交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的影响评价

《交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的影响评价》项目在借鉴国内外研究成果和广泛资料调研的基础上,结合专家群组咨询、理论分析、数理统计与检验等手段,构建了交通科技项目评价指标体系,从微观和宏观层面分析了"十五"西部交通建设科技项目的实施效果,完成了交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的综合影响评价。本篇对项目的主要研究成果和创新点进行了介绍,提出了相应的建议,为我国西部地区交通基础设施建设提供参考依据。     

Book review

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brog, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people and thus that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.     

Man and his transport behaviour Part 4. Fare strategies for public transport—a problem outline

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brög, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people, and thus, that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.

Parts 1–3 appeared in Transport Reviews, 4, 99–113, 173–212, 273–298.     

Multi-criteria impacts assessment for ranking highway projects in Northwest Spain

This paper presents a multi-criteria model to rank highway projects by predicting their combined potential impact on regional population, economy, environment, territory and mobility. A detailed study of initial conditions enable the selection of functional units of study and the identification of homogenous units within the region, playing a relevant role into the process. Ranking is based on the achievement of both efficiency and cohesion objectives at a regional level. The model is tested by analyzing the Spanish Transport Infrastructure Master Plan (PEIT) for the non-central area of Northwest Spain. Application of impact assessment shows that the construction of infrastructures has selective effects in the area according to the homogenous groups. Potential development was boosted in one of the zone groups, whereas in others, at best, there was a reduction in their regressive tendency. Finally, the model is a dynamic support tool that could be adapted to several planning policies only when the ranking criterion is well-justified.     

One city,three models: comparison of land‐use/transport policy simulation models for Dortmund

The paper reports on simulation experiments conducted by the International Study Group on Land‐Use/Transport Interaction (ISGLUTI) for the metropolitan region of Dortmund in the Federal Republic of Germany. Three land‐use/transport simulation models were applied to the Dortmund region: the DORTMUND model developed at the University of Dortmund, the LILT model being used at University College London and the MEPLAN package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners in Cambridge. The three models are briefly characterized and their ex‐post forecasts are compared with the actual development of the region. The final section of the paper compares how the three models respond to a common set of assumptions and policies from the fields of land‐use control, traffic management and transport investment. The differences in model response give insights into the validity of the theoretical foundations and internal structure of the models.     

Transport education in Switzerland

Abstract

Transport companies are finding themselves compelled to attach growing importance to the education and further education of their staff in the face of transport's increasing complexity, of its increased market‐economic thinking where competition takes the place of collective economic thinking and of financial constraints.

The necessity for increased education and further education of the managerial staff of the transport companies has also led to a two‐fold division of this task in Switzerland: on the one side the academic education in universities, on the other the further education of the management staff by the transport companies.

The extent of education and research done on “transport” varies in Swiss universities. Special courses are given at the St. Gall Graduate School of Economics, Business and Public Administration in transport economics and at the Technical Universities of Zürich and Lausanne in transport engineering.

Special further education in transport management is given by Swissair and Swiss Federal Railways.     

On the income elasticity of the value of travel time

Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13 year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time.     

On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal

In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.     

Highway and transportation planning in England

This article presents an overview of highway and transportation planning in England. It covers the division of responsibilities between central and local government; the organisation of the Department of Transport; the planning, financing and implementation of road schemes, both local and national. A very brief review of transport legislation is included.NOTE: This paper was printed before the UK General Election of May 1979. The Department of Transport is now responsible to the Minister of Transport. The Minister has similar responsibilities to those previously exercised by the Secretary of State for Transport as referred to in this paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the writer and are not necessarily those of the Department of Transport.     

