Will a driving restriction policy reduce car trips?—The case study of Beijing,China

A driving restriction policy, as one of the control-and-command rationing measures, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities in the world. Beijing is the first city in China to implement this policy. A one-day-a-week driving restriction scheme was expected to take 20% of cars off the road every week day. Using household survey and travel diary data, we analyze the short-term effect of this driving restriction policy on individual travel mode choice. The data also allow us to identify which demographic groups are more likely to break the restriction rule. The estimates reveal that the restriction policy in Beijing does not have significant influence on individuals’ decisions to drive, as compared with the policy’s influence on public transit. The rule-breaking behavior is constant and pervasive. We found that 47.8% of the regulated car owners didn’t follow the restriction rules, and drove “illegally” to their destination places. On average, car owners who traveled during peak hours and/or for work trips, and whose destinations were farther away from the city center or subway stations, were more likely to break the driving restriction rules. Therefore, Beijing is probably in need of more comprehensive and palatable policy instruments (e.g., a combination of congestion tolls, parking fees, fuel taxes, and high-speed transit facilities) to effectively alleviate traffic congestion and air pollution.     

How much should gasoline be taxed when electric vehicles conquer the market? An analysis of the mismatch between efficient and existing gasoline taxes under emerging electric mobility

The taxation of gasoline is characterized by large variability across countries and recent research has analyzed existing gasoline tax levels from an economic efficiency point of view focusing on conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Most studies find that existing fuel tax rates do not coincide with economically efficient levels. As long as policymakers do not take action to reduce the resulting efficiency gap, there will be an ongoing welfare loss to the economy. However, the composition of passenger car fleets will probably be subject to fundamental changes in the (near) future due to the emergence of electric mobility. This raises the question of whether the mismatch between current and efficient fuel taxation will persist, shrink, or even exacerbate under emerging electric mobility. This paper aims at answering this question by determining the structure and level of optimal gasoline taxes in the presence of electric vehicles (EVs). First, the optimal (nationwide) gasoline tax is analytically derived employing a general equilibrium approach. It is shown that differences in traffic related marginal external costs among fuel powered cars and EVs affect the corrective Pigouvian component of the optimal gasoline tax while a differential tax treatment influences the fiscal rational of the tax. Second, the model is applied to Germany using differentiated data on e.g. external costs and behavioral responses. Under a wide range of scenarios, the present analyses indicate a strong relationship between optimal gasoline taxes and electric mobility, calling for a downward adjustment of efficient gasoline taxes. The effect is mainly driven by financial incentives for purchasing and using EVs. Since fuel is likely to be undertaxed in many countries, the emergence of electric mobility will therefore close the gap between gasoline taxes in place and economically efficient taxes. On the other side, it will increase the efficiency gap in those countries where gasoline is overtaxed. This also has important implications for policy concerned with environmental objectives. Pushing electric mobility seriously and at the same time taxing gasoline efficiently could actually prevent sufficient CO₂ emission savings. However, at least in the case of Germany, even a downward adjusted optimal gasoline tax under electric mobility is likely to be higher than the current (non-optimal) tax.     

Optimal development of alternative fuel station networks considering node capacity restrictions

A potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is the use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV). As global GHG emission standards have been in place for passenger cars for several years, infrastructure modelling for new AFV is an established topic. However, as the regulatory focus shifts towards heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), the market diffusion of AFV-HDV will increase as will planning the relevant AFV infrastructure for HDV. Existing modelling approaches need to be adapted, because the energy demand per individual refill increases significantly for HDV and there are regulatory as well as technical limitations for alternative fuel station (AFS) capacities at the same time. While the current research takes capacity restrictions for single stations into account, capacity limits for locations (i.e. nodes) – the places where refuelling stations are built such as highway entries, exits or intersections – are not yet considered. We extend existing models in this respect and introduce an optimal development for AFS considering (station) location capacity restrictions. The proposed method is applied to a case study of a potential fuel cell heavy-duty vehicle AFS network. We find that the location capacity limit has a major impact on the number of stations required, station utilization and station portfolio variety.     

