油船市场现状与策略

分析了油船市场的现状,明确指出国有油船运输缺口很大。认为目前我国已具备了发展油船船队的实力,提出了应采取的竞争策略,以适应国家经济建设和参与国际化市场竞争的需要。     

Incorporated probability that a fleet meets a given permissible value for the hull girder section modulus loss

The paper presents a study on the incorporated probability that a tanker fleet meets a given permissible value of hull girder strength loss. The analysis was based on a database of hull girder section modulus (HGSM) for as-gauged girth belts of tankers. It was found that its mean value is below 5% over the entire life span of the analyzed tanker fleet. The Weibull probabilistic distribution was found to best represent the time-varying HGSM loss. A method was developed for calculating the incorporated safety of a fleet. As an example, the IMO requirement for a maximum HGSM reduction of 10% relative to its required value was analyzed, accounting for time-variant HGSM loss and including a probabilistic model for coating longevity. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessary those of ABS.     

中国资源巨头自建船队

中国石油天然气股份有限公司（中石油）将斥资两亿元人民币打造两艘超大型油轮。这宗交易已经酝酿多时,标志着中石油将建立自己的油轮船队。中石油是中国最大的石油生产商。早在2008年,该公司就提出了筹建超大型油轮船队的想法,金融危机的到来迫使中石油推迟实施造船计划。     

“国油国运”的围城与突围

站在国家整体利益上，他们各自的坚持宛如“医得眼前疮．剜却心头肉”。 2012年．中国已成为世界第二大石油消费国和进口国，拥有和控制油轮船队规模位居世界第三。然而．与之形成鲜明对比的是，巨大石油进口量与中国油轮船队运输比例的失衡。那么，这种失衡背后到底是何因素在作怪？     

进口原油运输船型经济性分析

石油是世界海上运量最大的货种之一,约占海上总运输量的三分之一。加入WTO后,中国石油海上运输量,特别是进口原油运输量将大幅度地增加。针对这一现实情况,本文对世界原油运输船队的技术经济作了概括性分析,对原油进口航线作了介绍。建立了单船运输经济性测算模型。基于实船经济指标测算结果,以必要运费率为主,通过比较选出了优良船型。并定量测算出不同类型船舶在同一航线上营运的必要运费率及其差异。研究结果指出,随着进口原油量的大幅度增加,中国应大力发展VLCC和Suezmax船队,重点建设大型深水油轮码头。     

Discipline in British merchant ships

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of ‘desired proportions’ of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

A model for the evaluation of some shipping company decisions

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of 'desired proportions' of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

近年世界油运市场的发展与趋势

总结了近年世界石油海运市场的需求、供给、发到船量与运价的发展趋势,对中国油运船队的发展提出一些看法。     

川江及三峡库区运输船舶标准船型主尺度系列制定

本文阐述了川江及三峡库区运输船舶标准船型主尺度系列制定的原则和方法,分别对川江及三峡库区干散货船、化学品船、油船、驳船(队)、集装箱船、汽车滚装船和客船的主尺度系列作了说明。     

The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network

ABSTRACT

Straits and canals have always served as key nodes in shipping networks. The blockage of a strait or canal will lead to ship deviations and increased transportation costs. To measure this impact on the Chinese fleet, our study develops a mathematical model that is based on a programming formulation. Each strait or canal is assumed to be blocked in turn, and the increased transportation costs for the Chinese fleet in different scenarios are calculated and compared using the proposed programming formulation in order to measure the impact of the blocked strait or canal on the Chinese fleet. Larger increases in transportation costs have greater impacts on the fleet. The results show that a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would have the greatest impact of all straits and canals; it would cause the Chinese fleet to lose a portion of its import and export market, and such a blockage cannot be addressed through ship deviations. Based upon increased transportation costs, the four straits or canals that would have the greatest impact if blocked are the Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Sunda Strait and the English Channel.     

Supply and demand of new oil tankers

This paper examines the world-wide supply and demand for new oil tankers. A simultaneous supply and demand model is developed and estimated using two-stage least squares techniques and empirical data from 1972 to 1983. The relationships between tanker newbuilding orders and prices, and other relevant market factors are analysed. Major factors affecting the tanker new building market are identified. The results indicate that: oil price and second-hand tanker price are predominant factors influencing future newbuilding demand; a moderate decrease in laid-up tonnage would not induce a significant increase in newbuilding orders; shipbuilding capacity is a more influential factor for the short-run supply of new tankers than shipbuilding cost. Technological change has also played an important role in the market.     

Recent aspects of the EU maritime transport policy

Since the 1980s the EU merchant fleet has suffered a dramatic decline mainly due to sharp competition from the Far East and developing countries and the operation of foreign registers ('flags of convenience'). At present the EU aims to complete the single market in shipping and improve the competitive ability of a viable European-flag fleet. It has therefore developed a policy for a European register (EUROS) to run parallel to national registers. This paper argues that the EU policy would prove to be ineffective unless it can differentiate between kinds of shipping.     

