The association between transit access and auto ownership: evidence from Guangzhou,China

In many developing countries, massive investment in transit infrastructure is concurrent with the proliferation of automobiles. Planners expect that investment can slow the growth of auto ownership. However, few studies have examined the relationships between transit access and auto ownership in developing countries, whereas research in developed countries offers mixed findings and the outcomes may not be applicable to developing countries. This study employs a random effect ordered probit model on data collected from Guangzhou residents in 2011–2012. We find that transit access is negatively associated with auto ownership, after controlling for demographics and other built environment variables. This result suggests that, although income is the dominant driver for auto ownership in growing developing countries, transit investment is a promising strategy to slow the growth of auto ownership. This study also highlights the importance of addressing spatial dependency in clustered data.     

Has the transport-led economic growth effect reached a peak in China? A panel threshold regression approach

Using China’s province-level panel data from 1987 to 2010, this study explores the optimal level of transport infrastructure accumulation maximizing the growth rate. We investigate under what circumstances can additional transportation infrastructure capacity positively affect economic growth, based on panel threshold regression models. Our empirical findings suggest that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the stock of transport infrastructure and the long-run growth rate. The magnitude of transport-led economic growth effect significantly depends on the level of the existing transport network. The empirical results identify two endogenous cut-off points of efficiency of transport-led economic growth effect. When the highway network density is lower than 0.17 km/km², an insignificant positive relationship between highway infrastructure accumulation and economic growth was found. When the highway density is estimated between 0.17 and 0.38 km/km² or higher than 0.38 km/km², expanding the highway network has a significant positive effect on economic growth, but the magnitude of the impact is weaker in the latter, with the estimated coefficients equal to 0.23 and 0.09 respectively. Although China still enjoys a positive economic growth effect led by building more large-scale highway infrastructure, the magnitude of the effects of most provinces in China has already passed the saturation point and continuously expanding the highway network is not very productive.     

Logistics as a driving force for development under the Belt and Road Initiative – the Chinese model for developing countries

ABSTRACT

An important objective of “the Belt and Road Initiative” is to promote the economic growth of countries in the region. China’s successful development experience, proposed in the initial stage of reform, can be summarised as “Looking for development, building the highway first”. This study is the first to evaluate whether logistics infrastructure has indeed contributed to economic growth by employing an error correction model with panel data from 2003 to 2014. In addition, we compare the influence levels of different sectors of logistics infrastructure in different regions, i.e. developed and developing regions. We focus on developing regions as they represent good development experiences for developing countries in the Silk Road Economic Belt. For developing regions, we find that the most influential factors are telecommunication and airway transportation, which should be the foci of attention in order to promote economic growth and reduce inter-region economic inequalities. The research confirms that logistics is indeed a driving force for economic growth in China, and that the contributions of specific sectors can be a useful reference for developing countries to determine prioritisation of investment in different logistics sectors across regions.     

Charting a New Paradigm of Container Hub Port Development Policy: The Asian Doctrine

This paper proposes the conceptual model of the Asian (Port) Doctrine to explain the successful development of top ranking container ports in Asia during the past four decades. This paper draws a new paradigm for the role of government as a third governance approach in addition to Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines by describing how Asian countries have developed container hub ports by investing in infrastructure as social overhead capital to support export-led growth. We survey characteristics and outcomes in major Asian container port developments and one European port in terms of a port development policy. The findings are presented in a comparative overview of government investment in functional elements of port, maritime infrastructure and landside connections to container ports. This paper confirms that the existing two doctrines—Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines—are not sufficient to explain the Asian success in major container port developments. The proposed framework contends that a newly proposed Asian Doctrine can accomplish this with the help of cross-subsidization, strategic and administered port pricing mechanism.     

Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Productivity and Economic Growth: Recent Advances and Research Challenges

ABSTRACT

The paper provides an update of the survey focusing on estimating the contribution of transport infrastructure to productivity and economic growth. The central questions addressed are possible reasons behind the conflicting results reported in the literature on the elasticity of economic output with respect to transport infrastructure investment. After providing a systematic review of recent empirical studies on the effects of transport infrastructure on productivity and economic growth, the paper notes that controversial results can be attributed to ten causes (grouped into three categories for distinguishing): (1) related to different contexts: research period, geographical scales, and country's capability in enabling economic development; (2) related to different phenomena that are being measured: different economic sectors, different types of transport infrastructure, and different quality levels of transport infrastructure; and (3) related to distinct ways of measuring a similar phenomenon: measures used to describe the dependent variable and explanatory variable, functional specification, and estimation method of the econometric model. Strong network externalities of transport infrastructure may result in nonlinearity of the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth. Moreover, the absence of spatial concerns in infrastructure's impacts is another important source of inconclusive results. Finally, building on recent literature, the paper has discussed policy implications and identified several research avenues for further research.     

