Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the level and volatility of spot (voyage) under bull and bear market conditions. The West African–US Gulf Tanker Rates, West Texas Intermediate spot and 3-month futures contract, and US Weekly Petroleum Inventories are analysed using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, from 1997 through 2007, in order to examine the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and tanker freight rates. Our findings show a relationship between spot and future crude oil prices, crude oil inventories and tanker rates. The significant increase of freight rates, and the simultaneous increase in oil prices, during the recent years, provides an intriguing economic environment to identify relationships between shipping market rates and oil prices. These relationships have significant implications for the markets. At the practical level, the better understanding of the relationship between freight rates and crude oil prices can improve operational management and budget planning decisions.     

Market efficiency in the bulk freight market revisited

Given that the freight rate is the price of a transportation service that cannot be traded or stored; the traditional form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) does not apply to the freight rate price process. However, the notion of market efficiency still applies in the freight market. In particular, under the hypothesis that the market is semi-strong-form efficient, it should not be possible to make excess profit by taking chartering positions in the freight market based on public information such as past levels of the spot freight rate or the shape of the term structure of freight rates. This paper contributes to the literature by proposing an alternative test of market efficiency in the bulk freight market. We utilize technical analysis based on the history of spot freight rates and investigate the profitability of such chartering strategies for a tanker operator. The chartering decisions are based on identification of the peaks and troughs in the freight market cycles using kernel smoothing of the spot freight rate history. The empirical results suggest that a large tanker operator (e.g. a pool) could have achieved significant profits without investing in ships by trading on such information, although this does not hold in the most recent subset of the sample.     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

原油运输市场分析

分别概述了世界与中国的石油资源储量分布、可持续开采年数、不同地区的生产量与消耗量、以及产销平衡状况,由此派生的全球不同地区原油、成品油的进出口量、海运量与主要的海运航线,我国石油进口的主要来源和途径;分析了油轮的船型和船龄的分布,进而预测了世界上几种主要原油轮运力的供应、需求、船价与运价的发展趋势。这些分析和预测可以作为制定油轮发展的技术政策、战略、规划等宏观决策时的参考。     

US imports of petroleum and related products in the 1980s

Petroleum and related goods account for an enormous share of international maritime trade. For the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, imports of petroleum and related products are a vital connection to foreign suppliers. This paper illustrates cartographically the geographic structure of imports of three major petroleum-related commodities—crude petroleum, refined petroleum products, and natural gas—and their changes in the 1980s. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient analyses reveal a modest deconcentration of crude petroleum within the US port system, an increasing concentration of petroleum products, and a relatively volatile geography of natural gas imports.     

Access of landocked and geographically-disadvantaged states to the fisheries resources of the economic exclusion zone (EEZ) under the New Convention on the law of the Sea

Petroleum and related goods account for an enormous share of international maritime trade. For the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, imports of petroleum and related products are a vital connection to foreign suppliers. This paper illustrates cartographically the geographic structure of imports of three major petroleum-related commodities—crude petroleum, refined petroleum products, and natural gas—and their changes in the 1980s. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient analyses reveal a modest deconcentration of crude petroleum within the US port system, an increasing concentration of petroleum products, and a relatively volatile geography of natural gas imports.     

Asian product trade

The 'Asian 'flu' has caused uncertainty about the future of product shipping in Asia. Product shipping is a difficult business, subject to the vagaries of such factors as local and regional supply/demand imbalances, refinery inputs, outputs and utilization rates, storage and terminalling considerations, product quality differences, price differentials, seasonal variations, and port traffic. This paper covers the Asia-Pacific product demand and trade by type in four major submarkets: Australasia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia. Forecasts are created of product demand by type and country, assessing likely additions to refinery capacities, and conducting computer-modelling exercises that simulate refinery output and product blending. The difference between product output and product demand in any given country is assumed to equate to trade. The analysis suggests that Asian economies will recover during the 2000-2005 period, and that there will be an increase in the petroleum product trade.     

“国油国运”的围城与突围

站在国家整体利益上，他们各自的坚持宛如“医得眼前疮．剜却心头肉”。 2012年．中国已成为世界第二大石油消费国和进口国，拥有和控制油轮船队规模位居世界第三。然而．与之形成鲜明对比的是，巨大石油进口量与中国油轮船队运输比例的失衡。那么，这种失衡背后到底是何因素在作怪？     

中国进口原油海运系统研究

随着中国原油消费量的快速增长和国家原油储备计划的实施,原油进口量逐年剧增。原油进口公司对于如何合理安排运输线路来降低进口运输费用的问题非常关注。根据我国原油进口运输以租外轮为主的现实情况,建立改进的运输问题模型,选择典型航线建立原油运输网络,并对其最优化。优化的结果可作为今后中国进口原油运输的参考。     

