京沪通道:旅客运输方式选择分析

京沪通道连接了北京和上海两大中心城市，经天津、济南、徐州、蚌埠、南京等大中城市，全长约1300公里，该通道将率先建成高速铁路，在众多通道中率先形成由高速公路、高速铁路、民航、普通铁路组成的综合运输通道，旅客运输面临更多选择，运输市场也面临重新分配。国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所在2002年对京沪通道上的旅客进行了抽样调查，其数据可以用于进行旅客运输方式选择的影响因素分析。以京沪通道为例分析旅客运输方式的选择行为对未来形成的综合运输通道的旅客运输方式选择具有借鉴意义。同时，把握旅客运输方式选择的影响因素，可以掌握旅客运输发展的动向，     

关于铁路旅客运输销售策略的探讨

<正> 旅客运输市场竞争,首先是运输销售的竞争,是组织客流的竞争。只有有了客流,才有旅客运输市场。没有客流,旅客运输生产没有了生产服务的对象,旅客运输生产没有了产品,自然就谈不上市场竞争了。本文拟对旅客运输销售策略,进行一些探析,抛砖与同行共探。 一、各种运输方式的技术经济特性概述 一般认为,铁路运输方式的技术经济特性是连续性强、安全性高、运量大、速度快、成本低、污染轻。铁路旅客运输适合我国国情,是我国旅客运输的骨干。我国是一个发展中国家,人均国民收入水平比较低,人均年出行次数较低,其中人均年铁路出行次数尚不足1人次。绝大     

我国旅客联运发展必要性及推进路径研究

旅客联运作为综合运输服务体系的重要组成部分,可以发挥各种旅客运输方式的比较优势,提高运输组合效率和服务水平,是推进现代综合交通运输体系建设的重要切入点。近几年我国旅客联运发展迅速,市场、政府如何做好分工,营造多种运输方式主体共赢的市场格局以及推动健康有序推进我国旅客联运发展,是近些年值得我们思考和解决的关键问题。     

综合交通运输体系下旅客联运产品谱系化设计

针对我国旅客联运产品发展现状和存在问题，从运输方式、运输速度、运输距离等维度，设计了以高速铁路为核心的旅客联运产品谱系，充分发挥了各种运输方式的比较优势，提高了综合运输组合效率，对于加快推进综合交通运输体系发展具有重要意义。     

不同类型道路客运站选址刍议

道路旅客运输是人民群众最普遍的出行方式，虽然高铁的开通和免收节假日通行费等政策的施行对道路客运有着不小的冲击，但是营业性道路旅客运输量仍高于其它各种（铁路、民航、水运）运输方式所产生的运输量。道路客运站作为道路客运的载体，成为建立衔接顺畅、优势互补的现代综合运输体系的重要节点，为道路旅客运输经营业户提供了综合性、     

试论21世纪初期旅客运输的发展趋势

<正> 改革开放以来,我国各种运输方式客运总量 增长了近4倍,平均年递增速度达9％以上,基本与经济发展同步增长;尤其是进入90年代之后,旅客运输增长速度超过了货物运输,成为交通运输业在新时期的发展热点。因此,需要认真分析新世纪我国城乡旅客运输发展趋势,研究发展对策,促进我国旅客运输持续、快速、健康地发展。 一、我国旅客运输发展历史回顾 在建国近50年的历程中,我国旅客运输发展大致可分为三个阶段: 第一阶段为1949～1965年,这一时期我国旅客运输基本呈正常快速发展阶段,除了受3     

发挥铁路在旅客运输中的骨干作用

<正> 目前,我国在承担旅客运输的铁路、公路、水运和民航四种交通方式中,铁路旅客运输在运输系统中的地位和作用,是我们今后发展旅客运输必须充分认识的问题。 一、我国的国情决定着铁路在旅客运输中的地位和作用 一个国家的交通运输与其国情密切相关。国情不同,交通运输业的结构就不同,各种运输方式在国民经济和运输业中所处的地位和作用也不相同。因此,必须从具体国情出发,来分析铁路旅客运输的地位与作用。     

我国旅客运输结构变化动因及其趋势分析

<正> 我国的旅客运输体系由铁路、公路、水运和民航等4种运输方式所组成,经过建国以来几十年的建设和发展,客运技术装备、运输能力得到不断提高;与此同时,旅客运输结构也发生了较大的变化,突出表现为起初以铁路、水运为代表的传统客运方式在客运中的地位和作     

基于旅客运输需求的综合交通服务系统研究

随着我国社会经济的持续增长,航空、铁路、公路、水路这四大运输方式各自的旅客运输服务都已发展到了一定程度。为向旅客提供更优质、便捷的运输服务,也为谋求更大的发展空间,人们越来越关注旅客"联程"的可能性。同时《中长期铁路网规划》(2008年调整)指出要发挥综合运输系统的组和效率和整体优势,实现交通运输资源优化配置。基于此,本文提出构建基于旅客运输需求的综合交通服务系统的设想,并对其主要功能进行说明。     

新政曙光现,联运市场蓄势待发?

