Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030

Electric vehicles are often said to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. However, the results of current comparisons with conventional vehicles are not always in favor of electric vehicles. We outline that this is not only due to the different assumptions in the time of charging and the country-specific electricity generation mix, but also due to the applied assessment method. We, therefore, discuss four assessment methods (average annual electricity mix, average time-dependent electricity mix, marginal electricity mix, and balancing zero emissions) and analyze the corresponding CO₂ emissions for Germany in 2030 using an optimizing energy system model (PERSEUS-NET-TS). Furthermore, we distinguish between an uncontrolled (i.e. direct) charging and an optimized controlled charging strategy. For Germany, the different assessment methods lead to substantial discrepancies in CO₂ emissions for 2030 ranging from no emissions to about 0.55 kg/kWh_el (110 g/km). These emissions partly exceed the emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles. Furthermore, depending on the underlying power plant portfolio and the controlling objective, controlled charging might help to reduce CO₂ emissions and relieve the electricity grid. We therefore recommend to support controlled charging, to develop consistent methodologies to address key factors affecting CO₂ emissions by electric vehicles, and to implement efficient policy instruments which guarantee emission free mobility with electric vehicles agreed upon by researchers and policy makers.     

Who can recharge a plug-in electric vehicle at home?

We construct consumer-informed estimates of residential access to vehicle charging to guide understanding of plug-in electric vehicle demand, use, and energy impacts. Using a web-based survey, study 1 estimates that about half of new car-buying US households park at least one vehicle within 25 ft of a Level 1 (110/120 V) electrical outlet at home. Study 2 estimates that just under one-third of new car-buying households in San Diego County have access to Level 2 (220/240 V) charging. Further, 20% of the sample are both able and willing to install Level 2 PEV recharging infrastructure at the prices examined.     

On the electrification of road transportation – A review of the environmental,economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers

Electrification is widely considered as a viable strategy for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impacts of road transportation. In pursuit of this strategy, most attention has been paid to electric cars. However, substantial, yet untapped, potentials could be realized in urban areas through the large-scale introduction of electric two-wheelers. Here, we review the environmental, economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers, demonstrating that these are generally more energy efficient and less polluting than conventionally-powered motor vehicles. Electric two-wheelers tend to decrease exposure to pollution as their environmental impacts largely result from vehicle production and electricity generation outside of urban areas. Our analysis suggests that the price of e-bikes has been decreasing at a learning rate of 8%. Despite price differentials of 5000 ± 1800 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW h⁻¹ in Europe, e-bikes are penetrating the market because they appear to offer an apparent additional use value relative to bicycles. Mid-size and large electric two-wheelers do not offer such an additional use value compared to their conventional counterparts and constitute niche products at price differentials of 700 ± 360 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹ and 160 ± 90 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹, respectively. The large-scale adoption of electric two-wheelers can reduce traffic noise and road congestion but may necessitate adaptations of urban infrastructure and safety regulations. A case-specific assessment as part of an integrated urban mobility planning that accounts, e.g., for the local electricity mix, infrastructure characteristics, and mode-shift behavior, should be conducted before drawing conclusions about the sustainability impacts of electric two-wheelers.     

Anticipating PEV buyers’ acceptance of utility controlled charging

Utility controlled-charging (UCC) of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could potentially align vehicle charging with the availability of intermittent, renewable electricity sources. We investigated the case of a nightly charging program where the electric utility can control home PEV charging. To explore consumer acceptance of this form of UCC, we implemented a web-based survey of new vehicle buyers in Canada (n = 1470). The survey assessed interest in PEVs, explained UCC, and elicited openness to UCC through attitudinal questions and a stated choice experiment. We find potential for UCC support among one-half to two-thirds of respondents interested in purchasing a PEV, depending on the scenario. However, some respondents express concerns with privacy and loss of control. To quantify preferences for UCC, we estimated a latent class choice model where respondents chose between different PEV charging programs. The model identified four distinct respondent segments (or classes) that vary in their acceptance of UCC, as well as their valuation of renewable electricity, saving money on their electrical bill, and undergoing charging inconvenience. The overall sample was more sensitive to cost incentives than to renewable incentives, where cost-based UCC programs garnered 63–78% enrollment while renewable-based programs garnered only 49–59% enrollment. Overall, we observe the potential for widespread acceptance of UCC programs among Canadian PEV buyers, but program design and deployment will need to carefully acknowledge the various motivations and concerns of different vehicle buyer segments.     

