Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work

This paper describes the development of a mode choice model for the journey to work with special emphasis on the propensity to cycle. The model combines Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) data to form a very large and comprehensive model. RP data from the National Travel Survey was combined with a specially commissioned RP survey. A number of SP surveys were also undertaken to examine the effects of different types of en-route and trip end cycle facilities and financial measures to encourage cycling.The development of the model is described in detail. The model was used to forecast trends in urban commuting shares over time and to predict the impacts of different measures to encourage cycling. Of the en-route cycle facilities, a completely segregated cycleway was forecast to have the greatest impact, but even the unfeasible scenario of universal provision of such facilities would only result in a 55% increase in cycling and a slight reduction in car commuting. Payments for cycling to work were found to be highly effective with a £2 daily payment almost doubling the level of cycling. The most effective policy would combine improvements in en-route facilities, a daily payment to cycle to work and comprehensive trip end facilities and this would also have a significant impact on car commuting.     

Street characteristics to encourage children to walk

An experiment tested whether physical disorder affected low to moderate income African–American children’s choice of street to walk on and their parents’ choice of a street for them to walk on. The experiment used an innovative desktop simulation in which 32 fourth and fifth grade African–American children and 30 parents viewed and explored pairs of virtual walk-through streets manipulated on disorder (across three contexts and two other street and sidewalk characteristics) and picked from each pair the one to walk on (child) or for the child to walk on (parent). Each participant was asked to report the reasons for the choices. The analysis revealed that children and their parents were more likely to walk (or have the child walk) on streets lower in disorder. Reported reasons for choices confirmed the importance of physical disorder in affecting walking choices. Low-cost improvements in order may make streets more desirable for recreational walking.     

How to obtain a healthy journey to school

Danish children walk and cycle a lot and at the same time have one of the best child road safety records in the western part of world. Based on several studies, the paper describes how Denmark has obtained a good child road safety and why Danish children choose to walk and cycle. Child road safety has predominantly been improved due to higher seat belt use and many implemented local safety measures such as campaigns and physical safe routes to school projects. It is mostly safe routes to school projects that include speed reducing measures and signalisation of junctions that are successful. The distance from home to school is an important factor in children’s transport mode choice. Since about half of Danish children have less than 1.5 km to school the decentralised school structure with many fairly small schools is an important reason to the many walking and bicycle journeys. Road design and motorised traffic volumes do influence children’s mode choice, but to a rather limited extent.     

Are consumers willing to pay to let cars drive for them? Analyzing response to autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicles use sensing and communication technologies to navigate safely and efficiently with little or no input from the driver. These driverless technologies will create an unprecedented revolution in how people move, and policymakers will need appropriate tools to plan for and analyze the large impacts of novel navigation systems. In this paper we derive semiparametric estimates of the willingness to pay for automation. We use data from a nationwide online panel of 1260 individuals who answered a vehicle-purchase discrete choice experiment focused on energy efficiency and autonomous features. Several models were estimated with the choice microdata, including a conditional logit with deterministic consumer heterogeneity, a parametric random parameter logit, and a semiparametric random parameter logit. We draw three key results from our analysis. First, we find that the average household is willing to pay a significant amount for automation: about $3500 for partial automation and $4900 for full automation. Second, we estimate substantial heterogeneity in preferences for automation, where a significant share of the sample is willing to pay above $10,000 for full automation technology while many are not willing to pay any positive amount for the technology. Third, our semiparametric random parameter logit estimates suggest that the demand for automation is split approximately evenly between high, modest and no demand, highlighting the importance of modeling flexible preferences for emerging vehicle technology.     

