Capacity,information and minority games in public transport

Many public transport operators are faced with high peak demands. This leads to crowded vehicles and discomfort for the passengers. The increasing availability of information technologies creates new opportunities for passengers to avoid crowding and for operators to inform passengers and reallocate capacities quicker than before. We define and implement a simple model based on minority games, a class of games that deals with crowding dynamics, adapted to a public transport setting.We propose a model which includes multiple resources and heterogeneous passenger preferences. We have conducted two simulation studies, investigating the dynamics of crowding within a simplified public transport setting. In our first experiment we investigate the effect of the availability of information on crowding. In our second experiment we study dynamic optimization of rolling stock capacities. We find that both the information disclosed and the capacity optimization mechanism have an impact on the number of passengers utilizing resources and their satisfaction. As such, these models enable the development and analysis of new operator policies to deal with crowded situations.     

Scheduled paratransit transport systems

In this paper we focus on ways to provide individualized services to people with mobility challenges using existing modes of public transport. We study the design of an interesting case, in which a bus operating in a public transport route may diverge from its nominal path to pick-up passengers with limited mobility and drop them off at their destination. We have modeled the design problem by a mixed integer-linear program, and we developed an exact Branch and Price approach to solve it to optimality. The proposed approach includes a labeling algorithm in which we introduced appropriate dominance rules, which do not compromise optimality. We have compared the efficiency of our approach with that of related algorithms from the literature. Furthermore, we have used the proposed approach to study key aspects of the system design problem, such as the effect of various constraints on the service level, and the tuning of the system’s parameters to address different transport environments.     

Decision Support Systems for Public Transport Management: The Athens Public Transport Authority Project

This article reports on an implementation study of a computerised decision support system for public transport management for the Athens Public Transport Authority (APTA). The study analysed the current situation, specified user requirements, determined system functionality, designed the system architecture, organised the project and, finally, planned dissemination activities. The decision support system covers the main public transport management activities of APTA - transport service provision, economic and financial planning, passenger complaints and suggestions, and personnel management - offering its users the possibility to study the potential effects of their decisions before implementation. To achieve this, the system will consist of a data warehousing system, for the integrated management of a wide variety of data sources, and of online analytical processing tools, for information analysis and scenario testing. The system architecture has been designed to offer robustness, flexibility, rich functionality and open connectivity. The system aims to help APTA reduce operational costs and provide a better transport service, attracting more passengers to public transport and reducing, in the process, congestion and pollution.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.     

Dynamic stochastic transit assignment with explicit seat allocation model

This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic transit assignment model with an explicit seat allocation process. The model is applicable to a general transit network. A seat allocation model is proposed to estimate the probability of a passenger waiting at a station or on-board to get a seat. The explicit seating model allows a better differentiation of in-vehicle discomfort experienced by sitting and standing passengers. The paper proposes simulation procedures for calculating the sitting probability of each type of passengers. A heuristic solution algorithm for finding an equilibrium solution of the proposed model is developed and tested. The numerical tests show significant influences of the seat allocation model on equilibrium departure time and route choices of passengers. The proposed model is also applied to evaluate the effects of an advanced public transport information system (APTIS) on travellers’ decision-making.     

Estimation method for railway passengers’ train choice behavior with smart card transaction data

Smart card systems have become the predominant method of collecting public transport fares in Japan. Transaction data obtained through smart cards have resulted in a large amount of archived information on how passengers use public transportation. The data have the potential to be used for modeling passenger behavior and demand for public transportation. This study focused on train choices made by railway passengers. If each passenger’s train choice can be identified over a long period of time, this information would be useful for improving the customer relationship management of the railway company and for improving train timetables. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for estimating which train is boarded by each smart card holder. This paper presents a methodology and an algorithm for estimation using long-term transaction data. To validate the computation time and accuracy of the estimation, an empirical analysis is carried out using actual transaction data provided by a railway company in Japan. The results show that the proposed method is capable of estimating passenger usage patterns from smart card transaction data collected over a long time period.     

