Asian product trade

The 'Asian 'flu' has caused uncertainty about the future of product shipping in Asia. Product shipping is a difficult business, subject to the vagaries of such factors as local and regional supply/demand imbalances, refinery inputs, outputs and utilization rates, storage and terminalling considerations, product quality differences, price differentials, seasonal variations, and port traffic. This paper covers the Asia-Pacific product demand and trade by type in four major submarkets: Australasia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia. Forecasts are created of product demand by type and country, assessing likely additions to refinery capacities, and conducting computer-modelling exercises that simulate refinery output and product blending. The difference between product output and product demand in any given country is assumed to equate to trade. The analysis suggests that Asian economies will recover during the 2000-2005 period, and that there will be an increase in the petroleum product trade.     

The growth and patterns of international trade

Over the last 40 years, there has been an unprecedented growth in trade amongst countries, and the growth in trade shows no sign of slowing down. The increases in trade have put tremendous pressure on the maritime and port industries, and these industries have responded with innovations, investment, and greater productivity. International trade and maritime trade are synonyms, and an understanding of the determinants of international trade is central to understanding maritime trade. In this paper, we provide a review of the international trade literature with a focus on the determinants of trade and the evolution of trade modeling. We then present a broad overview of the extent and growth of trade in the context of primary determinants. The basic results are: (1) Trade is growing at a phenomenal rate; (2) Trade is dominated by relatively few countries who tend to remain dominant; (3) While trade of all products is growing, there are large differences in the growth rates, but yet, there is stability in the relative sizes of product markets; and (4) Over the last 40 years, trade has changed from major flows between the US and Europe to major flows between Asia and the US.     

Evaluation of foreign trade transport accessibility for Mainland China

The foreign trade transport accessibility (FTTA) of Mainland China to overseas regions is studied in terms of the shipping connectivity and achievable market scales. First, the concept of FTTA is defined. Second, the path choice behavior of shippers is analyzed, and a method to measure FTTA is proposed. Last, with 357 cities in Mainland China as the origins and eight overseas regions as the destinations, the FTTAs from origins to destinations are evaluated. The study is helpful to acquaint decision-makers with the FTTA’s spatial distribution and to offer information by which China can expand its export-oriented industry and optimize its port and shipping industries.     

我国近代贸易战略的转变

对外贸易是我国经济中的重要组成部分,对我国改革开放以来经济的发展起了极大的推动作用。本文考察近现代以来我国贸易总政策的转变即对外开放以来对外贸易战略的转变。     

The impact of port and trade security initiatives on maritime supply-chain management

The fundamental objective of the Container Security Initiative (CSI) is to engage both so-called 'mega-ports' (ports sending the highest volume of ocean going container traffic into the US) and the national governments where these ports are located in a way that will facilitate the pre-screening of outbound containers destined to the US. The emerging issue of security as a key factor in global supply chains can be perceived as inconsistent with the objective of facilitating international trade (Dulbecco and Laporte, 2003). However, this perception does not stand up to analysis. Security is an evident part of the mainstream supply-chain paradigm while security can also become a driver for trade facilitation. The purpose of this paper is therefore to discuss the impact of the US CSI on maritime supply chains. The first section will mostly be related to the issue of security and supply chains while the second section will investigate CSI and its impact while exploring some of the financing implications of the security initiative.     

洋山保税港区可持续发展功能探索及实践

经过4年的运作,洋山保税港区成功解决了上海国际航运中心发展缺乏深水港码头的瓶颈;同时,作为长三角地区跨省市合作的全国首家保税港区,"三区合一"的特殊监管区政策更为中国扩大对外开放、探索发展国际转口贸易、航运物流现代服务与国际惯例接轨提供了重要经验。在三港三区联动发展的带动下,深入拓展功能,积极推动相关航运金融政策的落地,提高区域发展水平和辐射能级将是今后发展的重点。     

Highly disaggregrated models of seaborne trade. An empirical model for bilateral dry-cargo trade flows in the World economy

