Learning from Los Angeles: transport,urban form,and air quality

Los Angeles is well known around the world as an automobile-oriented low density community, yet recent transportation policies have emphasized greater capital investment in rail transportation than in highways, and recent policies have attempted to discourage automobile usage through transportation demand management. While these policies have accomplished small shifts toward public transport and somewhat lower dependence upon singly occupied automobilies for work commuting, the financial costs of these policy changes has been very large in relation to their benefits. Proper pricing of transportation alternatives, more creative use of new and emerging transportation technologies, and the provision of many more opportunities for simpler private sector transport services, would all appear to be more promising as cost-effective approaches to coping with congestion in Los Angeles than the current regional transportation policies.     

Testing the limits of TSM: the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics

This paper analyzes the impact of the transportation system management (TSM) program employed during the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics. Two issues are examined. First, the impact of the various elements of the TSM program on transportation system performance is measured by conducting a series of traffic simulation studies. The results show that TSM was an important contributing factor in the favorable traffic conditions experienced during the Olympics. Second, the potential of employing TSM as a long-term transportation policy strategy is assessed. It is concluded that the travel behavior changes that occurred in response to the TSM program were unique and short-term. Under ordinary circumstances, incentives do not exist to induce changes of the magnitude observed during the Olympics.     

Deploying the advanced public transportation systems (APTS) technologies in Los Angeles: A summary and analysis

This paper first introduces the key players involved in the deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. The paper then reports the local deployment status of major Advanced Public Transportation Systems (APTS) projects, with a particular emphasis placed on the burgeoning Los Angeles Smart Shuttle Demonstration Project. In addition, the paper analyzes some technical, political, financial and other issues centering around the deployment of APTS technologies in the Los Angeles metropolitan area.     

Expert versus lay perception of the risks of motor vehicle-generated air pollution

We explore whether experts’ perceptions of risk differ systematically from those of the public. To do so, we examine whether experts and non-experts make different location decisions in response to ground-level ozone pollution, one of the byproducts of motorized transportation. Physicians are experts in the field of health, and thus may differ from their lay neighbors in their knowledge of and attitude toward pollution and its health risks. If so, it is possible that they value locations with cleaner air differently than their neighbors do. Here we use hedonic price models based on willingness to bear housing and commute burdens to examine the differential valuation of clean air by doctors and laypeople in the Los Angeles region between 1980 and 2000. We find no evidence that doctors are more or less more willing than comparable lay residents to trade off time or money to live in cleaner-air neighborhoods.     

Improving the resolution of gridded-hourly mobile emissions: incorporating spatial variability and handling missing data

To more accurately predict hourly running stabilized link volumes for emissions modeling, a new method was recently developed that disaggregates the period-based model link volumes into hourly volumes using observed traffic count data and multivariate multiple regression (MMR). This paper extends the MMR methodology with clustering and classification analyses to account for spatial variability and to accommodate model links that do not have matching observed traffic count data. The methodology was applied to data collected in the South Air Basin. The spatial analysis resulted in identifying five clusters (or 24-h profiles) for San Diego and two clusters for Los Angeles. The MMR models were then estimated with and without clustering. For San Diego, the disaggregated model volumes with clustering were much closer to the observed volumes than those without clustering, with the exception of the a.m. period. For most hours in Los Angeles, the predicted volumes with clustering were only slightly closer to the observed volumes than those predicted without clustering, suggesting that spatial effects are minimal in Los Angeles (i.e., that 24-h volume profiles are fairly similar throughout the region) and clustering is not necessary. Finally, two classification models, one for San Diego and one for Los Angeles were developed and tested for network link data that does not have matching observed count data. The results indicate the procedure is relatively good at predicting a cluster assignment for the unmatched location for Los Angeles but less accurate for San Diego.     

Bus dispatching at timed transfer transit stations using bus tracking technology

A timed transfer terminal synchronizes the arrival of incoming vehicles with the departure of outgoing vehicles so as to minimize transfer delays. Most bus timed transfer terminals follow fixed schedules, and do not utilize intelligent transportation systems for vehicle tracking and control. This paper reviews technologies that enable real-time control of timed transfer. We evaluate the benefits of tracking bus locations and executing dynamic schedule control through the simulation of a generic timed transfer terminal under a range of conditions. Based on empirical data collected by the Los Angeles County/Metropolitan Transit Agency, we found delay over segments of long-headway bus lines to be negatively correlated with lateness at the start of the segment, indicating that buses have a tendency to catch up when they fall behind schedule. The simulation analysis showed that the benefit of bus tracking is most significant when one of the buses experiences a major delay, especially when there is a small number of connecting buses.     