How might potential future plug-in electric vehicle buyers differ from current “Pioneer” owners?

The entry of various plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into the passenger vehicle sector provides novel opportunities to learn about the potential for future PEV markets. However, early PEV buyers (or “Pioneers”) can substantially differ from present conventional vehicle owners that have interest in purchasing PEVs in the future (or the “Potential Early Mainstream buyers”). To compare the characteristics, preferences, and motivations of Pioneers and Potential Early Mainstream buyers, we draw data from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, a three-part mixed-mode survey with samples of PEV owners (n = 94) and conventional new vehicle buyers (n = 1754). We identify several significant differences in household characteristics, including income, education, and recharge access. In terms of preferences, Pioneers express extremely high valuation of PEVs and prefer pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) designs over plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) designs. In contrast, Potential Early Mainstream respondents prefer PHEVs. Both Pioneer and Potential Early Mainstream respondents are similarly cautious about controlled charging programs, but Pioneers place five times as much value on using electricity generated from renewable sources than the Potential Early Mainstream. Pioneers also tend to have different motivations, including significantly higher levels of environmental concern, and higher engagement in environment- and technology-oriented lifestyles. Policymakers, automakers, and electric utilities that anticipate a transition to electric mobility ought to consider how potential future PEV buyers may differ in their vehicle preferences, usage and motivations relative to current PEV owners.     

Statistical modeling of Electric Vehicle electricity consumption in the Victorian EV Trial,Australia

The market share of Electric Vehicles (EVs), an attractive alternative to conventional vehicles, is expected to exceed 30% of all vehicles by 2033 in Australia. Although the expected EV uptake may place greater burdens on electricity networks, the potential impacts contributed by different EV user categories and vehicle models to peak loads at different times during the day are not well understood. This paper addresses the issue through statistical analysis of the charge events in the Victorian EV Trial in Australia as well as modeling the charging behaviors according to participant categories and vehicle models. The analysis was performed on 4933 charge events that were recorded by both private and public Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment. In total, these events consumed over 33 MW h of energy over 12,170 h by the 178 trial participants, out of which about 70% were household participants while the others were fleet participants. Based on a range of EV uptake scenarios and modeled charging behaviors from the trial, the power demand in the summer of 2032/33 was estimated for all of Victoria. The results of the simulations show that the broad scale uptake of EVs produces a relatively small increase in overall power demand (estimated to be between 5.72% and 9.79% in 2032/33).     

The effects of physical activity on greenhouse gas emissions for common transport modes in European countries

This paper applies a life cycle methodology to estimate activity-related contributions of transport modes to GHG emissions. The methodology uses national input–output tables, environmental accounts, household budget data and nutritional data to derive food-sector GHG coefficients of consumption for ten European countries. The food energy requirements for each mode of transport are estimated taking account of the modal activity level and energy requirements. Typical national food energy-related emissions for walking, cycling, and driving ranged from 25.6 to 77.3 gCO₂-eq/pass.km, 10.4–31.4 gCO₂-eq/pass.km and 1.7–5.2 gCO₂-eq/pass.km; passenger transport was found to result in no food-related emissions above those for a resting individual. Emissions vary between countries depending on the emissions intensities of their energy sectors as well as food prices and average body weights. A life cycle assessment of modal emissions in the UK is undertaken using the food-energy emissions intensities estimated and car travel was found to have the highest emissions intensity, followed by bus, cycling and walking.     

