Creating complex congestion patterns via multi-objective optimal freeway traffic control with application to cyber-security

This article presents a study on freeway networks instrumented with coordinated ramp metering and the ability of such control systems to produce arbitrarily complex congestion patterns within the dynamical limits of the traffic system. The developed method is used to evaluate the potential for an adversary with access to control infrastructure to enact high-level attacks on the underlying freeway system. The attacks are executed using a predictive, coordinated ramp metering controller based on finite-horizon optimal control and multi-objective optimization techniques. The efficacy of the control schemes in carrying out the prescribed attacks is determined via simulations of traffic network models based on the cell transmission model with onramps modeled as queue buffers. Freeway attacks with high-level objectives are presented on two illustrative examples: congestion-on-demand, which aims to create precise, user-specified pockets of congestion, and catch-me-if-you-can, which attempts to aid a fleeing vehicle from pursuant vehicles.     

Evaluation of forced flows on freeways with single‐loop detectors

This paper documents the development of a simple method for identifying and/or predicting freeway congestion using single loop detection systems. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to incorporate into most freeway management systems. The Washington State Department of Transportation's Traffic Systems Management Center (TSMC) sponsored the original study. The investigation also led to a recommendation to replace the original TSMC definition of congestion or forced flow conditions with a more reliable indicator. Although, the TSMC has recently implemented a more advanced prediction system based on fuzzy set theory and neural networks to further identify patterns and rules for ramp metering strategies, the findings presented here continue to be constructive to freeway managers looking for quick and easy analyses that rely solely on single‐loop detection systems. The Seattle Area freeway study section used for the original study was the portion of mainline 1–5 northbound starting at the downtown Seattle Station 108 and ending at the Mountlake Terrace Station 193. Several days' worth of volume and lane‐occupancy data were collected for the afternoon time period from 2:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Time intervals of 20 seconds were chosen for each data collection period. Important products of this research include the following:

• simple, and more reliable criterion for the definition of “bottleneck” or forced flow conditions than that originally used by the TSMC.
• simple, and reliable criterion for predicting impending “bottlenecks” or forced flow conditions.
• A proposed variable for improved selection of the appropriate metering rate. (Further analysis of the use of this variable for determining metering rates is recommended for future studies.

The proposed criteria are simple and easy to incorporate into current freeway management computer systems. Further investigation of freeway performance measurement using volume and occupancy data obtained from single‐loop systems is currently being performed.     

A new approach to time-of-day control based on a dynamic freeway traffic model

This paper presents a new approach to time-of-day control. While time-of-day control strategies presented up-to-now are only optimal under steady-state conditions, the control algorithm derived in this paper takes into account the evolution of traffic flow according to the time delay between a volume change at a ramp and its subsequent disturbance at a freeway point downstream. The new control strategy is based on the solution of a linear programming optimization problem and makes freeway volume hold the capacity constraints for the total time of control operation. In order to reduce the computational effort a simplified version of the new algorithm is also discussed. Simulation results obtained by use of two different traffic flow models show that control derived through the new algorithm can avoid congestion and ensure operation with peak performance even if a steady-state condition is never attained.     

A hybrid model predictive control for traffic flow stabilization and pollution reduction of freeways

In this work a control system is developed and analyzed for the suppression of moving jamwaves and the reduction of pollutant concentrations near motorways. The system is based on the second-order macroscopic freeway traffic model METANET, joined by an emission dispersion model, introduced in a previous work of the authors. For the control tasks dedicated controllers are designed, both using the nonlinear model predictive control method. The control objectives require a distinction in the utilized control measures, thus different controllers are designed and used in predefined control modes. The first mode of the controller is responsible for keeping pollutant concentrations below prescribed limits under stable conditions. The second mode of the controller is working in case of a shockwave threat, aiming for traffic stabilization. Between the control modes switching is based on an appropriate rule set that satisfies the stability of the controlled system. The hybrid controller structure is realized by a finite automata. A complex case study is presented for the evaluation of the suggested controller.     

