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1.
Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTThis paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance. 相似文献
3.
Since the first railway station choice studies of the 1970s, a substantial body of research on the topic has been completed, primarily in North America, the U.K. and the Netherlands. With many countries seeing sustained growth in rail passenger numbers, which is forecast to continue, station choice models have an important role to play in assessing proposals for new stations or service changes. This paper reviews the modelling approaches adopted, the factors found to influence station choice and the application of models to real-world demand forecasting scenarios. A consensus has formed around using the closed-form multinomial logit and nested logit models, with limited use of more advanced simulation-based models, and the direction effects of a range of factors have been consistently reported. However, there are questions over the validity of applying non-spatial discrete choice models to a context where spatial correlation will be present, in particular with regard to the models’ ability to adequately represent the abstraction behaviours resulting from competition between stations. Furthermore, there has been limited progress towards developing a methodology to integrate a station choice element into the aggregate models typically used to forecast passenger demand for new stations. 相似文献
4.
John F. Mcdonald 《Transportation》1995,22(4):353-369
This article examines urban highway congestion pricing in the instance in which it is not possible to levy a congestion toll on a major portion of the urban road system. This case is pertinent because of technical and/or political constraints. The article uses economic theory and numerical examples to show that the optimum second-best toll can vary appreciably from the optimal tolls in a regime in which efficient tolls can be imposed on all routes. 相似文献
5.
The paper presents new findings on the influence of multi-modal trip attributes on the quality and competitiveness of inter-urban multi-modal train alternatives. The analysis covers the entire trip from origin to destination, including access and egress legs to and from the train network. The focus is on preferences for different feeder modes, railway station types and train service types as well as on the relative influence of time elements and transfer penalties. Data from dedicated surveys are used including individual objective choice sets of 235 multi-modal homebound trips in which train is the main transport mode. The observed trips have origins and destinations within the Rotterdam–Dordrecht region in The Netherlands with an average total trip time of 50 minutes. Hierarchical Nested Logit models are estimated to take account of unobserved similarities between alternatives at the home-end and the activity-end of the trip respectively, resulting in two-level nesting structures which differentiate between intercity (IC) and non-intercity railway station types at the upper level and between transit and private access modes at the lower level. In order to reflect the multi-dimensional structure of the data a more advanced so-called Multi-Nested GEV model according to the Principles of Differentiation has been estimated which significantly improves the explanatory power and stresses the importance of the home-end of the multi-modal trip. 相似文献
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In densely populated and congested urban areas, the travel times in congested multi‐modal transport networks are generally varied and stochastic in practice. These stochastic travel times may be raised from day‐to‐day demand fluctuations and would affect travelers' route and mode choice behaviors according to their different expectations of on‐time arrival. In view of these, this paper presents a reliability‐based user equilibrium traffic assignment model for congested multi‐modal transport networks under demand uncertainty. The stochastic bus frequency due to the unstable travel time of bus route is explicitly considered. By the proposed model, travelers' route and mode choice behaviors are intensively explored. In addition, a stochastic state‐augmented multi‐modal transport network is adopted in this paper to effectively model probable transfers and non‐linear fare structures. A numerical example is given to illustrate the merits of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
The use of differential pricing as a means of traffic management has been advocated by specialists in the field of transport for quite some time. Because of technical and political reasons, a full-scale pricing scheme for the use of road space has yet to be introduced. Applying the principle to a highly automatic rail system, however, is technologically much more feasible. The Mass Transit Railway Corporation of Hong Kong has implemented a so-called revenue neutral peal pricing policy after the completion of a second cross-harbour route- the East Harbour Crossing — in May, 1990. Passengers travelling from Kowloon to the central business district (including Jordon and Tsim Sha Tsui on the Kowloon side and stations from Sheung Wan to Causeway Bay on the Island side) during the morning peak hour are confronted with the following choice: either (i) make use of the Nathan Road Corridor and pay 80 cents on top of normal face; or (ii) take the less congested but in general longer route via the East Harbour Crossing and get a 80 cents discount. The present paper attempts to analyse the effectiveness of this differential pricing policy in diverting passengers from the overcrowded section to the less heavily utilized route. A personal interview survey comprising a total of 1094 successful cases was conducted for this purpose. The logit regression model was employed to analyse the route choice. It is found that income, habit and journey time are the most important variables determining the route choice. The effect of cost or fare difference, although large in terms of magnitude, is only marginally significant in the statistical sense. It is suggested that efforts to change the passengers' habit and measures to shorten the train transfer time at the Quarry Bay Station for the East harbour Crossing users would be more effective in achieving this end. This is especially the case given the current political development in Hong King which renders further enlargement of the price difference a highly difficult proposition. 相似文献
9.