Wireless charging in California: Range,recharge, and vehicle electrification

This research evaluated the potential for wireless dynamic charging (charging while moving) to address range and recharge issues of modern electric vehicles by considering travel to regional destinations in California. A 200-mile electric vehicle with a real range of 160 miles plus 40 miles reserve was assumed to be used by consumers in concert with static and dynamic charging as a strict substitute for gasoline vehicle travel. Different combinations of wireless charging power (20–120 kW) and vehicle range (100–300 miles) were evaluated. One of the results highlighted in the research indicated that travel between popular destinations could be accomplished with a 200-mile EV and a 40 kW dynamic wireless charging system at a cost of about $2.5 billion. System cost for a 200-mile EV could be reduced to less than $1 billion if wireless vehicle charging power levels were increased to 100 kW or greater. For vehicles consuming 138 kWh of dynamic energy per year on a 40 kW dynamic system, the capital cost of $2.5 billion plus yearly energy costs could be recouped over a 20-year period at an average cost to each vehicle owner of $512 per year at a volume of 300,000 vehicles or $168 per year at a volume of 1,000,000 vehicles. Cost comparisons of dynamic charging, increased battery capacity, and gasoline refueling were presented. Dynamic charging, coupled with strategic wayside static charging, was shown to be more cost effective to the consumer over a 10-year period than gasoline refueling at $2.50 or $4.00 per gallon. Notably, even at very low battery prices of $100 per kWh, the research showed that dynamic charging can be a more cost effective approach to extending range than increasing battery capacity.     

Influence of driving patterns on vehicle emissions: A case study for Latin American cities

On-board real-time emission experiments were conducted on 78 light-duty vehicles in Bogota. Direct emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and hydrocarbons (HC) were measured. The relationship between such emissions and vehicle specific power (VSP) was established. The experimental matrix included both gasoline-powered and retrofit dual fuel (gasoline–natural gas) vehicles. The results confirm that VSP is an appropriate metric to obtain correlations between driving patterns and air pollutant emissions. Ninety-five percent of the time vehicles in Bogota operate in a VSP between −15.2 and 17.7 kW ton⁻¹, and 50% of the time they operate between −2.9 and 1.2 kW ton⁻¹, representing low engine-load and near-idling conditions, respectively. When engines are subjected to higher loads, pollutant emissions increase significantly. This demonstrates the relevance of reviewing smog check programs and command-and-control measures in Latin America, which are widely based on static (i.e., idling) emissions testing. The effect of different driving patterns on the city’s emissions inventory was determined using VSP and numerical simulations. For example, improving vehicle flow and reducing sudden and frequent accelerations could curb annual emissions in Bogota by up to 12% for CO₂, 13% for CO and HC, and 24% for NO_x. This also represents possible fuel consumption savings of between 35 and 85 million gallons per year and total potential economic benefits of up to 1400 million dollars per year.     

An empirical assessment of the feasibility of battery electric vehicles for day-to-day driving

Driven by sustainability objectives, Australia like many nations in the developed world, is considering the option of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an alternative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). In addition to issues of capital and running costs, crucial questions remain over the specifications of such vehicles, particularly the required driving range, recharge time, re-charging infrastructure, performance, and other attributes that will be of importance to consumers. With this in mind, this paper assesses (hypothetically) the extent to which current car travel needs could be met by BEVs for a sample of motorists in Sydney assuming a home-based charging set-up, which is likely to be the primary option for early adopters of the technology. The approach uses five weeks of driving data recorded by GPS technology and builds up home-home tours to assess the distances between (in effect) charging possibilities. An energy consumption model based on characteristics of the vehicle, and the speeds recorded by the GPS is adapted to determine the charge used, while a battery recharge function is used to determine charging times based on the current battery level. Among the most pertinent findings are that over the five weeks, (i) BEVs with a range as low as 60 km and a simple home-charge set-up would be able to accommodate well over 90% of day-to-day driving, (ii) however the incidence of tours requiring out-of-home charging increases markedly for vehicles below 24 kWh (170 km range), (iii) recharge time in itself has little impact on the feasibility of BEVs because vehicles spend the majority of their time parked and (iv) effective range can be dramatically impacted by both how a vehicle is driven and use of electrical auxiliaries, and (v) while unsuitable for long, high-speed journeys without some external re-charging options, BEVs appear particularly suited for the majority of day-to-day city driving in big cities where average journey speeds of 34 km/h are close to optimal in terms of maximising vehicle range. The paper has implications for both policy-makers and auto manufacturers in breaking down some of the (perceived) barriers to greater uptake of BEVs in the future.     