Development and evaluation of a knowledge-based system for traffic congestion management and control

This paper describes a real-time knowledge-based system (KBS) for decision support to Traffic Operation Center personnel in the selection of integrated traffic control plans after the occurrence of non-recurring congestion, on freeway and arterial networks. The uniqueness of the system, called TCM, lies in its ability to cooperate with the operator, by handling different sources of input data and inferred knowledge, and providing an explanation of its reasoning process. A data fusion algorithm for the analysis of congestion allows to represent and interpret different types of data, with various levels of reliability and uncertainty, to provide a clear assessment of traffic conditions. An efficient algorithm for the selection of control plans determines alternative traffic control responses. These are proposed to an operator, along with an explanation of the reasoning process that led to their development and an estimation of their expected effect on traffic. The validation of the system, which is one of only few examples of validation of a KBS in transportation, demonstrates the validity of the approach. The evaluation results, in a simulated environment demonstrate the ability of TCM to reduce congestion, through the formulation of traffic diversion and control schemes.     

Evaluation of congestion trends on chicago expressways

The growth in congestion on Chicago area expressways has had a major effect on almost all aspects of the region's economy, travel behavior and land-use development patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate congestion trends on Chicago's expressways during the last decade (1980 to 1989) by quantifying the magnitude and tendencies of congestion for the various expressways. This study concentrated on an analysis of the minute-miles of congestion (MMC), a measure that provides an averaged section congestion during a given time period and that is continuously collected by the Illinois Department of Transportation for all Chicago-area expressways. The MMC offers a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of the quantity and duration of congestion. In order to compare congestion trends on the area's ten major expressways in the 1980's it was decided to evaluate the yearly Cumulative Distribution Function of congestion. This analysis was conducted for both the inbound and outbound directions and for the A.M. and P.M. daily peak periods. The magnitude of congestion was found to increase considerably with the years from 1980 to 1989. The increase in congestion for “reverse commuting”, trips to the suburbs in the morning peak and from the suburbs in the evening peak, grew more substantially than the increase in the regular “city commute.” The reason for this phenomenon was the rise in job opportunities in the suburbs, resulting partially from increased congestion and reduced accessibility. Additional analysis showed that the duration of the peak period, defined by the time in which congestion exceeded a predetermined threshold level, was generally longer for the “city commuting” than for the “reverse commuting.” Comparison of congestion among seasons, showed that the most congested season was usually the spring (May 1 to June 15). The system analysis showed that the by 2000, the expected system congestion will be more than twice the 1980 system congestion.     

A fuzzy-logic-based system for freeway bottleneck severity diagnosis in a sensor network

It is essential for local traffic jurisdictions to systematically spot freeway bottlenecks and proactively deploy appropriate congestion mitigation strategies. However, diagnostic results may be influenced by unreliable measurements, analysts’ subjective knowledge and day-to-day traffic pattern variations. In order to suitably address these uncertainties and imprecise data, this study proposes a fuzzy-logic-based approach for bottleneck severity diagnosis in urban sensor networks. A dynamic bottleneck identification model is first proposed to identify bottleneck locations, and a fuzzy inference approach is then proposed to systematically diagnose the severities of the identified recurring and non-recurring bottlenecks by incorporating expert knowledge of local traffic conditions. Sample data over a 1-month period on an urban freeway in Northern Virginia was used as a case study for the analysis. The results reveal that the proposed approach can reasonably determine bottleneck severities and critical links, accounting for both spatial and temporal factors in a sensor network.     

