Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast

This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.     

The role of public transport for feasibility and acceptability of congestion charging – The case of Stockholm

In the Stockholm Trial, congestion charges and the expansion of public transport services were closely linked together in marketing efforts, as well as in political decisions. In this paper, we analyse the role that public transport may have played in increasing acceptability and feasibility of the scheme. We study four aspects of the relationship between charging and public transport provision: (i) the initial modal share, (ii) contribution to modal shift (iii) compensation to losers (iv) revenue hypothecation. Our analyses, based on a combination of primary and secondary data, support the hypothesis that public transport contributed to the successful implementation of congestion charging in Stockholm through all those four mechanisms.     

Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg

Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.     

Factors driving public support for road congestion reduction policies: Congestion charging,free public transport and more roads in Stockholm,Helsinki and Lyon

Based on an across-the-board survey conducted among residents of Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon, we explore the opinions on three policy measures to combat road congestion: congestion charging, free public transport and building more roads. The support for the two latter policies is substantially higher than the support for congestion charging, which is only supported by a majority in Stockholm. Self-interest is important for the formation of the opinion to all three policies. However, fundamental values and general political views, indicated by four attitudinal factors, are even more important in forming opinions towards the three transport policies. Of all attitudinal factors, the one indicating environmental concern most influences the support for all policies. Equity concerns, however, increase the support for free public transport and opposition to taxation increases the support for building more roads.Our results further suggest that the opinions towards free public transport and building more roads can be mapped along the left–right political axis, where Environment and Equity are to the left and Pricing and Taxation are to the right. However, the opinion towards congestion charging cuts right through the political spectrum. The impact of the fundamental values and self-interest variables are similar for Stockholm and Helsinki, indicating that even if experience increases the overall support for charging, it does not change the relative strength of different political arguments to any major extent.     

The Gothenburg congestion charges: cost–benefit analysis and distribution effects

This paper performs an ex-post cost–benefit and distribution analysis of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013, based on observed effects and an ex-post evaluated transport model. Although Gothenburg is a small city with congestion limited to the highway junctions, the congestion charge scheme is socially beneficial, generating a net surplus of €20 million per year. From a financial perspective, the investment cost was repaid in slightly more than a year and, from a social surplus perspective, is repaid in < 4 years. Still, the sums that are redistributed in Gothenburg are substantially larger than the net benefit. In the distribution analysis we develop an alternative welfare rule, where the utility is translated to money by dividing the utility by the average marginal utility of money, thereby avoiding putting a higher weight on high-income people. The alternative welfare rule shows larger re-distribution effects, because paying charges is more painful for low-income classes due to the higher marginal utility of money. Low-income citizens pay a larger share of their income because all income classes are highly car dependent in Gothenburg and workers in the highest income class have considerably higher access to company cars for private trips. No correlation was found between voting pattern and gains, losses or net gain.

     

Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm

It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas—a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that equity impacts have not been given enough concern. In studies of distributional impacts of congestion pricing it has often been claimed that the reform is regressive rather than progressive even if there are studies claiming the opposite. We develop a method for detailed, quantitative assessment of equity effects of road pricing and apply it to a real-world example, namely a proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm. The method simultaneously takes into account differences in travel behaviour, in preferences (such as values of time) and in supply of travel possibilities (car ownership, public transport level-of-service etc.). We conclude that the two most important factors for the net impact of congestion pricing are the initial travel patterns and how revenues are used. Differences in these respects dwarf differences in other factors such as values of time. This is accentuated by the fact that the total collected charges are more than three times as large as the net benefits. With respect to different groups, we find that men, high-income groups and residents in the central parts of the city will be affected the most. If revenues are used for improving public transport, this will benefit women and low-income groups the most. If revenues are used for tax cuts, the net benefits will be about equal for men and women on the average, while it naturally will benefit high-income groups. Given that it is likely that the revenues will be used to some extent to improve the public transport system, we conclude that the proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm is progressive rather than regressive.     