China’s electric car frustrations

By 2020, the vehicle population in China will likely exceed 280 million—exacerbating national energy security, urban air pollution, and traffic congestion. In response, many local and regional governments in China are pursuing an expanding array of measures to restrain growth in personal vehicle ownership and, along with the central government, reducing emissions and energy use of vehicles. One prominent strategy is the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Large subsidies were offered—up to $27,600 (171,000 RMB) per vehicle in some regions, including almost $9200 (57,000 RMB) from the central government—which suggests that China is making a major commitment to PEVs. But sales have been meager. In 2013, only 17,600 PEVs, mostly buses and utility trucks, were sold, less than 0.1% of total civilian vehicle sales. Several factors explain the failure of PEV sales to take off: (1) protectionism by local governments; (2) uncertainty over which electric-drive vehicle technologies to promote and what consumers are willing to pay, (3) lagging investments in charging infrastructure, and (4) conservative investment behavior by automakers and battery manufacturers. The central government issued directives to local governments in late 2013 to reduce barriers to out-of-town companies, resulting in modest sales increases in early 2014, but a more coherent, broader, and effective set of policies, incentives, and strategies are needed to overcome consumer and industry resistance and the lack of charging infrastructure.     

Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

How driver behaviour and parking alignment affects inductive charging systems for electric vehicles

Inductive charging, a form of wireless charging, uses an electromagnetic field to transfer energy between two objects. This emerging technology offers an alternative solution to users having to physically plug in their electric vehicle (EV) to charge. Whilst manufacturers claim inductive charging technology is market ready, the efficiency of transfer of electrical energy is highly reliant on the accurate alignment of the coils involved. Therefore understanding the issue of parking misalignment and driver behaviour is an important human factors question, and the focus of this paper. Two studies were conducted, one a retrospective analysis of 100 pre-parked vehicles, the second a dynamic study where 10 participants parked an EV aiming to align with a charging pad with no bay markings as guidance. Results from both studies suggest that drivers are more accurate at parking laterally than in the longitudinal direction, with a mean lateral distance from the centre of the bay being 12.12 and 9.57 cm (retrospective and dynamic studies respectively) compared to longitudinally 23.73 and 73.48 cm. With current inductive charging systems having typical tolerances of approximately ±10 cm from their centre point, this study has shown that only 5% of vehicles in both studies would be aligned sufficiently accurately to allow efficient transfer of electrical energy through induction.     

Effects of battery chemistry and performance on the life cycle greenhouse gas intensity of electric mobility

Lithium traction batteries are a key enabling technology for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Traction battery manufacture contributes to vehicle production emissions, and battery performance can have significant effects on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for PEVs. To assess emissions from PEVs, a life cycle perspective that accounts for vehicle production and operation is needed. However, the contribution of batteries to life cycle emissions hinge on a number of factors that are largely absent from previous analyses, notably the interaction of battery chemistry alternatives and the number of electric vehicle kilometers of travel (e-VKT) delivered by a battery. We compare life cycle GHG emissions from lithium-based traction batteries for vehicles using a probabilistic approach based on 24 hypothetical vehicles modeled on the current US market. We simulate life-cycle emissions for five commercial lithium chemistries. Examining these chemistries leads to estimates of emissions from battery production of 194–494 kg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) per kWh of battery capacity. Combined battery production and fuel cycle emissions intensity for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is 226–386 g CO₂e/e-VKT, and for all-electric vehicles 148–254 g CO₂e/e-VKT. This compares to emissions for vehicle operation alone of 140–244 g CO₂e/e-VKT for grid-charged electric vehicles. Emissions estimates are highly dependent on the emissions intensity of the operating grid, but other upstream factors including material production emissions, and operating conditions including battery cycle life and climate, also affect life cycle GHG performance. Overall, we find battery production is 5–15% of vehicle operation GHG emissions on an e-VKT basis.     

Analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles’ utility factors using GPS-based longitudinal travel data

The benefit of using a PHEV comes from its ability to substitute gasoline with electricity in operation. Defined as the proportion of distance traveled in the electric mode, the utility factor (UF) depends mostly on the battery capacity, but also on many other factors, such as travel pattern and recharging pattern. Conventionally, the UFs are calculated based on the daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) by assuming motorists leave home in the morning with a full battery, and no charge occurs before returning home in the evening. Such an assumption, however, ignores the impact of the heterogeneity in both travel and charging behavior, such as going back home more than once in a day, the impact of available charging time, and the price of gasoline and electricity. Moreover, the conventional UFs are based on the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, which are one-day travel data of each sample vehicle. A motorist’s daily travel distance variation is ignored. This paper employs the GPS-based longitudinal travel data (covering 3–18 months) collected from 403 vehicles in the Seattle metropolitan area to investigate how such travel and charging behavior affects UFs. To do this, for each vehicle, we organized trips to a series of home and work related tours. The UFs based on the DVMT are found close to those based on home-to-home tours. On the other hand, it is seen that the workplace charge opportunities significantly increase UFs if the CD range is no more than 40 miles.     

Electric vehicle parking in European and American context: Economic,energy and environmental analysis

The transportation sector faces increasing challenges related to energy consumption and local and global emissions profiles. Thus, alternative vehicle technologies and energy pathways are being considered in order to overturn this trend and electric mobility is considered one adequate possibility towards a more sustainable transportation sector.In this sense, this research work consisted on the development of a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of deploying EV charging stations (Park-EV) by quantifying the tradeoff between economic and energy/environmental impacts for EV parking spaces deployment. This methodology was applied to 4 different cities (Lisbon, Madrid, Minneapolis and Manhattan), by evaluating the influence of parking premium, infrastructure cost and occupancy rates on the investment Net Present Value (NPV). The main findings are that the maximization of the premium and the minimization of the equipment cost lead to higher NPV results. The NPV break-even for the cities considered is more “easily” reached for higher parking prices, namely in the case of Manhattan with the higher parking price profile. In terms of evaluating occupancy rates of the EV parking spaces, shifting from a low usage (LU) to a high usage (HU) scenario represented a reduction in the premium to obtain a NPV = 0 of approximately 14% for a 2500 € equipment cost, and, in the case of a zero equipment cost (e.g. financed by the city), a NPV = 0 was obtained with approximately a 2% reduction in the parking premium. Moreover, due to the use of electric mobility instead of the average conventional technologies, Well-to-Wheel (WTW) gains for Lisbon, Madrid, Minneapolis and Manhattan were estimated in 58%, 53%, 52% and 75% for energy consumption and 66%, 75%, 62% and 86% for CO₂ emissions, respectively.This research confirms that the success of deploying an EV charging stations infrastructure will be highly dependent on the price the user will have to pay, on the cost of the infrastructure deployed and on the adhesion of the EV users to this kind of infrastructure. These variables are not independent and, consequently, the coordination of public policies and private interest must be promoted in order to reach an optimal solution that does not result in prohibitive costs for the users.     