Income effects,cost damping and the value of time: theoretical properties embedded within practical travel choice models

Mackie et al. (Values of travel time savings in the UK. Report to Department for Transport. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds & John Bates Services, Leeds and Abingdon, 2003) proposed an identity relating the value of time (VoT) for commute and leisure travel to income and travel cost, reporting the prevalence of ‘cost damping’ (i.e. the phenomenon where VoT increases as travel cost increases). This identity (or a variant thereof) has been adopted within official methods for estimating VoT in the UK, Switzerland and The Netherlands. The present paper shows that Mackie et al.’s identity: (i) implies linear preferences, not strictly convex preferences as reported by Mackie et al.; (ii) complies with homogeneity and symmetry by construction; (iii) complies with adding-up if and only if VoT is unit elastic with respect to income; (iv) complies with negativity if VoT is unit elastic or greater with respect to income; (v) violates both adding-up and negativity in the case of the 2003 UK national VoT study. We propose alternative identities which comply with adding-up and homogeneity by construction, and offer comparable fit to Mackie et al.’s identity on the UK VoT dataset. We also find that the imposition of adding-up and negativity on Mackie et al.’s identity, through appropriate constraint on model estimation, leads to an increase of around 20% in valuations from the 2003 UK dataset.     

关于我国内河船舶污染强制责任保险限额的研究Ⅱ——适用于我国内河船舶污染强制保险责任限额建议

本文是交通运输部海事科技项目《内河船舶污染事故损害赔偿机制》的研究成果。为建立适合我国国情的内河船舶污染强制责任保险限额的制定方法,本文通过分析国内外船舶污染责任保险限额设定内容、设定方式和设定依据,明确其设定思路并分析其优缺点,进一步确定我国内河船舶污染责任保险限额的法律依据,比较责任限额的科学设置方法。在"限额设置区间、区间递进方式、限额变动、起始吨位、使用货币、责任限额的确定方式、对责任限制的免除条件、法律基础"等方面进行了理论创新,提出了详细的可操作性设置建议。     

Assessment of Cross‐Border Spillover Effects of National Transport Infrastructure Plans: An Accessibility Approach

Abstract

Traditional transport infrastructure assessment methodologies rarely include the full range of strategic benefits for the transportation system. One of these benefits is the contribution to cross‐border integration, critical for the European integration process. However, this is a key issue in strategic planning and decision‐making processes, as its inclusion may increase the probability of large‐scale transport infrastructure projects being funded. This paper presents a methodology for the measurement of the contribution of transport infrastructure plans to European integration. The methodology is based on the measurement of the improvement in network efficiency in cross‐border regions of neighbouring countries, via accessibility calculations in a Geographical Information System support. The methodology was tested by applying it to the ambitious road and rail network extensions included in the Spanish Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan (PEIT) 2005–2020. The results show significant and important network efficiency improvements of the PEIT outside the Spanish border. For the road mode, while the Spanish average accessibility improvement accounts for 2.6%, average improvements in cross‐border regions of France and Portugal are of 1.8%. And for the rail mode, the corresponding Spanish value is 34.5%, whereas in neighbouring regions it accounts for 20.2%. These results stress the significant importance of this strategic benefit and the consequent need for its inclusion in strategic planning processes. Finally, the paper identifies the potential of the methodology when applied at different administrative levels, such as the local or state levels.     

Transport and nation‐state governments worldwide: a further review

The review undertaken in this Paper shows how, in 1984, governments of nation‐states of the world deal with the important function of Transport. In all 115 countries are included and, with the information now given, it is possible to compare the situation with 1981–82, and also have a current global view of affairs affecting Transport as managed by governments. Such a review is part of the service which Transport Reviews provides for its readers. It is hoped to conduct a further review in 1988.     

More gray hair—but for whom? Scenario-based simulations of elderly activity travel patterns in 2020

This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind.

Man and his transport behaviour. Part 3a Metamorphosis of transport behaviour: the Indian context

Passenger Transport: Planning for Radical Change. Edited by J. D. Carr. (Gower: Aldershot.) [Pp. 224.] £27.50. ISBN 0 566 05183 4.