The endogeneity of OECD gasoline taxes: Evidence from pair-wise,heterogeneous panel long-run causality tests

Despite the current interest in using fuel taxes as an instrument for climate policy, there has been little study of current automotive fuel tax regimes. We expand on two earlier cross-sectional studies on why fuel taxes differ across countries by using OECD panel data and employing heterogeneous panel cointegration and long-run panel Granger-causality techniques. We confirm some of those earlier studies’ conclusions. Further, we find that governments that rely on consumption-based taxes for revenues will have higher gasoline tax rates (than governments that rely on income and wealth/property-based taxes). But more significantly, we determine that higher gasoline demand among consumers “causes” democratic governments to set lower gasoline taxes—a finding with important implications for today’s climate/energy policy debate.     

Promoting bike-and-ride: The Dutch experience

The number of policy initiatives to promote the use of bike-and-ride, or the combined use of bicycle and public transport for one trip, has grown considerably over the past decade as part of the search for more sustainable transport solutions. This paper discusses the experiences with, and impacts of, such initiatives in the Netherlands. The Dutch measures to promote bicycle use in access trips have been generally successful. A country-wide program to upgrade regular and secure bicycle parking at train stations has led to an increase in user satisfaction and a growth in bicycles parked at stations. Smaller programs to stimulate the combined use of bike-and-bus have resulted in an increase in bicycle use, bus use, and share of infrequent bus passengers. Bicycle lockers at bus stops are hardly used by bus passengers, due in part to the dominance of students among bus users as well as the relatively high price of lockers in comparison to the value of bicycles used for access trips. Measures to promote the use of the bicycle in egress trips have met with more varying results. Projects to introduce leasing bicycles for egress trips have failed to attract passengers, for both train and bus services. In contrast, the introduction of flexible rental bicycles at train stations has resulted in a small reduction in car use, growth in train trips, and growth in bicycle use for non-recurrent trips. The Dutch experiences suggest some lessons for promoting bike-and-ride in countries and cities with a less well-developed bicycle infrastructure.     

Making Cycling Irresistible: Lessons from The Netherlands,Denmark and Germany

Abstract

This article shows how the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany have made bicycling a safe, convenient and practical way to get around their cities. The analysis relies on national aggregate data as well as case studies of large and small cities in each country. The key to achieving high levels of cycling appears to be the provision of separate cycling facilities along heavily travelled roads and at intersections, combined with traffic calming of most residential neighbourhoods. Extensive cycling rights of way in the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany are complemented by ample bike parking, full integration with public transport, comprehensive traffic education and training of both cyclists and motorists, and a wide range of promotional events intended to generate enthusiasm and wide public support for cycling. In addition to their many pro‐bike policies and programmes, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany make driving expensive as well as inconvenient in central cities through a host of taxes and restrictions on car ownership, use and parking. Moreover, strict land‐use policies foster compact, mixed‐use developments that generate shorter and thus more bikeable trips. It is the coordinated implementation of this multi‐faceted, mutually reinforcing set of policies that best explains the success of these three countries in promoting cycling. For comparison, the article portrays the marginal status of cycling in the UK and the USA, where only about 1% of trips are by bike.     

A tool to optimize the initial distribution of hydrogen filling stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of fuel cell vehicle costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for these also from private consumers. In this paper, we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a fuel cell vehicle the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small-scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large-scale adoption of fuel cell vehicles. The tool makes use of agent-based trip modeling and geographic information system supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities.     

A comparative life-cycle energy and emissions analysis for intercity passenger transportation in the U.S. by aviation,intercity bus,and automobile

Intercity passenger trips constitute a significant source of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria pollutant emissions. The most commonly used city-to-city modes in the United States include aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. This study applies state-of-the-practice models to assess life-cycle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions for intercity trips via aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. The analyses compare the fuel and emissions impacts of different travel mode scenarios for intercity trips ranging from 200 to 1600 km. Because these modes operate differently with respect to engine technology, fuel type, and vehicle capacity, the modeling techniques and modeling boundaries vary significantly across modes. For aviation systems, much of the energy and emissions are associated with auxiliary equipment activities, infrastructure power supply, and terminal activities, in addition to the vehicle operations between origin/destination. Furthermore, one should not ignore the embodied energy and initial emissions from the manufacturing of the vehicles, and the construction of airports, bus stations, highways and parking lots. Passenger loading factors and travel distances also significantly influence fuel and emissions results on a per-traveler basis. The results show intercity bus is generally the most fuel-efficient mode and produced the lowest per-passenger-trip emissions for the entire range of trip distances examined. Aviation is not a fuel-efficient mode for short trips (<500 km), primarily due to the large energy impacts associated with takeoff and landing, and to some extent from the emissions of ground support equipment associated with any trip distance. However, aviation is more energy efficient and produces less emissions per-passenger-trip than low-occupancy automobiles for trip distances longer than 700–800 km. This study will help inform policy makers and transportation system operators about how differently each intercity system perform across all activities, and provides a basis for future policies designed to encourage mode shifts by range of service. The estimation procedures used in this study can serve as a reference for future analyses of transportation scenarios.     

