考虑非线性累积损伤的大跨多荷载桥梁的疲劳可靠度评估

针对大跨多荷载桥梁疲劳损伤累积非线性过程中的大量不确定性,对火车、汽车与风荷载作用下的大跨悬索桥,利用连续损伤模型提出了一个疲劳可靠度评估方法.首先,在连续损伤模型基础上,对模型参数进行分析;然后,根据工程应用的需要,适当简化疲劳模型,在连续损伤模型中引入合适的随机变量,定义疲劳可靠度分析的极限状态函数,假定多种未来可能的交通荷载和荷载增长模式,利用蒙特卡洛方法产生随机变量并计算失效概率;最后以香港青马大桥为例,讨论了该桥在不同荷载状况下使用120年后的疲劳失效概率.研究发现:若保持当前的交通状态,桥梁可保持良好状况,但未来交通荷载的快速增长会导致结构提前失效.      

Reliability Copula Model for Wind Turbine Gearbox Based on Failure Correlation

On the basis of each gear’s failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear’s life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system’s joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.     

中型载重汽车可靠性与维修性指标评定

对EQ1090和CA1091两种载重汽车的可靠性与维修性进行了统计分析和计算。结果表明,EQ1090的平均故障间隔里程MTBF约为1776公里,平均修复时间MTTR约为10.39小时;CA1091的MTBF约为1821公里,MTTR约为9.88小时。各子系统中,EQ1090的发动机和CA1091的发动机MTBF为最小,EQ1090的后桥和CA1091的变速箱的MTTR为最大。     

民用航空发动机在翼时间控制方法

为了通过视情维修策略控制民航发动机在翼时间,分析了发动机维修与在翼时间的特点,建立了反映在翼时间与状态监测变量和故障强度之间关系的比例强度模型,确立了性能衰退下的在翼时间控制限与单位时间总成本期望值最小时的最优预防性维修间隔,并进行了CF6-80C2A5型发动机运营数据的实例验证。结果表明:故障强度小,则在翼时间控制限低;预防性维修与事后维修成本率会影响最优预防性维修间隔;完备的发动机拆换与在翼历史记录、维修成本、适航与制造商要求、寿命件限制等数据是提高在翼时间控制准确性的关键。     

Dynamic response analysis of a multi-column tension-leg-type floating wind turbine under combined wind and wave loading

Floating wind turbines (FWTs) are subjected to combined aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads varying both in time and amplitude. In this study, a multi-column tension-leg-type FWT (i.e., WindStar TLP system) is investigated for its global performance under normal operating conditions and when parked. The selected variables are analysed using a fully coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic time domain simulation tool FAST. Three different loading scenarios (wind only, wave only and both combined) are examined to identify the dominant load influencing each response. The key response variables are obtained and compared with those for an NREL 5MW baseline wind turbine installed on land. The results should aid the detailed design of the WindStar TLP system.     

网络行程时间可靠性评价方法与影响因素

采用区域划分方法研究了网络行程时间率的概率分布, 提出了基于OD对的网络行程时间可靠性指标以评价城市交通可靠性; 选取影响行程时间可靠性指标的相关因素, 建立了多元线性回归模型, 用逐步回归法求解模型, 并进行了模型参数显著性检验; 根据杭州市和北京市的网约车数据计算了网络行程时间可靠性指标, 并与高峰拥堵延迟指数进行对比, 分析了网络行程时间可靠性指标的时间和空间分布规律。研究结果表明: 在多元线性回归模型中, 规划行程时间率与等待时间、费用、距离、行程时间和OD对间行程次数这5个自变量拟合得到的决定系数为0.772, 平均行程时间率与5个自变量拟合得到的决定系数为0.857, 2个模型拟合程度均较好, 回归模型显著; 规划行程时间率回归模型中等待时间、行程时间和实际行程距离的回归系数分别为0.386、0.399与-1.286, 平均行程时间率回归模型中等待时间、行程时间和实际行程距离的回归系数分别为0.162、0.177与-0.676, 2个交通可靠性指标都与等待时间和行程时间呈正相关, 和实际行程距离呈负相关; 提出的网络行程时间可靠性指标与高峰拥堵延迟指数变化趋势一致, 较好地符合现实交通状况, 从多角度反映了交通可靠性特征, 可以为路网规划提供决策支持, 帮助居民更好地进行出行路径选择。      

