A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand

In this paper we analyze demand for cycling using a discrete choice model with latent variables and a discrete heterogeneity distribution for the taste parameters. More specifically, we use a hybrid choice model where latent variables not only enter into utility but also inform assignment to latent classes. Using a discrete choice experiment we analyze the effects of weather (temperature, rain, and snow), cycling time, slope, cycling facilities (bike lanes), and traffic on cycling decisions by members of Cornell University (in an area with cold and snowy winters and hilly topography). We show that cyclists can be separated into two segments based on a latent factor that summarizes cycling skills and experience. Specifically, cyclists with more skills and experience are less affected by adverse weather conditions. By deriving the median of the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution for the two classes, we show that rain deters cyclists with lower skills from bicycling 2.5 times more strongly than those with better cycling skills. The median effects also show that snow is almost 4 times more deterrent to the class of less experienced cyclists. We also model the effect of external restrictions (accidents, crime, mechanical problems) and physical condition as latent factors affecting cycling choices.     

Universities and the cycling culture

Environmental analysis consistently shows transport as being amongst the top three contributors to a university’s ecological footprint. This paper reports on a study undertaken at the Mawson Lakes Campus of the University of South Australia into cycling as a sustainable transport option. First, the paper analyzes the campus as a text: an artifact which addresses a particular audience and is actively read and interpreted by those who travel through it. In reading the campus, we go beyond examining levels of cycling infrastructure provision to consider the way infrastructure provision constitutes and positions different travelers as (ab)normal. Second, the paper looks at different groups of cyclists on campus, why some commuted to university and others did not and the experiences of each of these groups. It is found that cyclists are largely written out of the Mawson Lakes text which challenges their legitimacy as travelers and as users of campus space. The research also found substantial differences between groups of commuter and non-commuter cyclists and this division fell along staff and student lines. We conclude by suggesting ways that this and other universities might legitimize cyclists and facilitate cycling as a mode of travel.     

The relation between bicycle commuting and non-work cycling: results from a mobility panel

This study aims to establish whether or not bicycle commuting and cycling for other purposes (e.g. shopping, visiting friends) are related over time. Using previously gathered panel data (the Dutch mobility panel) these relationships are revealed by (1) a series of conditional change models and (2) a latent transition model. The conditional change models indicate that, with a lag of 1 year and controlling for a range of background characteristics, bicycle commuting and non-work cycling (in number of weekly trips) have a positive reciprocal influence on each other. The models show that work-related factors, such as the distance to work or whether a person receives a travel allowance, affect not only bicycle commuting but also non-work cycling. The latent transition model indicates that people can be clustered into four groups: non-cyclists, non-work cyclists, all-around cyclists and commuter cyclists. This model shows that people with a consistent propensity to not cycle at all (non-cyclists) or to cycle for both work and non-work purposes (all-around cyclists) are most stable in their travel behavior. Non-work cyclists and commuter cyclists are less stable in travel behavior. The model also shows that all-around cyclists are not (significantly) affected by a change in the distance to work. The article concludes with several directions for future research.     

Motivators and deterrents of bicycling: comparing influences on decisions to ride

In a survey of 1,402 current and potential cyclists in Metro Vancouver, 73 motivators and deterrents of cycling were evaluated. The top motivators, consistent among regular, frequent, occasional and potential cyclists, were: routes away from traffic noise and pollution; routes with beautiful scenery; and paths separated from traffic. In factor analysis, the 73 survey items were grouped into 15 factors. The following factors had the most influence on likelihood of cycling: safety; ease of cycling; weather conditions; route conditions; and interactions with motor vehicles. These results indicate the importance of the location and design of bicycle routes to promote cycling.     

Overcoming barriers to cycling: understanding frequency of cycling in a University setting and the factors preventing commuters from cycling on a regular basis

Much local and regional transport policy is attempting to increase cycling as an everyday mode of travel through infrastructure changes, education initiatives, and safety campaigns. While considerable research has examined the influence of the built form on cycling, less research has examined the barriers that prevent people who wish to cycle more (as part of their routine) from doing so. This study examines several factors influencing the frequency by which people do (and do not) cycle in a campus setting in a large metropolitan area. Mixed methods reveal differences between barriers to cycling as well as the relative strength of these barriers across categories of age, sex, and current mode used. A multinomial logit model, which controls for residential self-selection effects, predicts whether and how often a respondent cycles based on socio-demographic and trip characteristics. The presence of cycle paths is found to be strongly associated with a higher frequency of cycling commutes. Additionally, an analysis of stated barriers reveals effort and a lack of safety as the most important barriers to potential cyclists. Finally, a qualitative analysis of respondents’ open-ended responses confirms the influence of bicycle paths, but reveals other factors such as the importance of improved interactions among various street users. Findings from this research can be of benefit to transportation engineers and planners who are aiming to increase the use of cycling among various groups of commuters.     

