Considering landscape in strategic transport planning

The implementation of transport infrastructure plans often has significant impacts on landscapes, especially where new roads and railroads are built. Key decisions regarding the building of new transport infrastructures are often made on a strategic level, where the long-term development of a region is determined, and before the infrastructure project actually begins. In this paper we build on previous advances in Strategic Environmental Assessment theory by linking the process-related issues of the integration of these assessments in general to landscape issues in particular; we use a multiple case study of Swedish transport planning.Results of this study indicate that the particular planning processes we looked at failed to carry out strategic landscape assessments and integrate landscape assessments in the planning process. We conclude that this can be explained by the flawed procedure of assessing landscape, the unhelpful structuring of SEA reports and by process-related issues. The idea of applying a holistic understanding of landscape, in line with the ELC, was notably absent from the studied cases. The lack of consideration of landscape as a whole can be attributed to poor use of dissipated and fragmented knowledge about landscapes as well as weaknesses in the assessment procedure. Our results indicate that the traditions of EIA are still prevalent in the practice of SEA, despite the fact that SEA theory has moved away from EIA-based methodology to become a tool for integrating environmental concerns into decision-making and for paying close attention to strategic decision processes.     

The rationality of transport investment packages

Investment packages, involving several modes, emerge as a widely used element in urban transport policies. Package policies entail some specific possibilities and traps in the planning and decision-making processes. To assess these properties, the concepts of instrumental and communicative rationality are applied. These rationality concepts serve to structure the pro and con arguments concerning four crucial considerations in package planning: The use of formal impact assessment methods, the overall size and changeability of the investment packages, the share of road vs green modes investments, and the sequence of implementation. These issues are investigated by drawing on experience from transport investment packages in six Norwegian cities.     

Planning transport for social inclusion: An accessibility-activity participation approach

Social equity is increasingly becoming an important objective in transport planning and project evaluation. This paper provides a framework and an empirical investigation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) examining the links between public transit accessibility and the risks of social exclusion, simply understood as the suppressed ability to conduct daily activities at normal levels. Specifically, we use a large-sample travel survey to present a new transport-geography concept termed participation deserts, neighbourhood-level clusters of lower than expected activity participation. We then use multivariate models to estimate where, and for whom, improvements in transit accessibility will effectively increase activity participation and reduce risks of transport-related social exclusion. Our results show that neighbourhoods with high concentrations of low-income and zero-car households located outside of major transit corridors are the most sensitive to having improvements in accessibility increase daily activity participation rates. We contend that transit investments providing better connections to these neighbourhoods would have the greatest benefit in terms of alleviating existing inequalities and reducing the risks of social exclusion. The ability for transport investments to liberate suppressed activity participation is not currently being predicted or valued in existing transport evaluation methodologies, but there is great potential in doing so in order to capture the social equity benefits associated with increasing transit accessibility.     

An agent-based framework for cooperative planning of intermodal freight transport chains

The recent development of Intelligent Transportation Systems offers the possibility of cooperative planning of multi-actor systems in a distributed framework, by enabling prompt exchange of information among actors. This paper proposes a modeling framework for cooperation in intermodal freight transport chains as multi-actor systems. In this framework, the problem of optimizing freight transportation is decomposed into a suitable set of sub-problems, each representing the operations of an actor which are connected using a negotiation scheme. A Discrete Event model is developed which optimizes the system on a rolling horizon basis to account for the dynamics of intermodal freight transport operations. This framework allows for an event driven short/medium term planning of intermodal freight transport chains. The proposed methodology is evaluated using a realistic case study, and the results are compared against the First-Come-First-Served strategy, highlighting the significance of cooperation in systems operating close to capacity.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

Flexible strategic planning of transport systems

Abstract

This paper presents a decision support methodology for long-range planning of transport systems that exhibits strategic flexibility and stochastic system parameters. Unlike one-off strategic decisions, flexible decisions should be dynamically reformulated with time. The proposed methodology is based on the construction of a tree structure of multiple interlinked tactical planning problems, each associated with a scenario in the tree, where problems under scenarios at intermediate dates incorporate in their formulation the solution of the corresponding problems associated with past (future) connected scenarios. The resulting tree structure of interconnected planning decisions becomes a strategic-tactical decision support system that allows managers to formulate suitable flexible strategic decisions that mitigate the consequences associated with downside scenarios while taking advantage of the upside opportunities. The methodology is applied to the planning of a fleet deployment through charter contracts where contract prices depend on both market behavior and the duration of the contract itself.     

Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case

Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies.     