Improving transportation service quality based on information fusion

How to improve transportation service quality and thus attract more passengers to use public transportation systems is an important concern for city governments around the world. In this study, we propose a novel information fusion model that addresses the dependent relationships among the various criteria for a method of non-additive weighted gap analysis aimed at evaluating and improving the service quality of transport systems. The hybrid model remedies prior shortcomings and should be more applicable to real-world situations. The proposed model is applied to a real case study of Taipei city bus companies to demonstrate its usefulness. The resulting analysis and the managerial applications for improving the bus service quality are also discussed with regards to the current policies of Taipei city.     

Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

Assessing the financial and social costs of public transport in differing operating environments and with endogenous demand

This paper uses a previously developed spreadsheet cost model which simulates public transport modes operated on a 12-km route to analyse the total costs of different passenger demand levels. The previous cost model was a very powerful tool to estimate the social and operator costs for different public transport technologies. However, as the model is strategic, some basic assumptions were made which are relaxed in this paper. First, the speed-flow equation in the original spreadsheet model assumes that speed decreases according to the ratio of the current frequency and the lane capacity which is based on the safety headway without taking into account passenger boardings. However, this may vary in different operating environments. Therefore, the speed-flow equation is improved by moving from a linear equation to a piecewise equation that considers the features of different operating environments. Second, the model assumes that supply is sufficient to meet demand. However, when the level of demand is high for the lower-capacity public transport technologies, passengers may find the incoming vehicle full and therefore, they have to wait more than one service interval. This paper applies queuing theory to investigate the probability of having to wait longer than the expected service headways which will affect the average passenger waiting time. The extra waiting time for each passenger is calculated and applied in the spreadsheet cost model. Third, the original model assumed that demand was externally fixed (exogenous). To evaluate the differences after applying these equations, endogenous demand rather than exogenous demand will be investigated by using the elasticities for passenger waiting time and journey time.     

The perception of Bus Rapid Transit: a passenger survey from Beijing Southern Axis BRT Line 1

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has emerged as a cost-effective transport system for urban mobility. As a relatively new form of Mass Transit, its ability to provide a high-quality transport service and potential to stimulate land development remain largely unexplored. This study intends to investigate the public attitude towards BRT services, as well as respondents’ perception of living near BRT stations, using the Beijing Southern Axis BRT system as a case study. A data-set of responses to 525 questionnaires were assembled and analysed using a combination of statistical techniques. The results show that BRT has gained great popularity among passengers, and brought about a positive impact on the attractiveness of residential property. The data identify that the majority of passengers are work-related commuters and use BRT more than once a day. The captive users have a higher satisfaction than choice users with respect to reliability, comfort & cleanliness and overall satisfaction with the BRT service. It is argued that the BRT has significantly improved the attractiveness of residential property along the BRT corridor.     

Assessing the cost of transfer inconvenience in public transport systems: A case study of the London Underground

Few studies have adequately assessed the cost of transfers² in public transport systems, or provided useful guidance on transfer improvements, such as where to invest (which facility), how to invest (which aspect), and how much to invest (quantitative justification of the investment). This paper proposes a new method based on path choice,³ taking into account both the operator’s service supply and the customers’ subjective perceptions to assess transfer cost and to identify ways to reduce it. This method evaluates different transfer components (e.g., transfer walking, waiting, and penalty) with distinct policy solutions and differentiates between transfer stations and movements.The method is applied to one of the largest and most complex public transport systems in the world, the London Underground (LUL), with a focus on 17 major transfer stations and 303 transfer movements. This study confirms that transfers pose a significant cost to LUL, and that cost is distributed unevenly across stations and across platforms at a station. Transfer stations are perceived very differently by passengers in terms of their overall cost and composition. The case study suggests that a better understanding of transfer behavior and improvements to the transfer experience could significantly benefit public transport systems.     