Characterising group-cycling journeys using interactive graphics

The group-cycling behaviours of over 16,000 members of the London Cycle Hire Scheme (LCHS), a large public bikeshare system, are identified and analysed. Group journeys are defined as trips made by two or more cyclists together in space and time. Detailed insights into group-cycling behaviour are generated using specifically designed visualization software. We find that in many respects group-cycle journeys fit an expected pattern of discretionary activity: group journeys are more likely at weekends, late evenings and lunchtimes; they generally take place within more pleasant parts of the city; and between individuals apparently known to each other. A separate set of group activity is found, however, that coincides with commuting peaks and that appears to be imposed onto LCHS users by the scheme’s design. Studying the characteristics of individuals making group journeys, we identify a group of less experienced LCHS cyclists that appear to make more spatially extensive journeys than they would do normally while cycling with others; and that female cyclists are more likely to make late evening journeys when cycling in groups. For 20% of group cyclists, the first journey ever made through the LCHS was a group journey; this is particularly surprising since just 9% of all group cyclists’ journeys are group journeys. Moreover, we find that women are very significantly (p < 0.001) overrepresented amongst these ‘first time group cyclists’. Studying the bikeshare cyclists, or bike share ‘friends’, that individuals make ‘first time group journeys’ with, we find a significantly high incidence (p < 0.001) of group journeys being made with friends of the opposite gender, and for a very large proportion (55%) of members these first ever journeys are made with a friend that shares the same postcode. A substantial insight, then, is that group cycling appears to be a means through which early LCHS usage is initiated.     

Cycling near misses: Their frequency,impact, and prevention

This paper explores cyclists’ experiences of non-injury incidents, arguing that these are important for cycling experience and uptake as well as for injury prevention. It discusses different types of non-injury incident collected in a recent survey of UK cyclists. These are everyday occurrences that in some cases have a substantially negative impact on cycling experiences. This article explores the impact of different incident types on people cycling both immediately and in the future. It analyses what near misses tell us about cyclists’ experience of problems related to road user behaviour and culture, and infrastructural conditions for cycling. The paper explores what cyclists experiencing near misses think might have prevented them. Based on this and on a comparison with common types of injury incidents, summary recommendations are made for policy and future research.     

Re-cycling a city – Examining the growth of cycling in Dublin

In the past few decades much research has been conducted on the increasing numbers of commuters taking up cycling to work. This modal shift has been encouraged by pro-cycling policies to increase the attractiveness of cycling and the construction of new cycling infrastructure. In Dublin, several policies have been applied such as a bike rental scheme, bicycle-purchasing schemes, reducing speed limits and the construction of segregated cycle lanes to promote cycling. This paper seeks to examine what, if any, impact these policies have had on cycling rates in Dublin. This paper compares census data from 2006 and 2011 to determine how cycling rates have changed and if the demographics of cyclists have changed in the city. The results presented in the paper show that cycling rates have increased in Dublin and that a greater percentage of females, those in higher age and socio-economic groups are cycling to work on a regular basis. The analysis presented in this paper identifies groups of individuals that have recently shifted to cycling to work, by identifying who these people are, policymakers can tailor strategies to target these groups to encourage others in these groups to take up cycling.     

Bicycling renaissance in North America?: Recent trends and alternative policies to promote bicycling

Over the past two decades, the number of bicycle trips in the United States has doubled. Since 48% of trips by all modes in American cities are shorter than three miles, the potential for further growth in bicycling seems enormous. So far, efforts to promote bicycling have focused on building bike paths and bike lanes. Although necessary, separate cycling facilities must be complemented by a comprehensive program to make all roads bikeable, through both physical adaptations and enforcement of cyclists' right to use the road. It seems likely that cycling will continue to grow in North America, but that its mode share will remain far lower than levels in northern Europe. Bicycling in Canada and especially the United States is impeded by the lack of a tradition of cycling for utilitarian purposes and by the marginal legal, cultural and infrastructure status of cyclists in both countries' automobile-based transport systems. As long as car use remains cheap and transportation policy remains dominated by motoring, bicycles will continue to be used primarily for recreation and not for daily urban travel in North America.     

