Comparison analysis of efficiency between double-synchronous step-down-stress and step-up-stress accelerated life tests

Double-crossed-step-stress (DCSS) accelerated life test (ALT) method is widely used for estimating the lifetime of products with high reliability and long lifetime. In order to further reduce the test time and test cost, a double-synchronous-step-stress (DSSS) ALT method which combines a double-synchronous-step-down-stress (DSSDS) ALT method and a double-synchronous-step-up-stress (DSSUS) ALT method is proposed. The accelerated stresses decrease and increase in a synchronous way with one step in the DSSDS-ALT and DSSUS-ALT methods, respectively. Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the two methods, and the validity and efficiency of them are demonstrated by the simulation results. In addition, a comparison analysis of efficiency between DSSDS-ALT method and DSSUS-ALT method is carried out. The result shows that the DSSDS-ALT method compared with the DSSUS-ALT method can significantly improve the test efficiency under the same test condition.     

Constant Stress Accelerated Life Tests for Vacuum Fluorescent Display Based on Least Square Method

To estimate the life of vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) more accurately and reduce test time and cost, four constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were conducted on an accelerated life test model. In the model, statistical analysis of test data is achieved by applying lognormal function to describe the life distribution, and least square method (LSM) to calculate the mean value and the standard deviation of logarithm. As a result, the accelerated life equation was obtained, and then a self-develop...     

Bivariate Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Model and Inference Based on the Inverse Gaussian Process

Modern highly reliable products may have two or more quality characteristics (QCs) because of their complex structures and abundant functions. Relations between the QCs should be considered when assessing the reliability of these products. This paper conducts a Bayesian analysis for a bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model based on the inverse Gaussian (IG) process. We assume that the product considered has two QCs and each of the QCs is governed by an IG process. The relationship between the QCs is described by a Frank copula function. We also assume that the stress on the products affects not only the parameters of the IG processes, but also the parameter of the Frank copula function. The Bayesian MCMC method is developed to calculate the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the model parameters. The reliability function and the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) are estimated through the calculation of the posterior samples. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the proposed bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model.     

Modeling the effect of environmental conditions on reliability of wind turbines

The climate condition of a wind farm has a significant influence on the reliability of wind turbines. The climate condition varies with season in a year and hence the reliability changes in a complex way. The purpose of this paper is to model the effect of climate condition on field reliability of wind turbines. The reliability is measured by monthly-averaged mean time between failures(MTBF), and the climate conditions are described by variables of monthly-averaged temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed. Referring to the physicsof-failure models in accelerated life testing(ALT), we develop a quantitative relation between the MTBF and the climate variables. For a set of field data, the model parameters are estimated by regression, and the insignificant variables are gradually deleted based on the P-value of the regression coefficients. The resulting model is useful for maintenance workload forecasting and preventive maintenance planning, and has a potential to be used in online failure prediction.     

丙型肝炎病原学检测的临床应用效果评价

目的　了解我国丙型肝炎病毒感染的病原学诊断现状 ,探讨合理有效的临床应用模式。方法　用酶联免疫吸附试验 (ELISA)检测抗HCV抗体 ,用荧光定量反转录聚合酶链式反应 (FQRT PCR)技术定量检测HCV RNA ,用速率法检测ALT水平。结果　 188份抗HCV IgG阳性标本中 10 3份HCV RNA阳性 (大于 10 3 拷贝·mL-1) ,阳性率 5 4 .7% ;10 7份HCV RNA阳性标本中 ,有 4份抗HCV IgG阴性 (3.7% ) ,二者一致率 6 9.8% ,不一致率 30 .2 % ;HCV RNA载量与ALT水平无明显相关性。结论　用ELISA检测抗HCV IgG筛查丙肝病人会有 3.7%的病毒血症者漏检 ,且有 4 5 .2 %的假阳性 (无传染性 ) ;用抗HCV IgG阳性加ALT升高作为诊断丙型肝炎现症患者价值有待探讨 ;抗HCV IgG的出现与否与HCV RNA载量无关。     

