对山区河流船舶搜救的思考

山区河流的航行条件相对恶劣,如发生船舶失事事故,难以开展有效的搜救及协调工作。文章针对山区河流特点和船舶失事特点,分析了山区河流流域船舶航行的安全隐患,并从多方面探讨了加强山区河流船舶搜救工作的措施。     

Accident cost saving and highway attributes

Two semi-logarithmic regression models are developed to estimate accident rates and accident costs, respectively, for rural non-interstate highways in the state of Iowa. Data on 21,224 accidents occurring between 1989 and 1991 on 17,767 road segments are used in the analysis. Seven road attributes of these road segments are included as predictor variables. Applying the resulting regression models to a rather typical highway upgrade situation, the present value of the accident cost saving is computed. The sensitivity of the estimated cost saving to values for fatal, personal injury, and property damage only accidents is tested.Because factors other than road characteristics greatly influence accident costs, the models developed in this research explain a limited amount of the variance in these costs among road segments. Results of the analysis indicate that the most important attribute associated with accident costs is average daily traffic per lane, followed by conditions requiring passing restrictions and the sharpness of curves. Varying the values for the three categories of accidents shows that results are far more sensitive to the value of personal injuries than fatalities. The feasibility of using predictive models of accident costs in benefit-cost analyses of highway investments is demonstrated.     

The relationship among highway geometrics,traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies

This research provides a demonstration of a statistical model of accident frequency that can eventually be used as part of a proactive program to allocate safety-related highway improvement funds. Negative binomial regressions of annual accident frequency on sections of principal arterials in Washington State were estimated using data from two years (1992 and 1993). In all, 31306 observations were used in model estimation (annual accident frequencies on specific sections of highway). Our estimation results isolated the effects of various highway geometric and traffic characteristics on annual accident frequency. Subsequent elasticity computations identified the relative importance of the variables included in our specifications. The findings show that the negative binomial regression used in this paper is a powerful predictive tool and one that should be increasingly applied in future accident frequency studies.     

Competing risks analysis on traffic accident duration time

Different clearance methods in traffic accident management lead to varied duration distributions. Apart from investigating the influence of various factors associated with accidents on the duration of such accidents using different clearance methods, this study also examines the cumulative incidence probability. We used traffic accident data obtained for 12 months from the Fourth Ring Expressway main line in Beijing to develop a subdistribution hazard regression model, which can assess the risk factors of two clearance methods. The regression results show that the different factors have statistically significant effects on the duration of two accident groups with different clearance methods; furthermore, opposite effects occur even for some factors that have a strong effect on both accident groups. For example, an accident involving a taxi extends the duration time with clearance method 1; in comparison, the accident is shorter with clearance method 2. The predicted cumulative incidence curves of the two types of clearance methods are shown as examples, with stratification based on the influence factors (taxi involved, season). Finally, the Gray test of the cumulative incidence functions and the log‐rank test of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of the survival functions are compared, in order to demonstrate the importance of using proper methods for analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of airport–airline vertical relationships with risk sharing contracts under asymmetric information structures

We analyze the double moral hazard problem at the joint venture type airport–airline vertical relationship, where two parties both contribute efforts to the joint venture but neither of them can see the other’s efforts. With the continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming model, we show that by the de-centralized utility maximizations of two parties under very strict conditions, i.e., optimal efforts’ cost being negligible and their risk averse parameters both asymptotically approaching to zero, the vertical contract could be agreed as the optimal sharing rule, which is the linear function of the final state with the slope being the product of their productivity difference and uncertainty (diffusion rate) level index.If both parties’ productivities are same, or the diffusion rate of the underlying process is unity, optimal linear sharing rule do not depend on the final state. If their conditions not dependent on final state are symmetric as well, then risk sharing disappears completely. In numerical examples, we illustrate the complex impact of uncertainty increase and end-of-period load factor improvement on the optimal sharing rule, and the relatively simple impact on total utility levels.     

