The generalised cost dilemma

Over the last ten years the concept of generalised cost has been gaining an increasing hold in both the theory and practice of transport planning, particularly in Britain and Australia; and in some circles it is now even beginning to be treated with awe as a major break-through with far reaching implications over a much broader area of economic analysis and public sector decision making. This article challenges the current orthodoxy, and suggests that the approach suffers from a number of major theoretical and practical weaknesses: principally that it gives an inaccurate and misleading representation of the interaction between variables relevant to a decision problem, providing little confidence that it can be of much use as a predictive tool; that it has no justification in theories of consumer behaviour, contrary to what is often supposed; and that there are considerable confusions set up by the British Government's recommended approach to evaluation and to the choice of measuring units.Most of these faults stem from falling into "index number traps" which involve reading into indices extra properties which they were not given when constructed, and which are often inconsistent with the basic principles on which they were designed. Five of these traps are discussed: the generalised cost index itself, together with the associated indices of elasticity, utility, time value and consumers' surplus.Suggestions are made not only about the kind of procedures that should replace the inappropriate generalised cost methodology, but also about how the current British practice should in any event be modified so as to eliminate as many as possible of its deficiencies.The article gives only the author's personal views. He is indebted to Phil Goodwin for the several invaluable discussions that stimulated its preparation and to him, David Lewis, David Quarmby and Elyot Turner for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

A theory and implications on dynamic marginal cost

This paper extends the conventional static marginal cost analysis to the dynamic one based on the time-dependent queueing analysis at a bottleneck. First, the supply function is reformulated so as to incorporate dynamically congestion phenomena. And, the marginal cost is shown to be more closely related to the duration of congestion rather than the personal cost, since a slight change of demand at one time affects an entire traffic condition thereafter. Next, the analysis is extended so as to include the departure time choice using previous departure time choice theory. Several implications such as road pricing schemes and ramp control strategies are also discussed.     

Microeconomic determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates and contract times

While the literature has established macroeconomic determinants of shipping freight (charter) rates, there has been no systematic investigation of the microeconomic determinants of shipping freight rates. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate microeconomic determinants of freight rates in the dry bulk shipping market, using a large sample of individual dry bulk charter contracts from January 2003 to July 2009. Differences in freight rates across major dry bulk shipping routes, the geographical distribution of shipping activities around the world, and the duration of the laycan period of shipping contracts are also investigated. Estimated results suggest that the laycan period and dry bulk freight rates are interrelated and determined simultaneously. Furthermore, vessel deadweight, age and voyage routes are important determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates, while determinants of the laycan period of chartered vessels include vessel age, freight rate level, and freight rate volatility.     

造价工程师对工程造价的控制和管理

工程造价的有效控制和管理是工程建设管理的重要组成部分。对造价工程师在投资决策阶段、设计阶段、实施阶段公路建设项目的造价控制进行了论述。     

Accident cost saving and highway attributes

Two semi-logarithmic regression models are developed to estimate accident rates and accident costs, respectively, for rural non-interstate highways in the state of Iowa. Data on 21,224 accidents occurring between 1989 and 1991 on 17,767 road segments are used in the analysis. Seven road attributes of these road segments are included as predictor variables. Applying the resulting regression models to a rather typical highway upgrade situation, the present value of the accident cost saving is computed. The sensitivity of the estimated cost saving to values for fatal, personal injury, and property damage only accidents is tested.Because factors other than road characteristics greatly influence accident costs, the models developed in this research explain a limited amount of the variance in these costs among road segments. Results of the analysis indicate that the most important attribute associated with accident costs is average daily traffic per lane, followed by conditions requiring passing restrictions and the sharpness of curves. Varying the values for the three categories of accidents shows that results are far more sensitive to the value of personal injuries than fatalities. The feasibility of using predictive models of accident costs in benefit-cost analyses of highway investments is demonstrated.     

The cost of equity: Assessing transit accessibility and social disparity using total travel cost

Social equity is increasingly incorporated as a long-term objective into urban transportation plans. Researchers use accessibility measures to assess equity issues, such as determining the amount of jobs reachable by marginalized groups within a defined travel time threshold and compare these measures across socioeconomic categories. However, allocating public transit resources in an equitable manner is not only related to travel time, but also related to the out-of-pocket cost of transit, which can represent a major barrier to accessibility for many disadvantaged groups. Therefore, this research proposes a set of new accessibility measures that incorporates both travel time and transit fares. It then applies those measures to determine whether people residing in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods in Montreal, Canada experience the same levels of transit accessibility as those living in other neighborhoods. Results are presented in terms of regional accessibility and trends by social indicator decile. Travel time accessibility measures estimate a higher number of jobs that can be reached compared to combined travel time and cost measures. However, the degree and impact of these measures varies across the social deciles. Compared to other groups in the region, residents of socially disadvantaged areas have more equitable accessibility to jobs using transit; this is reflected in smaller decreases in accessibility when fare costs are included. Generating new measures of accessibility combining travel time and transit fares provides more accurate measures that can be easily communicated by transportation planners and engineers to policy makers and the public since it translates accessibility measures to a dollar value.     

