Lane-based real-time queue length estimation using license plate recognition data

License plate recognition (LPR) data are emerging data sources that provide rich information in estimating the traffic conditions of urban arterials. While large-scale LPR system is not common in US, last few years have seen rapid developments and implementations in many other parts of world (e.g. China, Thailand and Middle East). Due to privacy issues, LPR data are seldom available to research communities. However, when available, this data source can be valuable in estimating real-time operational metrics in transportation systems. This paper proposes a lane-based real-time queue length estimation model using the license plate recognition (LPR) data. In the model, an interpolation method based on Gaussian process is developed to reconstruct the equivalent cumulative arrival–departure curve for each lane. The missing information for unrecognized or unmatched vehicles is obtained from the reconstructed arrival curve. With the complete arrival and departure information, a car-following based simulation scheme is applied to estimate the real-time queue length for each lane. The proposed model is validated using ground truth information of the maximum queue lengths from the city of Langfang in China. The results show that the model can capture the variations in queue lengths in the ground truth data, and the maximum queue length for each signal cycle can be estimated with a reasonable accuracy. The estimated queue length information using the proposed model can serve as a useful performance metric for various real-time traffic control applications.     

Online license plate matching procedures using license-plate recognition machines and new weighted edit distance

License-plate recognition (LPR) technology has been widely applied in many different transportation applications such as enforcement, vehicle monitoring, and access control. Recently, there has been effort to exploit an LPR database for vehicle tracking using popular template matching procedures. Existing template matching procedures assume that the true reference string is always available. However, under a two-point LPR survey, a vehicle could have its plate misread at both locations generating a pair of misread strings (or templates) with no reference for matching. To compensate for LPR misreading problem, we propose a new weight function based on a probability model to match the observed outcomes of a dual LPR setup. Also, considering that reversal errors are never made in LPR machines, new editing constraints as a function of the string lengths are proposed to avoid compensation for reversal errors. These editing constraints are incorporated into the constraint edit distance formulation to improve the performance of the matching procedure. Finally, considering that previous template matching procedures do not take advantage of passage time information available in LPR databases, we present an online tracking procedure that considers the properties of probability distribution of vehicle journey times in order to increase the probability of correct matches. Experimental results show that our proposed procedure can improve the accuracy of LPR systems and achieve up to 97% of positive matches with no false matches. Further research is needed to extend the ideas proposed herein to plate-matching with multiple, i.e., more than two, LPR units.     

A data fusion approach for real-time traffic state estimation in urban signalized links

Real-time estimation of the traffic state in urban signalized links is valuable information for modern traffic control and management. In recent years, with the development of in-vehicle and communication technologies, connected vehicle data has been increasingly used in literature and practice. In this work, a novel data fusion approach is proposed for the high-resolution (second-by-second) estimation of queue length, vehicle accumulation, and outflow in urban signalized links. Required data includes input flow from a fixed detector at the upstream end of the link as well as location and speed of the connected vehicles. A probability-based approach is derived to compensate the error associated with low penetration rates while estimating the queue tail location, which renders the proposed methodology more robust to varying penetration rates of connected vehicles. A well-defined nonlinear function based on traffic flow theory is developed to attain the number of vehicles inside the queue based on queue tail location and average speed of connected vehicles. The overall scheme is thoroughly tested and demonstrated in a realistic microscopic simulation environment for three types of links with different penetration rates of connected vehicles. In order to test the efficiency of the proposed methodology in case that data are available at higher sampling times, the estimation procedure is also demonstrated for different time resolutions. The results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach for high-resolution estimation, even in the presence of measurement noise.     

An evaluation framework for traffic calming measures in residential areas

The paper evaluates the effectiveness of various traffic calming measures from the perspectives of traffic performance and safety, and environmental and public health impacts. The proposed framework was applied to four calming measures – two types of speed humps, speed tables, and chicanes – to demonstrate its usefulness and applicability. A field experiment using probe vehicles equipped with global positioning system devices was conducted to obtain vehicle trajectory data for use in more realistic simulations. In addition, a recently developed vehicle emissions model was used for more accurate evaluation of environmental and public health impacts. The results show that chicane is better than the other types of traffic calming measures considered, except in terms of vehicle emissions.     