Assessing air quality and health benefits of the Clean Truck Program in the Alameda corridor,CA

In this paper, vehicle microscopic simulation and emission models were combined with an air pollutant dispersion model and a health assessment tool to quantify some social costs resulting from urban freight transportation in the Alameda corridor that links the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to downtown Los Angeles. Traffic on two busy freeways, the I-710 and the I-110, and some heavily trafficked arterial roads was analyzed to estimate the health impacts caused by drayage truck emissions of particulate matter (PM) for four different years: 2005, which serves as a baseline for various pollution inventories, as well as 2008, 2010 and 2012. These years correspond to deadlines for the Clean Truck Program (CTP), which was put in place to improve air quality in the Alameda corridor. Results show that the health costs from particulate matter (PM) emitted by drayage trucks exceeded 440 million dollars in 2005. However, these costs decreased by 36%, 90%, and 96% after accounting for the requirements of the 2008, 2010, and 2012 CTP deadlines. These results quantify the magnitude of the social costs generated by drayage trucks in the Alameda corridor, suggest that these costs justified replacing drayage trucks operating there, and indicate that the Clean Truck Program likely exceeded its target.     

Freight Data Assembling and Modeling: Methodologies and Practice

Abstract

In comparison to personal travel, freight movements within large metropolitan areas are much less studied. Most conventional transportation models and planning analysis that disregarded freight flows have been criticized on the plausibility of their results and conclusions. To alleviate these problems, this study proposes a non-survey based approach to assemble and process freight data in a systematic way. A freight origin–destination (OD) matrix of freight flows can be developed using secondary data sources. The estimated freight flows can be loaded together with conventional passenger flows onto the regional highway network of a large metropolitan area. As a case study, this non-survey based approach was applied to build a freight OD and study the traffic flows in Los Angeles. It concluded that this approach can be used to analyze urban freight movement in a low-cost way in which planning agencies can overcome the common omission of freight flow information in their transportation plans.     

Job accessibility and employment outcomes: which income groups benefit the most?

Improving job accessibility can increase the probability for individual persons to be employed and reduce their commutes. Empirical research suggests that the relationship between job accessibility and employment outcomes differ across income groups, but no research has investigated the difference or explored which income groups benefit the most from job accessibility improvements. This research fills the gap by examining six income groups in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Results show that job accessibility affects the employment status of medium-to-low income groups (household income between US$25,000 and US$75,000). For the lowest-income group (household income lower than US$25,000), owning a car significantly improves their chances to be employed, but job accessibility has no effect. On the other hand, higher job accessibility is associated with shorter commuting distance for the other five income groups, but not for the lowest-income group. These results suggest that transportation and land use policies need to address the specific needs of distinct population groups and underscore the importance of spatial access for the middle-class, which tends to be overlooked in the literature on transportation equity.     

Short-term travel time prediction

Effective prediction of travel times is central to many advanced traveler information and transportation management systems. In this paper we propose a method to predict freeway travel times using a linear model in which the coefficients vary as smooth functions of the departure time. The method is straightforward to implement, computationally efficient and applicable to widely available freeway sensor data.We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by applying the method to two real-life loop detector data sets. The first data set––on I-880––is relatively small in scale, but very high in quality, containing information from probe vehicles and double loop detectors. On this data set the prediction error ranges from 5% for a trip leaving immediately to 10% for a trip leaving 30 min or more in the future. Having obtained encouraging results from the small data set, we move on to apply the method to a data set on a much larger spatial scale, from Caltrans District 12 in Los Angeles. On this data set, our errors range from about 8% at zero lag to 13% at a time lag of 30 min or more. We also investigate several extensions to the original method in the context of this larger data set.     

Advanced transportation economic development

The end of the cold war and confrontational politics of the eastern and western worlds have raised the possibility that resources formerly targeted toward military systems and options may be turned towards global lifestyle improvements [OTA, 1993]. Transportation has been one of the fields proposed as a likely candidate for both improvements and jobs. It is not possible to address economic development in the context of all transportation in one essay. For this reason I am only addressing the issues of economic development associated with mass transportation characteristic of urban and interurban environments. Realigning former defense resources to mass transit requires careful consideration of market conditions. According to economic survey data published by the Economic Roundtable in Los Angeles, there are currently less than 40,000 manufacturing jobs in the U.S. rail transportation industry [Drayse, 1993]. The same survey pointed out a severe mismatch between the skill base required by the rail industry and available defense technology resources. There exists no large base of unsatisfied demand in the rail market, therefore development of a large number of jobs is not likely if the approach is simply to introduce additional competing resources into a traditional market [Monitor, 1993].     