Understanding the variability of speed distributions under mixed traffic conditions caused by holiday traffic

Understanding the variability of speed patterns and congestion characteristics of interstate freeway systems caused by holiday traffic is beneficial because appropriate countermeasures for safety improvement and congestion mitigation can be prepared and drivers can avoid traffic congestion and change their holiday travel schedules. This study evaluated the traffic congestion patterns during the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2006 using a Gaussian mixture speed distribution estimated by the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. This mathematical approach showed the potential of improving freeway operational performance evaluation schemes for holiday periods (even non-holiday periods). This study suggested that a Gaussian mixture model using the EM algorithm could be used to properly characterize the severity and the variability of congestion on certain interstate roadway systems. However, this study also pointed out that the fundamental limitations of the mixture model and the statistical significance test about the mixture components should be well understood and need to be further investigated. In addition, because this study investigated the changing patterns of speed distributions with only one interstate freeway system, I-95 northbound, other freeway systems with both directions need to be evaluated so that a more broad and confident analysis on holiday traffic can be achieved.     

Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion

This paper demonstrates how induced travel can be estimated for incorporation into the evaluation process for highway expansion projects, at a sketch planning level of analysis. The approach is useful especially in cases where four-step urban travel models are either unavailable or are unable to forecast the full induced demand effects. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical freeway expansion analysis. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of travel induced by highway expansion increases significantly as a function of initial congestion levels prior to expansion. However, under even extreme scenarios of initial congestion and consequent forecasted induced travel, there is a positive impact with respect to congestion relief.     

Optimization of mainline traffic via an adaptive co-ordinated ramp-metering control model with dynamic OD estimation

Frequently implemented at freeway accesses to streamline traffic, ramp-metering control strategy is often implemented during rush hours in heavily congested areas. This paper presents a novel ramp-metering control model capable of optimizing mainline traffic by providing metering rates for accesses within the control segments. Based on Payne's continuum traffic stream model, a linear dynamic model with a quadratic objective function is constructed for integrated-responsive ramp-metering control. Incorporating on-line origin–destination (OD) estimation of co-ordinated interchanges into the proposed model increases efficiency of the control. In addition, an iterative algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solution. Simulation results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model and its ability to streamline freeway traffic while avoiding traffic congestion.     

Three-phase traffic theory and two-phase models with a fundamental diagram in the light of empirical stylized facts

Despite the availability of large empirical data sets and the long history of traffic modeling, the theory of traffic congestion on freeways is still highly controversial. In this contribution, we compare Kerner’s three-phase traffic theory with the phase diagram approach for traffic models with a fundamental diagram. We discuss the inconsistent use of the term “traffic phase” and show that patterns demanded by three-phase traffic theory can be reproduced with simple two-phase models, if the model parameters are suitably specified and factors characteristic for real traffic flows are considered, such as effects of noise or heterogeneity or the actual freeway design (e.g. combinations of off- and on-ramps). Conversely, we demonstrate that models created to reproduce three-phase traffic theory create similar spatiotemporal traffic states and associated phase diagrams, no matter whether the parameters imply a fundamental diagram in equilibrium or non-unique flow-density relationships. In conclusion, there are different ways of reproducing the empirical stylized facts of spatiotemporal congestion patterns summarized in this contribution, and it appears possible to overcome the controversy by a more precise definition of the scientific terms and a more careful comparison of models and data, considering effects of the measurement process and the right level of detail in the traffic model used.     

Theory of jam-absorption driving

“Can a single car really absorb a traffic jam without making new jams?” In this paper, we focus on this frequently-discussed question, and have succeeded in making a theoretical framework of a driving technique how to absorb a traffic jam by using a minimal microscopic model. Jam-absorption driving comes from Beaty (Beaty, 1998, Beaty, 2013), and it is composed of a sequence of two actions termed the “slow-in” and “fast-out”. The “slow-in” is the action to avoid being captured by a jam and remove it by decelerating and taking a longer headway in advance. The “fast-out” is performed after the “slow-in”, and it is the action to follow the car in front without unnecessary time gaps by accelerating quickly. In our theoretical framework, we have represented the recipe of the actions such as the time–space points and the velocity. Moreover, we have clarified the condition of no secondary jams due to this driving, i.e., the condition that compression and expansion waves caused by this driving meet each other and disappear. Particularly, we have calculated how these waves propagates to the following cars and the point where and when they disappear. Besides, we have analyzed how this point moves in time–space diagrams by varying the timing to start the jam-absorption, and revealed that the pattern of this movement is not constant but changes greatly by the velocity-headway relationships. Furthermore, as a more realistic problem, we have formulated the driving for jam-absorption in two steps of deceleration, which brings rich patterns of collisions among compression and expansion waves.     