How does air pollution influence cycling behaviour? Evidence from Beijing

It is widely believed air pollution is an obstacle to cycling as it has negative effects on cyclists’ health outcomes and deteriorates their cycling experiences. However, the empirical studies investigating the impact of air pollution on cycling behaviour remains scarce. The aim of this paper is to fill the gap by looking at Beijing as a case study. The authors conducted a survey of 307 cyclists on the days with different levels of air quality in terms of concentration of PM_2.5 in 2015. The results show that in the polluted weather, those who persist in cycling are more likely to be male, over 30 years old, lower income or those who travel short distances. Specifically, female cyclists have a higher tendency to shift from cycling to public transit than the males and medium and high-income earners are more likely to shift to using a car than low income earners. The residents’ subjective perceptions of safety and comfort have major effects on their cycling behaviour. A higher perception of comfort and safety is related to a higher possibility of continuing cycling when air quality became polluted. Cycling for commuting trips is less likely to be replaced by other modes than cycling for non-commuting trips, such as shopping. Results of this study reveal that improving air quality in a metropolitan area such as Beijing has co-benefits of cycling renaissance. The huge investments into cycling infrastructure should be integrated with policies designed to create an attractive environment for cycling.     

The effect of non-recreational transport cycling on use of other transport modes: A cross-sectional on-line survey

Accurate modelling of the health and environmental benefits of non-recreational transport cycling requires information about its effects on the use of other transport modes. Relevant research has not focussed on cycling for transport in a general context (as opposed to bikeshare), nor allowed for multi-modal trips. The influence of trip- and personal-characteristics on whether cycling replaces car-driving have yet to be considered. The present study aimed to address these research gaps. An on-line cross-sectional survey was completed by 1525 Australians who cycle for transport at least once per week. For the most recent trip completed (at least partly) by bicycle participants provided trip distance, and percentage travelled by car, public transport (PT), and walking. They also provided the percentage travelled by each mode for the same trip before taking up transport cycling; and a hypothetical future trip when riding is not possible. Compared to the same trip before, fifty percent of recent trips reduced car use, and around 1/3 eliminated a 100%-car trip. Reduced car use was significantly less likely for trips under 7.5 km, commuting, females, respondents under 55, and regular cyclists. Reduced car use was less likely for respondents who started riding because it is flexible, and more likely for those who started riding to avoid parking. Car-use was reduced by an average of 6.2 km per trip, and each bicycle-km cycled replaced 0.5 car-km. Participants report that since taking up cycling, even when they cannot use their bike, they use cars less and use PT more compared to before they took up cycling. Results suggest that previous studies underestimated the extent to which transport cycling replaces car travel, and highlights trip types and population groups to target with cycling promotion strategies. Information about the per-trip and per-bicycle-km replacement of car, PT and walking may be used for more accurate estimation of the benefits of transport cycling than has hitherto been possible.     

Costs and benefits of a bicycle helmet law for Germany

This study presents a cost–benefit analysis of a law requiring cyclists to wear a helmet when riding a bicycle in Germany. The cost benefit-analysis takes into account the benefit of increased security when cyclists wear a helmet or use a transport mode that is less risky than cycling. The analysis also considers the cost of purchasing helmets, reduced fitness when cycling is replaced by a motorized transport mode, the discomfort of wearing helmets and environmental externalities. The benefits of a helmet law are estimated at about 0.7 of the costs. A bicycle helmet law for Germany is found to be a waste of resources.     