The role of attitude structures,direct experience and reframing for the success of congestion pricing

Congestion pricing was introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, and permanently from 2007. Public attitudes to the charges became more negative during the period from the decision to the start of the system. Once the trial started, public attitudes became dramatically more positive over the following years, going from 2/3 against the charges to more than 2/3 in favor of the charges. Self-reported changes in behavior and attitudes considerably underestimate actual changes: about 3/4 of the decrease in car trips and more than half of the change in attitudes seem to have gone unnoticed by respondents, ex post. Self-interest and belief in the charges’ effectiveness strongly affect attitudes at any given point in time, but can only explain a minor part of the change in attitudes. I suggest that the debate and the shift in attitudes can be understood as a public and political reframing of the congestion charges over time.     

Stockholm congestion charging: an assessment with METROPOLIS and SILVESTER

This paper reviews and compares the performance of two dynamic transportation models – METROPOLIS and SILVESTER – which are used to predict the impacts of congestion charging for Stockholm. Both are mesoscopic dynamic models treating accumulation and dissipation of traffic queues, route choice, modal split and departure time choice. The models are calibrated independently for the baseline situation without charges and applied to forecast the effects of congestion charging. The results obtained from the two models are mutually compared and validated against the actual outcome of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Both models successfully predict the outcomes of the congestion charging trial at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. Results of welfare analysis, however, differ substantially due to differences in model specification.     

The development of public attitudes towards the Stockholm congestion trial

A full-scale congestion charging trial was carried out in Stockholm the first months of 2006. Almost half of respondents in a county-wide survey stated that they changed their attitudes towards congestion charges during the trial. Most of them became more positive.An analysis of media shows that the attitudinal change in media towards the trial coincides with the attitudinal change of the public. There was no dramatic change in the proportion of articles expressing a negative view. Instead, the result indicates that the increase in positive views was driven by a shift from neutral to positive articles during the trial.In order to ascertain why the public attitudes swung, we have analysed the anticipated and perceived effects of the trial. Generally, the analysis seems to indicate that improved understanding of the type and magnitude of concrete effects was not a main driving force behind the attitudinal change. Instead, it seems that the public attitude changed because personal experience gave a new understanding of the implications of the charges for the personal well-being. This would imply that trials, generally, may be a more useful tool than information in the process of implementing ‘difficult’ policy measures, such as congestion charges.     

A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems

One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is to reduce congestion and increase capacity. Public transport congestion leads to crowding discomfort, denied boardings and lower service reliability. However, transit assignment models and appraisal methodologies usually do not account for the dynamics of public transport congestion and crowding and thus potentially underestimate the related benefits.This study develops a method to capture the benefits of increased capacity by using a dynamic and stochastic transit assignment model. Using an agent-based public transport simulation model, we dynamically model the evolution of network reliability and on-board crowding. The model is embedded in a comprehensive framework for project appraisal.A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrates that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than a third of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects, especially if they are primarily intended to increase capacity rather than to reduce travel times.     

A cost–benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system

This paper presents a cost–benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, based on the observed rather than on the model-forecasted data. The most important data sources are travel time and traffic flow measurements made in the year before the charges were introduced (during April 2005) and during the first spring with the charges (during April 2006, 4 months after the charges were introduced). Using matrix calibration, effects on the non-observed link flows and travel times are extrapolated, enabling us to calculate the social value of changes in travel times and travel costs. Impacts on traffic safety and emissions are calculated using standard Swedish CBA relationships. The system is shown to yield a significant social surplus, well enough to cover both investment and operating costs, provided that it is kept for a reasonable lifetime: investment and startup costs are “recovered” in terms of social benefits in around 4 years.     

