A fuzzy-based system for incident detection in urban street networks

Detecting incidents on urban streets or arterials using loop detector data is quite challenging. The pattern of the incident could be quite similar to non-incident cases as intersections get congested. This paper describes the development of a fuzzy logic for incident detection. An Integrated System for Incident Management (

-sim) was developed. An integral component of such system is a microscopic simulator,

-sim-s, an object-oriented model that allows for virtual detector installations at different locations, modeling different intersection layouts, traffic control types and timing, and link characteristics.

-sim-s was utilized to generate various incident scenarios and extracting associated detectors’ accumulative counts. A data clustering technique was utilized to consolidate the various incident scenarios into a single data set for the development of the Fuzzy Logic for incident detection at intersections (

-sim-fl). The

-sim-fl uses the detector data as well as other link properties in flagging detecting incidents.The

-sim-fl can be used to indicate the possibility of an incident, a stalled vehicle, or a sort of traffic disturbance. The devised logic was validated using separate simulation-based incident scenarios.     

A modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale

The paper reports a modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale. It allows joint analysis of choices made by end-consumers (assumed to be families) and retailers. These movements are examined at two levels: analysis of commodity flows, in terms of quantity, generated by the consumption of commodities; analysis of commodity flows, in terms of vehicles, due to restocking. The first level allows us to calculate the goods quantity flows due to consumption and restocking; the second level allows us to determine the service, vehicles used and target time, as well as the route chosen for restocking sales outlets in order to estimate vehicle flows on the urban/metropolitan transportation network. The modelling system is a multi-step model and considers a disaggregated approach for each decisional level.     

Travel demand in the US urban areas: A system dynamic panel data approach

Using panel data from 85 urban areas over a 20-year period and applying a system panel data approach, this paper examines the relationship between travel demand in terms of per-capita VMT and urban spatial characteristics. Regression results show that road density and urban spatial size have positive and statistically significant effects on travel demand in the US urban areas. Urban population density and urban congestion have negative and statistically significant effects on travel demand.     

Japan's urban transportation system in the major transport spheres

The urban areas in Japan have undergone rapid changes in the last two and one-half decades. At the same time, the urban transportation system has been faced with numerous problems which need to be solved urgently. This paper presents the development stage and problems in the three largest metropolitan areas, designated as transport spheres, in Japan. Japan's problems in urban transportation are similar to those of most Western nations with regard to such issues as rapid urbanization, growth in travel, increasing auto ownership, growing transit operating deficits, rising wages and air pollution. The differences are the large modal split of transit from automobile trips, major expansion of the rail transit network, and the large number of transit operators in each urban area in Japan. In addition, governmental policies to help solve the urban transport problems are briefly described. In order to make the policies effective, coordination among government agencies is required. The establishment of a unified government agency is regarded as the first priority in dealing with the urban transport problem. It is expected that the government will offer bold new countermeasures to cope with urban transportation problems.This report was accomplished with the kind assistance of Professor Jerry B. Schneider, Departments of Civil Engineering and Urban Planning, University of Washington, and Mr. Satoshi Inoue, an official of the Ministry of Transport in Japan, who is currently studying at the University of Washington.     

A model of an urban transportation system formulated as a multiobjective mathematical programming problem under uncertainty

An urban transportation system formulated in terms of a multiobjective mixed integer linear fractional programming (MOMILFP) problem under uncertainty is considered. The system is based on two means of public transportation i.e., trams and buses. One takes into account the factors of both passengers' and operator's concern, whose objectives are, generally, in conflict. The real uncertainty and imprecision of data is modeled by L-R type fuzzy numbers. To solve the fuzzy MOMILFP problem an interactive method is utilized. As an illustration of that approach an application to Poznan's urban transportation system is presented.     

A framework for urban freight policy analysis

This paper provides an overview of the urban freight process, in the context of the supply and demand aspects of freight. A framework for analysis is developed, and within that framework, particular aspects of the urban freight process are described. Issues of concern from a public policy viewpoint are highlighted.

Seven main instruments related to public policy are introduced and their application described — taxes and subsidies, regulations, investment, operational instruments, planning, public ownership and research.

It is concluded that the importance of urban freight to the community and its relevance to urban transport justifies a higher level of attention in transport planning and policy formulation, and that there are a wide range of policy instruments available to enable this to be done. The objective of such planning and policy making needs to be specified in each specific context.     

A model of stoppings on urban bus routes

The amount of time required to pick up and discharge passengers is an important issue in the planning and modeling of urban bus systems. Several past studies have employed models of this component of bus travel time which are based, in part, on a model of the number of stoppings the bus makes to pick up or discharge passengers. Most past versions of this model have assumed that expected demand does not vary from stop to stop or from trip to trip, but that the number of passengers demanding service at any given stop during any given trip follows a Poisson distribution. An alternative model is derived, based on the assumption that expected demand varies among stops and times of day but is fixed from day to day at any given stop and time of day. Boarding and alighting survey data are used to verify that the “average-demand” Poisson model consistently overestimates the number of stoppings and to calibrate an approximate version of the alternative model. A stop-spacing optimization model previously developed by Kikuchi and Vuchic is reevaluated using the alternative stopping model in place of the average demand model used in the original version. The results are found to be considerably different, thus indicating that transit route optimization models are sensitive to the way in which stopping processes are modeled.     