Designing a route planner to facilitate and promote cycling in Metro Vancouver,Canada

With increasing fuel costs, greater awareness of greenhouse gas emissions and increasing obesity levels, cycling is promoted as a health promoting and sustainable transport mode. We developed a cycling route planner (http://cyclevancouver.ubc.ca) for Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, to facilitate cycling amongst the general public and to facilitate new route location by transportation planners. The geographical information system-based planner incorporates variables that influence choices to travel by bicycle (e.g., distance, elevation gain, safety, route features, air pollution and links to transit) in selecting the preferred routing. Using a familiar and user-friendly Google Maps interface, the planner allows individuals to seek optimized cycling routes throughout the region based on their own preferences. In addition to the incorporation of multiple user preferences in route selection, the planner is unique amongst cycling route planners in its use of topology to minimize data storage redundancy, its reliance on node/vertex index tables to increase efficiency of the route selection process, and the use of web services and asynchronous technologies for quick data delivery. Use of this tool can help promote bicycle travel as a form of active transportation and help lower greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutant emissions by reducing car trips.     

Assessing the impact of the National Cycle Network and physical activity lifestyle on cycling behaviour in England

This paper examines the association between access to National Cycle Network (NCN) routes in England and an individual’s cycling behaviour whilst accounting for their broader physical activity lifestyle and controlling for their socio-economic circumstances. It identifies a positive association between access to these routes and the total minutes of any form of cycling, and the number of days that cycling takes place primarily for recreational purposes. The broader physical activity of individuals also has a positive association with cycling. Walking appears most likely to be complementary to non-recreational cycling, whilst participation in sport with all forms of cycling, but not with longer duration utilitarian trips. The research also indicates that access to NCN routes has the potential to increase such cycling further, with the exception of longer utilitarian trips, as does a more physically active lifestyle, particularly walking. The main policy implications of the research are to recognise that cycling is intrinsically linked to other physical activity, notably, walking, but that the NCN routes measured in this study primarily support longer duration recreational activity, which is also affected by sporting activity. This suggests that one avenue for achieving the health benefits of cycling may be through promoting NCN routes to harness a more generally active lifestyle and particularly in leisure, whilst sustainability may be further promoted through being linked more to other active travel such as walking. There is a therefore a need to exploit the potential of such NCN route provision as part of this promotion.     

Who cycles more? Determining cycling frequency through a segmentation approach in Montreal,Canada

The decision to cycle frequently in an urban setting is a complex process and is affected by a variety of factors. This study analyzed the various factors influencing cycling frequency among 1707 cyclists from Montreal, Canada using an ordinal logistic regression. A segmentation of cyclists is used in a series of ordinal logistic models to better understand the different impacts of variables on the frequency of cycling among each group of cyclists for commute and for utilitarian purposes. Our models show a variation in the impacts of each dependent variable on frequency of cycling across the various segments of cyclists. Mainly making cyclists feel safe not only on bicycle specific infrastructure but also on regular streets, emphasizing the low cost, convenience and improving the opinion on cycling in the population are effective interventions to increase bicycle usage. Also, it was shown that women were less likely to cycle to work than men, but more likely to cycle for other utilitarian trips, pointing at the presence of specific barriers to commuting for woman. Although the findings from this study are specific to Montreal, they can be of interest to transportation planners and engineers working toward increasing cycling frequency in other regions.     

A bi-objective cyclist route choice model

It is widely acknowledged that cyclists choose their route differently to drivers of private vehicles. The route choice decision of commuter drivers is often modelled with one objective, to reduce their generalised travel cost, which is a monetary value representing the combined travel time and vehicle operating cost. Commuter cyclists, on the other hand, usually have multiple incommensurable objectives when choosing their route: the travel time and the suitability of a route. By suitability we mean non-subjective factors that characterise the suitability of a route for cycling, including safety, traffic volumes, traffic speeds, presence of bicycle lanes, whether the terrain is flat or hilly, etc. While these incommensurable objectives are difficult to be combined into a single objective, it is also important to take into account that each individual cyclist may prioritise differently between travel time and suitability when they choose a route.This paper proposes a novel model to determine the route choice set of commuter cyclists by formulating a bi-objective routing problem. The two objectives considered are travel time and suitability of a route for cycling. Rather than determining a single route for a cyclist, we determine a choice set of optimal alternative routes (efficient routes) from which a cyclist may select one according to their personal preference depending on their perception of travel time versus other route choice criteria considered in the suitability index. This method is then implemented in a case study in Auckland, New Zealand.The study provides a starting point for the trip assignment of cyclists, and with further research, the bi-objective routing model developed can be applied to create a complete travel demand forecast model for cycle trips. We also suggest the application of the developed methodology as an algorithm in an interactive route finder to suggest efficient route choices at different levels of suitability to cyclists and potential cyclists.     