The aim of this paper is to estimate an empirical model of bilateral dry-cargo seaborne import flows in the international economy. Seaborne trade elasticities are estimated for the first time, utilizing the Constant Ratio of Elasticities of Substitution Homogeneous/Homothetic (CRESH) function, a function very rarely used in the past. Highly disaggregated data on volumes of seaborne trade, published by the UN, distinguish between five types of cargo according to the type of ship used for its transportation, and 30 trading regions according to the major sea-lancs used by ships internationally. Multistage budgeting is employed to make the problem of estimation tractable. An empirical model for dry-bulk cargo is estimated based on the CRESH function. Estimation of bilateral export price elasticities enables comparison of the degree of competition in each import market over export regions, and amongst import markets themselves. Risk-averse ship owners may utilize such a comparison to operate in world shiplanes with low degree of competition.     

International trade in marine species: Is CITES a useful control mechanism?

Abstract

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was created to prevent species becoming threatened through international trade. It generally prohibits international commercial trade in seriously threatened species but permits trade in a regulated manner in species vulnerable to exploitation but not yet at risk of extinction. CITES covers comparatively few marine taxa, reflecting the fact that most marine species have much greater ranges and fecundity than terrestrial species and so are more resilient to exploitation. Exceptions are to be found in the higher vertebrates. Several marine mammals may have benefited from CITES controls, although their popular appeal, commercial importance, and extreme vulnerability have meant that other treaties and conservation activities have been adopted to control their exploitation. Marine turtles Cheloniidae and the estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) certainly have benefited from CITES controls. Many commercially important fishes and invertebrates are covered by international and regional fishery agreements; a few, with life histories making them particularly vulnerable to exploitation, are subject to CITES controls. The structure of CITES limits its utility as a conservation tool for marine species, but where other mechanisms fail or are absent, it plays a useful role, and it is particularly valuable as an international trade monitoring mechanism.     

Impacts of trade liberalization on Chinese economy with Belt and Road initiative

China has been continuously implementing the open-door policy for past 15 years ever since it joined the World Trade Organization, which escalated international trade and demand for shipping. Compared with the other major importing countries in the world, China’s importing tariff is relatively low. Under the Belt and Road initiatives, more Free Trade Agreements to be concluded and more Free Trade Zones to be established, it is expected that the effective import tariff rate may continue to decrease in the future. This study analyses the impact of further reduction in Chinese import tariff rate on major economic indicators using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and based on the Chinese macro-economic data of 2012. The model results show that, with a balanced international payment, such a reduction can increase GDP, resident consumption, both imports and exports, and reduce GDP price, trade surplus, and government revenue. The results ease the concern that further import tariff reduction may harm the domestic production. Rather, it points out that there are still rooms to improve national economy and increase the consumer utility by trade liberation.     

基于事故树的系统故障诊断和修复

采用事故树分析法对故障系统进行分析,在事故树逻辑简化的基础上分别构建系统的故障诊断模型和故障维修模型;在事故树定性和定量分析的基础上,对系统事故树模型中的基本原因事件的故障检测时效比和维修时效比进行分析;制定系统的故障诊断和修复流程,快速、及时地对故障系统做出响应,保证舰船生命力。结果表明:基于事故树的系统故障分析法为系统的故障检测和抢修决策提供依据,对大型复杂系统的生命力研究具有一定的适用性。     

从历史维度分析海运贸易全球化对世界港口城市体系的影响

15世纪源于欧洲重商主义的地理大发现与殖民地运动,开启了海运贸易全球化的时代,对近代世界城市与港口的空间结构形成与演变产生了深刻的影响,其效应仍在被时间不断放大。从历史维度对各洲大陆在殖民地运动与海运贸易全球化驱动下港口—城市体系的发展特征进行宏观比较分析,为理解当今世界港口与城市发展格局提供一个全球视野的概念框架。     

基于FTA方法降低涡轮增压器失效风险

故障树分析是一种有效的系统可靠性分析方法,已经广泛应用在机械行业的各个领域。通过故障树分析可以找出涡轮增压器过载的失效原因。对该机型的技术改进证实,所采取的弥补措施能有效降低涡轮增压器的失效风险。     

