Real-time Monitoring of Subsea Gas Pipelines,Offshore Platforms,and Ship Inspection Scores Using an Automatic Identification System

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system (AIS). The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database, AIS data, and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines. A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype, which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship’s coordinates (longitude/latitude) as detected by AIS. Using such information, we can then build an early warning system (EWS) relayed through short message service (SMS), email, or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines. The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes. Then, decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel’s four attributes, including ship age, ship type, classification, and flag state. Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines, as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities. Meanwhile, ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.     

采用自动识别系统对水下输气管线、离岸平台和船舶检验评分的实时监测（英文）

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system(AIS). The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database,AIS data, and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines. A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype, which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship's coordinates(longitude/latitude) as detected by AIS. Using such information, we can then build an early warning system(EWS) relayed through short message service(SMS), email, or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines. The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes. Then, decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel's four attributes, including ship age, ship type, classification, and flag state.Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines, as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities. Meanwhile, ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

基于虚拟仪器的船舶监控系统研究

船舶监控系统的研究对船舶安全起着至关重要的作用,有助于提升船舶导航能力和海上交通管理能力。该文提出的基于虚拟仪器的船舶监控系统,应用LabVIEW图形化编程语言开发了AIS信息处理系统,能够实时采集网络最新发布的船舶信息数据,进行信息的解析和存储,同时应用Google Earth显示船舶的位置及路径信息。系统选用Kalman滤波对船舶的航迹进行跟踪优化,结合BP神经网络对船舶航迹进行预测。系统可实现AIS数据采集、解析、存储、显示、分析等多项功能。     

海底管道巡检船研发设计

简要介绍自主研发设计的"海底管道巡检船"船型的主要技术性能和技术特点。该船定位为国内首艘海底管道巡检船,搭载专业声学探测装置,抗风浪性能良好,能够持久巡线并应急响应,其各项功能均针对渤海海域海底管道运维需求进行设计,能够保障海底管道安全运营,排除隐患以避免或最大限度降低管道泄漏造成的损失。     

长江口深水航道整治效益分析 ——以船舶通航变化为例

根据VTS和AIS船舶数据记录,利用AIS船舶航行轨迹线分析及流量统计软件,对长江口深水航道建设不同时期 的船舶流量、船舶货运量及船舶的实际吃水情况进行统计分析,从而为深水航道建设带来的航运经济利益推算提供基础数据。     

海底埋设管线平管起吊运动分析

基于有限元软件OrcaFlex,充分考虑不规则波浪、海流、管土相互作用以及船舶管线耦合运动,建立海底埋设管线平管起吊模型。参考DNV-RP-F110计算埋深管道受到的土壤阻力,依据DNV-RP-C205确定相关水动力系数。通过数值模拟研究分析管线在平管起吊过程中管道的运动响应以及吊绳张力的时间历程变化,为实际海底管线平管起吊提供一定理论参考。     

基于动态二叉树的西江航运干线多梯级船闸链调度

针对西江航运船闸调度以经验管理为主、缺乏有效定量分析现状,提出了基于船闸拥堵系数、船舶日积压损失、航道安全水位各要素于一体的西江航运干线多梯级船闸联合调度链。基于西江航运干线天然的叶脉状分布特点,提出了动态二叉树模型的西江多梯级船闸链的调度算法。结果表明:通过对船舶的合理分流,能够有效缓解船闸滞航减少事故发生率。其模型已应用于航运管理部门,有效地优化了船闸链调度、保障了航运物资安全。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

基于自动识别系统和门控递归装置的港口流量预测模型（英文）

Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurrent units(GRUs) and Markov residual correction to pass a fixed cross-section.To analyze the traffic flow of ships,the statistical method of ship traffic flow based on the automatic identification system(AIS) is introduced.And a model is put forward for predicting the ship flow.According to the basic principle of cyclic neural networks,the law of ship traffic flow in the channel is explored in the time series.Experiments have been performed using a large number of AIS data in the waters near Xiazhimen in Zhoushan,Ningbo,and the results show that the accuracy of the GRU-Markov algorithm is higher than that of other algorithms,proving the practicability and effectiveness of this method in ship flow prediction.     

Analysis of ship drifting in a narrow channel using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

With maritime transportation has played an important role in global economy development, ship traffic has become more congested. Therefore, ships navigate under risk conditions, and thus maritime accidents have occurred frequently. Especially, ship passing through a narrow channel is even more dangerous. Because, the ships are easy to be affected by external forces such as wind and currents that can cause ship drifts. Many latent risks are present during navigation. In order for the development of a sensible and appropriate traffic model for the safety and efficiency ship navigation, this study has focused on the actual ship behavior to understand the ship drift in the Kurushima Strait, Japan, which is one of the most dangerous routes in Japan. The analysis of ship behavior was carried out using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. As a result, the ships drift was understood in detail, and the latent risk was unveiled when ships pass through the narrow route. Moreover, the risk areas were obtained and visualized by the ship drift behavior analysis. The obtained results can be applied to ensure safe navigation and the development of an eco-friendly and economy efficient for ship navigation.     