进口原油运输船型经济性分析

石油是世界海上运量最大的货种之一,约占海上总运输量的三分之一。加入WTO后,中国石油海上运输量,特别是进口原油运输量将大幅度地增加。针对这一现实情况,本文对世界原油运输船队的技术经济作了概括性分析,对原油进口航线作了介绍。建立了单船运输经济性测算模型。基于实船经济指标测算结果,以必要运费率为主,通过比较选出了优良船型。并定量测算出不同类型船舶在同一航线上营运的必要运费率及其差异。研究结果指出,随着进口原油量的大幅度增加,中国应大力发展VLCC和Suezmax船队,重点建设大型深水油轮码头。     

大型油轮缆力约束的统计分析

建立大型油码头设计船型,明确其各项特征参数,将有助于开展开敞式码头的系泊设计和试验研究。依据Q88油轮数据,采用覆盖率等方法,对10万吨级及以上油轮的缆力约束参数进行了统计分析,确定了大型油码头设计代表船型的系泊缆力约束参数。研究结果对于码头设计和系泊安全研究具有参考价值。     

Supply and demand of new oil tankers

This paper examines the world-wide supply and demand for new oil tankers. A simultaneous supply and demand model is developed and estimated using two-stage least squares techniques and empirical data from 1972 to 1983. The relationships between tanker newbuilding orders and prices, and other relevant market factors are analysed. Major factors affecting the tanker new building market are identified. The results indicate that: oil price and second-hand tanker price are predominant factors influencing future newbuilding demand; a moderate decrease in laid-up tonnage would not induce a significant increase in newbuilding orders; shipbuilding capacity is a more influential factor for the short-run supply of new tankers than shipbuilding cost. Technological change has also played an important role in the market.     

超大型油船舱段结构强度评估平台

双壳油船共同规范JTP对于船长超过150 m的油船推荐采用有限元进行直接计算分析其强度。本文依据JTP中关于舱段有限元建模的要求,采用有限元软件ANSYS的APDL语言,建立了超大型油船三舱段结构强度评估平台。该平台对于同一种结构形式下的不同设计参数,均能自动实现建模、网格划分、边界条件和工况加载、求解以及主要构件的应力输出等功能;初步实现了基于直接计算的超大型油船舱段强度评估的自动进行,为超大型油船的初步设计和结构优化提供了舱段结构强度评估的基础。     

船舶电解海水法的压载水处理系统

结合中海48000载重吨成品油／原油船“荣池”号的设计经验,对电解海水法的压载水处理系统首次在油船上使用时所面临的关键技术问题予以归纳分析,对今后相关系统的设计有较好的借鉴作用。     

An investigation into the existence of a two-tier spot freight market for crude oil carriers

Developments in environmental legislation have exercised increased pressure on the tanker sector to improve its quality. To date, the most influential and, indisputably, the most controversial piece of legislation against oil pollution is the U.S. Oil Pollution Act that was introduced in 1990. This paper attempts an empirical examination of the effects of these developments in the spot freight market. Using a database of Worldscale fixtures over a period of four and a half years, a series of statistical tests was performed with the aim of detecting the existence of any premium paid for vessels of lower age, double hull construction, or trading to the U.S.A. The results were mixed, indicating in several cases some form of premia for US.-bound vessels, but less evidence of premia for lower age and better hull construction.     

世界大型油轮的发展和我国原油码头的建设规模

通过对世界VLCC/ULCC 油轮船队的现状、发展趋势和进口油航线的分析,论证我国进口原油的经济船型,在此基础上探讨我国原油码头建设规模的经济性、合理性。     

大型油码头设计船型的系靠泊尺度研究

对油轮的系靠泊相关尺度进行了研究划分;建立了基于概率统计原理的"上覆盖率"和"下覆盖率"计算法;根据Q88租船数据库中的实船数据进行统计分析,确定了大型油码头设计船型与系靠泊相关的代表尺度。     

工艺参数对原油船用耐蚀钢DWSAW焊接接头的影响

论述前后丝模式、焊接电流、焊接电压和焊接速度对国产原油船用耐蚀钢双丝埋弧焊（Double Wire Submerged Arc Welding，DWSAW）焊缝成型的影响，开展耐蚀钢DWSAW工艺试验，分析耐蚀钢DWSAW焊接接头的力学性能和耐腐蚀性能。结果表明，国产原油船用耐蚀钢具有良好的DWSAW适应性，采用合适的焊接工艺可获得力学性能和耐腐蚀性能兼顾的焊接接头。     

国际原油价格攀升对国际航运市场的影响

分析了影响国际原油价格的供需、金融和地缘政治三个因素,并预测未来原油价格仍将持续上涨.通过计量分析,国际原油价格每增长一个百分点,将导致世界GDP下降0.13％.按照2008年世界GDP的水准,将最终导致国际航运需求年均下降约2亿吨的需求量.而需求持续下降,导致航运市场供给大于需求.为了降低供给,减少原油成本,国际航运效率将大幅下降.     

基于自适应加权的船舶操纵性能多目标优化

针对多目标优化问题中固定加权和法存在的缺陷,提出以设计者期望目标值为约束的自适应加权和法.以水面船舶为研究对象,建立操纵性能多目标优化数学模型.35000吨级原油船算例表明基于自适应加权法求解操纵性优化模型能获得较为理想的Pareto最优前沿.最后,采用信息熵权TOPSIS法对Pareto方案排序供决策者选择.