Optimization of tunnel tolls in land use and transport planning

The task of transport planning is to determine cost-effective methods of providing and improving mobility, which can include minimizing traffic congestion. A cost-effective solution to transport problems should consist of a land use pattern, a transport system an a set of road pricing policies that together bring demand and supply into balance in an efficient and equitable way. The conventional approach aimed to produce comprehensive, long-term plans for land use and transport in considerable detail, but tended to ignore the role of road pricing policy, thus ending up with solutions that might not be efficient or economical. This feature of sub-optimal road pricing policy is accentuated by the overall growth in car use, which has generated problems with the efficient use of road space. This paper presents a computer analysis system (or model) which will enable the analysis of coordinated tunnel toll pricing policies by optimising an “objective function” while satisfying the associated and other constraints. The possibility of integrating the optimal road pricing policies in the land use and transport planning are discussed. A case study based on Hong Kong data demonstrates the efficiency of optimizing tolls on two of the three harbour crossing tunnels in Hong Kong.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

Accessibility indicators for transport planning

Both perceptual and measurable specifications of accessibility are reviewed and their relevance to transport planning established. The wide variety of analytical forms which can be used to quantify different aspects of accessibility are categorised and grouped by conceptual basis. The different forms of accessibility index are then related to underlying theories which link consumer demand, evaluation and accessibility.     

Future prospects for personal security in travel by public transport

This paper reports findings from a project focused on understanding the interaction between transport technologies and user needs and perceptions in supporting personal security in travel by public transport. The research engaged over 60 experts from across the UK transport sector in a combination of interviews, workshops and scenario planning activities to address a set of four application areas in relation to secure travel. These areas were information provision, travel disruption, automated transport services and flexible transport services. Four future scenario narratives (to a 2040 time horizon) were developed for each application area. A final workshop consolidated and reviewed the narrative scenarios and pulled out key themes and priority issues for policy, practice and research for the near term. Consequently a set of policy recommendations, operator and business opportunities, knowledge gaps and research priorities were identified to support and enhance provision for personal security in travel by public transport.     

Integrating e-scooters in urban transportation: Problems,policies, and the prospect of system change

Throughout the world, cities seek to ease transport-related problems of congestion, air pollution, noise, and traffic injuries. Urban transport planners have welcomed e-scooters as an alternative to motorized individual transport, specifically the car. The public has met e-scooters with both enthusiasm and scepticism, as cities have struggled with unforeseen outcomes such as forms of irresponsible riding, cluttering, or vandalism. This paper investigates the challenges associated with the introduction of e-scooters in ten major cities, based on a content analysis of local media reports. News items (n = 173) were identified through Internet searches and include print media, TV and radio websites. Concerns prior to and after the introduction of e-scooters are assessed, analysed, and interpreted in the context of new policies for this transport mode. Results suggest that many cities have moved through trial and error stages in their search for appropriate legislation. The paper concludes that it is prudent for urban planners to introduce policies regarding maximum speeds, mandatory use of bicycle infrastructure, and dedicated parking, as well as to limit the number of licensed operators. Where negative public opinion can be averted, e-scooters stand a chance to become a disruptive niche innovation with the potential to transform urban transport systems.     

A multi-layer scenario analysis for sustainable international transport

This article considers the development of the international transport sector based on four globalization scenarios. These four images of the future transportation market are constructed at three different levels (global, European and Dutch). The possible consequences of these scenarios are mapped out not only by key aspects such as modal split and spatial organization but also by providing empirical insights into expected transport flows for both passenger and freight transport in 2020 based on data from 1995.     

When human beings are like drunk robots: Driverless vehicles,ethics, and the future of transport

It is often argued that driverless vehicles will save lives. In this paper, we treat the ethical case for driverless vehicles seriously and show that it has radical implications for the future of transport. After briefly discussing the current state of driverless vehicle technology, we suggest that systems that rely upon human supervision are likely to be dangerous when used by ordinary people in real-world driving conditions and are unlikely to satisfy the desires of consumers. We then argue that the invention of fully autonomous vehicles that pose a lower risk to third parties than human drivers will establish a compelling case against the moral permissibility of manual driving. As long as driverless vehicles aren’t safer than human drivers, it will be unethical to sell them. Once they are safer than human drivers when it comes to risks to 3rd parties, then it should be illegal to drive them: at that point human drivers will be the moral equivalent of drunk robots. We also describe two plausible mechanisms whereby this ethical argument may generate political pressure to have it reflected in legislation. Freeing people from the necessity of driving, though, will transform the relationship people have with their cars, which will in turn open up new possibilities for the transport uses of the automobile. The ethical challenge posed by driverless vehicles for transport policy is therefore to ensure that the most socially and environmentally beneficial of these possibilities is realised. We highlight several key policy choices that will determine how likely it is that this challenge will be met.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Insights on disruptions as opportunities for transport policy change