Commuters’ acceptance of and behavior reactions to license plate restriction policy: A case study of Tianjin,China

License plate restriction (LPR) policies are currently being implemented in major Chinese cities with the aim of mitigating traffic congestions. Meanwhile, much controversy regarding the effectiveness of the LPR policies is arising. To better understand the impact of the LPR policies, this paper studies commuters’ acceptance of and behavior reactions to the policies after their implementation. A theoretical model was proposed as the first step, followed by a questionnaire survey that was conducted in Tianjin, China, where an LPR policy has been in place since March 2014. Car owners frequently commuting within the restricted area were sampled as respondents, and a multi-variable regression method was employed to analyze the collected survey data. The results indicate that it is necessary to promote public’s acceptance of the LPR policy, because lower acceptance will lead to more negative reactions towards the policy, which may weaken its effectiveness. Main factors affecting the level of acceptance of the policy are also found, which may serve as a reference for transportation authorities seeking to increase commuters’ acceptance of the policy. These findings are beneficial to designing and implementing LPR policies.     

Driving speeds in Europe for pollutant emissions estimation

The sensitivity of the pollutant emissions as regards the driving speed is demonstrated using emission functions currently available from the literature. An accurate and detailed knowledge of the actual driving speeds is then fundamental for emissions estimations and inventories. However, speed information is often limited and heterogeneous. Through a European synthesis, we examine the various means of investigations: surveys, vehicle instrumentation, traffic modelling, etc.The available statistics provide a high number of reference values for passenger cars and duty vehicles by broad categories and highlight the influence of numerous factors on speed: time period, city size and area, trips origin and destination and vehicle types. Speed estimations and ranges are proposed for the driving in urban areas, on rural roads and on motorways.The significant variations of the speed according to the time of the day, to the areas of a city, and the large dispersion for a given situation raise the question of using single average values. In fact, emissions estimation can be affected by 30% by the quality of the driving speed data.     

Studying the benefits of carpooling in an urban area using automatic vehicle identification data

Carpooling has been considered a solution for alleviating traffic congestion and reducing air pollution in cities. However, the quantification of the benefits of large-scale carpooling in urban areas remains a challenge due to insufficient travel trajectory data. In this study, a trajectory reconstruction method is proposed to capture vehicle trajectories based on citywide license plate recognition (LPR) data. Then, the prospects of large-scale carpooling in an urban area under two scenarios, namely, all vehicle travel demands under real-time carpooling condition and commuter vehicle travel demands under long-term carpooling condition, are evaluated by solving an integer programming model based on an updated longest common subsequence (LCS) algorithm. A maximum weight non-bipartite matching algorithm is introduced to find the optimal solution for the proposed model. Finally, road network trip volume reduction and travel speed improvement are estimated to measure the traffic benefits attributed to carpooling. This study is applied to a dataset that contains millions of LPR data recorded in Langfang, China for 1 week. Results demonstrate that under the real-time carpooling condition, the total trip volumes for different carpooling comfort levels decrease by 32–49%, and the peak-hour travel speeds on most road segments increase by 5–40%. The long-term carpooling relationship among commuter vehicles can reduce commuter trips by an average of 30% and 24% in the morning and evening peak hours, respectively, during workdays. This study shows the application potential and promotes the development of this vehicle travel mode.     

Deriving macroscopic fundamental diagrams from probe data: Issues and proposed solutions