The relation between daily travel and use of the home computer

On the basis of the Norwegian national personal travel survey (NPTS) 1997/98 and a connected mail back survey of the use of information – and communication technology at home, the relation between mobility and use of stationary communication has been studied. On the basis of these results we cannot see any direct substitutionary effects of the use of stationary technology at people's home on the use of mobile technology. Access to and use of information technology seems not to have a significant impact on travel activities in everyday life. Stationary communication seems to be a supplement to activities based on mobile technology. For people who work more than “normal” weekly working hours, stationary technology seems to give them greater flexibility in regard to where to work, but it does not necessarily reduce their travel activity. There is a tendency that people who own home computers make less work trips, but this does not affect the total number of daily trips. The spatial flexibility give a temporal flexibility, which means that work trips and other trips can be more dispersed over the day than is the situation today. The positive consequence can be a reduction in the rush-hour traffic; the negative is that it is more difficult to offer a high frequent public transport service when travel needs are more spread in time. Ownership and use of both mobile and stationary technologies are unequally distributed. Men, people with high education and income are the most frequent owners and users.     

Use of a novel dataset to explore spatial and social variations in car type,size, usage and emissions

The ’MOT’ vehicle inspection test record dataset recently released by the UK Department for Transport (DfT) provides the ability to estimate annual mileage figures for every individual light duty vehicle greater than 3 years old within Great Britain. Vehicle age, engine size and fuel type are also provided in the dataset and these allow further estimates to be made of fuel consumption, energy use, and per vehicle emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The use of this data permits the adoption of a new vehicle-centred approach to assessing emissions and energy use in comparison to previous road-flow and national fuel consumption based approaches. The dataset also allows a spatial attribution of each vehicle to a postcode area, through the reported location of relevant vehicle testing stations. Consequently, this new vehicle data can be linked with socio-demographic data in order to determine the potential characteristics of vehicle owners.This paper provides a broad overview of the types of analyses that are made possible by these data, with a particular focus on distance driven and pollutant emissions. The intention is to demonstrate the very broad potential for this data, and to highlight where more focused analysis could be useful. The findings from the work have important implications for understanding the distributional impacts of transport related policies and targeting messaging and interventions for the reduction of car use.     

Alternative fuels for transportation

The alternatives to the oil based fuels for transportation are considered and analysed. These are the synthetic fuels, made from coal, the liquid petroleum gases of propane and butane, compressed natural gas and methanol. The problems associated with the use of electric vehicles are discussed; the main problem being that of range.

The possible use of hydrogen as a fuel is analysed in some detail. Since its supply can be tied directly to nuclear energy sources, rather than hydrocarbon feed stocks, it could be an alternative in the long term. The main problems of the storage of hydrogen on the vehicle and of its propensity to “back‐fire” into the engine intake are discussed. The first can be ameliorated and the second eliminated by dual fuelling; with petrol. It is advocated that the on‐board storage of hydrogen be by the use of hydrides for private cars. However, it is expected that it may be as liquid hydrogen for some forms of transport and will certainly be in this form for aircraft.     

Identifying the spatial distribution of public transportation trips by node and community characteristics

ABSTRACT

Identifying the spatial distribution of travel activities can help public transportation managers optimize the allocation of resources. In this paper, transit networks are constructed based on traffic flow data rather than network topologies. The PageRank algorithm and community detection method are combined to identify the spatial distribution of public transportation trips. The structural centrality and PageRank values are compared to identify hub stations; the community detection method is applied to reveal the community structures. A case study in Guangzhou, China is presented. It is found that the bus network has a community structure, significant weekday commuting and small-world characteristics. The metro network is tightly connected, highly loaded, and has no obvious community structure. Hub stations show distinct differences in terms of volume and weekend/weekday usage. The results imply that the proposed method can be used to identify the spatial distribution of urban public transportation and provide a new study perspective.     

