多种参数影响下的船舶艉轴承润滑性能分析

针对安装误差导致的轴颈倾斜角、主轴转速、艉轴工作环境温度等因素对船舶艉轴承润滑性能影响的问题，以某散货船为研究对象，基于Reynolds边界条件，运用有限差分法对Reynolds方程进行求解，通过数值分析软件MATLAB进行编程，获得不同工况下艉轴承的润滑模型。进而对多种参数影响下的油膜压力和油膜厚度差异进行对比分析。结果表明:考虑轴颈倾斜角的情况下，轴颈倾角逐步增大，油膜压力峰值与轴颈倾角呈现正相关关系，最小油膜厚度减小速度先快后慢；主机在不同工况下，油膜压力峰值与主轴转速呈现负相关关系，最小油膜厚度与主轴转速则呈现出一种近似正比的关系；当艉轴工作环境温度变化时，随着温度的升高，最大油膜压力逐渐增大，最小油膜厚度变化趋势则相反，逐渐向减小的方向发展。     

Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

An idealized model of interaction between fronds of the large seaweed Durvillaea antarctica

The effect of interactions between individual fronds in a bed of the large intertidal seaweed Durvillaea antarctica, when forced by breaking waves, is studied using a computational model. The model simulates the response of a seaweed bed using a sequence of connected oscillators which are excited by a propagating forcing function representing a breaking ocean wave. Two new facets of the interplay between seaweeds and hydrodynamics are considered: (i) wave forcing due to breaking waves is often not sinusoidal in the rocky intertidal zone and (ii) a frond interaction term is included. The addition of frond interaction reduces the maximum loading on individuals within the bed by around 30% using estimated biomechanical parameters. The rate of change of the loading on the holdfast (equivalent to the “jerk”) is affected in a similar or greater fashion.     

Gulf of Gdansk spring bloom physical, bio-optical, biological modelling and contact data assimilation

In this study we propose a model of phytoplankton population dynamics in the marine ecosystem, which includes physical, biological and bio-optical parts. As an example we simulate the abnormal 1993 Gulf of Gdansk spring bloom, when extremely high chlorophyll concentrations were observed. For the one-dimensional model we use two different methods of contact chlorophyll observation assimilation to fit a model of “in situ” data. The results are compared with two-dimensional ecosystem modelling based on a barotropic model of wind-driven circulation without assimilation.     

Modeling gas dissolution in deepwater oil/gas spills

Gases in deepwater oil/gas spills can lose considerable amounts of the gas phase due to dissolution in water. Gas dissolution has a significant impact on the behavior of the oil/gas jet/plume because of its impact on the buoyancy. A method is presented in this paper for computing gas dissolution that covers a broad range of water depth, from shallow water where gases behave as ideal ones under low pressure to deepwater where gases behave as non-ideal ones under high pressures. The method presented also accounts for the spherical and non-spherical shapes of gas bubbles. The gas dissolution computations are validated by comparing the computed results with observed data from previously conducted laboratory experiments. The gas dissolution computation module is then integrated with a model for underwater oil/gas jets/plumes by Yapa and Zheng [J. Hydraul. Res. 35 (5) (1997) 673]. Scenario simulations are presented to show the impacts of gas dissolution on the behavior of jets/plumes. These scenarios show the impact of dissolution on the behavior of the jet/plume. The comparison of results using ideal gas conditions and non-ideal gas conditions is also shown.     