Road cost recovery in Australia

This paper addresses the question of road cost recovery in the Australian context. It reviews some of the major issues and emphasizes the inherent problems (both theoretical and practical) in resolving these issues. The result of these complexities is that the answers to many of the key questions are ‘assumption‐sensitive’. Some of the more significant studies which have been conducted in Australia in recent years are briefly reviewed, and the numerical results of one recent study—the National Road Freight Industry Inquiry (1984) are presented.     

工程项目的成本管理策略

从工程项目成本管理的必要性和紧迫性方面,阐述施工项目目标成本预测和成本的计划、控制和考核对目标成本进行管理等具体内容,并对目标成本管理实施要点提出建议。     

物流成本系统化控制研究

本文分析了目前物流成本控制的基本方法,指出其不足并提出了用系统化方法来控制物流成本的思路.     

公路施工项目成本管理的探讨

对公路工程项目管理成本控制的原则进行分析。结合在滨德高速公路的施工项目,提出了成本控制措施。     

A model to assess cost and fuel savings from ride sharing

A model based on geometric probability concepts is developed to assess the performance of carpooling and vanpooling strategies. Fuel consumption and operating cost issues are treated in the paper, and the model can be extended to treat travel time and air quality issues also. It is shown that simple calculations of the fuel saved through carpool programs can overstate the savings by a factor of two. The operating costs of vanpools and carpools are also compared.     

Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

The econometric estimation of airports’ cost function

The econometric estimation of cost functions has been proposed in the literature as a suitable approach in order to obtain estimations of marginal costs, efficiency levels and scale elasticities for transport industries. However, regarding the airport industry, no significant attention has been paid in developing an airport-specific estimation methodology rather than adapting the procedures applied to other industries. The lack of comparable airport data is one of the causes which could explain the scarcity of this literature in the past, as well as the use of very limited approaches to explain airport technology. This paper tries to overcome these limitations by developing an airport-specific methodology to estimate a multi-output long-run cost function using an unbalanced pooled database on 161 airports worldwide. The specification of hedonically-adjusted aircraft operations, domestic and international passengers, cargo and commercial revenues in the output vector, as well as the calculation of input prices are discussed. Both technical and allocative inefficiencies are specified in the model using a Stochastic Frontier method that has been estimated through Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

浅谈施工企业项目成本控制

随着公路市场的发展,施工企业项目成本控制越来越重要,介绍了施工企业项目成本控制的原则及方法。     

The marginal cost taxation of a transportation network

The paper shows that if the cost and demand functions satisfy certain weak smoothness conditions then the marginal cost taxation of a transportation network is optimal in the usual local sense. Interactions between the cost of travel along a link and flow along other links and between the demand for travel along a route and flow along other routes are permitted.     

The abatement cost function for a representative vehicle inspection and maintenance program

Mandatory inspection and maintenance programs require on-road vehicles to be tested regularly and repaired if they are not in compliance with air emission regulations. We estimate the abatement cost function for a representative inspection and maintenance program. This is done by constructing a model of the statistical process that leads to non-compliance, parameterizing the model, and then by simulating the total abatement cost function. The model predicts that the marginal abatement cost for a major representative program is so high that even a small reduction in the abatement target leads to substantial cost savings to motorists. In addition, even for quite high levels of the abatement target, the optimal minimum testing age is substantially higher and the frequency of testing is much lower than is common in many jurisdictions.     

An analysis of the retail and lifecycle cost of battery-powered electric vehicles

Regulators, policy analysts, automobile manufacturers, environmental groups, and others are debating the merits of policies regarding the development and use of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs). At the crux of this debate is lifecycle cost: the annualized initial vehicle cost, plus annual operating and maintenance costs, plus battery replacement costs. To address this issue of cost, we have developed a detailed model of the performance, energy use, manufacturing cost, retail cost, and lifecycle cost of electric vehicles and comparable gasoline internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This effort is an improvement over most previous studies of electric vehicle costs because instead of assuming important parameter values for such variables as vehicle efficiency and battery cost, we model these values in detail. We find that in order for electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with gasoline ICEVs, batteries must have a lower manufacturing cost, and a longer life, than the best lithium-ion and nickel–metal hydride batteries we modeled. We believe that it is most important to reduce the battery manufacturing cost to $100/kWh or less, attain a cycle life of 1200 or more and a calendar life of 12 years or more, and aim for a specific energy of around 100 Wh/kg.