforms SARIMA under both normal and incident traffic conditions on urban roads.     

Generic Framework for Transport Network Designs: Applications and Treatment in Intermodal Freight Transport Literature

Abstract

Six principles for the design of transport systems are described, including direct link, corridor, hub‐and‐spoke, connected hubs, static routes, and dynamic routes. The designs are theoretically discussed, defining the operational character of each design and their application in passenger, freight and rail freight transport. The theory is then applied to intermodal freight transport by comparing the terminology used in the paper with that in the scientific literature. The advantages of using a generic terminology over contextual ones are identified from the perspectives of researchers, commercial operators and policy‐makers.     

Towards a general microeconomic model for the operation of public transport

After Vickrey's view, Mohring constructed a microeconomic model to determine the optimal frequency of buses serving a corridor with fixed demand. The main result was that frequency should be proportional to the square root of demand. The role of users' costs was shown to be crucial. This approach has evolved over the past decades, improving our understanding of public transport operations. This paper describes and analyses the evolution of microeconomic models for the analysis of public transport services with parametric demand, leading towards a more comprehensive one. An in-depth review of all the contributions in the academic literature is presented, emphasizing both the treatment of variables and the form of the results mostly in terms of frequency and fleet size. A series of partial new elements is also identified. An extension of Jansson's model for a single period is developed analytically, including the effect of vehicle size on operating costs and the influence of crowding on the value of time. Numerical simulations are used for comparison and analysis. A general model is then proposed where bus operations are optimized accounting for a number of simultaneous relations. Finally, the different models are discussed and compared.     

External Costs of Domestic Container Transportation: Short‐Sea Shipping versus Trucking in Taiwan

Abstract

This paper explores the external costs of domestic container transportation in Taiwan by analysing the origin and destination of current container cargoes. After reviewing an extensive literature survey of methods of external cost, a comparison of external costs between trucking and short sea shipping (SSS) by corridor is made by using a model developed in this paper. Based on the findings that external costs of SSS are considerably lower than truck transport and can be a viable alternative to current domestic container cargo transportation, we discuss the significance and managerial implications of SSS from the perspective of green logistics. In so doing, a top‐down approach is employed for developing government policies, which aim to not only reduce the external costs of domestic container transportation but also promote SSS in Taiwan.     

Optimal deployment of emergency rescue stations in an urban transportation corridor

This paper addresses the deployment issue of emergency rescue stations in an urban transportation corridor, with an aim to effectively reduce the casualties in traffic accidents. On the basis of urban population density, an accident rate distribution function for a corridor is first presented and calibrated, and a damage cost function is proposed to capture the correlation between rescue time and deteriorating health condition of injured passengers. A continuum model is then developed for determining the optimal number and locations of the rescue stations along the corridor and the medical service resource distribution at rescue stations subject to a capital budget constraint. The solution properties of the proposed model are explored analytically. Numerical examples are provided to show the effects of population density, urban form and different deployment schemes (even and uneven) on the rescue station locations. A case study of Wuhan China is employed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in improving the performance of the emergency rescue system.

     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Ground-dwelling birds near the Qinghai-Tibet highway and railway

The Qinghai-Tibet highway and railway cross desolate habitat at elevations of over 4600 m. We assess specie richness and abundance of ground-dwelling birds using strip transects located at a variety of altitudes perpendicular to this transportation corridor. Bird richness, bird abundance, and abundance of rufous-necked snowfinch, were higher adjacent to the roadway than further way.     

Analytical model for calibrating delay at congested bus stops

Abstract

A model is proposed to calculate the overall operating and delay times spent at bus stops due to passenger boarding and alighting and the time lost to queuing caused by bus stop saturation. A formula for line demand at each stop and the interaction between the buses themselves is proposed and applied to different bus stops depending on the number of available berths. The application of this model has quantified significant operational delays suffered by users and operator due to consecutive bus arrival at stops, even with flows below bus stop capacity.     

A Framework for Developing Driving Cycles with On‐Road Driving Data

Abstract

This paper attempts to propose a framework on driving cycle development based on a thorough review of 101 transient driving cycles. A comparison of the driving cycles highlighted that Asian driving is the slowest but most aggressive while European driving is the fastest and smoothest. Further review of the cycle development methodologies identified three major elements for developing a driving cycle; test route selection, data collection and cycle construction methods. A framework was eventually proposed based on these findings and recommendations from this review. First, traffic activity patterns and quantitative statistics should be considered in determining the test routes. Speed data can be collected by using chase car method, on‐board measurement techniques or their hybrid. As for the construction of driving cycle, the matching approach has been more commonly used. It is recommended that the tendency of zero change in acceleration, which has been commonly ignored in the literature, and the application of succession probability at second‐by‐second level should be further explored. A fifth mode, creeping, is also recommended for modal analysis for characterizing urban congested driving conditions.     