A dynamic CSTT model for the effects of added nutrients in Loch Creran, a shallow fjord

Despite a tendency for the complexity of physical–biological models to increase, simple coupled models remain useful for some applications and can provide insights into crucial links between physical and biological processes. This argument is illustrated with an account of a simple 3-box model intended to help assess the capacity of fjords to assimilate nutrients from fish farms. The model, a dynamic version of the UK “Comprehensive Studies Task Team” (CSTT) steady-state model for eutrophication, was applied to Loch Creran (Scottish Western Highlands) and was implemented using Stella 8 and tested using historical data from 1975 (before the installation of a salmon farm) and field data collected in 2003, during the period of operation of the farm. The model's biological state variables are chlorophyll, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and it includes a simple run-off model to convert rainfall into river discharge. The physical processes involved in exchange between the loch and the adjacent waters of the Firth of Lorne were parameterised as a constant daily exchange rate.Between 1975 and 2003, local inputs of nutrient increased but, despite this, there was little apparent increase in nutrient concentrations in the loch, and observed chlorophyll concentrations decreased substantially. Model simulations of chlorophyll and DIN agreed well with observations in 1975, as did DIN simulations in 2003. However, simulated chlorophyll was overestimated in 2003.Some of the agreement between observations and simulations come from the use of observed boundary conditions to force the model. However, even when boundary conditions are subtracted from simulations and observations, the simulations in most cases retain a significant correlation with observations, demonstrating that the model's ‘interior’ processes do add to its ability to replicate conditions in the loch.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Transport of radionuclides by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads

A transport assessment of particle-bound and dissolved artificial radionuclides (¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu) by sea-ice and dense-water formed in western Kara Sea flaw leads close to the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites is presented in this study. We both performed a “best estimate” based on available data, and a “maximum assessment” relying on simulated constant releases of 1 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu from individual dumping bays. The estimates are based on a combination of (i) the content of particulate matter in sea-ice; (ii) analytical data and numerical simulations of radionuclide concentrations in shelf surface deposits, suspended particulate matter (SPM), and the dissolved phase; and (iii) estimates of lead-ice and dense-water formation rates as well as modeling results of local ice drift pathways. In the “best estimate” case, 2.90 GBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.51 GBq ^239,240Pu attached to sea-ice sediments can be exported from the lead areas toward the central Arctic basin. The radionuclide burden of the annually formed dense lead water in the “best estimate” amounts to 4.68 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and 0.014 TBq ^239,240Pu. In the “maximum assessment”, potential export-rates of ice-particle bound ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu toward the central Arctic would amount to 0.64 and 0.16 TBq, respectively. As much as ≈900 TBq ¹³⁷Cs and ≈6.75 TBq ^239,240Pu could be annually taken up by 34.75 dense-water rejected in the lead area. Assuming the (unlikely) instantaneous release of the total ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu inventories (≈1 PBq and 10 TBq, respectively) from the Novaya Zemlya dumping sites into the dissolved phase, the dense lead water locally formed during one winter season could take up ≈90% of the Cs and ≈68% of the Pu released.     

Multivariate assimilation in MERCATOR project: New statistical parameters from forecast error estimation

The new operational prototype of Mercator (french Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment contribution) is composed of a North Atlantic primitive equation ocean model OPA (Ocean Parallel Algorithm between 20°S and 70°N, [Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard and C. Lévy (1998). OPA8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manuel. Notes du pôle de modélisation IPSL. n°11: 91p]) and of a multivariate and multidata assimilation scheme [De Mey, P. and M. Benkiran (2002). “A multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolation method and its application in Mediterranean basin-scale circulation.” Ocean Forecasting : Conceptual basis and application, Pinardi, N., Springer Verlag.] This system has already given some significant improvements from previous Mercator configurations (M. Benkiran, personal communication). However some biases on ocean state still remain in the tropics where the reduced-order optimal interpolation scheme is suspected to be ill-parameted in the model forecast error. Indeed the guess error covariance matrix is decomposed into an error variance value and a spatio-temporal correlation function which are assumed to have some “good” properties (spatial homogeneity of the correlation function, constant ratio between signal and error variance). This study shows how we can use ensemble methods to validate these assumptions. We can see that the correlation function can reach negative values locally, mostly in regions of high variability contradictory with the homogeneous hypothesis. The reduced space used in the operational configuration is based on the signal seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). An empirical relationship between signal and error variance has been set and the correlation function is the same on every dimension of the reduced space. By projection of the estimated guess error variance onto the reduced space, we find a repartition of this quantity quite different to what was set in the system. The error statistics is found to be inhomogeneous compared to hypothesis made in the assimilation scheme. These two new parameters tested separately in the assimilation scheme gives significant improvements of the forecast and analysis results. This is particularly obvious in the tropics. But relationship between signal and error statistics (as assumed in the optimal interpolation) is found to be complex.     

Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model

A box model has been implemented to understand the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the Gulf of Riga. The large data sets collected within the international Gulf of Riga Project in 1993/1995 were used to validate the model. The comparison to data was useful in scaling up to the gulf-wide level and scrutinizing the conclusions based on short-term field surveys and experimental studies. The simulations indicate that the limiting role was passing from silicon to phosphorus to nitrogen over the seasons of organic production. However, on an annual scale, nutrient limitation was close to the “Redfield equilibrium”. Mass balance considerations, based on modeled coupled fluxes, disagree with the conclusions on low sediment denitrification and high phosphorus retention in the pelagic system, which were derived from isolated measurements.Nutrient budgets constructed with the model revealed the high buffer capacity of the Gulf of Riga. The nutrient residence times span a range from 6 years for N to 70 years for Si. The buffering arises from intensive internal recycling in the water body and by the bottom sediments. The budgets indicate that the Gulf retains about two-thirds of external nitrogen and silicon inputs, while phosphorus retention is only 10%.A slow response to external perturbations is demonstrated with numerical experiments run for 15 years under 50% reductions of terrestrial nutrient inputs. These experiments imply that the most effective is the N+P reduction scenario, which resulted in a 20% decrease of primary production after 12 years. A reduction of P resulted in only a 6% decrease of primary production; however, it yielded an 80% drop in the amount of nitrogen fixation.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

Simulation of the oil spill processes in the Sea of Japan with regional ocean circulation model

A simulation of the movement of spilled oil after the incident of the Russian tanker Nakhodka in the Sea of Japan, in January 1997, was performed by a particle tracking model incorporating advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect, the parameterization of oil evaporation, biodegradation, and beaching. The currents advecting spilled oil were defined by surface wind drift superposed on the three-dimensional ocean currents obtained by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model (GFDL MOM), which was forced by the climatological monthly mean meteorological data, or by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) daily meteorological data, and assimilated sea surface topography detected by satellite altimeter. A number of experiments with different parameters and situations showed that the wide geographical spread of oil observed is not explained by wind drift alone, and that including the simulated climatological currents gives better results. The combination of surface wind drift and daily ocean currents shows the best agreement between the model and observations except in some coastal areas. The daily meteorological effect on the ocean circulation model results in a stronger variability of currents that closely simulates some features of the nonlinear large-scale horizontal turbulent diffusion of oil. The effect of different parameterizations for the size distribution of model oil particles is discussed. Received for publication on July 26, 1999; accepted on Nov. 17, 1999     

Changing accessibility, dwelling price and the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities

In this paper we present an activities-location choice model with endogenous price which simulates, based on Expected Random Utility principle, the behaviour of several agents of the urban system (e.g. the workers distinguished by income, the firms by economic sector) to estimate the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities within the study area as well as the impact of differential changes in accessibility on the dwelling price. The study area for this research is the metropolitan area of Napoli (South Italy), for which we show the results of the model estimation and the results of a “backcasting” analysis.     