Telecommuting and travel: state of the practice,state of the art 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Patricia L. Mokhtarian 《Transportation》1991,18(4):319-342
This paper provides an overview of the status of telecommuting in the United States, especially as it relates to changes in travel behavior. Regarding the state of the practice, the paper discusses some refinements to the definition of telecommuting that have developed through increased operational experience. It reports several policy statements involving telecommuting, and explores the appeal of telecommuting as a public policy instrument. It highlights some trends in the implementation of home-based and work center-based telecommuting, and suggests that visible public-sector involvement has been crucial to the increased activity in this area.In sketching the state of the art, the paper outlines some frequently-stated hypotheses on telecommuting and travel behavior, and summarizes current empirical findings relating to those hypotheses. Finally, it suggests a variety of topics suitable for further research. These include studying factors influencing the ultimate adoption levels of telecommuting; impacts on energy/air quality, mode choice, and location/urban form; interactions with other transportation demand management strategies; relationships to the traditional urban travel demand forecasting process; cost/benefit tradeoffs; and telecommuting centers. 相似文献
10.
Abstract There is a growing phenomenon of grassroots innovation, that is, that triggered by individual users or communities (physical or virtual) seeking a solution to a personal or societal problem. This has great potential as a new source of sustainable transport innovations, but has received little attention to date. This study conducted 16 in-depth interviews and a workshop with grassroots innovators in transport. A detailed thematic analysis of the interview data identified: catalysts for the idea and the motivation behind its pursuit; the barriers experienced (those that were overcome and those that were not); and the enablers that permitted the innovations to continue and to flourish. The paper concludes by identifying the conditions that need to exist for such innovations to be created, developed and exploited in order that their potential for increasing the sustainability of the transport system can be fulfilled. 相似文献
11.
Exploration of route choice behavior with advanced traveler information using neural network concepts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hai Yang Ryuichi Kitamura Paul P. Jovanis Kenneth M. Vaughn Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty 《Transportation》1993,20(2):199-223
A model of driver's route choice behavior under advanced traveler information system (ATIS) is developed based on data collected from learning experiments using interactive computer simulation. The experiment subjected drivers to 32 simulated days in which they were to choose between the freeway or a side road. A neural network model is used as a convenient modeling technique in this initial phase of the analysis. The results indicated that most subjects made route choices based mainly on their recent experiences. It was also demonstrated that route choice behaviors are related to the personal characteristics as well as the characteristics of the respective routes. Travel experiences have less effect on the choice of the side road compared to the freeway and the results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the model, the acceptance rate of advice, and the quality of advice are closely correlated. The model developed here was for advice consistently provided at a level of 75 percent accuracy. The paper concludes with a discussion of experimental limitations and suggestions for future research. 相似文献
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13.
In this paper, a case study is carried out in Hong Kong for demonstration of the Transport Information System (TIS) prototype. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is presented to forecast the short‐term travel times that can be served as a predicted travel time database for the TIS in Hong Kong. In the TFS, a stochastic deviation coefficient is incorporated to simulate the minute‐by‐minute fluctuation of traffic flows within the peak hour period. The purposes of the case study are: 1) to show the applicability of the TFS for larger‐scale road network; and 2) to illustrate the short‐term forecasting of path travel times in practice. The results of the case study show that the TFS can be applied to real network effectively. The predicted travel times are compared with the observed travel times on the selected paths for an OD pair. The results show that the observed path travel times fall in the 90% confidence interval of the predicted path travel times. 相似文献
14.
Understanding individual travel decisions: results from a commuters survey in Geneva 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present the results of an extended traveler behavior survey conducted in Geneva (Switzerland) in March 1994. In this survey, commuters were asked about the impact of various factors, related to individual or household characteristics and situational, contextual and environmental constraints on their basic travel decisions. In particular, the issues of mode, route and departure time choice were investigated, together with the diversion from normal patterns in response to adverse weather conditions. Some cross cultural comparisons are discussed with respect to the results of a similar survey conducted in Brussels (Belgium) in 1992 (Khattak & de Palma 1995, 1997). 相似文献
15.
This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general
structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model
system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto
allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos
to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment
of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual
and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops
and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment
of stops to tours.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
16.