A forecast air pollution model applied to a hypothetical urban road pricing scheme: An empirical study in Madrid

Reducing the air pollution from increases in traffic congestion in large cities and their surroundings is an important problem that requires changes in travel behavior. Road pricing is an effective tool for reducing air pollution, as reflected currently urban road pricing outcomes (Singapore, London, Stockholm and Milan). A survey was conducted based on establishing a hypothetical urban road pricing system in Madrid (a random sample size n = 1298). We developed a forecast air pollution model with time series analysis to evaluate the consequences of possible air pollution decreases in Madrid. Results reveal that the hypothetical road pricing for Madrid could have highly significant effects on decreasing air pollution outside of the city and in the inner city during the peak operating time periods of maximum congestion (morning peak hours from 7:00 to 10:00 and evening peak hours from 18:00 to 20:00). Furthermore, this system could have significant positive effects on a shift toward using public transport and non-motorized modes inside the hypothetical toll zone. This reveals that the system has a high capacity to motivate a decrease in air pollution and impose more sustainable behavior for public transport users.     

Policy packages for modal shift and CO2 reduction in Lille,France

This paper proposes different policy scenarios to cut CO₂ emissions caused by the urban mobility of passengers. More precisely, we compare the effects of the ‘direct tool’ of carbon tax, to a combination of ‘indirect tools’ – not originally aimed at reducing CO₂ (i.e. congestion charging, parking charges and a reduction in public transport travel time) in terms of CO₂ impacts through a change in the modal split. In our model, modal choices depend on individual characteristics, trip features (including the effects of policy tools), and land use at origin and destination zones. Personal “CO₂ emissions budgets” resulting from the trips observed in the metropolitan area of Lille (France) in 2006 are calculated and compared to the situation related to the different policy scenarios. We find that an increase of 50% in parking charges combined with a cordon toll of €1.20 and a 10% travel time decrease in public transport services (made after recycling toll-revenues) is the winning scenario. The combined effects of all the policy scenarios are superior to their separate effects.     

Transport policy for London in 2001 The case for an integrated approach

The paper reports the results of a series of studies conducted to enable the London Planning Advisory Committee to provide advice on strategic transport policy for London. The analytical approach combined the use of an area-based, multi-modal strategic model (LAM) and professional judgment. The performance of LAM as a basis for providing rapid advice on complex issues in transport policy is assessed.The resulting policy advice advocated a coherent approach, involving new infrastructure, particularly for rail; improved management of the road and public transport networks; the use of subsidy to enhance public transport service levels; and road user charges to reduce the impact of private vehicles on congestion and the environment. Road user charges emerged as the pivotal issue in the policy; the paper discusses their role, and the questions which still need to be resolved before they can be implemented.The main message of the study is that no one element of transport policy can tackle London's problems alone; an integrated policy in which infrastructure provision, management and pricing are used to complement one another is shown to be far more effective.     

The Stockholm congestion – charging trial 2006: Overview of effects

The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome of a subsequent referendum on a proposal for making the system permanent. This paper summarises the effects of the trial and analyses to what extent targets were met. Effects on congestion reduction were larger than anticipated, which also resulted in favourable economic and environmental effects. The trial showed that a single-cordon toll could affect traffic within a large area, i.e., not just close to the zone limits.     

Framing the role of Decision Support in the case of Stockholm Congestion Charging Trial

Congestion charging was – as a trial – introduced in Stockholm from January 3rd to July 31st 2006. After the referendum in September 2006, the charging system was finally introduced as permanent from August 2007 with some adjustments to the Trial design. The idea of congestion charging is unique in a Swedish context, and the introduction of the Stockholm system has been highly controversial. Considerable efforts have therefore been undertaken to provide information that could serve as ‘Decision Support’ along the way. This has included e.g. modelling and forecasts before the Trial, a comprehensive evaluation programme during the Trial, extensive stakeholder consultations throughout, and various information and communication strategies. But what difference did this information input make, and what was its role in the process from initiating the system, to its final adoption? In this paper we pave the way for investigating the use and role of ‘Decision Support’ in the Stockholm Congestion Charging experiment. We adopt a definition of Decision Support as the systematic application of externally produced knowledge in transport planning and policy making processes. We then derive an analytical framework from the research literature on ‘knowledge utilization’ in policy making. This research has generally found that both ‘technical’, ‘communicative’, and ‘institutional’ aspects of the Decision Support matter for its influence on actual policy making processes and results. In our analysis we find a similar pattern. This high technical quality of the monitoring and evaluation programmes provided for solid verified results, while the institutional arrangements and the communication strategies helped to ensure the credibility and legitimacy of the information for the decision makers. The availability of rich contents coupled with strategies for the timely and targeted information delivery suggest that direct ‘instrumental’ use could have taken place. At a more general level the Trial represents an advanced form of ‘Decision Support’ that goes beyond the mere application of calculated results to encompass a process where the decision parameters themselves become part of the change process.     