The influence of the road network on private productivity measures using Data Envelopment Analysis: A case study from Spain

We evaluate the economic effects of investment in the road network on private regional activity. We employ provincial Spanish panel data from 1980 to 2007 to perform non-parametric frontier techniques based on Data Envelopment Analysis and to obtain the Malmquist productivity indexes, thus enabling us to examine the evaluation of the productivity growth via technological changes or efficiency gains. Additionally, we analyze the role of transport infrastructure on the evolution of Total Factor Productivity and its components through econometric techniques. Our results show important spillover effects. Moreover, our findings have significant implications for policy makers if we take into account the fact that the use of the road network in economic activity or in commercial relations greatly influences productivity growth.     

On the Depreciation of Automobiles: An International Comparison

Since older automobiles are less efficient and technologically obsolete, over-aged capital stocks are associated with higher environmental burden. Given the rapid growth of over-aged car stocks in many poor countries, the knowledge of depreciation data, depreciation patterns, and their determinants in developing countries becomes increasingly important for effective environmental policies. This paper refers to used automobile prices and generates depreciation data for a sample of 54 car models from 30 countries. We found the following results:(1) Overall, geometric depreciation appears to be a good approximation to real depreciation rates. (2) Depreciation rates are significantly lower in developing countries than in industrialized countries. (3) When using corrected prices the depreciation rates increase substantially. The average depreciation in OECD countries is 31%, whereas in non-OECD countries it is about 15%. Besides prices for new cars, the economic life of automobiles is particularly dependent on real income. In the long-run, an income increase by $1000 is likely to increase the annual depreciation rate by 2.7% in OECD countries and 3.6% in non-OECD countries.     

Urban transportation and equity: A case study of Beijing and Karachi

Development of mega cities of Pakistan and China has greatly been affected by the growth in urbanization and motorization. The uncontrolled rise in urbanization, motorization, exclusionary planning and disproportionate investment in transportation infrastructure has created a socio-economic imbalance, thereby challenging the issue of equity. This paper focuses on a comparative social equity assessment of urban development, characteristics of supply and demand of transportation and infrastructure systems and the impact of existing strategies over equity in the development of urban and transportation system of Beijing and Karachi. The paper concludes by suggesting some strategies for the development of sustainable and equitable urban transportation systems.     

Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China

This article develops a multi-dimensions measurement of transport infrastructure and examines the linkage between transport infrastructure and regional economic growth. A panel data model is estimated using data from a sample of 31 Chinese provinces from 1998 to 2007. The results provide strong evidence that transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth. Both land transport and water transport infrastructure have strong and significant impacts, while the contribution of airway transport infrastructure is weak. Furthermore, land transport infrastructure contributes more to economic growth in locations with poor land transport infrastructure, while the investment in water transport infrastructure contribute positively to economic growth only after the investment scale exceeds a threshold level. These results are robust to a variety of alternative methods, the exclusion of possible outliers, and consideration of endogeneity. A retrospective analysis shows that uneven distribution of transport infrastructure is an important reason behind economic disparities across Chinese regions.     

Accessibility and transport infrastructure improvement assessment: The role of borders and multilateral resistance

The market potential indicator is a commonly used tool in transport planning for evaluating the potential economic effects derived from improvements in transport infrastructures. The general assumption is that exports from a given region will rise with increased accessibility, thus benefiting economic activities. However, the specification of the market potential model is typically very simple and ignores both the impact of competing rivals and the role of international borders, which leads to unrealistic results. Spatial interaction models on bilateral trade have already proved that international trade is affected by multilateral resistance, borders, adjacency, language or currency. Nevertheless, apart from some recent analyses that simply calibrate the distance decay parameter from trade datasets, these variables have hardly been integrated into research on market potential. This paper sets out to demonstrate that more realistic results are obtained by calibrating the distance-decay parameter and introducing the impact of competing rivals and border effects into the market potential formulation. The proposed model is then applied to the assessment of the accessibility impacts of new road transport infrastructure in the European Union between 2001 and 2012, which shows that the greatest improvements in accessibility were experienced by peripheral countries with high road infrastructure investment.     

Forecasting Freight Flows

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.     

The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis

This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past decade has been a positive stimulus to the economy, while the effect on CO₂ emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic impacts of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts were found from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and offset by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.     

Energy use in passenger transport in OECD countries: Changes since 1970

This paper analyzes some of the changes that took place in the structure of energy use for passenger travel in industrialized countries. Data is presented on energy use and travel activity for the four major modes of travel — automobile, bus, rail and air — for eight OECD countries: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. We use the Laspeyres and Divisia indices to analyze the causes of the change in energy use between 1970 and 1987. The total change in energy use for travel is explained by changes in domestic passenger transport volumes, the mix of modes of travel, and the energy intensities of each mode. We have found two important effects that have a fundamental impact on energy use for travel since 1970. First, shifts among modes of transport towards more energy-intensive ones and large increases in volumes of travel (measured in passenger-kilometers) increased energy use for travel in many OECD countries, often more rapidly than the overall growth in GDP. Second, energy intensities, measured in mJ/passenger-kilometer, of passenger transport fell only in a few countries between 1970 and 1987. Even though individual automobiles have become more energy-efficient, greater size, power, and weight, worsening traffic conditions in Japan and Europe, and fewer people in cars restrained or even offset efficiency improvements. Particularly notable are the increases in intensities in Japan and Germany. The most important exception to this trend was the United States, but the intensities of land-based travel remain higher there than in most other countries. These findings lead to a pessimistic outlook for future energy use for travel. After all, if little or no energy was saved during the decades of high fuel prices, what can be expected in the 1990s?     