Introducing specific power to bicycles and motorcycles: Application to electric mobility

Electric bicycles and motorcycles have emerged as a possible way of improving the transportation system sustainability. This work’s aim was to quantify the energy consumption, the trip travel and the driving dynamics on specific routes in Lisbon, Portugal. Six electric and conventional bicycles and motorcycles were monitored, and a methodology to quantify the power required in each driving second was developed: Motorcycle and Bicycle Specific Power (MSP and BSP respectively). MSP and BSP allows characterizing energy consumption rates based on on-road data and to define real-world operation patterns (driving power distribution), as well as to benchmark the different propulsion technologies under the same baseline of specific power. For negative MSP and BSP modes, the conventional and the electric motorcycles and bicycles demonstrated a similar pattern. However, their behavior was different for positive modes, since electric technologies allow reaching higher power conditions. The methodology developed estimates accurately the energy consumption (average deviation of −0.19 ± 6.76% for motorcycles and of 1.41 ± 8.91% for bicycles). The MSP and BSP methodologies were tested in 2 Lisbon routes. For the electric motorcycle an increase in trip time (+36%) was observed when compared to the conventional one, while for the electric bicycle a 9.5% decrease was verified when compared to the conventional one. The Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) energy consumption for motorcycles was reduced by 61% when shifting to electric mobility, while a 30% Well-to-Wheel (WTW) reduction is obtained. For the electric bicycles, an additional energy use is quantified due to the battery electricity consumption.     

Trip chaining as a barrier to the propensity to use public transport

Trip chaining is a growing phenomenon in travel and activity behaviour. Individuals increasingly seek out opportunities to minimise the amount of travel required as part of activity fulfilment, given the competing demands on time budgets and their valuation of travel time savings. This search for ways of fulfilling (more) activities with less travel input has produced a number of responses, one of which is trip chaining. A particularly important policy implication of trip chaining is the potential barrier it creates in attracting car users to switch to public transport. This paper seeks to improve our understanding of trip chaining as a barrier to public transport use. A series of discrete choice models are estimated to identify the role that socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households have on the propensity to undertake trip chains of varying degrees of simplicity/complexity that involve use of the car or public transport with an embedded commuting or non-commuting primary purpose. Multinomial logit, nested logit and random parameter logit models are developed and contrasted to establish the gains in relaxing the strict conditions of the multinomial logit model.     

Alterations to the transyt-7F model to represent near-side transit stops

Transit vehicles stopping to load/unload passengers on-line at a signalized intersection can obstruct the flow of other vehicles. The TRANSYT model ignores the delay to other traffic caused by this loading/unloading process. This can cause TRANSYT to use incorrect flow profiles, resulting in signal timings that cater to these profiles rather than the actual ones. This paper describes a new model for representing near-side transit stops in lanes shared by public transit and private vehicles, and its implementation into the TRANSYT-7F program. The results of an initial application of the proposed model are also described. The proposed model, which is a deterministic simulation model, is able to represent the effect of near-side transit stops on the other traffic; this representation covers both total and partial blockage of the approaches during the transit loading. The procedure has been incorporated into the TRANSYT-7F program. This allows appropriate representation of the adverse effects of transit loading on-line during a green phase. It thus encourages the TRANSYT optimizer to push transit loading to the red phases.     

Learning to use transit services: adapting to unfamiliar transit travel

Transportation - Travel behavior change has become an area of interest in many cities around the world, particularly to encourage people to change from car use to transit use. Previous research...     

A dynamic modeling approach to highway sustainability: Strategies to reduce overall impact

The need for sustainable development is increasing as the industrial and service activities keep putting such a strain on the natural functions of the Earth, thus the ability of the planet’s to sustain future generations. Since most of the industrial and service activities are provided via transportation, it is one of the most crucial elements of sustainable development. In this paper, US highway system sustainability problem is studied. System dynamics modeling approach is employed due to the causal relationships and feedback loops that are observed in the problem structure. The reference mode is considered as the increasing CO₂ emission trend. The objective is to meet the Liberman and Warner Climate Act’s targets by 2050. Three potential strategies for policy making are tested with the developed dynamic simulation: fuel efficiency, public transportation and electric vehicle usage. The results indicate that hybrid implementation of individual policies has a crucial impact on the success of policy making.     