A dynamic analysis of household car ownership

This paper examines the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995–2001. This was a period of rapid economic and social change in Ireland, with the proportion of households with one or more cars growing from 74.6% to 80.8%. Understanding the determinants of household car ownership, a key determinant of household travel behaviour more generally, is particularly important in the context of current policy developments which seek to encourage more sustainable means of travel. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to estimate dynamic models of household car ownership, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. We find income and previous car ownership to be the strongest determinants of differences in household car ownership, with the effect of permanent income having a stronger and more significant effect on the probability of household car ownership than current income. In addition, income elasticities differ by previous car ownership status, with income elasticities higher for those households with no car in the initial period. Other important influences include household composition (in particular, the presence of young children) and lifecycle effects, which create challenges for policymakers in seeking to change travel behaviour.     

散装化学品船舶事故应急处置方案

文章基于散装化学品船舶事故的严重性,结合化学品的特性,指出要对散装化学品进行正确的评价,并针对散装化学品火灾爆炸事故与泄漏事故的特点,提出了相应的应急处置方案。     

The use of dynamic programming in optimally allocating funds for highway safety improvements

An integrated system approach to traffic accident countermeasure selection is presented. This approach draws primarily upon the resources of a computerized accident records system for identifying high accident locations. Once high accident locations are identified by type, local investigations of these locations are conducted producing standardized cost and benefit data. These data are processed through a dynamic programming algorithm to produce optimal policies for implementation. Since this system has been in operation in two states in the United States for about five years, it should be of special interest to practitioners.     

The effect of complex models of externalities on estimated optimal tolls

Transport externalities such as costs of emissions and accidents are increasingly being used within appraisal and optimisation frameworks alongside the more traditional congestion analysis to set optimal transport policies. Models of externalities and costs of externalities may be implemented by a simple constant cost per vehicle-km approach or by more complex flow and speed dependent approaches. This paper investigates the impact of using both simple and more complex models of CO₂ emissions and cost of accidents on the optimal toll for car use and upon resulting welfare levels. The approach adopted is to use a single link model with a technical approach to the representation of the speed-flow relationship as this reflects common modelling practice. It is shown that using a more complex model of CO₂ emitted increases the optimal toll significantly compared to using a fixed cost approach while reducing CO₂ emitted only marginally. A number of accident models are used and the impact on tolls is shown to depend upon the assumptions made. Where speed effects are included in the accident model, accident costs can increase compared to the no toll equilibrium and so tolls should in this case be reduced compared to the congestion optimal toll. Finally it is shown that the effect of adding variable CO₂ emission models along with a fixed cost per vehicle-km for accidents can increase the optimal toll by 44% while increasing the true welfare gained by only 8%. The results clearly demonstrate that model assumptions for externalities can have a significant impact on the resulting policies and in the case of accidents the policies can be reversed.

Exploratory analysis of motorcycle holding time heterogeneity using a split-population duration model

This study integrated the samples taken in 2000 for motorcycle usage and their corresponding records registered in the Taiwan’s Vehicle Registration System to observe the survival process of motorcycle ownership. The specific heterogeneity of censored observations that failed to demonstrate actual ownership status in the registration system was corrected by employing a split-population duration model with a Weibull hazard function. The results indicated that around 11% of all observations would never experience an eventual registration termination and that the hazard rates of terminating motorcycle ownership grew at a slightly increasing rate as the holding time increased. Ways of enhancing the accuracy of the motorcycle registration system and accelerating the elimination mechanisms for old motorcycles should be carefully examined.     

Heterogeneous hazard model of PEV users charging intervals: Analysis of four year charging transactions data

Public charging infrastructure represents a key success factor in the promotion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV). Given that a large initial investment is required for the widespread adoption of PEV, many studies have addressed the location choice problem for charging infrastructure using a priori simple assumptions. Ideally, however, identifying optimal locations of charging stations necessitates an understanding of charging behavior. Limited market penetration of PEV makes it difficult to grasp any regularities in charging behavior. Using a Dutch data set about four-years of charging transactions, this study presents a detailed analysis of inter-charging times. Recognizing that PEV users may exhibit different charging behavior, this study estimates a latent class hazard duration model, which accommodates duration dependence, unobserved heterogeneity and the effects of time-varying covariates. PEV users are endogenously classified into regular and random users by treating charging regularity as a latent variable. The paper provides valuable insights into the dynamics of charging behavior at public charging stations, and which strategies can be successfully used to improve the performance of public charging infrastructure.     