The impact of rush hour traffic and mix on the ozone weekend effect in southern California

The ozone weekend effect refers to the counterintuitive observations showing weekend ozone concentrations frequently to be higher than or comparable to those observed on weekdays. Ozone dynamics are closely linked to the timing, magnitude and fleet mix of transportation activities, primary sources of ozone precursor emissions. To examine the effects of traffic activity on the ozone weekend effect, a statistical analysis was conducted of the weekly patterns of time dependent light-duty vehicle and heavy-duty truck volumes observed at 27 weigh-in-motion stations in southern California. The results show statistically significant variations in traffic flows by day of week, by vehicle type, and by location with respect to the Los Angeles metropolitan area. These variations in traffic, when converted to variations in running exhaust emissions, tend to support four of the seven California Air Resources Board’s ozone weekend effect hypotheses.     

Illuminating the unseen in transit use: A framework for examining the effect of attitudes and perceptions on travel behavior

This study develops the Perception–Intention–Adaptation (PIA) framework to examine the role of attitudes, perceptions, and norms in public transportation ridership. The PIA framework is then applied to understand the relative importance of socio-demographic, built environment, transit service, and socio-psychological factors on public transit use for 279 residents of south Los Angeles, California, a predominately low-income, non-white neighborhood. Confirmatory factor analysis based on 21 survey items resulted in six transit-relevant socio-psychological factors which were used in regression models of two measures of transit use: the probability of using transit at least once in the 7-day observation period, and the mean number of daily transit trips. Our analysis indicates that two PIA constructs, attitudes toward public transportation and concerns about personal safety, significantly improved the model fit and were robust predictors of transit use, independent of built environment factors such as near-residence street network connectivity and transit service level. Results indicate the need for combined policy approaches to increasing transit use that not only enhance transit access, but also target attitudes about transit service and perceptions of crime on transit.     

Bus crime in Los Angeles: I—Measuring the incidence

Based on a large study of bus crime in Los Angeles, this article discusses a method for estimating the number of transit crimes and examines sources of information loss within existing transit crime statistics. Using data from a victimization survey of 1088 households in west central Los Angeles, it was estimated that there were about 23,000 bus and bus-related crimes occurring in the survey area during 1983. This is 25 to 30 times the number reported by the Southern California Rapid Transit District for their entire service area. Comparisons with the 1980 census were made to evaluate bias in the sample, and it was found that the sample has probably underestimated the total amount of bus crime in the survey area. Results consistent with Los Angeles Police Department records was shown. Bus and bus-related crimes account for 20 to 30% of all crimes experienced by the central city population. Major sources of information loss are (a) crimes occurring outside buses, but during a trip; (b) non-reporting of crimes by victims; (c) non-response by police even when crimes were reported; and (d) statistical “loss” from reports taken by local police; local police do not categorize crimes by transit use. It was recommended that transit agencies cross-classify existing police reports for more accurate information. Local police should be encouraged to systematically collect data on transit behavior for both victims and assailants.     

The relative importance of price and driving range on electric vehicle adoption: Los Angeles case study

Electric vehicles (EVs) are still a maturing technology. Barriers to their adoption include price and range anxiety. EV batteries are significant in determining both EV prices and costs. In this work, we focus on the impact of a high-capacity battery and EV rebates on an EV ecosystem. Using survey data from Los Angeles, California, we simulate different cases of battery costs and prices by means of an agent-based EV ecosystem model. We find that even in Los Angeles, a geographically spread out city, the price of EVs is a more significant barrier to adoption than EV range. In fact, even a quintupling of battery size at no additional costs improves EV adoption by only 5 %. Therefore, policy makers should focus more on affordability than range in promoting EV adoption.     

Environmental justice and hazmat transport: A spatial analysis in southern California

This paper explores whether the risk of a toxic release during transport is greater in poor and minority neighborhoods using a combination of mapping and statistical methods. Cluster analysis is used to examine the density of facilities and transport spill events as well as test for the spatial covariance between facilities and spills. Strong clustering of transport spills is evident, as well as clustering between factory sites and transport spills. A spatial model demonstrates raised rates of transport spills surrounding clusters of toxic firms. Most spills in Los Angeles occurred within 2 km of an intermodal facility. The last step of the analysis compares risk and facility clustering between neighborhoods and socio-economic groups, finding that hazmat spills during transport disproportionately occur in Latino neighborhoods in Los Angeles. The results clarify the spatial distribution of risk and nuisance from freight in urban landscapes.     