典型补给油船抗冲击性能研究

基于通用仿真软件,对某油船进行了远场水下爆炸的动响应分析。研究了药包沿船长方向分布、沿水深分布和不同攻角对船体结构的影响。可以看出,中远场水下爆炸对油船的冲击响应,主要表现为总体响应,局部效应并不明显;爆距对冲击响应有很大的影响,而在远场爆炸时攻角对其影响不明显,随着爆距的增加,船体结构响应逐渐减小;武器的毁伤效应对船体外板影响最为显著,随着能量在船体内的传播,到主甲板时迅速衰减。通过进行计算分析得出了一些结论,为油船的设计及建造提供参考。     

郑和船队下西洋航线及其相关的季风航海问题

郑和船队的海上航行活动,与低纬度地区的季风变化有着密切联系,具体表现为:1)郑和船队下西洋的出发港选择在福建长乐,这里属于亚热带季风的稳定影响地区;2)郑和下西洋船队,往返时间一般为一年半,这个特点主要是由船队选择的特定航线和航行中需要利用的不同季风的转向时间决定的;3)郑和船队航程中的候风点有“斯鲁马益”、“苏门答剌”;4)分地点有“苏门答剌”、“古里”;5)主船队与各分支船队的合地点在“满剌加”。郑和船队在选择航线,确定候风点、分点、合点时,充分考虑了低纬度地区季风的变化特点,反映出当时中国海员深谙低纬度季风变化规律,充分利用其特点进行远洋航海的高超水平。     

标准化船队浅水槽运原理简述及模型试验研究

为了寻求一种用水量小、运输量大,节能效果显著、还可在干旱或非流域地区运行的浅水槽运方式,提出建设专用水槽,采用岸边（链轮传动或架空钢索）牵引方式在水槽中拖航标准化船队,并用计算机调控船队进出＂港口＂的浅水槽运模式,阐述水槽中浅水行船的基本原理。制作金属材料的模型船队,在水槽中进行模型试验,从原理上验证该槽运模式的可行性。     

油船主船体隔舱划分的神经网络专家系统

本文在总结专家系统（ＥＳ）发展与现状的基础上，描述了油船舱划划分的神经网络专家系统（ＴＡＧＮＥＳ）的基本原理与结构，以及基于 ＴＡＧＮＥＳ的知识表示，获取与推理，提出了ＴＡＧＮＥＳ与其它领域神经网络专家系统的组合，系统地阐述了ＴＡＧＮＥＳ的理论体系，同时给出３８０００吨油船分舱仿真设计的部分算例，说明了应用神经网络专家系统这一新理论来进行油船分舱智能设计的有效性和实用性。     

Casualty analysis of large tankers

This article presents detailed results of a comprehensive analysis of recorded accidents of large oil tankers (deadweight greater than 80 000 tonnes) occurring between 1978 and 2003. The analysis encompasses a thorough review of available raw accident data and their postprocessing in a way to produce appropriate statistics useful for the implementation of risk-based assessment methodologies. The processing of the captured data led to the identification of significant qualitative historical trends of tanker accidents and of quantitative characteristics of large tanker accidents, such as overall accident rates per ship-year. Data were also analyzed for all major accident categories separately, taking into account tanker ship size/type, the degree of accident severity, and the oil spill tonne rates per ship-year; this led to the identification of heavily polluted worldwide geographical areas as a result of large tanker accidents.     

油船主尺度确定

1973年国际防止船舶造成污染公约的1978年议定书规定,载重量二万吨以上的原油船和载重量三万吨以上的成品油船都要设置专用压载水舱,并对货油区范围内的专用压载水舱和非油处所要求满足保护面积指标。作者就贯彻这一新规定,对载重量三万至十万吨级原油船主尺度有关问题作了研究。本文简要分析了新规定引起油船主尺度、结构重量与容量、货舱结构划分形式等方面的变化,引述了作者建立的有关确定主尺度的主要数学模型,并给出了以多目标分层序列最优化方法确定油船主尺度的方法和过程。文后附按此方法对六万五千吨载重量原油船主尺度确定的计算结果。     

Strategic fleet size planning for maritime refrigerated containers

In the present economic climate, it is often the case that profits can only be improved, or for that matter maintained, by improving efficiency and cutting costs. This is particularly notorious in the shipping business, where it has been seen that the competition is getting tougher among carriers, thus alliances and partnerships are resulting for cost effective services in recent years. In this scenario, effective planning methods are important not only for strategic but also operating tasks, covering their entire transportation systems. Container fleet size planning is an important part of the strategy of any shipping line. This paper addresses the problem of fleet size planning for refrigerated containers, to achieve cost-effective services in a competitive maritime shipping market. An analytical model is first discussed to determine the optimal size of an own dry container fleet. Then, this is extended for an own refrigerated container fleet, which is the case when an extremely unbalanced trade represents one of the major investment decisions to be taken by liner operators. Next, a simulation model is developed for fleet sizing in a more practical situation and, by using this, various scenarios are analysed to determine the most convenient composition of refrigerated fleet between own and leased containers for the transpacific cargo trade.     

基于遗传算法的编队条件下舰船修理周期结构优化

舰船的部署和修理活动在全寿命期内是按其修理周期结构进行,而编队的使用则需要编队内各舰艇的修理周期结构的相互配合,通过组合优化各舰艇的修理周期结构,可以使编队拥有更多的部署时间。在舰船修理周期结构的定量描述模型基础上,构建了编队的修理调度模型,并采用遗传算法对编队的部署能力进行了优化分析。实例分析结果表明:优化后编队的部署时间可达到近110个月,相对于未优化前提高了50个月。