双车道等级公路路侧事故预测模型研究

借鉴国内外事故预测模型(也称安全性能函数SPF)研究领域的最新成果,收集了31条双车道公路(总里程约740 km)的事故、交通量和线形数据,采用了泊松、负二项、零堆积泊松和零堆积负二项四种统计概率分布,从路侧事故数、路侧事故死亡人数、路侧事故受伤人数三方面对路侧事故规律进行了研究,通过弹性分析从量化的角度给出了道路几何条件、交通量水平与构成等指标与路侧安全的关系。     

一段典型山区高速公路的事故频次建模研究

山区高速公路是道路交通系统中的一个重大安全隐患。文中通过对一段典型山区高速公路上事故频次建模,获得了对主要风险因素的安全效应评价;通过数据预处理及对其中"过度离散"和"零膨胀"特征的观察与统计检验,建立了基于零膨胀负二项回归技术的事故预测模型;对比传统泊松和负二项模型,该模型具有更好的数据拟合度和鲁棒性。研究结果表明陡坡、弯道、季节、隧道等是影响山区高速公路事故发生的主要因素。同时提出了一种计算"零事故状态"下各因素相对重要性的方法。     

Poisson系列交通事故预测模型特点分析及应用

针对Poisson系列交通事故预测模型中的Poisson、负二项、广义负二项、零堆积Poisson和负二项等多种模型形式及验证方法进行了系统分析和总结,在此基础上结合实际工作经验总结了影响建模结果的重点因素,并进行了实例分析。研究分析表明在实际建模工作中影响建模精度的因素包括模型中变量的选择、模型类型的选择、模型函数形式的确定、因变量类型的选择等。此外,研究人员的建模经验对于最终建立模型的优劣也起很重要的作用。     

基于广义线性模型的高速公路交通事故预测

为分析高速公路交通流状态参数对交通事故的影响,建立了基于广义线性模型的高速公路交通事故预测模型。采用美国8号州际高速公路的实时交通流数据和交通事故数据,建立了实时交通流状态下的高速公路泊松分布预测模型和负二项分布预测模型,并给出了模型变量弹性系数的计算方法,用以确定高速公路交通事故的突出诱导因素。研究结果表明:广义线性模型能够很好的拟合高速公路交通事故,并且负二项分布预测模型的预测精度高于泊松分布预测模型;交通量、占有率、大车比例和速度标准差是高速公路交通事故的显著影响参数,并且与之呈正向关系;交通量是诱导高速公路交通事故发生最突出因素,交通量增长1%,可导致交通事故增长5.8%。     

道路因素对典型较严重道路交通事故严重性的影响分析

基于道路交通事故数据探究事故影响因素对于认识事故的影响因素、提高交通安全水平具有重要意义。利用近年来国内典型较严重道路交通事故数据,应用泊松模型和负二项模型,以区分事故形态的方式建立追尾事故、侧碰事故及撞行人事故的事故死亡率的道路影响因素分析模型。这些模型以三类事故中涉及人员的死亡数为因变量,以一系列道路因素为自变量,将事故涉及人数作为偏移变量。模型的具体形式以过离散系数及赤池信息量准则(AIC)为依据进行选择。结果显示,追尾事故的死亡率与道路等级、路侧防护设施显著相关;侧碰事故则与天气、路表情况、路口路段位置、坡度以及道路结构有关;撞行人事故与路表情况、道路等级、车道数、平曲线半径有关。本文拓展了事故严重性研究的深度,其研究成果对于更好地利用重特大事故的深入调查数据有现实意义,也可为事故分析及道路设计等提供借鉴。      

泊松曲线沉降预测模型的遗传优化及应用

建立了基于实数编码多子种群遗传算法(PPGA)的泊松沉降预测模型,用遗传算法来直接估计泊松模型的参数,编写了模型求解程序,并应用于工程实例进行计算分析。结果表明,预测模型具有良好的适应性,预测的精度较高,具有求解速度快,自动化程度高,通用性强等优点。     