基于增强拉格朗日乘子法的容量制约交通分配问题研究(英文)

传统的交通分配问题(TAP)没有容量的限制,但是事实上,路段和网络都有其自身的容量限制。传统的用户均衡网络模型允许分配的交通流量结果超过其容量,这显然是不合理的。首先,介绍了起点算法的基本原理及其有效的实现,并运用一个算例网络进行交通分配;然后,运用增强拉格朗日乘子法针对具有容量限制的该网络重新进行交通分配,并将两种结果进行比较。实验结果表明:增强拉格朗日乘子法具有良好的运算性能和效率,并且更具有实际意义,能够更加合理的运用到实际的交通分配问题中。     

随机需求道路网络出行时间可靠性评估方法

为提高不确定路网可靠性评估的合理性,设需求服从对数正态分布,假定出行者在随机需求作用下能 够达到确定性用户均衡,运用路径算法获得流量,根据BPR(bureauofpublicroads)型路段特性函数以及对数正 态分布的概率特性,给出了路径出行时间的随机分布,以此为基础建立了路径及OD对出行时间可靠性评估模 型.用数值算例验证了评估方法的可行性,分析结果表明该方法能够合理评价需求及其波动程度、路径之间的相 关程度对出行时间可靠性的影响.      

Approach for Reliability Evaluation of Cross-Linked Polyethylene Under Combined Thermal and Vibration Stresses

Based on Wiener process model, a new approach for reliability evaluation of cross-linked polyethylene(XLPE) is proposed to improve the lifetime evaluation reliability of XLPE under multi-stressing conditions and study the failure probability distribution. In this paper, two accelerated aging tests are carried out under combined thermal and vibration conditions. The volume resistance degradation data of XLPE samples are tested with a24 h interval under the accelerated stressing conditions at(130℃, 12 m/s~2) and(150℃, 8.5 m/s~2), respectively.Nonlinear degradation data obtained from the experiment are transformed to linear intermediate-variable values using time scaling function, and then linearized degradation data are calculated and evaluated on the basis of linear Wiener process model. Considering traditional Arrhenius equation and inverse power criterion, parameters of the linear Wiener model are estimated according to the maximum likelihood function. The relationship curves on probability density and reliability are given, and the lifetime distribution of XLPE under different stressing conditions is also obtained for evaluating the reliability of XLPE insulation. Finally, the life expectancy of XLPE is 17.9 a under an allowance temperature of 90℃ and an actual vibration acceleration of 0.5 m/s~2. The approach and results in this paper may be used for reliability assessment of high-voltage multiple samples or apparatuses.     

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为考察出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的改善效果,将出行者划分为“有ATIS接收装置”和“无ATIS接收装置”两类,且均以随机方式选择路径,运用混合网络随机用户均衡建模理论构建了信息诱导下的出行路径选择模型.从路段容量的实际变化规律出发,假定其服从截尾正态分布,基于Monte Carlo仿真技术和网络均衡流求解算法,建立了信息影响下的道路网络出行时间可靠性评估方法.数值分析结果表明：道路网络出行时间可靠性随出行信息质量和信息系统的市场渗透率增加而递增,但其边际影响递减;对于交通需求水平高的道路网路,信息的提供对网络出行时间可靠性的改进更加明显.     