A planning methodology for intelligent urban transportation systems

Recent developments in intelligent transportation systems pose new challenges and opportunities for urban transportation planning. To meet these challenges and to exploit these opportunities, a framework for a new transportation planning methodology has been developed. The methodology operates in a computer environment, called PLANiTS (Planning and Analysis Integration for Intelligent Transportation Systems), designed to facilitate the entire planning process form problem identification, through idea generation and analysis, on to prioritization and programming. To assist in problem identification, PLANiTS provides graphic representation of current conditions, including traffic, air pollution, accidents, and projections of future conditions. A computerized knowledge base, containing information about possible strategies and their effects, and a model base, containing transportation and other analysis models, are used to guide the user in identifying potentially effective strategies and performing the appropriate analysis. To facilitate the use of these tools, PLANiTS provides computer support of group processes such as brainstorming, deliberation, and consensus seeking. PLANiTS is designed for use in urban transportation planning at the local, regional, and state levels; it is intended to support a variety of participants in the planning process including transportation professionals, decision makers in transportation agencies (often local elected officials), citizens, and interest groups. Recognizing that transportation planning is essentially a deliberative, political process, PLANiTS is designed to inform and facilitate, but not replace, the political decision-making process.     

A GIS-based planning approach to locating urban rail terminals

This paper develops a flexible GIS-based methodology for evaluating the potential locations of terminal park-and-ride facilities along urban rail lines. The methodology differs from political-based approaches and traditional travel demand modeling in its use of an objective measure of accessibility to gage the suitability of a site. The methodology begins by constructing an index of derived demand for rail usage based on the local demographics. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used as a means of constructing an index of derived demand consistent with other passenger surveys. Next, trade areas or commutersheds are calculated for each candidate park-and-ride location based on realistic measures of accessibility and network based drive times, taking into account competition among candidates for riders. Following the analysis, the candidate locations and their commutersheds are delineated and visualized in the GIS environment. In summary, application of this method produces a site-specific suitability index that may be used to rank and compare potential park-and-ride locations. We illustrate how our approach fits within the context of the larger-scale corridor study as a complimentary means of refining the location of urban rail stations. The analysis uses the proposed rail system for Columbus Ohio as a case study. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Efficiency of urban public transit: A meta analysis

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to provide a statistical overview of the literature on public transit efficiency performance. Second, to statistically explain the variation in efficiency findings reported in the literature. To this end, first some key concepts of efficiency analysis will be introduced, while next the different frontier methodologies that are used in the literature will be discussed. The empirical part of this paper consists of a statistical summary of the literature as well as meta-regression analyses for different samples of the literature in order to identify key determinants of technical efficiency (TE) of public transit operators. For a broad sample of observations, we found significant and consistent effects of the type of database, region and output measurement method. For the sample of non-parametric studies we found that the type of frontier assumptions also have an impact on the efficiency ratio. Further results show that there is no statistical difference in TE ratios between parametric and non-parametric studies. Finally, we found a positive univariate relationship between the number of inputs in the estimated specification and the efficiency ratio.     

A basic mathematical model for evacuation problems in urban areas

Real life situations like floods, hurricanes or chemical accidents may cause the evacuation of a certain area to rescue the affected population. To enable a fast and a safe evacuation a basic mixed-integer evacuation model has been developed that provides a reorganization of the traffic routing of a certain area for the case of an evacuation. This basic problem of evacuation minimizes the evacuation-time while prohibiting conflicts within intersections. Our evacuation model is a dynamic network flow problem with additional variables for the number and direction of used lanes and with additional complicating constraints.Because of the size of the time-expanded network, the computational effort required by standard software is already very high for tiny instances. To deal with realistic instances we propose a heuristic approach.     

A three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram for mixed bi-modal urban networks

Recent research has studied the existence and the properties of a macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) for large urban networks. The MFD should not be universally expected as high scatter or hysteresis might appear for some type of networks, like heterogeneous networks or freeways. In this paper, we investigate if aggregated relationships can describe the performance of urban bi-modal networks with buses and cars sharing the same road infrastructure and identify how this performance is influenced by the interactions between modes and the effect of bus stops. Based on simulation data, we develop a three-dimensional vehicle MFD (3D-vMFD) relating the accumulation of cars and buses, and the total circulating vehicle flow in the network. This relation experiences low scatter and can be approximated by an exponential-family function. We also propose a parsimonious model to estimate a three-dimensional passenger MFD (3D-pMFD), which provides a different perspective of the flow characteristics in bi-modal networks, by considering that buses carry more passengers. We also show that a constant Bus–Car Unit (BCU) equivalent value cannot describe the influence of buses in the system as congestion develops. We then integrate a partitioning algorithm to cluster the network into a small number of regions with similar mode composition and level of congestion. Our results show that partitioning unveils important traffic properties of flow heterogeneity in the studied network. Interactions between buses and cars are different in the partitioned regions due to higher density of buses. Building on these results, various traffic management strategies in bi-modal multi-region urban networks can then be integrated, such as redistribution of urban space among different modes, perimeter signal control with preferential treatment of buses and bus priority.     