Policy change is characterised as being slow and incremental over long time periods. In discussing a radical shift to a low carbon economy, many researchers identify a need for a more significant and rapid change to transport policy and travel patterns. However, it is not clear what is meant by rapid policy change and what conditions might be needed to support its delivery.Our contention in this paper is that notions of habit and stability dominate thinking about transport trends and the policy responses to them. We limit variability in our data collection and seek to design policies and transport systems that broadly support the continuation of existing practices. This framing of the policy context limits the scale of change deemed plausible and the scope of activities and actions that could be used to effect it.This paper identifies evidence from two sources to support the contention that more radical policy change is possible. First, there is a substantial and on-going churn in household travel behaviour which, harnessed properly over the medium term, could provide the raw material for steering behaviour change. Secondly, there is a growing evidence base analysing significant events at local, regional and national level which highlight how travellers can adapt to major change to network conditions, service availability and social norms. Taken together, we contend that the population is far more adaptable to major change than the policy process currently assumes.Disruptions and the responses to them provide a window on the range of adaptations that are possible (and, given that we can actually observe people carrying them out, could be more widely acceptable) given the current configuration of the transport system. In other words, if we conceptualise the system as one in which disruptions are commonplace, then different policy choices become tractable. Policy change itself can also be seen as a positive disruption, which could open up a raft of new opportunities to align policy implementation with the capacity for change. However, when set against the current framing of stability and habit, disruption can also be a major political embarrassment. We conclude that rather than being inherently problematic, disruption are in fact an opportunity through which to construct a different approach to transport policy that might enable rather than frustrate significant, low carbon change.     

Pick‐up locations and bus allocation for transit‐based evacuation planning with demand uncertainty

This paper develops a decision‐support model for transit‐based evacuation planning under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty refers to the uncertainty associated with the number of transit‐dependent evacuees. A robust optimization model is proposed to determine the optimal pick‐up points for evacuees to assemble, and allocate available buses to transport the assembled evacuees between the pick‐up locations and different public shelters. The model is formulated as a mixed‐integer linear program and is solved via a cutting plane scheme. The numerical example based on the Sioux Falls network demonstrates that the robust plan yields lower total evacuation time and is reliable in serving the realized evacuee demand. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The applicability of non-cooperative game theory in transport analysis

Various models that incorporate concepts from Non-Cooperative Game Theory (NCGT) are described in the transport literature. Game Theory provides powerful tools for analysing transport systems, but these tools have some drawbacks that should be recognised. In the current paper we review games that describe transport problems and discuss them within a uniform context. Although the paper does not introduce new tools, it presents insights concerning the relations between transport models and games. We divide existing games into groups and show that some common features characterise multiple games. We distinguish between games that make a conceptual contribution and games that are suitable for application. Compact or symmetric game structures make remarkable observations but often do not support actual decision-making. Less aesthetic formats, most of which are Stackelberg games between authorities and travellers, are stronger as instruments that assist in determining real-life policies; these formulations can be treated by practitioners as mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints and not as games. Yaron Hollander is currently conducting economic research of bus reliability at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. He previously worked for the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology; for the Israel Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Joseph N. Prashker is a professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology. Till recently he served as head of the Transportation Research Institute at the Technion. His interests are behavioural demand models, network analysis, and Game Theory applications in transportation.     

Implications of globalization for co 2 emissions from transport

Transport accounts for about 25% of global CO 2 emissions. Transport activities are on the rise in the coming decades. Would associated CO 2 emissions move upwards as well, and at what rate? The present paper explores the future of these CO 2 emissions, starting from four scenarios for global transport. Considering fuel consumption, energy efficiencies in transport, occupancy rates of transport means, size of cars on the market, and possible environmental policies we find CO 2 emissions are persistently increasing, especially in the less wealthy areas of the world. In Europe, policies that attempt to control mobility and also limit CO 2 emissions may succeed in reducing emissions growth by about 30%. Efforts to increase energy efficiency of transport, in particular road transport, would contribute most to such reduction.     

Built environment and mode choice relationship for commute travel in the city of Rajkot,India

Metropolitan areas around the world are looking for sustainable strategies to reduce use of private automobiles, energy consumption and emissions, often achieved by built environment interventions that encourage use of sustainable modes of transport. This study contributes by providing the empirical evidence on the relation between built environment and mode choice in context of Indian city of Rajkot. Using personal interview data and data available from Rajkot Municipal Corporation it is observed that there is a strong tendency among Rajkot residents to preselect their residential location to suit their modal preferences. This is especially true for non-motorized transport users. Among the built environment variables, access to destination and land use related indicators also have significant influence on mode choice. The study Infers that the land use policy should focus on accessibility and mixing of diverse uses, and transport supply will have to be location based to support non-motorized and public transport travel.