Road pricing with complications

The rationale for congestion charges is that by internalising the marginal external congestion cost, they restore efficiency in the transport market. In the canonical model underlying this view, congestion is a static phenomenon, users are taken to be homogenous, there is no travel time risk, and a highly stylised model of congestion is used. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that inefficiencies in related markets potentially affect the case for congestion charges. The canonical model tends to understate the marginal external congestion cost because it ignores user heterogeneity and trip timing inefficiencies. With respect to the relevance of interactions between congestion and congestion charges and tax distortions and distributional concerns, recent insights point out that there is no general case for modifying charges for such interactions. Therefore the simple Pigouvian rule remains a good first approximation for the design of road charging systems.     

Air pollution dynamics and the need for temporally differentiated road pricing

In this paper we investigate the effects of the temporal variation of pollution dispersion, traffic flows and vehicular emissions on pollution concentration and illustrate the need for temporally differentiated road pricing through an application to the case of the congestion charge in Stockholm, Sweden. By accounting explicitly for the role of pollution dispersion on optimal road pricing, we allow for a more comprehensive view of the economy–ecology interactions at stake, showing that price differentiation is an optimal response to the physical environment. Most congestion charges in place incorporate price bands to mitigate congestion. Our analysis indicates that, to ensure compliance with air quality standards, such price variations should also be a response to limited pollution dispersion.     

Optimal transport strategies for European cities

A new procedure for generating optimal transport strategies has been applied in nine European cities. A public sector objective function which reflects concerns over efficiency, environmental impact, finance and sustainability is specified and a set of policy measures with acceptable ranges on each, identified. Optimal strategies based on combinations of these policy measures which generate the optimal value of the objective function, are identified, and compared between cities. Resulting policy recommendations are presented. The results demonstrate the importance of an integrated approach to transport strategy formulation. They emphasise the role of changes in public transport service levels and of fares, and of charges for car use. By contrast, new infrastructure projects are less frequently justified. In the majority of cities the revenues from car use charges are sufficient to finance other elements in the strategy. However, private sector involvement either in initial financing or in operation may be desirable. Revised objective functions to reflect private sector involvement are specified, and optimal strategies with private sector operation of public transport are also identified. The requirement to meet private sector rates of return for public transport operation typically results in lower frequencies and higher fares; charges for car use then need to be raised to satisfy public policy objectives, but system performance is reduced. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Locating charging infrastructure for electric buses in Stockholm

Charging infrastructure requirements are being largely debated in the context of urban energy planning for transport electrification. As electric vehicles are gaining momentum, the issue of locating and securing the availability, efficiency and effectiveness of charging infrastructure becomes a complex question that needs to be addressed. This paper presents the structure and application of a model developed for optimizing the distribution of charging infrastructure for electric buses in the urban context, and tests the model for the bus network of Stockholm. The major public bus transport hubs connecting to the train and subway system show the highest concentration of locations chosen by the model for charging station installation. The costs estimated are within an expected range when comparing to the annual bus public transport costs in Stockholm. The model could be adapted for various urban contexts to promptly assist in the transition to fossil-free bus transport. The total costs for the operation of a partially electrified bus system in both optimization cases considered (cost and energy) differ only marginally from the costs for a 100% biodiesel system. This indicates that lower fuel costs for electric buses can balance the high investment costs incurred in building charging infrastructure, while achieving a reduction of up to 51% in emissions and up to 34% in energy use in the bus fleet.