Ability of a “minimum” microbial food web model to reproduce response patterns observed in mesocosms manipulated with N and P, glucose, and Si

We compared an idealised mathematical model of the lower part of the pelagic food web to experimental data from a mesocosm experiment in which the supplies of mineral nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous), bioavailable dissolved organic carbon (BDOC, as glucose), and silicate were manipulated. The central hypothesis of the experiment was that bacterial consumption of BDOC depends on whether the growth rate of heterotrophic bacteria is limited by organic-C or by mineral nutrients. In previous work, this hypothesis was examined qualitatively using a conceptual food web model. Here we explore the extent to which a “simplest possible” mathematical version of this conceptual model can reproduce the observed dynamics. The model combines algal–bacterial competition for mineral nutrients (phosphorous) and accounts for alternative limitation of bacterial and diatom growth rates by organic carbon and by silicate, respectively. Due to a slower succession in the diatom–copepod, compared to the flagellate–ciliate link, silicate availability increases the magnitude and extends the duration of phytoplankton blooms induced by mineral nutrient addition. As a result, Si interferes negatively with bacterial consumption of BDOC consumption by increasing and prolonging algal–bacterial competition for mineral nutrients. In order to reproduce the difference in primary production between Si and non-Si amended treatments, we had to assume a carbon overflow mechanism in diatom C-fixation. This model satisfactorily reproduced central features observed in the mesocosm experiment, including the dynamics of glucose consumption, algal, bacterial, and mesozooplankton biomass. While the parameter set chosen allows the model to reproduce the pattern seen in bacterial production, we were not able to find a single set of parameters that simultaneously reproduces both the level and the pattern observed for bacterial production. Profound changes in bacterial morphology and stoichiometry were reported in glucose-amended mesocosms. Our “simplest possible” model with one bacterial population with fixed stoichiometry cannot reproduce this, and we suggest that a more elaborate representation of the bacterial community is required for more accurate reproduction of bacterial production.     

真空预压法地下水位变化室内试验研究

采用简化模型,通过改变模型开口处土工布的渗透系数,对真空预压加固软基过程中加固区地下水位的变化情况进行室内试验模拟,得到真空预压过程中地下水位下降的结论.同时拟合试验数据得到H-(-1gK)曲线,可知土体的渗透系数越小,加固区水位下降值越大.试验表明:真空预压加固软基时应考虑周边地下水对加固区域的补给,并需对加固区周边密封设计制定出新的标准.     

Topological constraints on the dynamics of wasp-waist ecosystems

Small pelagic fish species like anchovy or sardines are of high ecological and economical importance. As marine food webs are fished down, these small pelagics tend to be more exploited and overfished. It is not yet very well known what the possible effects of their collapse can be, therefore there is an urgent need to outline a theoretical framework for understanding their dynamics. These fish occupy very special position in food webs, ensuring energy transfer between species lower and higher levels, while forming narrow “wasp-waists” poor in number of species (but very abundant). Our purpose was to quantify the interaction structure of model food webs of equal complexity but different levels of “wasp-waistedness”. We analysed the topological properties of the webs by characterising every direct and indirect interactions between individual species, as well as by assessing the relative positional importance of each species in each web. We found that (1) the shorter the interaction pathways considered, the weaker the predictive power of node degree for positional importance, (2) the importance of species varies more in wasp-waist food webs, (3) if longer indirect chain effects are considered, indirect effects can well be stronger than direct ones, (4) interactions between coexisting wasp-waist species are stronger than the average, and (5) the “self-regulatory” looping effects are also stronger for wasp-waist species. Based on the topological properties of the networks, our results describe constraints acting on the dynamical behaviour of wasp-waist ecosystems. We give explanations, from this viewpoint, for regime shifts in which one WW species replaces another, and for the unpredictable dynamics of these fish stocks. From a marine conservation viewpoint, we illustrate that as the abundance of wasp-waist species decreases, the architecture of energy flows becomes highly vulnerable and unreliable. We provide an approach for quantifying these structural changes.     