A GIS-Based approach for estimating truck flow patterns in urban settings

This paper describes how a Geographic Information System (GIS) is being used to help estimate multi-class truck flows in an urban setting. Emphasis is placed on the reasons why this approach is valuable, the specific GIS tools and techniques employed, the value added by employing a GIS-based approach, and the results being obtained. These findings are generalized to describe the benefits that might be expected in other situations where a similar modeling approach is used.     

The planning of urban bus routes and frequencies: A survey

Urban bus services still play an important role in the movement of people in Britain, although since the 1950's bus patronage has been declining and costs of operation have been increasing. Most of the urban bus networks in Britain (and to a very large extent the Western World) have developed or evolved over the years and it is sometimes said that, despite the changing conditions of bus transport, few of these bus networks in Britain have undergone major re-organisation. A survey was carried out to ascertain this view and to establish the approaches used by British urban bus operators.Five approaches to the planning of urban bus routes and frequencies have been identified: (1) manual; (2) Market Analysis Project; (3) systems analysis; (4) systems analysis with interactive graphics; and (5) mathematical. Previous research in, and application of, the different approaches are described and examined.Between 1970 and 1980, 82.4% of those British urban operators who responded to the survey carried out some kind of major bus study. The survey results run counter to the view that there has been little recent change in urban bus networks in Britain, but the alleged conservatism of the bus industry appears when the approaches used for re-planning bus services are examined - 71.4% of the operators used a manual approach and only a meagre 28.6% made use of simple assignment techniques to predict the potential passenger impacts of the alternative networks appraised.     

A shockwave profile model for traffic flow on congested urban arterials

In this paper a new traffic flow model for congested arterial networks, named shockwave profile model (SPM), is presented. Taking advantage of the fact that traffic states within a congested link can be simplified as free-flow, saturated, and jammed conditions, SPM simulates traffic dynamics by analytically deriving the trajectories of four major shockwaves: queuing, discharge, departure, and compression waves. Unlike conventional macroscopic models, in which space is often discretized into small cells for numerical solutions, SPM treats each homogeneous road segment with constant capacity as a section; and the queuing dynamics within each section are described by tracing the shockwave fronts. SPM is particularly suitable for simulating traffic flow on congested signalized arterials especially with queue spillover problems, where the steady-state periodic pattern of queue build-up and dissipation process may break down. Depending on when and where spillover occurs along a signalized arterial, a large number of queuing patterns may be possible. Therefore it becomes difficult to apply the conventional approach directly to track shockwave fronts. To overcome this difficulty, a novel approach is proposed as part of the SPM, in which queue spillover is treated as either extending a red phase or creating new smaller cycles, so that the analytical solutions for tracing the shockwave fronts can be easily applied. Since only the essential features of arterial traffic flow, i.e., queue build-up and dissipation, are considered, SPM significantly reduces the computational load and improves the numerical efficiency. We further validated SPM using real-world traffic signal data collected from a major arterial in the Twin Cities. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. We expect that in the future this model can be applied in a number of real-time applications such as arterial performance prediction and signal optimization.     

Comparative analysis of transit assignment: evidence from urban railway system in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

This paper empirically compares the performance of six traffic assignment methods using the same empirical dataset of route choice. Multinomial logit (MNL), structured multinomial probit (SMNP), user equilibrium (UE), logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (SUE), probit-based SUE, and all-or-nothing (AON) assignment methods are applied to the comparative analysis. The investigated methods include those with three types of error components in their cost functions and two types of flow dependencies. Four methods of generating the route choice set are also compared for use as stochastic traffic assignment methods. The revealed preference data of urban rail route choice in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area are used for the case analysis. The empirical case analysis shows that probit-based SUE provides the best accuracy but requires the longest computation time. It also shows that the heuristics used to generate the choice set influence the method’s accuracy, while the incorporation of route commonality and in-vehicle congestion significantly improves its accuracy. Finally, the implications for practical rail planning are discussed on the basis of the analysis results.     

A causal inference approach to measure the vulnerability of urban metro systems

Transportation - Transit operators need vulnerability measures to understand the level of service degradation under disruptions. This paper contributes to the literature with a novel causal...     

Transport planning for urban areas: A retrospective look and future prospects

This paper examines the evolution of urban transport planning since the 1960′s, identifies the key trends that have influenced such planning, describes the current state of urban transport planning, and speculates on the important characteristics that will influence urban transport planning over the next several decades. Fifteen planning conferences since 1957 are reviewed to show the changing perspectives on planning from the professional community. Ten areas are identified that will provide special challenge to future transport planners—demographic changes, the importance of economic production and market forces for transport system performance, multimodal perspectives for transport planning, adopting an operations focus, an important role for technology, developing a sense of community, laying the groundwork for pricing, integrating transport decision making with growth management, transport planning within a sustainability framework, and providing greater accountability of the decision making and planning processes.