台湾海峡海损事故的灰色关联矩阵分析

通过采用灰色系统理论中的关联分析原理，建立海事种类与导致海事原因、船舶尺度大小、海事发生地理位置及海事发生时间的灰色关联矩阵，并运用台湾海峡船舶海损事故统计资料，对台湾海峡发生海事的特点及规律进行分析，为改善台湾海峡的海上交通安全状况提供有益的参考。     

Reliability-based design of subsea light weight pipeline against lateral stability

The application of non-metallic light weight pipeline (LWP) in subsea oil/gas transmission system is subject to subsea pipeline on-bottom stability problem because of their light weight. Additional weight required for the stabilization of subsea LWP is a critical item to consider when decreasing the cost of the pipeline system. This paper presents an effective approach to determine the additional weight by utilizing a reliability-based assessment of subsea LWP against on-bottom stability. In the approach, a dynamic non-linear finite element model (FEM), including a model of fluids-pipe-soil interaction for the subsea pipeline, is used to study the pipeline displacement response. In-place analysis of a flexible pipe is presented as an example of the authors' methodology. Results show that displacements are largely affected with and without considering the lift force. Additionally, the uncertainties of all parameters used in the model are considered. With 145 cases of FEM calculations being the samples, a response surface model (RSM) is developed to predict the pipeline lateral displacement using the software Design-Expert. Combing with the RSM equation, the Monte Carlo simulation method is employed to estimate the probability of exceeding pipeline stability. To calculate the reliability of LWP for different submerged weights, the method introduces a calibrated factor into the serviceability limit state (SLS) function. The proposed approach can be used to determine the additional weight required for the on-bottom stability of subsea pipelines while considering the uncertainties of all relevant parameters.     

沿海干散货船的船价影响因素及概率统计分析

由于船舶的投资额很大,所以航运企业在做投资决策之前对船价的影响因素做系统的分析,并对其进行准确的估计,对航运企业来说是至关重要的。本文分析了近几年沿海干散货船舶市场的影响因素,并运用概率统计的方法给出了近期船价的概率分布模型。     

Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship–ship collision

A number of authors have proposed probabilistic risk based ship design for ship–ship collision, conditional to the local trading area of a vessel. The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No well-justified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship–ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.     

The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network

ABSTRACT

Straits and canals have always served as key nodes in shipping networks. The blockage of a strait or canal will lead to ship deviations and increased transportation costs. To measure this impact on the Chinese fleet, our study develops a mathematical model that is based on a programming formulation. Each strait or canal is assumed to be blocked in turn, and the increased transportation costs for the Chinese fleet in different scenarios are calculated and compared using the proposed programming formulation in order to measure the impact of the blocked strait or canal on the Chinese fleet. Larger increases in transportation costs have greater impacts on the fleet. The results show that a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would have the greatest impact of all straits and canals; it would cause the Chinese fleet to lose a portion of its import and export market, and such a blockage cannot be addressed through ship deviations. Based upon increased transportation costs, the four straits or canals that would have the greatest impact if blocked are the Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Sunda Strait and the English Channel.     

Oil spill risk analysis of routeing heavy ship traffic in Norwegian waters

Norwegian authorities have for a long time been concerned about the risk of oil spills outside the Norwegian coast. One of the key measures adopted has been to reduce the risk of ship accidents by imposing sailing routes for heavy ship traffic (over 5,000 gross tonnages) with high environmental risk potential farther away from part of the coast. This article is based upon two reports which conducted risk assessments of imposing such sailing routes outside the entire Norwegian coast. These routes were proposed by an expert group consisting of relevant stakeholders. Data of traffic pattern and number of sailing were collected for the year 2008 using the universal Automatic Identification System (AIS). The proposed route was compared with 2008 traffic pattern in regard to the accident frequencies and the expected oil spills per year. An accident and oil spilling simulation program called MARCS was used to simulate these results. After conducting a traffic forecast for the year 2025, the simulation was again run and the results compared with the year 2008. In total, the proposed route is expected to reduce oil spills by 590 t per year in 2008 and by 3670?t in 2025. The main reason for this substantial reduction is that the number of groundings is reduced because of the distance from the shore being increased. The reduction was particularly strong for tankers.     

船舶水上交通相对风险随机性的贝叶斯分析

船舶水上交通风险的评估一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。采用贝叶斯概率理论方法,通过贝叶斯统计、估计,结合国内引航及航运单位的船舶事故的实际情况,进行了事故发生频率与后果情况的贝叶斯概率评估。并着重就贝叶斯方法在船舶水上交通风险评估中的随机性特性问题进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯评估方法得到的结果具有良好的评估效果。     

跨水道海底管道隐患整治工程沉管施工风险分析

阐述跨水道海底管道隐患整治工程后挖沟、悬空位置连锁排及砂袋清除施工技术,对跨水道施工进行安全风险分析,探讨作业锚位对水道的影响,并采取有针对性的防控和应急措施。     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.