Engineering condition assessment of cycling infrastructure: Cyclists’ perceptions of satisfaction and comfort

The UK National Cycle Network comprises 23,660 km of cycling and walking paths of which a significant percentage is dedicated off-road infrastructure. This represents a significant civil engineering infrastructure asset that currently contributes to the provision of a sustainable transport mode option nationwide. Commuting and recreational cyclists have observed the often hazardous conditions on these paths. There are various simple measures that could be taken to improve the maintenance of such off-road paths. Reliance on walk-over surveys (direct visual inspection) and path users notifying the local authority may not be tackling maintenance in a resource efficient manner. The proposed inspection method includes the use of an instrumented bicycle to examine cycle path condition through user perception of satisfaction and quality. A questionnaire was conducted to identify the attributes of off-road cycling infrastructure people find most important in relation to their personal satisfaction. An exploratory factor analysis was undertaken on perception study data to elucidate the determination of the variables associated with perceived user satisfaction. The study has shown that people find maintenance issues to be of high importance, especially surface issues. From exploratory factor analysis of results, satisfaction has been found to load with comfort and safety. Field testing was then conducted using subjective user opinions and objective vibration data. These results were then used to assist the creation of dedicated user perception based surface condition rating-scales.     

Investigating the link between cyclist volumes and air pollution along bicycle facilities in a dense urban core

In this paper we explore the air pollution levels along types of bicycle facilities using a NO₂ land use model previously developed for Montreal. We explore potential associations between bicycle volumes through signalized intersections and pollution levels at those intersections. We further investigate this relationship through the comparison of over thirty cycling corridors as well as an evaluation of the potential exposure of cyclists to air pollution along five routes. We observe NO₂ concentrations to be positively correlated with bicycle flows at the intersection level. We also observe that corridors with either a bicycle path or cycle track generally rank higher in terms of bicycle volume and also have higher NO₂ concentrations than corridors without bicycle facilities. This indicates that intersections and bicycle facilities with a large number of cyclists are also those characterized with the highest air pollution levels.     

Non-motorised Level of Service: Addressing Challenges in Pedestrian and Bicycle Level of Service

Motorised vehicle conditions have been evaluated by many researchers. In contrast, there are very limited studies on vulnerable and non-motorised users, such as cyclists and pedestrians, specifically children, the elderly and the disabled. Thus, this paper reviews prominent studies on street evaluations to identify effective indicators for non-motorised trips. The street condition for these trips is measured by the bicycle level of service (BLOS) and the pedestrian level of service (PLOS). In previous studies, different methods have been introduced for PLOS and BLOS. However, these methods have several major shortcomings. First, pedestrians and cyclists are assumed to be users who can share street facilities with motorised vehicles and thus are considered equivalent to cars. Second, the majority of these methods are complicated and time-consuming, and it is difficult to connect them to a design process. Furthermore, these methods support only a limited number of walking and cycling facilities; therefore, they may not be valid for a wide range of pedestrians and cyclists with a diverse variety of abilities and ages. This study discusses the challenges in the BLOS and PLOS research and attempts to introduce new objectives for further studies in this field to eliminate the aforementioned shortcomings.     

Where do cyclists ride? A route choice model developed with revealed preference GPS data

To better understand bicyclists’ preferences for facility types, GPS units were used to observe the behavior of 164 cyclists in Portland, Oregon, USA for several days each. Trip purpose and several other trip-level variables recorded by the cyclists, and the resulting trips were coded to a highly detailed bicycle network. The authors used the 1449 non-exercise, utilitarian trips to estimate a bicycle route choice model. The model used a choice set generation algorithm based on multiple permutations of path attributes and was formulated to account for overlapping route alternatives. The findings suggest that cyclists are sensitive to the effects of distance, turn frequency, slope, intersection control (e.g. presence or absence of traffic signals), and traffic volumes. In addition, cyclists appear to place relatively high value on off-street bike paths, enhanced neighborhood bikeways with traffic calming features (aka “bicycle boulevards”), and bridge facilities. Bike lanes more or less exactly offset the negative effects of adjacent traffic, but were no more or less attractive than a basic low traffic volume street. Finally, route preferences differ between commute and other utilitarian trips; cyclists were more sensitive to distance and less sensitive to other infrastructure characteristics for commute trips.