Quality of institutions and private participation in transport infrastructure investment: Evidence from developing countries

In recent decades, owing to a series of public debt crises and constraints on government expenditure, infrastructure investment has dropped significantly in both developed and developing countries. To counterbalance this trend, Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) schemes have been increasingly adopted. In this paper, we explore the determinants of the degree of private participation in transport infrastructure projects in a large sample of developing countries. By using a large sample of transport projects included in the World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Projects database, we document that greater participation by private parties in PPP contracts is associated with better institutions in terms of lower corruption, civil freedom, and a better regulatory framework.     

Modeling charging infrastructure impact on the electric vehicle market in China

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is deemed as a critical technological revolution, and the governments are imposing various vehicle policies to promote its development. Meanwhile, the market success of PEVs depends on many aspects. This study integrates one’s use of charging infrastructure at home, public place and workplace into the market dynamics analysis tool, New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, to systematically assess the charging infrastructure (home parking ratio, public charging opportunity, and charging costs) impact on PEV ownership costs and analyze how the PEV market shares may be affected by the attributes of the charging infrastructure. Compared to the charging infrastructure, the impact of battery costs is incontrovertibly decisive on PEV market shares, the charging infrastructure is still non-negligible in the PEV market dynamics. The simulation results find that the public charging infrastructure has more effectiveness on promoting the PEV sales in the PEV emerging market than it does in the PEV mature market. However, the improvement of charging infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a larger PEV market if the charging infrastructure incentives do not coordinate well with other PEV policies. Besides, the increase of public charging opportunities has limited motivations on the growth of public PEV fleets, which are highly correlated to the number of public fast charging stations or outlets. It also finds that more home parking spaces can stimulate more sales of personal plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of personal battery electric vehicles.     

A spatial autoregressive panel model to analyze road network spillovers on production

The production function approach is used to introduce the effect of public infrastructure on economic growth focusing on its spillover effects. We improve the existing literature both from a conceptual and methodological perspective. As regressors we incorporate variables related to the new concepts of internal and imported transport infrastructure capital stocks, which are actually used in commercial flows, calculated by network analysis performed in GIS. The internally used capital stock represents own infrastructure that benefits accessing markets within the region itself, while the imported capital stock captures the spillover effect associated to the use of the infrastructure situated in neighboring regions. From a methodological perspective, we introduce spatial interdependence into these models, applying the most recent spatial econometric techniques based on instrumental variables estimation in spatial autoregressive panel models in comparison with Maximum Likelihood estimation methods. We illustrate the methodology with Spanish provincial panel data for the period 1980–2007. Results support the hypothesis that the imported capital has a positive spillover effect on production.     

Valuation of environmental externalities: from theory to decision‐making

Valuation of externalities is a condition for correct investment and pricing decisions in transport. This paper provides a brief survey of the main studies achieved in OECD countries in order to get these valuations. Numerical values for the average social cost of transport are presented. The procedures according to which environment is taken into account in France and Italy are analyzed, and the importance of valuation in these procedures is assessed. Finally, prospects for further research and new developments are expressed.     

Charging infrastructure planning for promoting battery electric vehicles: An activity-based approach using multiday travel data

This paper studies electric vehicle charger location problems and analyzes the impact of public charging infrastructure deployment on increasing electric miles traveled, thus promoting battery electric vehicle (BEV) market penetration. An activity-based assessment method is proposed to evaluate BEV feasibility for the heterogeneous traveling population in the real world driving context. Genetic algorithm is applied to find (sub)optimal locations for siting public charging stations. A case study using the GPS-based travel survey data collected in the greater Seattle metropolitan area shows that electric miles and trips could be significantly increased by installing public chargers at popular destinations, with a reasonable infrastructure investment.     

Development and Impact of the Modern High‐speed Train: A Review

Abstract

The inauguration of the Shinkansen high‐speed train service between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, at 210 kph maximum operating speed some 40 years ago marked the comeback of the train as an important passenger mode of transport. Since then high‐speed train (HST) services have been introduced in many countries and are planned in many more, and the train has once more become the dominant mode of transport on many routes. This review summarizes the different elements of HST operation with the aim of characterizing HST operation and putting in context its impact in terms of what it is best designed for and what it can deliver. The review concludes that the HST is best designed to substitute conventional railway services on routes where much higher capacity is required and to reduce travel time, further improving the railway service, also against other modes, therefore leading to mode substitution. However, the high investment in HST infrastructure could not be justified based on its economic development benefits since these are not certain. Finally, the following definition for HST services is suggested: high capacity and frequency railway services achieving an average speed of over 200 kph.     

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

Lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers’ lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e−) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California’s public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.