A highway corridor planning model: QROAD

This model calculates an optimal investment plan for a highway corridor or number of corridors, subject to budget constraints. The available options include upgrading the current alignment, constructing a bypass highway over a different alignment, or various combinations. The budget constraints can be specified as a total budget restriction, or as an available budget each period. The highway system is described by K different road links. Each link consists of the current alignment which may be described by any number of sections, and a bypass section over a new alignment. The model finds the construction plan for each link that maximizes discounted benefits, subject to the financial constraints on the maintenance and capital expenditures. The problem is formulated as a large combinatorial optimization problem. A Lagrangian relaxation of the budget constraints is used, and the problem decomposes by link. A dynamic programming (DP) model is used to solve for the optimal expansion path for each link, given the dual variables. The sub-gradient dual optimization problem is a linear programming problem which is solved for the optimal dual variables. An application is presented based on the World Bank's Third National Highway Project in India, which is a US$1.3 billion project for upgrading approximately 2000 km of the Indian National Highway System. The project was approved based on results from this model.     

Assessing the social costs of urban transport infrastructure options in low and middle income countries

ABSTRACT

This paper develops cost models for urban transport infrastructure options in situations where motorcycles and various forms of taxis are important modes of transport. The total social costs (TSCs) of conventional bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Monorail, Metro (Elevated Rail), car, motorcycle, Taxi and Uber are calculated for an urban corridor covering operator, user and external costs. Based on the parameters for a 7?km corridor in Hanoi, Vietnam, the results show the lowest average social cost (ASC) transport modes for different ranges of demand. Motorcycle might be the best option at low demand levels while conventional bus has advantages with low-medium demand. At medium demand levels, bus-based technologies and Monorail are competitive options while Metro, with a higher person capacity, is the best alternative at the highest demand levels. Compared to other modes, the ASCs of car and Taxi/Uber are greater because of high capital cost (related to vehicles) per passenger and low occupancy. Transport planners and decision makers in low and middle income countries (LMICs) can draw on the findings of this study. However, various limitations are identified and additional research is suggested.     

Contrasting the direct use of data from traffic radars and video-cameras with traffic simulation in the estimation of road emissions and PM hotspot analysis

This study investigates the effect of traffic volume and speed data on the simulation of vehicle emissions and hotspot analysis. Data from a microwave radar and video cameras were first used directly for emission modelling. They were then used as input to a traffic simulation model whereby vehicle drive cycles were extracted to estimate emissions. To reach this objective, hourly traffic data were collected from three periods including morning peak (6–9 am), midday (11–2 pm), and afternoon peak (3–6 pm) on a weekday (June 23, 2016) along a high-volume corridor in Toronto, Canada. Traffic volumes were detected by a single radar and two video cameras operated by the Southern Ontario Centre for Atmospheric Aerosol Research. Traffic volume and composition derived from the radar had lower accuracy than the video camera data and the radar performance varied by lane exhibiting poorer performance in the remote lanes. Radar speeds collected at a single point on the corridor had higher variability than simulated traffic speeds, and average speeds were closer after model calibration. Traffic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) were estimated using radar data as well as using simulated traffic based on various speed aggregation methods. Our results illustrate the range of emission estimates (NO_x: 4.0–27.0 g; PM₁₀: 0.3–4.8 g; PM_2.5: 0.2–1.3 g) for the corridor. The estimates based on radar speeds were at least three times lower than emissions derived from simulated vehicle trajectories. Finally, the PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 near-road concentrations derived from emissions based on simulated speeds were two or three times higher than concentrations based on emissions derived using radar data. Our findings are relevant for project-level emission inventories and PM hot-spot analysis; caution must be exercised when using raw radar data for emission modeling purposes.     

A decision support system for port selection

Abstract

A number of studies have been carried out on the factors determining port choice, derived from the perspectives of shippers, carriers or both. Recently, some studies using multi-criteria analysis, more specifically Saaty's analytical hierarchy process (AHP), have been undertaken to address port competitiveness and port selection by shipping lines. Based on a review of the literature on port selection, this article proposes a decision support system (DSS) for port selection using AHP methodology. The proposed DSS is web-based and thus it can be accessed by more decision makers and data collection can be carried out faster. Moreover, AHP addresses the issue of how to structure a complex decision problem, identify its criteria, measure the interaction among them and finally synthesise all the information to arrive at priorities, which depict preferences. AHP is able to assist port managers in obtaining a detailed understanding of the criteria and address the port selection problem utilising multi-criteria analysis. This article presents the architecture and the port selection procedure of the web-based DSS, and then illustrates three different cases. It shows how technology advancement can bring positive effects of strategic planning to shipping firms.     

A queuing model analysis of the performance of the Hong Kong container terminals

The growth of container‐handling industry and its impact on Hong Kong's economy have aroused considerable attention in recent decades. Within the recent twenty years, the rapid growth of container‐handling industry has led Hong Kong to become one of the world's busiest container port with over 11 million T.E.U. s (Twenty Feet Equivalent Units) container throughput in one year period. Also the container throughput is expected to reach 15.5 million T.E.U. s by year 2004.

As the success of container‐handling industry is significant, many studies have been conducted relating to this subject. In this paper, an application of a queuing theory model to Kwai Chung Container Terminals is developed and described. Specifically, we consider seasonal changes at the Terminals and focus on their effects on inter‐arrival time and service time of container vessel.

A crucial component of the study relates to the empirical data collected. Besides verifying the validity of the model, those data provide guidelines for developing schemes to manage the seasonal fluctuation of container throughput of the Terminals.