A novel variable selection method based on frequent pattern tree for real-time traffic accident risk prediction

With the availability of large volumes of real-time traffic flow data along with traffic accident information, there is a renewed interest in the development of models for the real-time prediction of traffic accident risk. One challenge, however, is that the available data are usually complex, noisy, and even misleading. This raises the question of how to select the most important explanatory variables to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy for real-time traffic accident risk prediction. To address this, the present paper proposes a novel Frequent Pattern tree (FP tree) based variable selection method. The method works by first identifying all the frequent patterns in the traffic accident dataset. Next, for each frequent pattern, we introduce a new metric, herein referred to as the Relative Object Purity Ratio (ROPR). The ROPR is then used to calculate the importance score of each explanatory variable which in turn can be used for ranking and selecting the variables that contribute most to explaining the accident patterns. To demonstrate the advantages of the proposed variable selection method, the study develops two traffic accident risk prediction models, based on accident data collected on interstate highway I-64 in Virginia, namely a k-nearest neighbor model and a Bayesian network. Prior to model development, two variable selection methods are utilized: (1) the FP tree based method proposed in this paper; and (2) the random forest method, a widely used variable selection method, which is used as the base case for comparison. The results show that the FP tree based accident risk prediction models perform better than the random forest based models, regardless of the type of prediction models (i.e. k-nearest neighbor or Bayesian network), the settings of their parameters, and the types of datasets used for model training and testing. The best model found is a FP tree based Bayesian network model that can predict 61.11% of accidents while having a false alarm rate of 38.16%. These results compare very favorably with other accident prediction models reported in the literature.     

Assuring finite moments for willingness to pay in random coefficient models

Random coefficient models such as mixed logit are increasingly being used to allow for random heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) measures. In the most commonly used specifications, the distribution of WTP for an attribute is derived from the distribution of the ratio of individual coefficients. Since the cost coefficient enters the denominator, its distribution plays a major role in the distribution of WTP. Depending on the choice of distribution for the cost coefficient, and its implied range, the distribution of WTP may or may not have finite moments. In this paper, we identify a criterion to determine whether, with a given distribution for the cost coefficient, the distribution of WTP has finite moments. Using this criterion, we show that some popular distributions used for the cost coefficient in random coefficient models, including normal, truncated normal, uniform and triangular, imply infinite moments for the distribution of WTP, even if truncated or bounded at zero. We also point out that relying on simulation approaches to obtain moments of WTP from the estimated distribution of the cost and attribute coefficients can mask the issue by giving finite moments when the true ones are infinite.     

高速公路建设期重大危险源辨识探讨

文章基于危险源及重大危险源的一般定义,结合湖北杭瑞高速公路建设的实际情况,提出了高速公路建设期重大危险源的定义,并通过建立概率风险评价分析模型,采用事故树分析法和德尔菲法确定了事故发生的概率值,得出了判别重大危险源的风险度临界值,以对类似高速公路建设期重大危险源的辨识提供指导。     

Road pricing for congestion and accident externalities for mixed traffic of motorcycles and automobiles

Motorcycles play an important role in sharing the trip demand with automobiles for commuting, especially in many cities in Asia. However, the accident cost of a trip by motorcycle is higher than that of an automobile. This study analyzes the road pricing for the congestion and accident externalities of mixed traffic of automobiles and motorcycles. A model for equilibrium trips with no taxation and that for optimal trips with taxation are explored. The model is then applied to the Tucheng City–Banciao City–Taipei central business district corridor in Taipei metropolitan area. The findings in this case study show that the tax for accident externality is larger than that for congestion externality.     

