失效途径疲劳失效概率计算的一阶方法的改进

失效途径的疲劳可靠性分析是复杂结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的基础和关键,目前常用的方法是一阶可靠性方法（FORM）,由于没有考虑失效单元极限状态超曲面之间的相关性,易引起较大的计算误差。本文从分析失效单元极限状态超曲面的相互关系入手,提出了失效途径中各失效单元极限状态函数检验点新的选择准则,对一阶可靠性方法进行了改进。算例表明,本文提出的改进方法有效地提高了失效途径疲劳失效概率的计算精度。     

Fatigue damage estimation in non-linear systems using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method

For non-linear systems the estimation of fatigue damage under stochastic loadings can be rather time-consuming. Usually Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is applied, but the coefficient-of-variation (COV) can be large if only a small set of simulations can be done due to otherwise excessive CPU time. The reason is that the fatigue damage estimation is very sensitive to the largest values from the simulations. The paper suggests the additional use of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to get a better estimation of the tail in the distribution of the estimated fatigue damage and thereby reducing the COV. For a specific example dealing with stresses in a tendon in a tension leg platform the COV is thereby reduced by a factor of three.