改进遗传算法校核管道摩阻系数

针对传统的管道摩阻系数校正模型带来较大误差的缺点,构建了一种新的优化数学模型;并提出一种改进遗传算法对其求解,结果表明:该算法能够很好地修正管道摩阻系数值,从而提高管道配水系统模型的效率和精度。     

反应加速度法中地震动参数的修正研究

文章采用结构变形和自由场变形之间的相互作用系数修正反应加速度法中的地震动参数,近似考虑结构存在对场地地震动参数的影响,进而得出了修正的反应加速度法。为了验证该方法的适用性,设定某种地质条件下的典型圆形盾构隧道为基准模型,使用反应加速度法、修正方法、时程法计算衬砌刚度变化时的结构内力。结果表明,若以时程法为准,修正方法可提高反应加速度法的精度,且对设计中关注的弯矩精度提高最大。     

基于双面弹性地基梁的大直径盾构隧道管片上浮预测方法

基于双面弹性地基梁理论、修正纵向等效连续化模型以及浆液环向充填理论,在考虑上浮力时变性的基础上,进一步综合考虑了盾构施工步叠加效应、浆液压力分布和盾构台车的影响,构建了管片上浮预测模型,讨论了现有研究中浆液未凝固区域等效地层抗力系数的两种计算方式对预测结果的影响。结果表明,提出的双面弹性地基梁修正计算方法能够较好体现周围土层对管片的抗浮作用;浆液未凝固区域的等效地层抗力系数采用盾尾区域和浆液凝固区域的等效地层抗力系数取平均值的方法,计算结果和实测结果更为接近。     

锈蚀对吊杆应力集中系数的影响研究

文章针对吊杆锈蚀后的应力集中系数计算方法展开研究。利用ANSYS软件建立锈蚀吊杆有限元实体模型,并结合已有研究验证其可靠性;设计多种不同锈蚀状态的工况,建立相应的有限元模型,得出不同工况下应力集中系数;采用统计分析方法,得到不同锈蚀状态下应力集中系数的经验公式。采用本文所提出的计算方法,无须建立有限元模型即可快速得到吊杆应力集中系数,便于工程实际运用,为吊杆损伤状态的评价提供理论支撑。     

粘土地层大断面异形盾构隧道结构力学特征数值试验研究

文章基于修正惯用法和壳-弹簧模型两种计算方法,研究了原型试验条件下错缝拼装的异形盾构管片随覆土厚度增加的力学行为特征。研究结果表明,异形管片结构整体变形呈"横鸭蛋"形;环向接头存在使结构内力呈非对称分布,纵向接头的剪切作用和幅宽边缘对其加强作用使幅宽边缘内力普遍大于幅宽中央;基于平面应变状态的修正惯用法夸大了错缝拼装对管片纵向的加强作用,计算结果要大于考虑三维空间问题的壳-弹簧模型,说明修正惯用法作为异形管片的设计方法是偏于安全的;建议异形盾构管片横向刚度有效率范围为0.72~0.87,正弯矩区弯矩传递系数范围为0.245~0.256,负弯矩区弯矩传递系数范围为0.166~0.197。     

城市道路车道宽度计算模型的修正研究

文章以城市生活性主干道为例,对计算车道宽度的波良可夫公式进行了修正,得到了横向安全距离计算模型以及机动车道宽度适用推荐值,并论证了该模型应用的可行性与经济性。     

基于前景理论的双维度条件下动态路径选择

随着人们生活水平的提高,对出行过程的要求也有了新的标准,而目前在单维度基础上进行的出行路径选择研究已经逐渐偏离出行者的真实需求。为了更好的满足出行者的出行需求,本文以前景理论为基础,从费用维度与舒适维度两个层面对路径进行综合考察,即在考虑感知费用的前提下引入舒适度函数,并分别以动态修正费用函数与舒适度修正函数为参照点进行收益与损失判定,在得到相应前景值后,根据用户对出行过程的费用与舒适度偏重系数计算出路径综合前景值,并以此作为路径选择的判定基础。最后通过一个具体算例对模型进行验证与分析,结果显示相对于单维度的路径选择模型双维度判断更符合实际。     

