Should I stay or should I go? Investigating route switching behavior from revealed preferences data

A large variety of factors influence the route choice decisions of road users, and modelers consider these factors within the perceived utility that road users are assumed to maximize. However, this perceived utility may be different even for the same origin–destination pair and this leads road users to choose different routes for different trips. In this study, we focus on this particular phenomenon of route switching behavior by estimating discrete choice models with the aim of understanding the key factors at its foundation. The estimated route choice models account for route characteristics, socio-economic information, activity based data, inertial mechanism and learning effects, and they are applied to revealed preference data consisting of 677 actual day by day route choices (referred to 77 road users) collected by GPS in Cagliari (Italy). Route switching models were estimated with both fixed and random coefficient models. The model estimation results show that the variables referred to habit and learning have an important relevance on explaining the route switching phenomenon. Specifically, the higher is the travel habit, the less is the propensity of the road users to switch their route. Moreover, the learning effect shows that the accumulation of past experiences has more influence on the choice than the most recent ones.

     

Development of transitioned vertical curve I Properties

Introducing spiral curves before and after horizontal circular curves has been widely accepted to enhance traffic safety, highway esthetics, sight distance, and driver comfort. Though, vertical curves are still designed as parabolic curves that are connected directly to the tangent (without transitions). In this paper, a cubic polynomial is used to develop a vertical transition curve before and after the parabolic vertical curve. The resulting curve, called transitioned vertical curve, consists of transition-parabolic-transition segments. Detailed mathematical formulation and derivation of the instantaneous elevation, grade, rate of curvature, and offset from the first tangent at any point are presented. The highest (or lowest) point on a transitioned crest (or sag) vertical curve, where the instantaneous grade equals 0, is determined as it is of particular importance in highway drainage design. The minimum length of a transition curve is derived based on the criterion of driver comfort. In addition, guidelines are provided to identify the conditions where the drainage of surface water on transitioned curves can be a concern. Finally, the layout of the transitioned vertical curve is described and illustrated using two numerical examples. The new transitioned vertical curve, which exhibits striking similarities to the spiraled horizontal curve, should enhance the design of highway vertical alignments.     

I. intercity passenger transportation: energy consumption characteristics

The objective of this paper is to report energy consumption characteristics of Canadian intercity travel modes from a total energy viewpoint. For line haul as well as terminal access/egress operations, both the direct energy consumed for vehicle propulsion and the indirect energy required for the provision of intercity transportation services are investigated. In addition to a discussion of methods of estimating energy efficiency, factors affecting modal energy consumption are identified and the energy efficiency impact of technical developments are assessed. Energy efficiency information reported here is believed to be essential for planning, policy and conservation research at the disaggregated level.     

Prediction of intercity freight flows,I: Theory

This paper presents the conceptual framework for a predictive network equilibrium model of a freight transportation system in which the generation, distribution, modal split and assignment of freight movements are performed simultaneously. A neoclassical profit maximization model is stated for the supply-side of the transportation market, the demand-side is represented by a spatial price equilibrium model, and the economic mechanism which integrates the supply and demand submodels is described. The theoretical limitations imposed on the model by the requirement that it be capable of solving large-scale problems are also addressed.     

Dynamic blocking for railyards: Part I. Homogeneous traffic

This paper and its companion present a study of railroad classification yard strategies that allow for blocks of destinations to be assigned to classification tracks in different ways, depending on the time of day, week or month. With the same number of tracks, more classifications can be handled by this method. The paper examines homogeneous traffic; that is, traffic patterns where all blocks have the same amount of traffic, where cars for all blocks depart equally frequently from the yard and where the overall traffic flow does not change with time. The results represent the beginning of a better understanding of yard operations, which should be useful for designing new yards, planning expansions of existing ones and evaluating the impact of changes (planned and unplanned) on traffic patterns. The paper concentrates on two sorting strategies: sorting by train (perhaps the most commonly used strategy in the United States today), and triangular sorting. For both strategies, formulas are given for the minimum number of tracks, number of switches and for the total space requirements. For triangular sorting, the yard delay and total space depend on the time chosen between reswitches. These two measures of performance can be reduced if one is willing to accept a sorting effort slightly higher than minimum. The trade-off can be explored numerically. For sorting by train, yard delay and total space are not significantly affected by the sorting method; there is no such trade-off. It appears that sorting by train results in less work, delay and space requirements than triangular sorting, at least in most instances when either could be used. Triangular sorting, however, can be used when there are not enough tracks to allow sorting by train.     