Parameterization of air–sea gas fluxes at extreme wind speeds

Air–sea flux measurements of O₂ and N₂ obtained during Hurricane Frances in September 2004 [D'Asaro, E. A. and McNeil, C. L., 2006. Measurements of air–sea gas exchange at extreme wind speeds. Journal Marine Systems, this edition.] using air-deployed neutrally buoyant floats reveal the first evidence of a new regime of air–sea gas transfer occurring at wind speeds in excess of 35 m s^− 1. In this regime, plumes of bubbles 1 mm and smaller in size are transported down from near the surface of the ocean to greater depths by vertical turbulent currents with speeds up to 20−30 cm s^− 1. These bubble plumes mostly dissolve before reaching a depth of approximately 20 m as a result of hydrostatic compression. Injection of air into the ocean by this mechanism results in the invasion of gases in proportion to their tropospheric molar gas ratios, and further supersaturation of less soluble gases. A new formulation for air–sea fluxes of weakly soluble gases as a function of wind speed is proposed to extend existing formulations [Woolf, D.K, 1997. Bubbles and their role in gas exchange. In: Liss, P.S., and Duce, R.A., (Eds.), The Sea Surface and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 173–205.] to span the entire natural range of wind speeds over the open ocean, which includes hurricanes. The new formulation has separate contributions to air–sea gas flux from: 1) non-supersaturating near-surface equilibration processes, which include direct transfer associated with the air–sea interface and ventilation associated with surface wave breaking; 2) partial dissolution of bubbles smaller than 1 mm that mix into the ocean via turbulence; and 3) complete dissolution of bubbles of up to 1 mm in size via subduction of bubble plumes. The model can be simplified by combining “surface equilibration” terms that allow exchange of gases into and out of the ocean, and “gas injection” terms that only allow gas to enter the ocean. The model was tested against the Hurricane Frances data set. Although all the model parameters cannot be determined uniquely, some features are clear. The fluxes due to the surface equilibration terms, estimated both from data and from model inversions, increase rapidly at high wind speed but are still far below those predicted using the cubic parameterization of Wanninkhof and McGillis [Wannikhof, R. and McGillis, W.R., 1999. A cubic relationship between air–sea CO₂ exchange and wind speed. Geophysical Research Letters, 26:1889–1892.] at high wind speed. The fluxes due to gas injection terms increase with wind speed even more rapidly, causing bubble injection to dominate at the highest wind speeds.     

Methodology for the simulation of a ship's damage stability and ultimate strength conditions following a collision

This paper presents a methodology called SHARC developed for the simulation and analysis of a ship's damage stability and ULS conditions following a collision. SHARC combines three types of methods: advanced nonlinear finite element simulations that simulate the collision scenario, a dynamic damage stability simulation tool called SIMCAP, and a modified Smith method for the ULS analysis of a collision-damaged ship structure. The novelty of the presented methodology is that it can be used for real-time simulations to study the ingress of water through the damage opening of a struck vessel and how it affects the ship's stability, structural integrity (ULS) and survival capability against, e.g., capsizing. The results for an intact and a damaged oil tanker under noncorroded and corroded structural conditions and various sea states are presented to demonstrate the features of SHARC.     

淤泥质海底航道边坡失稳程度评估与预测

淤泥质海底航道边坡稳定性对于航道安全运行至关重要。由于航道边坡失稳滑塌具有不确定性,无法对其失稳程度进行预测评估,严重影响过往船只安全和航道管理维护。基于工程试验模拟的方式获取航道边坡失稳滑塌全周期声纹图像,通过分析声纹图像能量变化将其失稳过程划分为:非常稳定、稳定、不稳定、极不稳定、滑塌5个阶段。基于Gabor变换提取各阶段声纹图像特征,利用离散余弦变换进行特征降维,将降维后的声纹图像特征输入Fisher函数中构建失稳程度评估预测模型。结果表明:将待评估声纹图像样本特征输入到预测模型中,识别正确率达到90%。因此,基于Gabor特征构建Fisher模型进行淤泥质海底航道边坡失稳程度评估预测是可行的,对研究航道边坡稳定性具有重要意义。