Well-defined relationships between flow and density averaged spatially across urban traffic networks, more commonly known as Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFDs), have been recently verified to exist in reality. Researchers have proposed using MFDs to monitor the status of urban traffic networks and to inform the design of network-wide traffic control strategies. However, it is also well known that empirical MFDs are not easy to estimate in practice due to difficulties in obtaining the requisite data needed to construct them. Recent works have devised ways to estimate a network’s MFD using limited trajectory data that can be obtained from GPS-equipped mobile probe vehicles. These methods assume that the market penetration level of mobile probe vehicles is uniform across the entire set of OD pairs in the network; however, in reality the probe vehicle market penetration rate varies regionally within a network. When this variation is combined with the imbalance of probe trip lengths and travel times, the compound effects will further complicate the estimation of the MFD.To overcome this deficit, we propose a method to estimate a network’s MFD using mobile probe data when the market penetration rates are not necessarily the same across an entire network. This method relies on the determination of appropriate average probe penetration rates, which are weighted harmonic means using individual probe vehicle travel times and distances as the weights. The accuracy of this method is tested using synthetic data generated in the INTEGRATION micro-simulation environment by comparing the estimated MFDs to the ground truth MFD obtained using a 100% market penetration of probe vehicles. The results show that the weighted harmonic mean probe penetration rates outperform simple (arithmetic) average probe penetration rates, as expected. This especially holds true as the imbalance of demand and penetration level increases. Furthermore, as the probe penetration rates are generally not known, an algorithm to estimate the probe penetration rates of regional OD pairs is proposed. This algorithm links count data from sporadic fixed detectors in the network to information from probe vehicles that pass the detectors. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm is very effective. Since the data needed to apply this algorithm are readily available and easy to collect, the proposed algorithm is practically feasible and offers a better approach for the estimation of the MFD using mobile probe data, which are becoming increasingly available in urban environments.     

Estimating fuel consumption and emissions based on reconstructed vehicle trajectories

Microscopic emission models are widely used in emission estimation and environment evaluation. Traditionally, microscopic traffic simulation models and probe vehicles are two sources of inputs to a microscopic emission model. However, they are not effective in reflecting all vehicles' real‐world operating conditions. Using each vehicle's spot speed data recorded by detectors, this paper provides a new method to estimate all vehicles' real‐world activities data. These data can then be used as inputs to a microscopic emission model to estimate vehicle fuel consumption and emissions. The main task is to reconstruct trajectory of each vehicle and calculate second‐by‐second speed and acceleration from the activities data. The Next Generation Simulation dataset and the Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model are used in this study to calculate and analyze the emission results for both lane‐level and link‐level. The results showed that using the proposed method for estimating vehicle fuel consumption and emissions is promising. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A statistical model for estimating oxides of nitrogen emissions from light duty motor vehicles

Motor vehicle emission rate models for predicting oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions are insensitive to vehicle modes of operation such as cruise, acceleration, deceleration, and idle, because they are based on average trip speed. Research has shown that NOx emissions are sensitive to engine load; hence, load-based variables need to be included in emissions models. Ongoing studies attempting to incorporate these `modal' variables have experienced difficulties with: (1) incomplete and/or non-representative data sets of emissions test data vis-a-vis the modal operating profiles of the tested vehicles; (2) lack of information for predicting on-road operating parameters of vehicles; and (3) non-representative vehicles recruited for emissions tests.The objective of this research was to develop a statistical model for predicting NOx emissions from light-duty gasoline motor vehicles. The primary end use of this model is forecasting, rather than explanation of the factors that affect NOx emissions, which brings to bear different requirements from the statistical model. The three challenges noted above are addressed by: (1) analyzing a data set of more than 13 000 hot-stabilized laboratory treadmill tests on 19 driving cycles (specific speed versus time testing conditions), and 114 variables describing vehicle, engine and test cycle characteristics; (2) making the models compatible with empirical data on how vehicles are being operated in-use; and (3) developing statistical weights to account for the differences in model year distributions between the emissions testing database and the current national on-road fleets.The NOx emissions model is estimated using ordinary least-squares regression techniques, with transformed response variable and regression weights. Tree regression is employed as a tool for mining relationships among variables in the data, with particular focus on identifying useful interactions among discrete variables. Details of the model development process are presented, as well as results for the final model showing the predicted emissions algorithm for the current motor vehicle fleet in Atlanta, GA metropolitan region.     

A new modelling approach for road traffic emissions: VERSIT+

The objective of VERSIT+ LD is to predict traffic stream emissions for light-duty vehicles in any particular traffic situation. With respect to hot running emissions, VERSIT+ LD consists of a set of statistical models for detailed vehicle categories that have been constructed using multiple linear regression analysis. The aim is to find empirical relationships between mean emission factors, including confidence intervals, and a limited number of speed–time profile and vehicle related variables. VERSIT+ is a versatile model that has already been used in different projects at different geographical levels. Compared to COPERT IV, the VERSIT+ average speed algorithms provide increased accuracy with respect to the prediction of emissions in specific traffic situations.     

Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

Length-based vehicle classification using event-based loop detector data

Length-based vehicle classification is an important topic in traffic engineering, because estimation of traffic speed from single loop detectors usually requires the knowledge of vehicle length. In this paper, we present an algorithm that can classify vehicles passing by a loop detector into two categories: long vehicles and regular cars. The proposed algorithm takes advantage of event-based loop detector data that contains every vehicle detector actuation and de-actuation “event”, therefore time gaps between consecutive vehicles and detector occupation time for each vehicle can be easily derived. The proposed algorithm is based on an intuitive observation that, for a vehicle platoon, longer vehicles in the platoon will have relatively longer detector occupation time. Therefore, we can identify longer vehicles by examining the changes of occupation time in a vehicle platoon. The method was tested using the event-based data collected from Trunk Highway 55 in Minnesota, which is a high speed arterial corridor controlled by semi-actuated coordinated traffic signals. The result shows that the proposed method can correctly classify most of the vehicles passing by a single loop detector.     

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never considered before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. A statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.     

Electric vehicles’ energy consumption measurement and estimation

Use of electric vehicles (EVs) has been viewed by many as a way to significantly reduce oil dependence, operate vehicles more efficiently, and reduce carbon emissions. Due to the potential benefits of EVs, the federal and local governments have allocated considerable funding and taken a number of legislative and regulatory steps to promote EV deployment and adoption. With this momentum, it is not difficult to see that in the near future EVs could gain a significant market penetration, particularly in densely populated urban areas with systemic air quality problems. We will soon face one of the biggest challenges: how to improve efficiency for EV transportation system? This research takes the first step in tackling this challenge by addressing a fundamental issue, i.e. how to measure and estimate EVs’ energy consumption. In detail, this paper first presents a system which can collect in-use EV data and vehicle driving data. This system then has been installed in an EV conversion vehicle built in this research as a test vehicle. Approximately 5 months of EV data have been collected and these data have been used to analyze both EV performance and driver behaviors. The analysis shows that the EV is more efficient when driving on in-city routes than driving on freeway routes. Further investigation of this particular EV driver’s route choice behavior indicates that the EV user tries to balance the trade-off between travel time and energy consumption. Although more data are needed in order to generalize this finding, this observation could be important and might bring changes to the traffic assignment for future transportation system with a significant share of EVs. Additionally, this research analyzes the relationships among the EV’s power, the vehicle’s velocity, acceleration, and the roadway grade. Based on the analysis results, this paper further proposes an analytical EV power estimation model. The evaluation results using the test vehicle show that the proposed model can successfully estimate EV’s instantaneous power and trip energy consumption. Future research will focus on applying the proposed EV power estimation model to improve EVs’ energy efficiency.     

Estimation of flow and density using probe vehicles with spacing measurement equipment

Probe vehicles provide some of the most useful data for road traffic monitoring because they can acquire wide-ranging and spatiotemporally detailed information at a relatively low cost compared with traditional fixed-point observation. However, current GPS-equipped probe vehicles cannot directly provide us volume-related variables such as flow and density. In this paper, we propose a new probe vehicle-based estimation method for obtaining volume-related variables by assuming that a probe vehicle can measure the spacing to its leading one. This assumption can be realized by utilizing key technologies in advanced driver assistance systems that are expected to spread in the near future. We developed a method of estimating the flow, density, and speed from the probe vehicle data without exogenous assumptions on traffic flow characteristics, such as a fundamental diagram. In order to quantify the characteristics of the method, we performed a field experiment at a real-world urban expressway by employing prototypes of the probe vehicles with spacing measurement equipment. The result showed that the proposed method could accurately estimate the 5 min and hourly traffic volumes with probe vehicle penetration rate of 3.5% and 0.2%, respectively.     