考虑风险偏好的航班延误旅客行为选择模型

目前,航班延误在我国还很普遍。研究航班延误后旅客行为选择倾向,对提升航班延误后服务补救具有一定的实际意义。本文利用前景理论,构建了航班延误后旅客行为选择模型,在基于航班延误规模、旅客属性确定的动态参照点的基础上,进行风险偏好系数的修正,并以北京-上海航线大规模延误为研究背景,分别计算风险偏好系数相同及不同两种情况下旅客选择行为的前景值,确定不同延误情形下旅客的最优行为选择。通过调查问卷及实地调查两种方式得到航班延误后旅客的实际选择行为,并与理论计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明,前景理论能够较好的解释旅客的选择行为。同时,在充分考虑旅客风险偏好的基础上,理论模型与实际行为的契合度更高。     

近水平红层公路隧道围岩分级指标初探

在公路隧道设计和施工中,准确的隧道围岩分级是评价隧道稳定性、确保隧道建设与运营安全的前提。在近水平红层公路隧道的施工中,采用现行公路隧道围岩分级方法对近水平红层围岩进行分级,分级结果与围岩自稳能力所反映出的隧道实际围岩级别之间有很大差异。文章在分析近水平红层公路隧道围岩工程特性的基础上,研究了造成分级结果差异的原因,尝试对围岩分级指标中的地下水影响修正系数进行修正,增加了层厚影响系数,使现有公路隧道围岩分级方法适用于近水平红层公路隧道的围岩分级。利用实际工程对分级指标的适用性进行初步验证,采用修正后指标进行围岩分级得到的结果,能够满足近水平红层公路隧道设计与施工中对围岩稳定性评价的要求。     

地质构造和地形对N.Barton岩质评定系数Q值的影响分析

挪威岩土所Barton等人给出的岩质评定系数Q值计算式,从岩体的完整性、结构面发育程度、地下水和地应力的影响等方面,全面地反映了岩体的工程地质状况和水文地质状况,定量地反映了围岩质量的好坏,但对宏观地质构造及地形地貌的影响考虑相对较少.文章通过理论分析和数值计算,提出了三个修正系数,即褶皱影响系数Kfo、断层影响系数Kfa以及地形影响系数Ktf,并针对具体工程给出了相应的取值范围,对Q值进行了修正,反应了工程地质构造、地形地貌对Q值的影响程度,使其表达更为准确.     

Modeling traffic noise in a mountainous city using artificial neural networks and gradient correction

Different regions have established traffic noise prediction models to adapt to their particular environmental characteristics. This paper aimed to develop a traffic noise prediction model for mountainous cities. In China, the traffic noise prediction model HJ 2.4-2009, which itself is based on the sound pressure level corrected for roadway gradients (RGs), has been receiving widespread acceptance. On the basis of the model in HJ 2.4-2009, the RG correction coefficient was proposed to modify the original model and a per-vehicle noise prediction model was built using a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) model. The data collected from a municipal road of a hilly city, Chongqing, was used to train and validate the ANN model. The predictor variables comprised the per-vehicle noise value, vehicle type, vehicle velocity, and roadway gradient. The results showed that the modified HJ 2.4-2009 model incorporating the gradient correction coefficient achieved a significantly higher R² for mountainous cities than the original model. Besides, the ANN-based noise prediction model achieved considerable accuracy improvement over the empirical predictive equations.     

埋地热油管道沿程温降的数值模拟

运用fluent软件在三维笛卡尔直角坐标系下建立埋地热油管道的物理模型,分别对不同传热系数和不同流速的热油管道以及非稳态环境下的热油管道进行数值模拟,得到热油管道轴向温度的分布图,通过改变管道总传热系数和流速分析其温度的变化规律并对其进行比较分析。计算结果很好地反映出埋地热油管道沿程温降的基本特征,可为实际生产管理提供科学的依据,对于指导油田的输油生产、管道安全运行和节能降耗具有重要意义。     

探地雷达在隧道检测中里程偏差修正方法探讨

文章针对探地雷达在隧道质量检测中由于天线行走速度不一或检测人员打标记不及时产生的里程偏差,建立了检测里程与实际里程之间关系的数学模型,利用该模型对检测里程进行修正,可使检测结果回归到真实的里程.     