Analyzing year-to-year changes in public transport passenger behaviour using smart card data

In recent years, there has been increased interest in using completely anonymized data from smart card collection systems to better understand the behavioural habits of public transport passengers. Such an understanding can benefit urban transport planners as well as urban modelling by providing simulation models with realistic mobility patterns of transit networks. In particular, the study of temporal activities has elicited substantial interest. In this regard, a number of methods have been developed in the literature for this type of analysis, most using clustering approaches. This paper presents a two-level generative model that applies the Gaussian mixture model to regroup passengers based on their temporal habits in their public transportation usage. The strength of the proposed methodology is that it can model a continuous representation of time instead of having to employ discrete time bins. For each cluster, the approach provides typical temporal patterns that enable easy interpretation. The experiments are performed on five years of data collected by the Société de transport de l’Outaouais. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in identifying a reduced set of passenger clusters linked to their fare types. A five-year longitudinal analysis also shows the relative stability of public transport usage.     

Examining the Political and Practical Reality of Bus-based Real Time Passenger Information

Abstract

Enhancing the bus experience through improved information provision is a key element of UK Government transport policy. Real time passenger information (RTPI) is perceived to reassure waiting passengers, to benefit the bus operator through increased revenue and the local authority, by promoting social inclusion and achieving a modal shift. RTPI also provides an important tool for operators by allowing them to monitor services and refine their schedules.

The aim of this paper is to understand the reasons for implementing RTPI in the bus sector, and to determine the key issues impacting on the likely success of such a policy. A case study approach investigates the experiences of two provincial towns in the UK. The paper suggests that, whilst it is unclear whether RTPI has resulted in an increase in bus patronage, it is considered to be most effective when combined as part of a package of measures. It is intended that the findings from the two case studies will reveal lessons of relevance to authorities contemplating the introduction of RTPI.     

Water transit and excess travel: discrete choice modelling of bus and ferry trips in Brisbane,Australia

Recent investment in urban ferry transport has created interest in what value such systems provide in a public transport network. In some cases, ferry services are in direct competition with other land-based transport, and despite often longer travel times passengers still choose water transport. This paper seeks to identify a premium attached to urban water transit through an identification of excess travel patterns. A one-month sample of smart card transaction data for Brisbane, Australia, was used to compare bus and ferry origin–destination pairs between a selected suburban location and the central business district. Logistic regression of the data found that ferry travel tended towards longer travel times (OR?=?2.282), suggesting passengers do derive positive utility from ferry journeys. The research suggests the further need to incorporate non-traditional measures other than travel time for deciding the value of water transit systems.     

Monopoly,Subsidies and the Mohring Effect: A Synthesis

Abstract

This paper provides a unifying framework to analyze whether a monopoly transit provider will under or over-supply frequency. To this end we couch the problem in term of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429] who analyzed the incentives to provide quality by a monopolist. We show that all of the results of a recent academic exchange discussing this topic are special cases of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429], albeit with an adjustment in order to take into account the cost structure of frequency provision in the case of public transport. In theory then, there are cases when a monopolist may offer optimal or above optimal levels of frequency without requiring subsidies. However, public transport is rarely provided by an unregulated monopolist. Rather, these services are usually provided either by an exclusive operator under regulated fares or by a group of competing operators, with or without fare regulation. We show that in the first case frequency will always be below the social optimal level.     

Automating a framework to extract and analyse transport related social media content: The potential and the challenges

Harnessing the potential of new generation transport data and increasing public participation are high on the agenda for transport stakeholders and the broader community. The initial phase in the program of research reported here proposed a framework for mining transport-related information from social media, demonstrated and evaluated it using transport-related tweets associated with three football matches as case studies. The goal of this paper is to extend and complement the previous published studies. It reports an extended analysis of the research results, highlighting and elaborating the challenges that need to be addressed before a large-scale application of the framework can take place. The focus is specifically on the automatic harvesting of relevant, valuable information from Twitter. The results from automatically mining transport related messages in two scenarios are presented i.e. with a small-scale labelled dataset and with a large-scale dataset of 3.7 m tweets. Tweets authored by individuals that mention a need for transport, express an opinion about transport services or report an event, with respect to different transport modes, were mined. The challenges faced in automatically analysing Twitter messages, written in Twitter’s specific language, are illustrated. The results presented show a strong degree of success in the identification of transport related tweets, with similar success in identifying tweets that expressed an opinion about transport services. The identification of tweets that expressed a need for transport services or reported an event was more challenging, a finding mirrored during the human based message annotation process. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential of automatic extraction of valuable information from tweets while pointing to areas where challenges were encountered and additional research is needed. The impact of a successful solution to these challenges (thereby creating efficient harvesting systems) would be to enable travellers to participate more effectively in the improvement of transport services.     