Maritime transport and international seaborne trade

Drawing upon over four decades of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Review of Maritime Transport, this article considers selected key trends that have shaped the maritime transportation of today. Over the review period, a fundamental shift in the geography of trade has been observed, with developing countries increasingly driving growth in the world economy and seaborne trade, and becoming important players in global value chains. The specialization of countries, including in developing regions, in the provision of the maritime goods and services for which they have established a comparative advantage constitutes another major trend, a move away from previous patterns where developing countries were typically users of maritime transport services. The article also observes that bilateral freight sharing agreements between countries which were prominent in 1970s have largely lost their practical relevance, leading to a further liberalization of markets and resulting in overall relatively lower freight costs.     

提高干部素质推进工会工作

党的十六届六中全会提出建设社会主义和谐社会的目标。工会工作承担着协调劳动关系、维护职工合法权益和稳定社会的重要职责。为进一步推进工会工作,工会干部应当努力提高自身的思想政治素质、道德品质素质、专业知识素质和创新能力素质。     

Structural relationships among shipper’s perception,value, and choice intention of Korea–China train ferry service

ABSTRACT

The logistics environment between China and Korea has been changing rapidly in line with the ‘Go West’ policy of international trade and logistics area. The policy includes the BRI, Western Development Strategy, and Korea–China FTA. Against this background, the Korea–China train ferry (KCTF) is being newly illuminated as an alternative mode to cope with the logistics environment between Korea and China. One of the key success factors of the KCTF depends on, among others, shippers’ perception, which will affect the choice and the successful operation of the KCTF. From this perspective, this paper develops seven hypotheses based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). We test these hypotheses using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore the structural relationship between shippers’ behavioral beliefs influencing the perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and intention to choose the KCTF. The test results confirm that among the behavioral beliefs, transport accessibility in association with an efficient network of inland roads and railway networks is an important prerequisite. In addition, we verified a high statistical significance in the structural relationships among perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and the intention to choose the KCTF.     

事故树分析法在船舶运输安全工作中的应用

事故树分析法是可靠性工程的基本方法之一。本文对事故树分析法在船舶运输安全工作中的应用进行探讨和论述。通过事故树分析,不仅可定性地分析引起恶性海事的诸因素的内在联系,而且能定量地预测海事发生的可能性,并以此为依据,研究对策,采取有效的预防措施,消除隐患,确保船舶运输安全。     

核电、风电设备的开发及其外贸机遇

通过对当今社会能源需求的日益增长,化石燃料资源的日渐枯竭和环境污染日益加剧的现实分析,提出了发展核电和风电是保障能源供给的重要途径,特别指出我国具备了研发、制造核电、风电相关设备的各种条件,而且这些设备具有良好的外贸前景．     

Mature hub ports in the free trade environment,the way forward from a global supply chain perspective: an Asian case

Asia-Pacific countries with divergent economic and political backgrounds developed a regime of bilateral free trade agreements in response to globalization. Challenged by the 1997 and 2008 financial crises, this Asian trade regime has remained intact, although the most powerful stakeholders have changed positions, as indicated by the strong emergence of China in the past decade. Efforts of key trading partners to tackle non-tariff barriers (e.g., rule of origin and customs formalities) in the region have yielded little progress thus far. Instead of aiming at a regional consensus on non-tariff barriers by all member states, a global supply chain (GSC) approach is recommended. Mature hub ports at strategic locations with advanced institutional measures could set up international trade facilitation centers co-locating multinational customs formalities. This GSC approach may also be adopted to construct a GSC hub development model that explains the transformation of hub ports.     

Liner shipping between East and West Europe: competitive developments in the Poland-United Kingdom trade

This paper provides an analysis of the development of the liner route between the UK and Poland and the activities of the two main operators—EuroAfrica of Poland and United Baltic Corporation of London. The most significant factors driving the development of this trade are analysed using a combination of an industrial survey and government statistics for the route, before going on to examine the threat to the trade presented by the growth of the trucking mode.