基于多传感器的轨道区段占用解决方案

针对轨道电路分路不良的问题,提出一种基于多传感器的轨道区段占用解决方案.该方案利用红外对射、接近开关和测距3种传感器不同的安装方法来实现数据采集,基于D-S证据理论建立了轨道占用检测模型,并通过Petri网的轨道占用检测模型实现列车计轴,在上位机实现对轨道占用情况的判断,以此对铁路行车控制提供有效依据.分析表明,本文设计的轨道电路占用解决方案的危险侧失效概率达到10-7,MTBF(平均故障间隔时间)达到105 h,满足铁路应用的可靠性和安全性需求;与传统轨道电路相比,解决轨道区段占用问题的正确率提高了20%.      

高频开关电源系统可靠性研究

高频开关电源系统的可靠性直接关系到电源系统的正常运行,本文采用冗余技术来提高系统的可靠性,给出了影响高频开关电源系统可靠性的主要因素,并针对不同电源系统可靠性(MTBF),提出了计算与分析方法。     

用变点分析方法评价城市公共汽车预防维修效果

维修保养的效果影响车辆的运行可靠性和维修费用.基于现场数据,采用变点分析方法,分析汽车二级保养和三级保养前、后失效发生率的变化,并由此评价车辆不同级保养的效果.该方法可为企业维修质量的改进提供依据.     

Bayesian reliability assessment and degradation modeling with calibrations and random failure threshold

A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.     

长江中游通航环境风场气候变化特征及其航运影响分析

以长江中游沿岸17个气象站点风场的数据为基础,统计分析了长江中游通航环境风场的气候变化特征.研究表明:除宜昌站外长江中游各站点年平均风速总体呈减小趋势,大部分站点2000年以后年平均风速有所上升;年平均风速在20世纪80年代左右发生突变;日最大风速5级以上的天数总体呈下降趋势;巴东站2000年以后日最大风速5级以上的年天数增多(25.3d/a),荆州站点在2004年以前呈下降趋势,2004年以后5级风天数明显上升.分析结果表明,长江中游风场的气候变化对航运是有利的.     

Prediction Approach to Life on Wing for Civil Aeroengine

To reduce engine maintenance cost and support safe operation, a prediction method of engine life on wing was proposed. This method is a kind of regression model which is a function of the condition monitoring and failure data. Key causes of engine removals were analyzed, and the life limit due to performance deterioration was predicted by proportional hazards model. Then the scheduled removal causes were considered as constraints of engine life to predicte the final life on wing. Application of the proposed prediction method to the case of CF6-80C2A5 engine fleet in an airline proved its effectiveness.     

基于概率的桥梁劣化模型与维护策略关系

桥梁结构在服役过程中,随着时间的推移,抗力不断降低,其性能逐渐退化.提出桥梁在服役过程中可靠指标的非线性指数劣化模型以及状态指标的非线性劣化模型,能够反映劣化过程中的高次变化规律,结合两种不同的周期预防性维护策略,推导了桥梁服役期间任意时刻可靠度指标与状态指标的计算公式,研究了桥梁可靠度指标与状态指标之间的相互关系.     

基于概率的桥梁劣化模型与维护策略关系

桥梁结构在服役过程中,随着时间的推移,抗力不断降低,其性能逐渐退化.提出桥梁在服役过程中可靠指标的非线性指数劣化模型以及状态指标的非线性劣化模型,能够反映劣化过程中的高次变化规律,结合两种不同的周期预防性维护策略,推导了桥梁服役期间任意时刻可靠度指标与状态指标的计算公式,研究了桥梁可靠度指标与状态指标之间的相互关系.     