Delphi opinion poll fuchan I

The cost of owning and driving a motorcar will rise sharply, owing to the safety vehicle, pollution, scarcer energy and other developments. This should lead to revised car ownership forecasts for the year 2000 in the developed countries. The paper describes an opinion poll held amongst Dutch transportation experts on the suppositions used in a set of cost scenarios. The poll is a simplified Delphi-method and has been carried out in this way in Holland for the first time. The results cause some changes in the original approaches; notably on the probability of automatic highways, taxes on scarce resources, lengthening of car life to 20 years and lowering of engine power. The article was written before the 1973 oil-crisis started.     

“I can do perfectly well without a car!”

This article presents the results of a study exploring travellers’ preferences for middle-distance travel using Q-methodology. Respondents rank-ordered 42 opinion statements regarding travel choice and motivations for travel in general and for car and public transport as alternative travel modes. By-person factor analysis revealed four distinct preference segments for middle-distance travel: (1) choice travellers with a preference for public transport, (2) deliberate-choice travellers, (3) choice travellers with car as dominant alternative, and (4) car-dependent travellers. These preference segments differ in terms of the levels of involvement and cognitive effort in travel decision making, the travel consideration-set and underlying motivations. The study showed that for most people there is more to travel than getting from point A to point B, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in middle-distance travel preferences. Policy implications for reducing the need for travel and promoting a modal shift from car to other travel modes are discussed.     

A problem of limited-access special lanes. Part I: Spatiotemporal studies of real freeway traffic

Most special-use freeway lanes in the US, whether reserved for carpools, toll-paying commuters or both, are physically separated from the adjacent regular-use lanes by some form of barrier. Vehicle movements in and out of a special lane of this type are permitted only at select access points along the route. The barrier at each select point might open for a distance of 400 m or so. Limiting access in this way is said to reduce the “turbulence” that might otherwise occur were the special lane not to have a barrier, such that vehicles could instead enter or exit that lane anywhere along its length.Yet, real freeway traffic studied in spatiotemporal fashion shows that access points are prone to become bottlenecks. The problem occurs when traffic in the regular lanes becomes dense, as commonly happens during a rush. Drivers then seek refuge in the special lane in greater numbers. Since the vehicular maneuvers through the access point are focused within a limited physical space, they can become disruptive and further degrade traffic. Degradation can occur both in the special lane and in the adjacent regular ones. The damage can be worse than when there is no barrier to limit special-lane ingress and egress.The problem is shown to be reproducible across sites and across days at each site. Policy implications are discussed. Select designs and policies to address the problem are thereafter explored in Part II of the paper using traffic simulation.     

Mobility and environment improvement of signalized networks through Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications

Traffic signals, even though crucial for safe operations of busy intersections, are one of the leading causes of travel delays in urban settings, as well as the reason why billions of gallons of fuel are burned, and tons of toxic pollutants released to the atmosphere each year by idling engines. Recent advances in cellular networks and dedicated short-range communications make Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications a reality, as individual cars and traffic signals can now be equipped with communication and computing devices. In this paper, we first presented an integrated simulator with V2I, a car-following model and an emission model to simulate the behavior of vehicles at signalized intersections and calculate travel delays in queues, vehicle emissions, and fuel consumption. We then present a hierarchical green driving strategy based on feedback control to smooth stop-and-go traffic in signalized networks, where signals can disseminate traffic signal information and loop detector data to connected vehicles through V2I communications. In this strategy, the control variable is an individual advisory speed limit for each equipped vehicle, which is calculated from its location, signal settings, and traffic conditions. Finally, we quantify the mobility and environment improvements of the green driving strategy with respect to market penetration rates of equipped vehicles, traffic conditions, communication characteristics, location accuracy, and the car-following model itself, both in isolated and non-isolated intersections. In particular, we demonstrate savings of around 15% in travel delays and around 8% in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Different from many existing ecodriving strategies in signalized road networks, where vehicles’ speed profiles are totally controlled, our strategy is hierarchical, since only the speed limit is provided, and vehicles still have to follow their leaders. Such a strategy is crucial for maintaining safety with mixed vehicles.     

欧曼重卡:我已成熟

亚洲最大商用车生产基地催生欧曼 福田欧曼的总装车间长316米,宽112米,是亚洲最大的重型卡车总装车间.福田欧曼生产基地的建设与别的汽车厂家不同,它采用的是"一次规划边拓市场、边建工厂"的模式.从2002年8月28日一期工程投产到目前,总投资已累计近15亿元.福田欧曼的生产基地不仅规模大,设备和工艺流程也十分先进."     

A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I – Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

The aim of this paper is to remove the known limitations of Deterministic and Stochastic User Equilibrium (DUE and SUE), namely that only routes with the minimum cost are used in DUE, and that all permitted routes are used in SUE regardless of their costs. We achieve this by combining the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete error distributions; the second is a Restricted SUE model with an additional constraint that must be satisfied for unused paths. The overall advantage of these model families consists in their ability to combine the unused routes with the use of random utility models for used routes, without the need to pre-specify the choice set. We present model specifications within these families, show illustrative examples, evaluate their relative merits, and identify key directions for further research.     

Enhanced cooperative car-following traffic model with the combination of V2V and V2I communication

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication are emerging components of intelligent transport systems (ITS) based on which vehicles can drive in a cooperative way and, hence, significantly improve traffic flow efficiency. However, due to the high vehicle mobility, the unreliable vehicular communications such as packet loss and transmission delay can impair the performance of the cooperative driving system (CDS). In addition, the downstream traffic information collected by roadside sensors in the V2I communication may introduce measurement errors, which also affect the performance of the CDS. The goal of this paper is to bridge the gap between traffic flow modelling and communication approaches in order to build up better cooperative traffic systems. To this end, we aim to develop an enhanced cooperative microscopic (car-following) traffic model considering V2V and V2I communication (or V2X for short), and investigate how vehicular communications affect the vehicle cooperative driving, especially in traffic disturbance scenarios. For these purposes, we design a novel consensus-based vehicle control algorithm for the CDS, in which not only the local traffic flow stability is guaranteed, but also the shock waves are supposed to be smoothed. The IEEE 802.11p, the defacto vehicular networking standard, is selected as the communication protocols, and the roadside sensors are deployed to collect the average speed in the targeted area as the downstream traffic reference. Specifically, the imperfections of vehicular communication as well as the measured information noise are taken into account. Numerical results show the efficiency of the proposed scheme. This paper attempts to theoretically investigate the relationship between vehicular communications and cooperative driving, which is needed for the future deployment of both connected vehicles and infrastructure (i.e. V2X).     

Dense network traffic models,Travel time reliability and traffic management. I: General introduction

This paper is the first of a pair of papers discussing two main themes concerning dense network modelling. These themes are: (1) the changing nature of traffic management technology and the underlying objectives behind traffic management practice, and (2) the use of measures of network reliability in models, especially as an element of the evaluation of alternative network configurations. This paper considers the role and function of dense network models, and their relationships with other transport network models on the basis of the hierarchical view of models. It then explores the peculiar characteristics of dense network models and provides examples of typical models. Changing needs for modelling capabilities, in terms of the evolution of traffic management technology and practice are discussed, pointing the way to future model developments. The companion paper develops the second theme through the definition and application of a set of network reliability indices that may be applied to different trip movements.     