农村公路碾压混凝土路面干温缩试验分析

文章利用正交试验方法,分析水灰比、砂率、级配对碾压混凝土路面干缩系数及温缩系数的影响。结果表明：砂率对干缩和温缩系数的影响最为显著,水灰比对干缩系数的影响也较显著,但对温缩系数的影响不显著;级配对干缩系数和温缩系数的影响不太显著。     

水平管道中推移质与悬移质之间比例与平均流速之间关系的研究

根据前人的理论和研究成果,通过分析水平管道中推移质与悬移质组成的几何关系,对于水平管道中推移质与悬移质的之间比例与平均流速之间的关系进行了深入研究,得出推移质、悬移质与平均流速之间的关系式,确定了管道输送中的重要系数K4,对以后研究管道内流速分布以及确定临界速度奠定了基础。     

上海长江隧道管片环缝抗剪性能的试验与分析

结合上海长江隧道衬砌(φ15 m)1:1管片剪切试验,对试验数据进行分析,得出错动量随荷载变化的规律,进而得到环缝的剪切刚度计算公式及接触面的摩擦系数值.本文提出的管片环缝剪切刚度计算公式,可供今后类似工程参考使用.     

基层间接触状态对沥青路面结构受力的影响分析

文章基于有限元接触理论,建立考虑层间粘结状态的大厚度半刚性基层沥青路面结构有限元分析模型,模拟分析不同基层间摩擦系数条件下的路表弯沉变化规律、面层层底弯拉应力变化规律以及上下基层底部弯拉应力变化规律。结果表明:在基层间粘结接触较弱的情况下,完全假设各层间为连续状态分析得到的路面弯沉值及应力值会与考虑层间摩擦时的计算值存在较大的差异,对沥青路面结构受力分析合理性的影响是不可忽略的;只有基层间摩擦系数大到一定程度后,大厚度半刚性基层沥青路面结构才能近似等效为层间连续,在基层间摩擦系数较小的情况下,可采用有限元接触模型进行大厚度半刚性基层沥青路面结构的设计分析。     

Comparing prediction methods for maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

The purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix.     

Nonlinear multivariate time–space threshold vector error correction model for short term traffic state prediction

We propose Time–Space Threshold Vector Error Correction (TS-TVEC) model for short term (hourly) traffic state prediction. The theory and method of cointegration with error correction mechanism is employed in the general design of the new statistical model TS-TVEC. An inherent connection between mathematical form of error correction model and traffic flow theory is revealed through the transformation of the well-known Fundamental Traffic Diagrams. A threshold regime switching framework is implemented to overcome any unknown structural changes in traffic time series. Spatial cross correlated information is incorporated with a piecewise linear vector error correction model. A Neural Network model is also constructed in parallel to comparatively test the effectiveness and robustness of the new statistical model. Our empirical study shows that the TS-TVEC model is an effective tool that is capable of modeling the complexity of stochastic traffic flow processes and potentially applicable to real time traffic state prediction.     

Classification modeling approach for vehicle dynamics model‐integrated traffic simulation assessing surrogate safety

To assess safety impacts of untried traffic control strategies, an earlier study developed a vehicle dynamics model‐integrated (i.e., VISSIM‐CarSim‐SSAM) simulation approach and evaluated its performance using surrogate safety measures. Although the study found that the integrated simulation approach was a superior alternative to existing approaches in assessing surrogate safety, the computation time required for the implementation of the integrated simulation approach prevents it from using it in practice. Thus, this study developed and evaluated two types of models that could replace the integrated simulation approach with much faster computation time, feasible for real‐time implementation. The two models are as follows: (i) a statistical model (i.e., logit model) and (ii) a nonparametric approach (i.e., artificial neural network). The logit model and the neural network model were developed and trained on the basis of three simulation data sets obtained from the VISSIM‐CarSim‐SSAM integrated simulation approach, and their performances were compared in terms of the prediction accuracy. These two models were evaluated using six new simulation data sets. The results indicated that the neural network approach showing 97.7% prediction accuracy was superior to the logit model with 85.9% prediction accuracy. In addition, the correlation analysis results between the traffic conflicts obtained from the neural network approach and the actual traffic crash data collected in the field indicated a statistically significant relationship (i.e., 0.68 correlation coefficient) between them. This correlation strength is higher than that of the VISSIM only (i.e., the state of practice) simulation approach. The study results indicated that the neural network approach is not only a time‐efficient way to implementing the VISSIM‐CarSim‐SSAM integrated simulation but also a superior alternative in assessing surrogate safety. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.