Validating the results of a route choice simulator 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Peter Bonsall Paul Firmin Monica Anderson Ian Palmer Peter Balmforth 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》1997,5(6):15
This paper describes the validation of a route choice simulator known as VLADIMIR (Variable Legend Assessment Device for Interactive Measurement of Individual Route choice). VLADIMIR is an interactive computer-based tool designed to study drivers’ route choice behaviour. It has been extensively used to obtain data on route choice in the presence of information sources such as Variable Message Signs or In-Car Navigation devices. The simulator uses a sequence of digitized photographs to portray a real network with junctions, links, landmarks and road signs. Subject drivers are invited to make journeys between specified origins and destinations under a range of travel scenarios, during which the simulator automatically records their route choices. This paper describes validation experiments carried out during the period Summer 1994 to Autumn 1995 and reports on the results obtained. Each experiment involved a comparison of routes selected in real life with those driven under simulated conditions in VLADIMIR. The analysis included investigation of the subjects’ own assessment of the realism of the VLADIMIR routes they had chosen, a comparison of models based on the real life routes with models based on VLADIMIR routes, and a statistical comparison of the two sets of routes. After an extensive series of data collection exercises and analyses, we have concluded that a well designed simulator is able to replicate real life route choices with a very high degree of detail and accuracy. Not only was VLADIMIR able to precisely replicate the route choices of drivers who were familiar with the network but it also appears capable of representing the kind of errors made and route choice strategies adopted by less familiar drivers. Furthermore, evidence is presented to suggest that it can accurately replicate route choice responses to roadside VMS information. 相似文献
17.
In the US, the rise in motorized vehicle travel has contributed to serious societal, environmental, economic, and public health
problems. These problems have increased the interest in encouraging non-motorized modes of travel (walking and bicycling).
The current study contributes toward this objective by identifying and evaluating the importance of attributes influencing
bicyclists’ route choice preferences. Specifically, the paper examines a comprehensive set of attributes that influence bicycle
route choice, including: (1) bicyclists’ characteristics, (2) on-street parking, (3) bicycle facility type and amenities,
(4) roadway physical characteristics, (5) roadway functional characteristics, and (6) roadway operational characteristics.
The data used in the analysis is drawn from a web-based stated preference survey of Texas bicyclists. The results of the study
emphasize the importance of a comprehensive evaluation of both route-related attributes and bicyclists’ demographics in bicycle
route choice decisions. The empirical results indicate that travel time (for commuters) and motorized traffic volume are the
most important attributes in bicycle route choice. Other route attributes with a high impact include number of stop signs,
red light, and cross-streets, speed limits, on-street parking characteristics, and whether there exists a continuous bicycle
facility on the route.
Ipek N. Sener is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. She received her M.S. degrees in Civil Engineering and in Architecture, and her B.S. degree in Civil Engineering from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. Naveen Eluru is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. He received his M.S. degree in Civil Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, and his Bachelors in Technology Degree from Indian Institute of Technology in Madras, India. Chandra R. Bhat is a Professor in Transportation at The University of Texas at Austin. He has contributed toward the development of advanced econometric techniques for travel behavior analysis, in recognition of which he received the 2004 Walter L. Huber Award and the 2005 James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and the 2008 Wilbur S. Smith Distinguished Transportation Educator Award from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). He is the immediate past chair of the Transportation Research Board Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting and the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research. 相似文献
Chandra R. Bhat (Corresponding author)Email: |
Ipek N. Sener is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. She received her M.S. degrees in Civil Engineering and in Architecture, and her B.S. degree in Civil Engineering from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. Naveen Eluru is currently a Ph.D. candidate in transportation engineering at The University of Texas at Austin. He received his M.S. degree in Civil Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, and his Bachelors in Technology Degree from Indian Institute of Technology in Madras, India. Chandra R. Bhat is a Professor in Transportation at The University of Texas at Austin. He has contributed toward the development of advanced econometric techniques for travel behavior analysis, in recognition of which he received the 2004 Walter L. Huber Award and the 2005 James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and the 2008 Wilbur S. Smith Distinguished Transportation Educator Award from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). He is the immediate past chair of the Transportation Research Board Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting and the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research. 相似文献
18.
Mohammed Ohidul Haque 《Transportation》1992,19(1):43-57
For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D2) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed. 相似文献
19.
Álvaro Costa Ruben Fernandes 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2012,46(2):269-284
Technological change and incremental technology, at various levels, are believed to have played an important role in the success of urban public transport in Europe. In this paper, a historical overview of the evolution of different transport modes across different European cities is presented. Our major concern is with the processes of diffusion of urban transport modes in European cities and, in particular, with the factors, mainly of an economic nature, that may explain their rates of adoption across Europe. Among these factors, special attention is given to the role played by the dimension and organisation of public transport markets in the rates of adoption of different public transport modes. The main conclusion of the paper is that the success of the introduction of a new transport mode appeared to be mainly related to its ability to provide cheaper and more reliable transport services compared with previous transport modes, and that, in the case of the electric tram, this was achieved by transforming of the structure of the market relating to this urban transport mode into monopolies. 相似文献
20.
In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector. 相似文献