考虑温度和载荷影响的动车信息窗粘接结构寿命预测

针对动车信息窗粘接结构, 考虑环境和载荷对粘接结构寿命的影响, 提出了一种加速老化与自然老化相结合的寿命预测方法; 对粘接结构影响因素进行分析, 建立了加速老化的温度-动态载荷耦合循环谱, 制作了铝合金对接接头, 分别进行0、10、20、30循环周期的加速老化试验, 定期测试接头的剩余强度和失效形式, 获得粘接剂剩余强度随载荷循环次数的变化规律; 提取自然老化下不同行驶里程的实车胶条, 进行剩余强度测试, 获得了粘接剂剩余强度随行驶里程的变化规律; 采用多项式函数分别拟合载荷循环次数、行驶里程与粘接剂剩余强度衰减率的函数关系式, 建立了载荷循环次数与行驶里程之间的函数关系式。研究结果表明: 相比粘接接头初始强度, 温度循环10、20、30周期后粘接接头的剩余强度下降幅度依次为11.6%、15.9%、20.7%, 而温度-动态载荷耦合循环后强度分别下降了14.1%、18.9%、24.8%, 说明动态载荷加剧了接头强度的衰减, 并且均呈现先快后慢的下降趋势; 温度-动态载荷耦合试验作用后, 接头断面的失效形式和机理变化明显, 初始时接头胶层发生老化失效, 而后随着载荷循环次数的增加, 接头主要失效机理由老化失效转变为疲劳失效; 加速老化与自然老化下粘接剂失效强度的衰减率变化趋势基本一致, 建立的载荷循环次数与行驶里程的函数关系式能够较准确地预测粘接结构的寿命, 预测得到动车最大安全里程为8.34×10⁶ km。     

基于Wiener退化对镁水泥混凝土中钢筋的锈蚀预测

镁水泥混凝土对钢筋的腐蚀限制了其广泛的推广应用,为解决这一难题,提出利用涂层来缓解其对钢筋的腐蚀,确保镁水泥钢筋混凝土建筑满足设计规定的使用年限要求. 根据西部盐渍土地区的自然环境,采用溶液浸泡加速锈蚀的试验方法对氯氧镁涂层钢筋混凝土进行快速腐蚀试验;运用电化学工作站周期性地对氯氧镁涂层钢筋混凝土试块进行电化学试验;以表征涂层钢筋锈蚀的电化学参数（腐蚀电流密度）作为退化指标,在Wiener退化过程的基础上进行可靠度建模并且对涂层钢筋进行锈蚀预测. 研究结果表明:利用涂层钢筋腐蚀电流密度作为耐久性退化指标可以得到镁水泥涂层钢筋混凝土中的涂层钢筋锈蚀的可靠度函数,并确定出涂层钢筋在30 000 d左右达到中等腐蚀.      

换乘约束下城市多方式交通分配模型与算法

基于超网络理论构建了可换乘条件下城市多方式交通系统的超网络模型,同时基于所建超网络,在考虑出行者的换乘规律和换乘行为等因素下,定义了可行超路径.将超网络的路段划分为行驶路段、换乘路段、上网路段和下网路段等4类,考虑出行时间、货币费用及舒适度感受3种因素,建立各类路段的广义费用函数及超路径广义费用函数.基于超路径费用,定义了有效超路径.在此基础上,提出城市多方式交通系统的随机平衡分配模型,并且提出了换乘约束下有效超路径和最短可行超路径的搜索算法.最后,通过一个数值算例说明所提出方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于威布尔分布的更新函数确定方法研究

根据工程应用的需要，基于威布尔分布的前提条件，对不同情况下更新函数的确定方法进行专门研究。经严格的数学推导和证明，分别给出了教学期望法、麦克劳伦（Maclaurin）级数展开法和极限定理法。利用研究结果，可以简化实际问题的数学建模，并确保模型求解的准确性和可靠性。     

基于ALTA的加速寿命试验数据分析

简单介绍了加速寿命试验,并将计算机辅助工程应用于加速寿命试验数据分析.通过定量加速寿命测试数据分析)软件ALTA对某新产品的三组恒定应力加速寿命试验所获得的数据做了计算机辅助仿真分析.结果表明,通过这个方法可以快速、准确得到可靠性设计中常用的参数,可以大大缩短可靠性设计时间,提高效率,具有较强的实用性.     