Cellpath: Fusion of cellular and traffic sensor data for route flow estimation via convex optimization

A new convex optimization framework is developed for the route flow estimation problem from the fusion of vehicle count and cellular network data. The issue of highly underdetermined link flow based methods in transportation networks is investigated, then solved using the proposed concept of cellpaths for cellular network data. With this data-driven approach, our proposed approach is versatile: it is compatible with other data sources, and it is model agnostic and thus compatible with user equilibrium, system-optimum, Stackelberg concepts, and other models. Using a dimensionality reduction scheme, we design a projected gradient algorithm suitable for the proposed route flow estimation problem. The algorithm solves a block isotonic regression problem in the projection step in linear time. The accuracy, computational efficiency, and versatility of the proposed approach are validated on the I-210 corridor near Los Angeles, where we achieve 90% route flow accuracy with 1033 traffic sensors and 1000 cellular towers covering a large network of highways and arterials with more than 20,000 links. In contrast to long-term land use planning applications, we demonstrate the first system to our knowledge that can produce route-level flow estimates suitable for short time horizon prediction and control applications in traffic management. Our system is open source and available for validation and extension.     

Crime in public transit systems: An environmental design perspective

Crime on public transit is receiving increasing attention in the United States. This paper reviews security precautions taken in the planning of bus operations. Also included is a statistical analysis of criminal incidents occurring over a ten-year period on the Southern California Rapid Transit District of Los Angeles. The analysis shows that crime on transit has increased about in proportion to transit ridership, and that it is concentrated in both space and time. Crimes occur mostly on routes which traverse areas having high crime rates in general. Although most transit crimes occur at hours when ridership is high, the rates of occurrence are disproportionately high during the evening hours. Bus drivers experience much higher rates of exposure to criminal incidents than transit passengers. The transportation environment is really a complex of many dissimilar environments, and a variety of strategies is required to meet the needs posed by diverse environments.     

A new role for planners: Working with community residents in formulating alternative plans for street patterns—Before decision making

Citizen participation at the neighborhood level will become effective only if reliable procedures can be developed for involving residents in the formulation of alternative plans before official decisions are made. Therefore, a research project in transportation planning was conducted in the Pico-Union neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, in order to design and test methods for producing reliable information that could be used by the neighborhood as well as by city transportation planners.The transportation problem of most concern to the residents of Pico-Union was the patterns and uses of their local streets, rather than the usual trip-to-work problem. Two independent methods were designed for determining what street patterns and uses were most preferred by the resident: a home-interview method and a photo-comparison method. The second enabled residents to compare photographic simulations of many possible re-designs of one of their local streets, and to make individual and group decisions about them. Results of the two methods generally agreed. However, one part of the research revealed that significant differences in decisions occur when simple changes are made in the orientation and sequence of the same two photographic simulations.Methods can be developed for obtaining information useful in urban planning at the neighborhood level by involving residents in an iterative learning and decision process. Broadly representative interdisciplinary teams are needed for further research to improve the reliability of such methods and for putting them into practice.     

Congestion relief toll tunnels

Changing urban land-use patterns have reduced the importance of traditional downtowns as the origin and destination of numerous vehicular trips. Much traffic on downtown-area freeways seeks merely to get past downtown, thereby worsening the level of congestion for those seeking access to downtown.A number of European cities have begun to develop a new type of transportation facility: congestion-relief toll tunnels in downtown areas. These projects appear to be economically feasible largely or entirely from premium-price tolls paid by users. Hence, they are being developed by private consortia, operating under long-term franchises from government. Other keys to the feasibility of such projects are peak/off-peak pricing structures (congestion pricing), nonstop electronic toll collection, and restriction of use to auto-size vehicles only (to reduce tunnel dimensions and therefore capital investment).Preliminary analysis indicates that congestion-telief bypass runnels for downtown Los Angeles and San Francisco would be economically feasible as private business ventures, if developed along European lines. Similar approaches might be applied to other controversial freeway projects in both cities, and to restructuring Boston's huge and controversial Central Artery/Tunnel project.Congress has already authorized public-private partnerships of this type, permitting private capital and private owner/operation to be used, both for new projects and to rebuild existing highway, bridge, and tunnel facilities. Six states and Puerto Rico have enacted private-tollway legislation under which such projects could be developed and operated.This type of project should be politically feasible, since it offers a way to make significant transportation improvements in impacted downtowns with little or no public funding. While transit proponents may oppose the construction of toll tunnels, highway users are likely to support such projects, and some environmental groups may support this method of implementing congestion pricing in urban areas, because of its potential for reducing air emissions.