An analysis of elevator operation in moderate height buildings—I: A single elevator

Approximate analytic methods are used to describe how the equilibrium trip time of an elevator depends upon the physical characteristics of the elevator, the passenger demand, and possible strategies of operation. The analysis is directed particularly toward elevators in buildings of moderate height (10–15 floors) at traffic levels such that the elevator is seldom idle or fully loaded. Part I describes the model and the general method for estimating means and variances of trip time if a group of floors is served by only one elevator and passenger arrivals define a homogeneous Poisson process.     

SIV-DSS: Smart In-Vehicle Decision Support System for driving at signalized intersections with V2I communication

In this paper, we present a Smart In-Vehicle Decision Support System (SIV-DSS) to help making better stop/go decisions in the indecision zone as a vehicle is approaching a signalized intersection. Supported by the Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications, the system integrates and utilizes the information from both vehicle and intersection. The effective decision support models of SIV-DSS are realized with the probabilistic sequential decision making process with the capability of combining a variety of advantages gained from a set of decision rules, where each decision rule is responsible to specific situations for making right decisions even without complete information. The decision rules are either extracted from the existing parametric models of the indecision zone problem, or designed as novel ones based on physical models utilizing the integrated information containing the key inputs from vehicle motion, vehicle-driver characteristics, intersection geometry and topology, signal phase and timings, and the definitions of red-light running (RLR). In SIV-DSS, the generality is reached through physical models utilizing a large number of accurate physical parameters, and the heterogeneity is treated by including a few behavioral parameters in driver characteristics. The performance of SIV-DSS is evaluated with systematic simulation experiments. The results show that the system can not only ensure traffic safety by greatly reducing the RLR probability, but also improve mobility by significantly reducing unnecessary stops at the intersection. Finally, we briefly discuss some relevant aspects and implications for SIV-DSS in practical implementations.     

马丁·玛米:我有一个梦想

记者:您是第一次来中国,在会议上对中国的道路运输企业有什么感受? 马丁·玛米:你们这里的企业非常活跃,包括你们的行业媒体.说实话,欧洲的运输企业一直在抱怨,没有中国这种氛围,你们的运输经理们很有活力.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations I: Intersection and link site exposure

Realistic predictions of the likely safety performance of advanced transport systems will need to draw on the knowledge accumulated from a large number of safety evaluations which have already been undertaken for existing transport systems. In particular, safety evaluations of future technologies must avoid the methodological pitfalls experienced in extensively researched areas, such as road safety, if such evaluations are to be meaningful. This paper reviews the use of exposure for a broad range of road safety studies, and concludes that unsatisfactory treatment of exposure is a common failing in past evaluations of the effectiveness of road accident countermeasures. Whilst a broad range of safety analyses is discussed, the use of exposure in site safety studies is emphasized. A follow-up paper will extend the discussion to other aspects of accident exposure including exposure measures for large groups of transport system users.     

Signalized intersections with variable flow rates: I analysis and simulation

One of the most common measures of signalized intersection operation is the amount of delay a vehicle incurs while passing through the intersection. Traditional models for estimating vehicle delay at intersections generally assume fixed signal timing and uniform arrival rates for vehicles approaching the intersection. One would expect that highly variable arrival rates would result in much longer delays than uniform arrival rates of the same average magnitude. Furthermore, one might expect that signal timing that is adjusted according to traffic volume would result in lower delay signal when variations in flow warrant such adjustable timing. This paper attempts to test several hypotheses concerning the effects of variable traffic arrival rates and adjusted signal timing through the use of simulation. The simulation results corroborate the hypothesis concerning the effect of varying arrival rates. As the variance of the arrival rate over time increases, the average delay per vehicle also increases. Signal timing adjustments based on traffic appear to decrease delay when flow rates vary greatly. As flow variations stabilize, the benefits of signal adjustments tend to diminish.