Optimal Burn-in and Preventive Maintenance Modeling with Competing Failure Processes

In this article, we assume that the product in the burn-in procedure only experiences continuous smooth degradation process, while in the field operation period the product experiences both continuous smooth degradation process and shock process. The shock process can cause the product not only traumatic failure,but also additional abrupt degradation damage. After the system reliability model and maintenance model have been proposed, the optimal burn-in setting and age replacement duration are obtained under the considering of minimizing the long run average cost rate. A numerical example with the real data is analyzed to illustrate the application of the model.     

Optimum Consecutive Preventive Maintenance Scheduling Model Considering Reliability

As an effective means for improving system condition and reducing failures, a reasonable preventive maintenance scheduling guarantees the stability and safety of the system. This paper studies a consecutive maintenance scheduling problem for single-component systems with imperfect maintenance, and an optimum model with minimum reliability constraint for minimal cost rate is developed based on the renewal theory. The agebased and reliability-based maintenance strategies are modeled and compared according to a numerical example based on the degradation data of the actual system, which also verifies the optimality of the reliability-based strategy. At last, the influence of some key parameters is discussed by sensitive analysis.     

基于KDE及Markov的高速列车传动系振动评价及可靠性分析

为研究高速列车运行过程中传动系的振动情况及可靠性，对CRH3型高速列车传动系关键部件的振动加速度数据进行实车采集，采用核密度估计（KDE）法对采集数据统计处理，得出各关键部件在各方向上振动响应的概率密度函数近似曲线，据此对传动系的关键部件进行振动评价；通过MATLAB计算各关键部件振动加速度的最优置信区间；对传动系及传动系的关键部件定义“安全”和“故障”两种状态，建立关键部件的威布尔比例失效率模型及传动系的Markov状态转移模型，以传动系当前状态为初始状态，基于实时故障率及维修率分析传动系可靠性的变化. 研究结果表明:传动系中轴箱轴承、齿轮箱以及电机轴承的垂向振动最强，振动加速度集中分布在25倍、20倍、10倍重力加速度范围内，概率99.75%的均方差值分别在20.5026倍、17.6712倍、11.4693倍重力加速度内；计算得到各关键部件振动加速度概率为99.75%的最优置信区间，为系统的振动监测阈值优化及故障评估提供参考；故障率及维修率是影响传动系统状态概率的关键因素，当故障率增加30%时，系统的状态概率约下降10%，当维修率由0.05提升至0.10时，可使系统的可靠性提高20%.      

分层结构热备冗余系统的可靠性分析

热备冗余结构在安全苛求系统中应用广泛．智能化输入输出模块和逻辑处理模块的分离形成了分层结构,层内两个模块相互热备,层与层串联后实现系统功能．采用Markov分析方法,考虑模块失效率和维修率,对分层热备冗余系统的可靠性进行了研究．按照优先恢复系统功能的维修策略建立了系统状态转移图,并由此得出了系统可靠性计算方法．依据仿真计算结果,不同模块的失效率和维修率对系统可靠性的影响程度相似,低优先级修复的模块对系统可靠性的影响程度增大．     

远距离大容量风水互补系统的优化调度

为了有效应对能源危机和气候变化,电力系统应尽可能的吸纳可再生能源并网发电．本文分析了风力发电和水力发电的不确定性,根据风能资源和水能资源的互补特点构建了远距离大容量风水互补系统．在一定的风能资源和水能资源条件下设计了风水互补系统的优化调度模型,并采用混沌微分进化算法求解．修改后的IEEE-30节点算例结果表明：远距离风水互补系统可以平抑风电出力波动,大大减少系统火电机组燃料耗费,节能减排效果显著．     

机械零部件失效相依方向可靠性模型

为判定机械结构系统可靠性工程中相关性失效的相依方向,在线性回归背景下,根据线性相关系数的特性,建立了可靠性变量判定模型.应用Copula回归函数,将该模型扩展到对一般非对称型相关结构可靠性的相关性失效方向判定,并应用于判定机车设备转轴的磨损失效和变形失效相关性失效方向,得到其磨损量偏度系数、变形量偏度系数分别为2.362×10-6和9.665×10-33.研究结果表明,磨损失效占有主导地位,与实际转轴的主要失效形式一致,验证了该模型的有效性.