中国的北极航线机会和威胁分析

北极问题的焦点是北极航线权益的竞争.北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期和随之而来的巨大利益而变得愈来愈重要.在分析北极航线问题的重要性的基础上,分析了中国开辟北极航线的机会和威胁.机会主要表现在北极航线的开辟能够降低我国企业的物流成本、北极航线具有巨大旅游价值、亚洲的高纬度港口将成为新的国际航运中心等方面;威胁主要表现在北极航线的价值属于资源拥有者、我国企业面对的竞争将更加激烈、中国的南北方经济将会受到不同影响等方面.进而提出了中国应采取的国家战略,并从中国航运企业的角度提出应对策略.     

The port and maritime industries in the post-2008 world: Challenges and opportunities

This article introduces the theme of this issue - the port and maritime industries in the post-2008 world - including its background and significance. A brief introduction on the contents of this issue is also given.     

CEPA:物流业的机遇

The Chinese mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) became effective from zero hour Thursday, January 1,2004, with the support of the central government and joint efforts of the industry and commerce circles on both sides.     

驶向北极

曾几何时,跨越北冰洋,开辟北极航线,缩短东西方距离,是无数航海蒙的梦想。然而由于北极海区海冰阻隔严重,16世纪到19世纪,数以百计的航海家为探索这条航道付出了生命,直到19世纪中叶,航海家才分段走通了这条航线。近30年冰融化的速度加快。     

CZM in California: Successes and Challenges Ahead

California has a forty-year history of successful coastal zone management. The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the California Coastal Commission, and the State Coastal Conservancy have protected and made accessible hundreds of miles of shoreline. While each agency has played a critical role, this article focuses on the Coastal Commission. Implementing the California Coastal Act, the Coastal Commission has partnered with local government, other agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the public to concentrate new development in already developed areas, and much of the rural coastal zone looks as it did in 1972. The Commission has protected and expanded public shoreline access through its regulatory actions. Using strong ecological science the Commission has protected a wide variety of sensitive habitats and wetlands. And under the authority of the Coastal Zone Management Act, the Commission has reviewed thousands of federal projects to assure that they are consistent with the Coastal Act. Challenges continue, though, including population growth, sea-level rise, and inadequate funding to update local coastal land use plans to address new issues, such as climate change adaptation. New investment is needed at the national, state, and local level to continue the success of the California program.     

近海安全:光环下的挑战

Risk behind prosperity Risk threatens the safety of offshore oil-gas operation at all times.Mr.Zhou Bin,Deputy Director of the No.1 Department of National Administration of Work Safety(offshore exploration of oil and gas safety officejintroduced that offshore oil operations are high-risk specialized operations with bad environment,limited space and hightechnical content.The density of installations,equipment and facilities is high,and there are various kinds of dangers and dangerous factors in the operating places where large amounts of inflammable and explosive materials are stored:The natural disasters like typhoon,tropical cyclone,storm surge,tsunami,earthquake and sea ice are also seriously threatening the safety of offshore oil operation.In particular,where the offshore oil operation is far away from land,it would be difficult for workers to escape and for rescue when accidents happen.     

自动化:中小港口面临的挑战

这是作者 2 0 0 1年在香港举行的TOC亚洲会议上所作的关于集装箱港口发展自动化的报告 ,重点回答了中小集装箱码头要不要发展自动化以及如何实现自动化的问题 ,提出了发展中小集装箱码头自动化的思路和新的方案 ,并对采用自动化技术后所带来的投资效益进行了较深入的分析和评价     

北极航线探讨

随着全球气温的不断升高,人类将关注的目光集中到北极。结合大量资料对北极航线的范围、主要探险史、航道现状等方面作出初步分析,探讨东北航道与北方海航道的区别,预测北极航线的发展前景。     

国内拆船业复苏 机遇和挑战并存

淘汰、拆解老旧船舶是当前面对金融危机和今后一段时间内抑制航运、造船市场继续疲软最直接、最有效的措施之一。2009年,航运企业拆船自救促进了拆船业的发展。     

Analyzing aviation safety: Problems,challenges, opportunities

This paper reviews the economic literature relating to aviation safety; analyzes the safety record of commercial passenger aviation in the United States and abroad; examines aviation security as a growing dimension of aviation safety; and identifies emerging issues in airline safety and challenges for aviation safety research. Commercial airline safety has improved dramatically since the industry's birth over a century ago. Fatal accident rates for large scheduled jet airlines have fallen to the level where (along many dimensions) aviation is now the safest mode of commercial transportation. However, safety performance has not been evenly distributed across all segments of commercial aviation, nor among all countries and regions of the world. The finding that developing countries have much poorer safety records has been a persistent conclusion in aviation safety research and continues to be the case. Unfortunately, operations data are not available for many of the airlines that experience fatal accidents, so it is not possible to calculate reliable fatality rates for many segments of the worldwide aviation industry. Without more complete information, it will likely be difficult to make substantial improvements in the safety of these operations. Challenges to improving aviation security include: how much to focus on identifying the terrorists as opposed to identifying the tools they might use; determining how to respond to terrorist threats; and determining the public versus private roles in providing aviation security. The next generation of safety challenges now require development and understanding of new forms of data to improve safety in other segments of commercial aviation, and moving from a reactive, incident-based approach toward a more proactive, predictive and systems-based approach.     