考虑多模式失效概率的长下坡路段重型卡车事故预测模型

为挖掘多模式失效概率与长下坡路段重型卡车事故之间的关系，建立了重型卡车在长下坡路段的多模式失效概率与车辆事故之间的关系模型。并针对重型卡车在长下坡路段可能的失效模式，如侧滑、侧翻、视距不足、制动失效，在此基础上建立了多模式失效概率预测模型；通过蒙特卡罗法模拟并求解单模式失效的概率，宽界限法求解失效系统的多模式失效概率；将多模式失效概率作为解释变量与其他道路因素结合，分别建立泊松模型、随机效应泊松模型、随机参数泊松模型，将多模式失效概率与重型卡车事故建立函数关系；对比3种模型的拟合优度指标，优选出最优事故预测模型，用来挖掘重型卡车事故与多模式失效概率之间的关系。以华盛顿州71段长下坡10年的重型卡车事故数据及道路设计数据进行方法验证。结果表明:随机参数泊松模型与随机效应泊松模型的拟合优度相差较小，二者均优于泊松模型；当考虑多模式失效概率时，平曲线半径、纵坡坡度、超高对重型卡车事故的影响均不显著，即三者的影响被削弱，尤其是平曲线半径和超高，多模式失效概率的弹性(0.239)远大于二者的弹性(平曲线半径和超高的弹性分别仅为0.097和0.002)；重型卡车的事故与多模式失效概率近似线性关系，且截距不为0。即多模式失效概率可用于道路安全分析的表征指标，但与事故概率不等价。      

高填方路基沉降的泊松模型预测方法应用

根据高填方路基沉降的发展规律,建立了泊松曲线预测模型。结合工程实例,证实了泊松曲线能很好地反映高填方路基的沉降变化过程,该模型预测结果与实测沉降值十分接近。     

基于Tobit回归的山区高速公路事故率分析模型

以事故率为因变量来建立事故分析模型或预测模型时,由于事故率是连续型随机变量,传统的泊松分布、负二项分布及零堆积类分布模型已不再适用。加之,当统计年限较短或路段划分较短时,统计样本中的事故率会出现较多"0"值的情况,此时,事故率就属于受限的连续型变量,即受限因变量。通过对比分析可适用于受限因变量建模的Truncated回归和Tobit回归方法,基于Tobit回归建立了山区高速公路事故率分析模型并计算了模型中自变量的边际效应。模型的因变量为路段上的亿车公里事故率,自变量为路段上的年平均日交通量、路段长度及几何线形指标变量。研究结果表明:针对事故率这样一个受限因变量,采用Tobit回归来建立事故率分析模型是适宜的,所建立的事故率分析模型较好地反映了年平均日交通量、路段长度、几何线形条件等对事故率的影响。模型标定结果及边际效应数值表明:纵坡类型对山区高速公路事故率的影响最大;其次是纵坡坡度、路段长度和年平均日交通量;最后是竖曲线曲率。若设竖曲线曲率对事故率的影响程度为1.0,则年平均日交通量、路段长度、纵坡坡度、纵坡类型的影响程度分别为3.1、4.1、9.1、和9.7。     

泊松效应对组合梁斜拉桥混凝土板纵向开裂的影响研究

为了研究泊松效应对组合梁斜拉桥混凝土板内力的影响,探究混凝土板纵向开裂的原因,以国内某主跨480m的组合梁斜拉桥为工程背景,采用有限元法分别建立全桥空间网格模型(未考虑泊松效应)和板壳单元模型(考虑泊松效应),从弹性理论的角度探索了组合梁混凝土板的泊松效应,计算辅助墩墩顶5个节段和主跨四分点5个节段混凝土顶板的横向应力和横向应变。计算结果表明:在辅助墩墩顶及主跨四分点处混凝土板的纵向压应力较大,2种模型的混凝土板横向应力也基本处于压应力状态;按照空间网格模型计算得到混凝土板的横向应变基本为压应变,而按板壳单元模型计算得到的混凝土板的横向多处于拉应变状态,接近于混凝土双向受力状态下的极限拉应变;该组合梁混凝土顶板的泊松效应明显,其产生的横向应变是混凝土板纵向开裂的主要原因。     

Modeling two-way stop-controlled intersection crashes with zero-inflated models on Louisiana rural two-lane highways

Intersection safety continues to be a crucial issue throughout the United States. In 2016, 27% of the 37,461 traffic fatalities on U.S. roadways occurred at or near intersections. Nearly 70% of intersection-related fatalities occurred at unsignalized intersections. At such intersections, vehicles stopping or slowing to turn create speed differentials between vehicles traveling in the same direction. This is particularly problematic on two-lane highways. Research was performed to analyze safety performance for intersections on rural, two-lane roadways, with stop control on the minor roadway. Roadway, traffic, and crash data were collected from 4148 stop-controlled intersections of all 64 Parishes (counties) statewide in Louisiana, for the period of 2013 to 2017. Four count approaches, Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) were used to model the number of intersection crashes for different severity levels. The results indicate that ZIP models provide a better fit than all other models. In addition to traffic volume, larger curve radii of major and minor roads and wider lane widths of major roads led to significantly smaller crash occurrences. However, higher speed limits of major roads led to significantly greater crash occurrences. Four-leg stop-controlled intersections have 35% greater total crashes, 49% greater fatal and injury crashes, and 25% greater property damage only (PDO) crashes, relative to three-leg intersections.     

Crash prediction model for two-lane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana

Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones.     