Collecting ambient vehicle trajectories from an instrumented probe vehicle: High quality data for microscopic traffic flow studies

This paper presents the methodology and results from a study to extract empirical microscopic vehicular interactions from a probe vehicle instrumented with sensors to monitor the ambient vehicles as it traverses a 28 mi long freeway corridor. The contributions of this paper are two fold: first, the general method and approach to seek a cost-effective balance between automation and manual data reduction that transcends the specific application. Second, the resulting empirical data set is intended to help advance traffic flow theory in general and car following models in particular. Generally the collection of empirical microscopic vehicle interaction data is either too computationally intensive or labor intensive. Historically automatic data extraction does not provide the precision necessary to advance traffic flow theory, while the labor demands of manual data extraction have limited past efforts to small scales. Key to the present study is striking the right balance between automatic and manual processing. Recognizing that any empirical microscopic data for traffic flow theory has to be manually validated anyway, the present study uses a “pretty good” automated processing algorithm followed by detailed manual cleanup using an efficient user interface to rapidly process the data. The study spans roughly two hours of data collected on a freeway during the afternoon peak of a typical weekday that includes recurring congestion. The corresponding data are being made available to the research community to help advance traffic flow theory in general and car following models in particular.     

A multi-agent architecture for cooperative inter-jurisdictional traffic congestion management

This paper describes , an innovative multi-agent architecture for the provision of real-time decision support to Traffic Operations Center personnel for coordinated, inter-jurisdictional traffic congestion management on freeway and surface street (arterial) networks. is composed of two interacting knowledge-based systems that perform cooperative reasoning and resolve conflicts, for the analysis of non-recurring congestion and the on-line formulation of integrated control plans. The two agents support incident management operations for a freeway and an adjacent arterial subnetwork and interact with human operators, determining control recommendations in response to the occurrence of incidents. The multi-decision maker approach adopted by reflects the spatial and administrative organization of traffic management agencies in US cities, providing a cooperative solution that exploits the agencies’ willingness to cooperate and unify their problem-solving capabilities, yet preserves the different levels of authority and the inherent distribution of data and expertise. The interaction between the agents is based on the functionally accurate, cooperative paradigm, a distributed problem solving approach aimed at producing consistent solutions without requiring the agents to have shared access to all globally available information. The cornerstone of this approach is the assumption that effective solutions can be efficiently obtained even when complete and up-to-date information is not directly available to the agents, thus reducing the need for complex data communication networks and synchronization time delays. The simulation-based evaluation of the system performance validates this assumption. The paper focuses on the distributed architecture of the agents and on their communication and decision making characteristics.     

Practical modelling of trip re-scheduling under congested conditions

There is plenty of evidence that drivers may make small changes in their time of travel to take advantage of lower levels of congestion. However, progress in the practical modelling of such “micro” re-scheduling within peak period traffic remains slow. While there exist research papers describing theoretical solutions, techniques for practical use are not generally available. Most commonly used assignment programs are temporally aggregate, while packages which do allow some “dynamic assignment” typically assume a fixed demand profile.The aim of the paper is to present a more heuristic method which could at least be used on an interim basis. The assumption is that the demand profile can be segmented into a number of mutually exclusive “windows” in relation to the “preferred arrival time”, while on the assignment side, independently defined sequential “timeslices” are used in order to respect some of the dynamic processes relating to the build-up of queues. The demand process, whereby some drivers shift away from their preferred window, leads to an iterative procedure with the aim of achieving reasonable convergence.Using the well-known scheduling theory developed by Vickrey, Small, and Arnott, de Palma & Lindsey, the basic approach can be described, extending from the simple “bottleneck”, to which the theory was originally applied, to a general network. So far, insufficient research funds have been made available to test the approach properly. It is hoped that by bringing the ideas into the public domain, further research into this area may be stimulated.     