An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction

The French government has implemented a periodical vehicle inspection program, which aims at maintaining proper functioning of the vehicle and ensuring the emissions control systems installed on the vehicle work properly. Also, an incentive program for scrapping old vehicles was introduced in 1994 through 1996 to promote the replacement of those vehicles with higher emissions by newer vehicles with lower emissions. A hazard-based duration model of household vehicle transaction behavior has been developed in this study to examine the effects of the inspection program and the grant for scrappage on vehicle transaction timing. The model is developed as a competing risks model assuming the following three types of competing risks: replacing one of the vehicles in the household fleet, disposing of one vehicle in the fleet, and acquiring one vehicle to add to the fleet. The empirical analysis is carried out using the panel data of French households' vehicle ownership from 1984 to 1998, obtained by the panel survey called Parc-Auto, which has been conducted by a French marketing firm, SOFRES, since 1976. The long panel observation period facilitates the introduction of macro-economic indicators into the model, enabling the analysis to distinguish the effects of policy measures from macro-economic factors. The empirical results indicate that the expected vehicle holding duration becomes 1.3 years longer under the inspection program than before the program commenced, given that the vehicle is replaced by another vehicle at the end of the holding duration; and that the conditional probability of replacing a vehicle aged 10 years and over becomes 1.2 times higher, and the average holding duration becomes shorter by 3.3 years, when the grant for scrappage is available.     

Origin-destination pattern estimation based on trajectory reconstruction using automatic license plate recognition data

Origin-destination (OD) pattern estimation is a vital step for traffic simulation applications and active urban traffic management. Many methods have been proposed to estimate OD patterns based on different data sources, such as GPS data and automatic license plate recognition (ALPR) data. These data can be used to identify vehicle IDs and estimate their trajectories by matching vehicles identified by different sensors across the network. OD pattern estimation using ALPR data remains a challenge in real-life applications due to the difficulty in reconstructing vehicle trajectories. This paper proposes an offline method for historical OD pattern estimation based on ALPR data. A particle filter is used to estimate the probability of a vehicle’s trajectory from all possible candidate trajectories. The initial particles are generated by searching potential paths in a pre-determined area based on the time geography theory. Then, the path flow estimation process is conducted through dividing the reconstructed complete trajectories of all detected vehicles into multiple trips. Finally, the OD patterns are estimated by adding up the path flows with the same ODs. The proposed method was implemented on a real-world traffic network in Kunshan, China and verified through a calibrated microscopic traffic simulation model. The results show that the MAPEs of the OD estimation are lower than 19%. Further investigation shows that there exists a minimum required ALPR sampling rate (60% in the test network) for accurately estimating the OD patterns. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in OD pattern estimation.     

Estimating link travel time functions for heterogeneous traffic flows on freeways

Oversized vehicles, such as trucks, significantly contribute to traffic delays on freeways. Heterogeneous traffic populations, that is, those consisting of multiple vehicles types, can exhibit more complicated travel behaviors in the operating speed and performance, depending on the traffic volume as well as the proportions of vehicle types. In order to estimate the component travel time functions for heterogeneous traffic flows on a freeway, this study develops a microscopic traffic‐simulation based four‐step method. A piecewise continuous function is proposed for each vehicle type and its parameters are estimated using the traffic data generated by a microscopic traffic simulation model. The illustrated experiments based on VISSIM model indicate that (i) in addition to traffic volume, traffic composition has significant influence on the travel time of vehicles and (ii) the respective estimations for travel time of heterogeneous flows could greatly improve their estimation accuracy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of a prescreening model to identify failed and gross polluting vehicles

The California State Bureau of Automotive Repair uses a high-emitter profile model to direct, or screen a fraction of the vehicle fleet in for inspection and maintenance testing at test-only facilities. Reviews by the California Inspection/Maintenance Review Committee showed the high-emitter profile to be inefficient and in need of improvement. In this study, using in-use vehicle emissions data from California’s statewide smog check program, we specified a new multinomial logit model designed to improve the screening efficiency for targeting potential failed and gross polluting vehicles. Modeling results show that factors such as odometer reading, model year, vehicle make, as well as the presence of emissions control systems are significant factors in predicting the likelihood that a screened vehicle will test as a failed or a gross polluting vehicle. Comparisons indicate that the new multinomial logit model specification can predict various inspection/maintenance test outcomes more accurately than the existing high-emitter profile model.