基于子模型方法的地铁车体疲劳寿命评估

车体是地铁车辆的重要承载部件,针对全尺寸车体疲劳试验综合难度高的问题,基于端部底架子模型包含了牵枕缓等在车体中受力最严苛结构的特点,提出采用端部底架子模型代替全尺寸车体进行疲劳试验的方法;建立了端部底架子模型和全尺寸车体的有限元模型,并参照EN 12663标准所确定的疲劳载荷,通过设置合理的边界条件使得端部底架子模型与全尺寸车体关键位置应力分布一致;将试验测得端部底架关键位置的应力与仿真结果进行对比,验证了有限元模型的准确性,进而采用名义应力法和Eurocode 9标准规定的疲劳寿命-应力（S-N）曲线对车体和底架焊缝部位进行了疲劳损伤计算. 结果表明:端部底架3个最大损伤位置与全尺寸车体一致,并且同一位置处端部底架的损伤值均大于车体损伤值,因此采用子模型法评估全尺寸车体的疲劳寿命易于获得相对保守的结果,针对地铁车体采用子模型法进行疲劳寿命评估是可行的.      

物流产业的非差异性定价模型研究

物流产业中的活动主要是依靠物流网络采实现的,同时,物流产业的竞争又体现在物流企业的定价策略上,本文运用博弈论原理和方法,结合我国具体环境,建立了物流产业中非差异性的物流网络定价模型,在此基础上,对非差异性物流网络定价从经济学的角度进行了深入分析。最后,从政府的角度对物流产业的非差异性定价提出了建设性的建议。     

基于寿命周期成本的桥梁技术改造经济评价研究

运用工程经济学的基本原理,采用成本年值的动态分析方法,对既有桥梁的加固与重建在其寿命周期内可能产生的各项费用进行了详细的对比分析,建立了桥梁改造的经济分析比选模型,提出了基于寿命周期成本的桥梁技术改造的经济评价方法．最后列举简单算例说明方案比选过程,由计算结果可知该方法能较准确地反映桥梁加固工程的经济效果,能够为既有桥梁改造方案的合理选择提供参考．     

Constant-Step Stress Accelerated Life Test of VFD under Logarithmic Normal Distribution Case

IntroductionVacuum Fluorescent Display(VFD)is nowwidely used in many fields,such as household elec-tric appliance,instruments and meters,communi-cation device,OA,and so on[1].The VFD acceler-ated life test is urgently needed for rapid life esti-mation because of the rival market and the quicklydesigned speed.To the author's knowledge,so farthere are no research reports on VFD acceleratedlife test by logarithmic normal distribution.In view of merits of the step-stress acceleratedlife test…     

单向交通对公交的影响及对策

单向交通是缓解城市交通拥堵的有效方法,目前已在我国很多城市实行,但会对城市公交带来一定的影响。通过理论分析和实际经验,分析单向交通对公交的影响,对乘客最关心增加的步行距离得出计算模型,并针对这些影响提出改善措施,对我国实行单向交通的城市有一定的借鉴意义。     

Singular perturbation composite control of a free-floating flexible dual-arm space robot

The Free-floating Flexible Dual-arm Space Robot is a highly nonlinear and coupled dynamics system. In this paper, the dynamic model is derived of a Free-floating Flexible Dual-arm Space Robot holding a rigid payload. Furthermore, according to the singular perturbation method, the system is separated into a slow subsystem representing rigid body motion of the robot and a fast subsystem representing the flexible link dynamics. For the slow subsystem, based on the second method of Lyapunov, using simple quantitative bounds on the model uncertainties, a robust tracking controller design is used during the trajectory tracking phase. The optimal control method is designed in the fast subsystem to guarantee the exponential stability. With the combination of the two above, the system can track the expected trajectory accurately, even though with uncertainty in model parameters, and its flexible vibration gets suppressed, too. Finally, some simulation tests have been conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.