Use of hybrid vehicles in Japan: An analysis of used car market data

Despite the rapid market penetration of hybrid vehicles (HVs), their usage and contributions to environmental protection have not been examined by vehicle traveling data. In this paper, we analyzed Japan’s used car market data to understand how HVs are used on the street. We find GV drivers with high travel demand switched from GVs to HVs during the transition period. Despite HV owners driving much longer distances than conventional gasoline vehicle (GV) owners, they emit less carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, owing to better fuel economy. We also find that HV owners spend roughly the same amount of money annually as GV owners. However, the per-kilometer travel cost of HVs is much lower than that of GVs even if the depreciation cost of the vehicle and vehicle related taxes are included in the analysis.     

Relationship between proximity to transit and ridership for journey-to-work trips in Chicago

The use of privately owned vehicles (POVs) contributes significantly to US energy consumption (EC) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Strategies for reducing POV use include shifting trips to other modes, particularly public transit. Choices to use transit are based on characteristics of travelers, their trips, and the quality of competing transportation services. Here we focus on the proximity of rail stations to trip origins/destinations as a factor affecting mode choice for work trips. Using household travel survey data from Chicago, we evaluate the profile of journey-to-work (JTW) trips, assessing mode share and potential for more travelers to use rail. For work trips having the origin/destination as close as 1 mile from rail transit stations, POVs were still the dominant travel mode, capturing as much as 61%, followed by rail use at 14%. This high degree of POV use coupled with the proportion of JTW trips within close proximity to rail stations indicated that at least some of these trips may be candidates for shifting from POV to rail. For example, shifting all work trips with both the origin/destination within 1 mile of commuter rail stations would potentially reduce the energy associated with all work-related POV driving trips by a maximum of 24%. Based on the analysis of trips having the origin and destination closest to train stations, a complete shift in mode from POV to train could exceed CO₂ reduction goals targeted in the Chicago Climate Action Plan. This could occur with current settlement patterns and the use of existing infrastructure. However, changes in traveler behavior and possibly rail operation would be necessary, making policy to motivate this change essential.     

Empirical evidence on cruising for parking

The literature on car cruising is dominated by theory. We examine cruising for parking using a nation-wide random sample of car trips. We exclude employer-provided and residential parking. We focus on the Netherlands, where levels of on-street and off-street parking prices are locally the same. We demonstrate then that due to this price setting the average cruising time in the Netherlands is only 36 s per car trip. Furthermore, we show that cruising is not random. It is more common in (large) cities that receive more car trips, particularly for shopping and leisure activities. Cruising time increases with travel duration as well as with parking duration. Cruising has a distinctive pattern over the day with a peak in the morning, so the order of arrival is essential to parking. Because cruising has a spatial and time component, policies may be considered that reduce cruising time through flexible pricing of parking or improved information about vacant parking spaces.     

Modelling the potential for cycling in access trips to bus,train and metro in Rio de Janeiro

Most studies that address the integration of cycling and public transport (PT) focus on developed countries and deal with multi-modal bicycle-train trips. Little is known about the integration of cycling and other main modes such as bus and metro, especially in developing countries, where entirely different socio-economic and trip making conditions prevail. The aim of this study is to model the propensity of current PT users to shift to the bicycle in access trips to bus stops, train and metro stations in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Interviews were conducted to collect data on the socio-economic characteristics of the interviewee, trip and spatial characteristics and self-reported barriers and motivators for bicycle use. Two binary logit models were estimated to predict the main factors affecting the propensity to use a bicycle as feeder mode to PT. The results show that socio-economic characteristics as well as barriers and motivators are important factors to explain propensity for bike and ride. The barriers’ model reveals that personal constraints, living too close to the PT boarding point, current parking conditions and public safety play a role. For the motivators’ model, changing home location, owning a bicycle, implementation of cycle ways and improvement in parking conditions are explanatory. Policy recommendations are formulated to increase bicycle ownership and improve cycling infrastructure.     

Feebates, footprints and highway safety

This paper presents an analysis of a market-based policy aimed at encouraging manufacturers to develop more fuel efficient vehicles without affecting the car buyer’s choice of vehicle size. A vehicle’s size is measured by its “footprint”, the product of track width and wheelbase. Traditional market-based policies to promote higher fuel economy, such as higher gasoline taxes or gas guzzler taxes, also induce motorists to purchase smaller vehicles. Whether or not such policies affect overall road safety remains controversial, however. Feebates, a continuous schedule of new vehicle taxes and rebates as a function of vehicle fuel consumption, can also be made a function of vehicle size, thus removing the incentive to buy a smaller vehicle. A feebate system based on a vehicle’s footprint creates the same incentive to adopt technology to improve fuel economy as simple feebate systems while removing any incentive for manufacturers or consumers to downsize vehicles.     

Incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles: the influence of transport policies,attitudes and perceptions

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of policies, attitudes and perceptions when incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles. The impact of possible policies such as gasoline taxes increases, purchase price subsidies, tax exemptions, and increases in fuel recharging station availability for alternative fuelled vehicles is evaluated using hybrid choice models. The models also allow assessing the sensitivity of latent variables (i.e., attitudes and perceptions) in the car purchase behaviour. The models are estimated using data from a stated choice survey collected in five Colombian cities. The latent variables are obtained from the rating of statements related to the transport system, environmental concern, vehicle preferences, and technology. The modelling approach includes regression between latent variables. Results show that environmental concern and the support for green transport policies have a positive influence on the intention to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. Meanwhile, people who reveal to be car-dependent prefer to buy standard fuelled vehicles. The analysis among cities shows similar trends in individual behaviour, although there are differences in attribute sensitivities. The policy scenario analysis revealed high sensitivity to capital cost and the need for extensive investments in refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles to become attractive. Nevertheless, all policies should not only be directed at infrastructure and vehicles but also be focused on user awareness and acceptance of the alternative fuel vehicles. The analysis suggests that in an environmentally conscious market, people prefer alternative fuels. However, if the transport policies support private transport, the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles will decrease.     

The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium

RELU-TRAN2, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chicago MSA is used to understand how gasoline use, car-VMT, on-the-road fuel intensity, trips and location patterns, housing, labor and product markets respond to a gas price increase. We find a long-run elasticity of gasoline demand (with congestion endogenous) of ?0.081, keeping constant car prices and the TFI (technological fuel intensity) of car types but allowing consumers to choose from car types. 43% of this long run elasticity is from switching to transit; 15% from trip, car-type and location choice; 38% from price, wage and rent equilibration, and 4% from building stock changes. 79% of the long run elasticity is from changes in car-VMT (the extensive margin) and 21% from savings in gasoline per mile (the intensive margin); with 83% of this intensive margin from changes in congestion and 17% from the substitution in favor of lower TFI. An exogenous trend-line improvement of the TFI of the car-types available for choice raises the long-run response to a percent increase in the gas price from ?0.081 to ?0.251. Thus, only 1/3 of the long-run response to the gas price stems from consumer choices and 2/3 from progress in fuel intensity. From 2000 to 2007, real gas prices rose 53.7%, the average car fuel intensity improved 2.7% and car prices fell 20%. The model predicts that from these changes alone, keeping constant population, income, etc. aggregate gasoline use in this period would have fallen by 5.2%.     

The economy of alternative fuels when including the cost of air pollution

In this study, the costs involved in the use of petrol, diesel, natural gas, biogas, and methanol (produced from natural gas and biomass) in cars and heavy trucks are compared. The cost includes fuel cost, extra capital cost for vehicles using alternative fuels, and the environmental cost of VOC, NO_x, particulate and CO₂ emission based on actual 1996 and estimated 2015 emission factors. The costs have been calculated separately for rural, urban and city-centre traffic. A complete macroeconomic assessment of the effect of introducing alternative fuels is not, however, included in the study. The study shows that no alternative fuel can compete with petrol and diesel in rural traffic when the economic valuation of CO₂ emission is taken as current Swedish CO₂ taxes ($200/tonne C). In cities with a natural gas network, natural gas is the fuel with the lowest cost for both cars and heavy trucks, based on 1996 emission factors. Methanol from natural gas and biogas from waste products can also compete with diesel in urban traffic. With predicted improvements in technology and subsequent emission reductions, no alternative fuel can compete with petrol in any of the traffic situations studied by 2015, and only in city-centre traffic will alternative fuels be less costly than diesel in heavy vehicles. Of the biomass-based fuels studied, low-cost biogas from waste products is the most competitive one and is, already at current CO₂ taxes, the fuel with lowest cost for heavy trucks in urban traffic in areas where natural gas networks do not exist. To enable the more widespread use of biomass-based fuels, i.e. using feedstocks such as energy crops or logging residues that are available in larger amounts, the economic valuation of CO₂ emission has to be 2–2.5 times higher than current Swedish CO₂ tax level.