Two-class freeway traffic regulation to reduce congestion and emissions via nonlinear optimal control

The objective of this paper is the regulation of freeway traffic by means of optimal control techniques. A first innovative aspect of the proposed approach is the adopted objective function in which, besides the reduction of traffic congestion (which is typically considered in traffic control schemes), the minimization of traffic emissions is also included. Moreover, a multi-class framework is defined in which two classes of vehicles (cars and trucks) are explicitly modelled, and specific control actions for each vehicle class are sought. This results in the formulation of a multi-objective optimal control problem which is described in the paper and for which a specific solution algorithm is developed and used. The algorithm exploits a specific version of the feasible direction algorithm whose effectiveness is demonstrated in the paper by means of simulation results.     

Stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM): A stochastic dynamic traffic model for traffic state surveillance and assignment

The paper proposes a first-order macroscopic stochastic dynamic traffic model, namely the stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM), to model traffic flow density on freeway segments with stochastic demand and supply. The SCTM consists of five operational modes corresponding to different congestion levels of the freeway segment. Each mode is formulated as a discrete time bilinear stochastic system. A set of probabilistic conditions is proposed to characterize the probability of occurrence of each mode. The overall effect of the five modes is estimated by the joint traffic density which is derived from the theory of finite mixture distribution. The SCTM captures not only the mean and standard deviation (SD) of density of the traffic flow, but also the propagation of SD over time and space. The SCTM is tested with a hypothetical freeway corridor simulation and an empirical study. The simulation results are compared against the means and SDs of traffic densities obtained from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the modified cell transmission model (MCTM). An approximately two-miles freeway segment of Interstate 210 West (I-210W) in Los Ageles, Southern California, is chosen for the empirical study. Traffic data is obtained from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS). The stochastic parameters of the SCTM are calibrated against the flow-density empirical data of I-210W. Both the SCTM and the MCS of the MCTM are tested. A discussion of the computational efficiency and the accuracy issues of the two methods is provided based on the empirical results. Both the numerical simulation results and the empirical results confirm that the SCTM is capable of accurately estimating the means and SDs of the freeway densities as compared to the MCS.     

Impacts of freeway accidents on CO2 emissions: A case study for Orange County,California, US

Traffic congestion caused by traffic accidents contributes to CO₂ emissions. Generally, more efficient and prompt responses to accidents lead to reduced traffic congestion as well as CO₂ emissions. Here we assess the CO₂ emissions impacts of freeway accidents, applies an existing model to capture spatio-temporally congested regions caused by freeway accidents. A case study for the assessment of CO₂ emissions impacts of based on the results from the model is presented.     

Feedback control strategy of a new car-following model based on reducing traffic accident rates

ABSTRACT

To reduce the traffic accident death rate effectively and alleviate the traffic congestion phenomenon, this study proposes a new type of car-following model under the influence of drivers’ time-varying delay response time. Based on Lyapunov function theory, this paper reduces the traffic accident rate problem to the stability issues of the new model. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and using the linear matrix inequality method, the stability problem of the new car-following model is studied. The model, under the action of the controller, can effectively restrain traffic congestion. Using the traffic accident rate model proposed by Solomon, compared with the car-following model without the controller, the model under the controller shows a stronger convergence. This also means that the traffic congestion phenomenon has been effectively suppressed while greatly reducing the mortality rate of traffic accidents.