Geografia Transportu Polski. Transport Geography of Poland (in Polish). Second edition. By T. Lijewski. (Panstwowe Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, 1986.) [Pp. 286.] Z1.240. ISBN 83 208 0474 4.

Future Transport Policy. By K. J. Button and D. Gillingwater. (London: Croom Helm, 1986.) [Pp. 224.] £27.50. ISBN 0 7099 3225 1.     

Taxation and revenue policies for future federal highway programs

In a word of tight budgets and growing investment needs, the question of how highways of national significance will be financed in the future has never been more important. This paper provides a background for addressing this question by tracing the development of current Federal highway tax and revenue policies, describing recent trends in Federal highway finance, and discussing several limitations on the productivity of existing Federal highway revenue sources. Principles of taxation that can be used to guide the search for future revenue sources are then described, current Federal highway user fees are reviewed within the context of those principles, and the additional revenue potential of the existing highway tax structure is discussed. Potential alternative sources of highway revenue are then discussed and selected alternative funding mechanisms are described.     

Competition and ownership in land passenger transport: The 7th International Conference

This is the fourth time that Transport Reviews has published a summary of the workshop sessions from the Thredbo Conference. The intention is to disseminate more widely the main findings and conclusions from these sessions at this important international conference. Interested readers are also encouraged to view the full papers presented at the Institute of Transport Studies, University of Sydney website.     

Book review

Modern Transport Geography. Edited by R. S. Hoyle and R. D. Knowles on behalf of the Transport Geography Study Group of the Institute of British Geographers. (London: Belhaven, 1992.) [Pp.276.] £15–99 (Paperback). ISBN 1 852 93158 2; £45·00 (Hardback). ISBN 1 852 93157 4.     

Planning for economic and environmental resilience

Climate protection will require major reductions in GHG emissions from all sectors of the economy, including the transportation sector. Slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will be necessary for reducing transportation GHG emissions, even with major breakthroughs in vehicle technologies and low-carbon fuels (Winkelman et al., 2009). The Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) supports market-based policy approaches that minimize costs and maximize benefits. Our research indicates that significant GHG reductions can be achieved through smart growth and travel efficiency measures that increase accessibility, improve travel choices and make optimum use of existing infrastructure. Moreover, we find such measures can deliver compelling economic benefits, including avoided infrastructure costs, leveraged private investment, increased local tax revenues and consumer vehicle ownership and operating cost savings (Winkelman et al., 2009).As a society, what we build – where and how – has a tremendous impact on our carbon footprint, from building design to transportation infrastructure and land-use patterns. The empirical and modeling evidence is clear – people drive less in locations with efficient land use patterns, high quality travel choices and reinforcing policies and incentives (Ewing et al., 2008). It is also clear that there is growing and unmet market demand for walkable communities, reinforced by demographic shifts and higher fuel prices (Leinberger, 2006, Nelson, 2007). Transportation policy in the United States must rise to meet this demand for more travel choices and more livable communities.The academic, ideological and political debates about the level of GHG reductions and penetration rates that can or should be achieved via smart growth and pricing on the one hand, or measures such as ‘eco-driving’ and signal optimization on the other, have served their purpose: we know which policies are ‘directionally correct’ – policies that reduce GHG emissions even though we may not know the scope of those reductions. Now is the time to implement directionally correct policies, assess what works best where, and refine policy based on the results. It is a framework that CCAP calls “Do. Measure. Learn.”The Federal government is poised to spend $500 billion on transportation (Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 2009). CCAP encourages Congress to “Ask the Climate Question” – will our transportation investments help reduce GHG emissions or exacerbate the problem? Will they help increase our resilience to climate change impacts or increase our vulnerability? And, while we’re at it, will our investment foster energy security, livable communities and a vibrant economy? Federal transportation and climate policies should empower communities to implement locally-determined travel efficiency solutions by providing appropriate funding, tools and technical support.