Accounting for human-related unobserved heterogeneity in the safety performance of connected vehicles: An incorporation of Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial into simulated work zone warning application

Connected Vehicle (CV) notifications enhance drivers' situational awareness, where, depending on traffic flow characteristics, CV drivers might require sufficient distance and time to adapt their driving behavior accordingly. Hereof, in addition to CVs Market Penetration Rate (MPR) and traffic flow characteristics, humans are still in the safety loop. Hence, there might be a human-related unobserved heterogeneity affecting the safety performance of CVs. A conflation of microsimulation and advanced statistical modeling was followed to account for this unobserved heterogeneity by investigating the random effect of varying delivery distances, specifically provided for the Work Zone Warning (WZW) application. CVs behaviors were calibrated based on the results of driving simulator experiments. A typical WZ was simulated under VISSIM using three levels of low, moderate, and high traffic volumes. Five levels of CV-MPR received the WZW on four different settings of delivery distances, including 1500, 3000, 4500, and 6000 ft, upstream of the Transition Area. Accordingly, 60 scenarios were simulated, and the number of critical Time-to-Collision (TTC) was considered as the response count variable per scenario. Four hierarchical Negative Binomial regressions under Bayesian inference were conducted on 60 observations over four WZ areas, where the delivery distance was treated as a random factor. Analysis of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient showed that the number of observed critical TTCs is nested within the delivery distances. It was ascertained, at any CV-MPR, when the WZW delivery distance increases, the number of critical TTCs decreases that indicates the same safety performance at higher CV-MPR can be achieved even at lower MPR if the WZW distancing increases. Besides, the optimal Road Side Unit (RSU) placement for WZW was found to be 4500 ft upstream of the Transition Area regardless of traffic volume and CV-MPR. Although this study was restricted to the CV-WZW application, the introduced delivery distance for CV notifications should be regarded in future studies as a contributing factor to the safety assessment of other CV applications.     

Modèles linéaires généralisés appliqués à l'étude des nombres d'accidents sur des sites routiers: Le modèle de Poisson et ses extensions

Models that link accident frequencies at road sites with traffic volumes and road characteristics provide reference values which are of value when carrying out diagnostic studies and deciding on preventive measures. Such models can be developed using generalized linear modelling techniques, which are able to take account of the Poisson properties of accident frequencies at road sites. The Poisson models obtained for road sites are frequently everdispersed, so extended forms of the Poisson model (quasi-Poisson, negative binomial a high percentage of the studied sites, in which case zero-inflated models also have to be considered. This paper presents an overview of these methods which are illustrated by modelling the relationship between accident frequency site characteristics and traffic volume on a large sample of bends.     

路基沉降的泊松预测模型方法研究

该文通过分析研究路基沉降的发展变化规律,建立了泊松预测模型。根据工程实例,证实泊松预测模型较好地反映了路基沉降发展过程,同时该模型的预测结果与实测值十分接近,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

基于FLAC2D的膨胀土边坡稳定性影响因素分析

在工程建设领域出现的膨胀土滑坡问题越来越多,准确地了解膨胀土土体各项参数对其稳定性有何影响显得尤为重要。以宿州至扬州高速公路天长段膨胀土边坡实例为计算模型,利用正交试验探讨了边坡土体天然密度、粘聚力、内摩擦角、弹性模量和泊松比对其稳定性的影响,发现对边坡稳定影响大小的顺序依次为:粘聚力、内摩擦角、天然密度、泊松比和弹性模量。     

贯穿裂隙岩体峰后变形特性研究

岩体峰后变形反映了其峰值强度后屈服、弱化的规律,为探寻规律,用RLW-1000型岩石三轴伺服刚性机,对不同倾角贯穿裂隙圆柱体标准试件进行常规三轴压缩试验,得到贯穿裂隙岩体的泊松比、峰值应变、峰后体积应变等的变化规律.经试验数据分析表明:峰后软化阶段的泊松比最大,峰值前弹性阶段泊松比最小,三个阶段的泊松比值与裂隙倾角基本无关;峰值应变基本随着裂隙倾角的增大而减小;峰后体积应变速率随着裂隙倾角的增大而减小.     

紫外老化对沥青混合料低温性能及力学性能的影响研究

为研究紫外老化对沥青混合料低温及力学性能的影响,首先通过人工模拟沥青混合料紫外老化试验、弯曲试验评价老化后混合料低温抗拉伸性;然后用单轴压缩试验得到不同紫外辐照时间下沥青混合料弹性模量和泊松比。结果表明:沥青混合料的抗拉伸性能随老化时间逐渐降低,在紫外老化110小时后抗拉伸性能无明显变化;沥青混合料的弯曲劲度模量不适合用来评价混合料的弯曲性能;沥青混合料的弹性模量呈现逐渐变大的规律,而泊松比并没有出现明显的规律性变化。