Arctic shipping scenarios and coastal state challenges

The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic states, is currently embarked on a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine activity in the 21^st century — the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). One of the challenges for theAMSA study team has been to identify the major uncertainties that will be central to shaping the future of Arctic marine use in 2020 and 2050. Using scenario planning, AMSA has identified two primary drivers and uncertainties: (A) Resources and trade; and, (B) Governance. Four scenario narratives have been developed with these two, key uncertainties as the framework elements. The main arguments focus on the fact the Arctic has experienced globalization early in the century and that the global maritime industry has already ventured into the Arctic Ocean. Marine access in the Arctic Ocean is also changing in unprecedented ways and the extraordinary transformation Arctic sea ice is undergoing — thinning, extent reduction, and a reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central ocean — has significant implications for longer seasons of navigation. However, the high prices of global commodities such as oil, gas, and hard minerals (for example, copper, nickel and zinc) have generated high levels of demand for Arctic natural resources. The Arctic states are challenged by an overall lack of maritime infrastructure to adequately support current and future levels of Arctic marine operations; ports, communications, environmental monitoring, search & rescue, incident response, aids to navigation, and coastal charting, to name a few, require substantial and timely investment by the coastal states and marine operators. A second challenge is the ongoing development of an integrated system of rules and regulations governing Arctic navigation that will enhance marine safety and ensure marine environmental protection throughout the basin. These challenges will require historic levels of cooperation among the Arctic states and broad engagement with the many, non-Arctic stakeholders and actors within the global maritime industry.     

聚焦北极航道之二:生态环境 没有破坏的发展

<正>各国剑拔弩张,暗战不断,皆为利来。北极冰层加速融化,使之蕴藏的能源挖掘成为可能。这块令世界怦然心动的地方将是地球最后的宝库。到底北极蕴藏着什么让世界各国纷纷将至?     

The Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement: A Regime for Marine Pollution

Climate change is predicted to have particularly challenging impacts throughout the Arctic. For instance, there is a great probability of sea ice melting, leading to increased vessel traffic and oil pollution. Eight major nation-states have vested concerns in the potential opening of Arctic sea routes. They each have pledged to take protective action through the Arctic Council. However, there is still a need to develop an international institution to simultaneously address Arctic marine pollution and protect the needs of these states. This article seeks to design a legally binding regime for oil pollution control in the Arctic. In creating this new regime, we shall utilize several shared design elements of historically effective international regimes and take advantage of the legal innovations of these agreements. Our new regime, entitled the Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement (ASEMA), will take into account both the economic and environmental interests of the parties involved.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

全球化与中国物流企业的机遇

我想套用前一阵美国总统竞选期间见诸媒体最多的句话作为开场白--这句话是:"也许你不关心政治,可政治必须关心你";我把它改成:"也许你不关心物流,可物流必须关心你".为什么?因为物流能够为社会和企业创造的效益实在太大了,物流的重要性在当今社会越来越显突出,作为企业的"第三利润源泉",物流的价值已被越来越多的人所认知.     

俄美加等国北极争夺战及我国的对策

最近以来，由俄罗斯“和平-1”号微型潜艇在北冰洋4261米深处插上俄罗斯国旗而引发的北极争夺战愈演愈烈，加拿大、美国、丹麦等北极周边国家纷纷出动，或派出破冰船赴北极考察，或拟在北极地区建立军事基地，或举行针对北极争端的军事演习，而俄罗斯新一轮北极考察行动也即将开始。北极地区具有重要的战略地位，蕴藏着丰富的资源。我国虽然不是北极圈国家，但北极与南极一样是全人类的共同财富，北极生态关乎人类安危，我国拥有发言权，有权在北极地区从事海洋、矿业开发和商业等活动。作为安理会常任理事国之一，中国有义务维护北极地区的和平稳定，保护北极地区的生态环境不受侵害。[编者按]     

聚焦北极航道之四:携手合作 拯救北极“危机”

<正>船舶溢油污染对北极生态的影响是不可预估的,如果不从环境保护角度妥善管理北极航线,将会对该水域的生态系统造成破坏。北极区域的环境问题更需要各国之间携手合作。因为,北极与全球环境的相互作用密切,北极生态系统的破坏必然会引起全球的环境变化。     

北海深水钻探:挑战与新解决方案

本文概述了在北海深水钻探中遇到的挑战和难点,着重论述了深水钻探技术的发展动态.     

考虑不确定性因素的路径优化(英文)

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper.The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration.Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods,such as Monte Carlo,first order reliability method(FORM) and second order reliability method(SORM),and a 3-D seakeeping code,including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL.The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN.Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.     

CEPA opportunities for logistics industry

The Chinese mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement(CEPA) became effective from zero hour Thursday,January 1,2004,with the support of the central government and joint efforts of the industry and commerce circles on both sides.