A motion-based image processing system for detecting potentially dangerous situations in underground railway stations

The timely detection of potentially dangerous situations involving passengers in public transport sites is vital to improve the safety and confidence of the travelling public. Conventional CCTV systems are monitored manually so that a single observer is typically responsible for dealing with tens or hundreds of cameras at a time. Thus, important events might be missed or detected too late for effective action. This paper gives an overview of motion-based methods used in a system developed as part of a EU-funded research project, to detect three important situations of interest to public transport operators. The style has been kept intentionally general so as to provide a good broad understanding of the transport needs being addressed. Emphasis is given to the performance of these methods as assessed with a large set of video recordings supplied by metropolitan railway networks in London, Paris and Milan.     

Why do paratransit operators resist participation in bus rapid transit? Case evidence from Bogota,Mexico City,Johannesburg and Lagos

ABSTRACT

Public transport in cities of the Global South is mainly provided by paratransit operators who self-regulate their services in the absence of adequate formal transport supply and due to weak or no formal regulatory framework and enforcement. Paratransit operators compete with each other for passengers as every passenger translates into profit. Governments in the Global South have sought to reform public transport services through Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) to regulate and ensure efficiency, address the problems of drivers competition and negative externalities associated with paratransit operations. Paratransit operators have been considered as one of the barriers to public transport reforms such as BRT without much consideration for their style of operations. This neglect has contributed to their resistance and low interest in participating in BRT and has even led to opposition. Consequently, non-consideration of incumbent operators in the implementation of transit reforms has been one important reason for delay or failure in their introduction. In this study, we identify reasons why paratransit operators resist and show low interest in BRT even in situations where public institutions have opted not to replace them but rather invite them to participate in the reforms. The basis is a case study analysis of four cities with different characteristics and different BRT implementation strategies where paratransit operators showed resistance and low interest to participate. We identify (1) loss of autonomy, flexibility and established practices/routines, (2) financial and economic risk avoidance and (3) lack of trust in governments who initiate reforms as a basis for their resistance and low interest. These findings are theoretically substantiated by organisational management and social psychology concepts that explain resistance to change. Understanding and recognising these reasons may help planners in designing more appropriate strategies for paratransit reforms.     

A model of the vicious cycle of a bus line

It has been frequently noted that in a non-regulated environment the development of public transport service is self-adjusting: Faced with decreasing demand, operators will tend to reduce service to cut costs, resulting in a decrease in the level-of-service, which then triggers a further drop in demand. The opposite may also occur: high demand will induce the operator to increase supply, e.g. through an increase in frequency, which results in a higher level-of-service and a subsequent increase in passenger numbers, triggering another round of service improvements. This paper adds to the literature by presenting an analytic model for analyzing these phenomena that we call vicious and virtuous cycles. Based on field data regarding passengers’ variation in willingness-to-wait for a public transport service, we investigate the dynamics of the line service and show how the emergence of a vicious or virtuous cycle depends on the total number of potential passengers, the share of captive riders, and bus capacity. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of the findings for the planning of public transport services.     

The potential for real-time passenger information as part of an integrated bus-control/information system

This paper is concerned with the effect of linking innovative bus-control systems with real-time passenger information, with the overall aim of improving conditions for bus operation and passengers in central urban corridors. The first section presents a concise review of bus passenger information systems (particularly their application at bus stops). Then the concept of real-time passenger information is explored. The case for and against real-time information is argued and two British case-studies follow. In the second section it is argued that the provision of real-time information, as part of an integrated bus-control/information system, offers new possibilities for meeting the identified needs of public transport users. Finally, in the third section, some comments are made on the evaluation of different combinations of bus-control and passenger information tested using a simulation method and a series of subjective response surveys. General relationships governing the degree of bus-control required and the extent of information needed are of special interest.