Socially optimal electric driving range of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

This study determines the optimal electric driving range of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that minimizes the daily cost borne by the society when using this technology. An optimization framework is developed and applied to datasets representing the US market. Results indicate that the optimal range is 16 miles with an average social cost of $3.19 per day when exclusively charging at home, compared to $3.27 per day of driving a conventional vehicle. The optimal range is found to be sensitive to the cost of battery packs and the price of gasoline. When workplace charging is available, the optimal electric driving range surprisingly increases from 16 to 22 miles, as larger batteries would allow drivers to better take advantage of the charging opportunities to achieve longer electrified travel distances, yielding social cost savings. If workplace charging is available, the optimal density is to deploy a workplace charger for every 3.66 vehicles. Moreover, the diversification of the battery size, i.e., introducing a pair and triple of electric driving ranges to the market, could further decrease the average societal cost per PHEV by 7.45% and 11.5% respectively.     

Estimation of nitrogen oxides emissions from petrol and diesel passenger cars by means of on-board monitoring: Effect of vehicle speed,vehicle technology,engine type on emission rates

NO_X emission rates of 13 petrol and 3 diesel passenger cars as a function of average speed from 10 to 120 km/h, emission class (pre-Euro 1 – Euro 5), engine type were investigated by on-board monitoring on roads and highways of St. Petersburg using a portative Testo XXL 300 gas analyzer. The highest level of NO_X emission 0.5–2.5 g/km was inherent to old pre-Euro 1 petrol cars without a catalytic converter. NO_X emissions rates of Euro 1 and Euro 2 petrol cars changed within 0.15–0.9 g/km, Euro 3 – 0.015–0.27 g/km, Euro 4 – 0.013–0.1 g/km, Euro 5 – 0.002–0.043 g/km. Euro 3 – Euro 4 petrol cars generally satisfied corresponding NO_X Emission Standards (ES), except cold-start period, Euro 5 petrol cars did not exceed ES. Warmed, stabilized engines of Euro 3 – Euro 5 petrol cars showed 5–10 times lower NO_X emission rates than corresponding ES in the range of speed from 20 to 90 km/h. NO_X emission rates of diesel Euro 3 and Euro 4 cars varied from 0.45 to 1.1 g/km and from 0.31 to 1.1 g/km, respectively. Two examined diesel Euro 3 and one Euro 4 passenger vehicles did not satisfy NO_X ES at real use. Euro 3 diesel cars showed 28.9 times higher NO_X emissions than Euro 3 petrol cars and Euro 4 diesel car demonstrated 17.6 times higher NO_X emissions than Euro 4 petrol cars at warmed and stabilized engine at a cruise speed ranging from 30 to 60 km/h.     

Biofuels in aviation: Fuel demand and CO2 emissions evolution in Europe toward 2030

This article presents the results of a scenario-based study carried out at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre aimed at analyzing the future growth of aviation, the resulting fuel demand and the deployment of biofuels in the aviation sector in Europe. Three scenarios have been produced based on different input assumptions and leading to different underlying patterns of growth and resulting volumes of traffic. Data for aviation growth and hence fuel demand have been projected on a year by year basis up to 2030, using 2010 as the baseline. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, the type of aircrafts, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The target of the European Advanced Biofuels Flightpath to ensure the commercialization and consumption of 2 million tons of sustainably produced paraffinic biofuels in the aviation sector by 2020, has also been taken into account. Results regarding CO₂ emission projections to 2030, reveal a steady annual increase in the order of 3%, 1% and 4% on average, for the three different scenarios, providing also a good correlation compared to the annual traffic growth rates that are indicated in the three corresponding scenarios. In absolute values, these ratios correspond to the central, the pessimistic and the optimistic scenarios respectively, corresponding to 360 million tonnes CO₂ emissions in 2030, ranging from 271 to 401 million tonnes for the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, respectively. This article also reports on the supply potential of aviation biofuels (clustered in HEFA/HVOs and biojet) based on the production capacity of facilities around the world and provides an insight on the current and future trends in aviation based on the European and national policies, innovations and state-of-the art technologies that will influence the future of sustainable fuels in aviation.     

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.