新阀门养护技术在川气东送管道中的应用

根据国内天然气长输管道投产运行的经验,很多阀门在投产后出现不同程度的泄漏现象。为了保证安装的阀门在投产运行后稳定运行,防止发生阀门内漏、外漏等现象,川气东送管道在工程建设中引进阀门养护作业技术,在阀门安装、试压、试运行3个阶段进行有效的养护作业,确保了管线投产时所有阀门状态良好,一次试运行成功。阀门养护作业有效地延长了阀门的使用周期,对于保障管线的平稳运行,有效防范管道运行风险,具有十分重要的意义。     

Sentiment analysis of popular-music references to automobiles, 1950s to 2010s

In recent years, there has been a scholarly debate regarding the decrease in automobile-related mobility indicators (car ownership, driving license holding, VMT, etc.). Broadly speaking, two theories have been put forward to explain this trend: (1) economic factors whose impacts are well-understood in principle, but whose occurrence among young adults as a demographic sub-group had been overlooked, and (2) less well-understood shifts in cultural mores, values and sentiment towards the automobile. This second theory is devilishly difficult to study, due primarily to limitations in standard data resources such as the National Household Travel Survey and international peer datasets. In this study we first compiled a database of lyrics to popular music songs from 1956 to 2015 (defined by inclusion in the annual “top 40”), and subsequently identified references to automobiles within this corpus. We then evaluated whether there is support for theory #2 above within popular music, by looking at changes from the 1950s to the 2010s. We demonstrate that the frequency of references to automobility tended for many years to increase over time, however there has more recently been a decline after the late 2000s (decade). In terms of the sentiment of popular music lyrics that reference automobiles, our results are mixed as to whether the references are becoming increasingly positive or negative (machine analysis suggests increasing negativity, while human analysis did not find a significant association), however a consistent observation is that sentiment of automobile references have over time become more positive relative to sentiment of song lyrics overall. We also show that sentiment towards automobile references differs systematically by genre, e.g. automobile references within ‘Rock’ lyrics are in general more negative than similar references to cars in other music genres). The data generated on this project have been archived and made available open access for use by future researchers; details are in the full paper.

     

听哲学家讲授成功的秘诀

相信自己是一只雄鹰 一个人在高山之巅的鹰巢里抓到一只幼鹰,他把幼鹰带回家养在鸡笼里.这只幼鹰和鸡一起啄食、嬉闹和休息.它以为自己是一只鸡.     

保证明挖隧道防水效果应注意的几个问题

隧道渗漏往往带来结构损坏、设备腐蚀、影响外观和危害运营安全,甚至造成地面建筑物的不均匀沉降,因此保证明挖隧道的防水效果非常重要。文章从施工实践中总结出了保证明挖隧道防水效果应注意的几个问题,对类似工程具有借鉴作用。     

Solutions to the optimal network design problem with shipments related to transportation cost

Two versions of an optimal network design problem with shipments proportional to transportation costs are formulated. Extensions of an algorithm developed in prior research for solving these problems are proposed and tested. The performance of the algorithms is found to improve substantially as the dependence of shipments on costs is increased. Moreover, the optimal solutions obtained are unexpectedly robust with respect to a wide range of transportation cost assumptions. These findings could have important computational and policy implications if applicable to larger networks.     

Using nonparametrics to specify a model to measure the value of travel time

Using a range of nonparametric methods, the paper examines the specification of a model to evaluate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for travel time changes from binomial choice data from a simple time–cost trading experiment. The analysis favours a model with random WTP as the only source of randomness over a model with fixed WTP which is linear in time and cost and has an additive random error term. Results further indicate that the distribution of log WTP can be described as a sum of a linear index fixing the location of the log WTP distribution and an independent random variable representing unobserved heterogeneity. This formulation is useful for parametric modelling. The index indicates that the WTP varies systematically with income and other individual characteristics. The WTP varies also with the time difference presented in the experiment which is in contradiction of standard utility theory.     