Vehicle Positioning for Improving Road Safety

Abstract

Vehicle positioning is a key requirement for many safety applications. Active safety systems require precise vehicle positioning in order to assess the safety threats accurately, especially for those systems which are developed for warning/intervention in safety critical situations. When warning drivers of a local hazard (e.g. an accident site), accurate vehicle location information is important for warning the right driver groups at the right time. Global positioning system and digital maps have become major tools for vehicle positioning providing not only vehicle location information but also geometry preview of the road being used. Advances in wireless communication have made it possible for a vehicle to share its location information with other vehicles and traffic operation centres which greatly increases the opportunities to apply vehicle positioning technologies for improving road safety. This paper presents a state‐of‐the‐art review of vehicle positioning requirements for safety applications and vehicle positioning technologies. The paper also examines key issues relating to current and potential future applications of vehicle positioning technologies for improving road safety.     

Mass rapid transit systems for cities in the developing world

Abstract

In 2004, one of the biggest ferry operators in Norway was found guilty of having intentionally attempted to defraud the state of about 113 million Norwegian kroner in subsidies by underreporting revenues and overstating costs during the period 1992–2002. The company and five of the top managers were convicted and the case was regarded as one of the most serious subsidy offences ever committed in Norway. The aim of this article is to show that standardized revenue and cost norm models from the state can deter operators from committing such offences and when relevant detecting the fraud attempts at an early stage. Our model suggests that the operator in question overstated costs by about 19% and that the actual subsidy fraud attempt was about three times higher than concluded by the Court.     

On the identification of the effect of prohibiting hand-held cell phone use while driving: Comment

In a paper recently published in this journal (Nikolaev, A.G., Robbins, M.J., Jacobson, S.H., 2010. Evaluating the impact of legislation prohibiting hand-held cell phone use while driving. Transportation Research Part A 44, 182–193.), Nikolaev et al. (2010) provide evidences on the effect of hand-held cell phone bans on driving safety. More specifically, they analyze the impact of a state-wide ban on hand-held cell phone use while driving on the number of fatal automobile and personal injury accidents per 100,000 licensed drivers per year and conclude that the ban had a significant negative impact on both the mean fatal accident rate and the mean personal injury accident rate. In this paper I argue that they lack of a good identification strategy that enables them to correctly identify the causal effect of the ban. I also provide evidence that the effect they find is a combination of the ban effect and of unobservable variables not accounted for in their analysis. Finally, I provide a way where one can control for unobservables when estimating the causal effect of the ban and find that indeed that ban appears to have a negative effect on fatal automobile accidents.     

A note on the distortionary effects of revenue-neutral tolls in a bottleneck congestion game

This note demonstrates how the redistribution of revenue from a Pigouvian policy can distort incentives and handicap the social objectives of the policy by creating a moral hazard problem. Based on the Levinson (2005) game theory model, I develop a three-player bottleneck congestion game that emulates a repeated prisoner’s dilemma and derive efficient tolls. This conceptual game demonstrates the distortionary effects from a revenue-neutral toll policy with lump-sum revenue redistribution and the equity-efficiency tradeoff.     

The economics of road safety

In this paper we present a theoretical framework for the analysis of road safety in different contexts characterized by the following factors: the presence or the absence of externalities, moral hazard, taxes (subsidies), government regulation, liability insurance and multi-period insurance contracts. The main results are the following: (i) A Pareto optimal solution for insurance coverage and road safety is characterized by full insurance and a level of prevention which takes into account externalities between drivers. (ii) Without asymmetrical information, such a Pareto optimal solution can be obtained with or without a fault system for negligence if an adequate rating system is set up in order to induce individuals to take into account externalities. Taxes and subsidies can also be efficient. Government regulation of road safety is another way to reduce inefficies due to externalities. However, these interventions will not generally lead to a socially optimal level of road safety under asymmetrical information. (iii) Under asymmetrical information, two mechanisms are examined in some detail: fault for negligence and multi-period insurance contracts. It is shown that one-period liability insurance contracts (assuming that the legal system can observe the individual's level of road safety activities when accidents occur) or multi-period no-fault insurance contracts (assuming an infinite horizon with no discounting) based in part on the individual's past driving record can give individually rational self-protection activity levels which are socially efficient in presence of both moral hazard and externalities. Under less stringent assumptions, these contracts can give second-best solutions.