将弯管敷设变更为弹性敷设的情况分析

根据输油工况和管线沿途的地质、土壤等状况,广泛采用管材多极变壁厚进行管线敷设,管线敷设还尽可能采用弹性敷设和冷弯弯管敷设,以便减少固定墩的数量。为保证焊接质量和管材强度,在管线上允许加装30°、45°、60°曲率半径大于5DN的3种热煨弯头与冷弯管（曲率半径=40DN）相配合,以适应管线走向所需要的转角。文中分析了3种敷设,选出最佳的敷设方案以降低成本。     

Evaluating marginal improvements to a transport network: An application to the Santiago underground

This paper describes a simplified methodology designed for quick investment appraisal of improvements to a transport network, and discusses its limitations and advantages particularly in the context of a developing country. The approach basically considers:

- a method to define the total population (relevant origin-destination pairs) affected by the project

- the selection of a low-cost background model to represent transport demand on a network at an aggregate level

- the choice of a suitable marginal demand model (in this case a discrete mode choice model) capable of providing the required sensitivity and accuracy to model the project

- the estimation of the marginal demand due to the project during all the years of the study horizon, and

- a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the decision recommended using these two models.

Finally, the paper summarises the results of applying the methodology to the case of an extension to the Santiago underground; it was found that the project has a high social rate of return (almost 20 per cent). However, from the point of view of a private evaluation, it can cover its operating costs only.     

Approaches to dynamic transport planning

Dynamic transport planning refers to the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date of the construction or improvement of transport facilities. This analysis may also include consideration of stage construction or progressive improvements in quality and/or capacity over time, beginning from some relatively low standard. A transport facility is defined as a vehicle (e.g., automobile, airplane) or a supporting facility (e.g., highway, port).There appears at present to be a serious lack of any truly comprehensive evaluation of the essentials of the problem of choice of implementation date. It is the intent of the ensuing presentation to help to rectify that situation by introducing new concepts which structure the timing problem. The concepts are based on a suggested classification of future traffic and definitions of independent and indivisible facilities. In addition, volume of traffic and benefits of a transport facility are recognized to be dependent on calendar time and the facility's age.Presently, no uniform theoretical framework exists for establishing the optimal time for constructing new facilities or improving existing ones. A framework based on the aforementioned concepts is introduced. It distinguishes between the phasing of projects through time in the absence of budget constraints and this phasing in the presence of such restrictions. The specific procedures suggested in this paper for the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date apply to any individual transport facility and tend to unify the concepts involved in dynamic transport planning.The article concludes with a survey of current approaches to dynamic transport planning and discusses these in the light of the above framework.The study was supported by the Urban Mass Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.     

Using census aggregates to proxy for household characteristics: an application to vehicle ownership

Traditionally, researchers studying transportation choice have used data either acquired from household surveys or broad, region-wide aggregates. At the disaggregate level, researchers usually do not have access to important variables or observations. This study investigates the potential usefulness of a proxy approach to modeling discrete choice vehicle ownership: substituting narrow area-based aggregate proxies for missing micro-level explanatory variables by accessing large, publicly maintained datasets. We use data from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) and the contemporaneous U.S. Census file to compare three models of vehicle ownership, drawing area-wide proxies from increasing levels of aggregation. The models with proxies are compared with a parallel model that uses only survey data. The results indicate that the proxy models are preferred in terms of model selection criteria, and predict vehicle ownership as well or better than the survey model. Parameter values produced by the proxy method effectively approximate those returned by household survey models in terms of coefficient sign and significance, particularly when the aggregate variables are representative of their household-level counterparts. The proxy model with the narrowest level of aggregation achieved the best fit, coefficient precision, and percentage of correct prediction.