正充分发挥各种旅客运输方式的比较优势,大大提升运输组合效率和服务水平,联程运输是未来的一种趋势,是个性化出行市场中的可选方式之一。就在2017年的最后一天,交通运输部会同国家发展改革委、国家旅游局、国家铁路局、中国民用航空局、国家邮政局、中国铁路总公司,联合印发了《关于加快推进旅客联程运输发展的指导意见》(以下简称"《指导意见》"),     

建设广西综合运输体系对策研究

文章介绍综合运输体系的概念,分析广西综合运输体系的现状及存在问题,结合广西交通运输实际,提出建设广西综合运输体系的对策。     

A computational model for the probit‐based dynamic stochastic user optimal traffic assignment problem

This paper focuses on computational model development for the probit‐based dynamic stochastic user optimal (P‐DSUO) traffic assignment problem. We first examine a general fixed‐point formulation for the P‐DSUO traffic assignment problem, and subsequently propose a computational model that can find an approximated solution of the interest problem. The computational model includes four components: a strategy to determine a set of the prevailing routes between each origin–destination pair, a method to estimate the covariance of perceived travel time for any two prevailing routes, a cell transmission model‐based traffic performance model to calculate the actual route travel time used by the probit‐based dynamic stochastic network loading procedure, and an iterative solution algorithm solving the customized fixed‐point model. The Ishikawa algorithm is proposed to solve the computational model. A comparison study is carried out to investigate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed algorithm with the method of successive averages. Two numerical examples are used to assess the computational model and the algorithm proposed. Results show that Ishikawa algorithm has better accuracy for smaller network despite requiring longer computational time. Nevertheless, it could not converge for larger network. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System optimum and pricing for the day-long commute with distributed demand,autos and transit

The day-long system optimum (SO) commute for an urban area served by auto and transit is modeled as an auto bottleneck with a capacitated transit bypass. A public agency manages the system’s capacities optimally. Commuters are identical except for the times at which they wish to complete their morning trips and start their evening trips, which are given by an arbitrary joint distribution. They value unpunctuality – their lateness or earliness relative to their wish times – with a common penalty function. They must use the same mode for both trips. Commuters are assigned personalized mode and travel start times that collectively minimize society’s generalized cost for the whole day. This includes unpunctuality penalties, queuing delays, travel times and out-of-pocket costs for users, as well as travel supply costs and externalities for society.It is shown that in a SO solution there can be no queuing and that the set of SO solutions forms a convex set. Furthermore, if the schedule penalty that users suffer due to unpunctuality is separable into morning and evening components, then the set of commuters traveling by the same mode arrive at work and depart from work in the order of their wishes. These orders are in general different in the morning and the evening. It is also shown that there always is a SO solution in which users are at all times, and on both modes, either punctual or flowing at capacity. These problem properties are used to identify search methods, both, for SO solutions and for time-dependent tolls and transit fares that preserve the solutions as Nash equilibriums. In every case studied, these prices exist. They must peak concurrently for the two modes in both periods.In special cases involving only one mode, only one period or concentrated demand the solution to the complete problem decomposes by period conditional on the number of transit users, and this facilitates the solution. In these cases the day-long SO cost is the sum of the SO costs for the two peaks considered separately. However, this is not true in general – the solution obtained by combining the two single-period solutions can be infeasible. When this happens, the optimum day-long cost will exceed the sum of the single-period costs. The discrepancy is about 40% of the total schedule penalty for an example representing a large city. Thus, to develop realistic policies the day-long problem must be addressed head on. An approximate method that yields closed form formulas for the case with uniformly distributed wishes is presented.     

A continuous approximation model for time definite many-to-many transportation

Time definite freight transportation carriers provide very reliable scheduled services between origin and destination terminals. They seek to reduce transportation costs through consolidation of shipments at hubs, but are restricted by the high levels of service to provide less circuitous routings. This paper develops a continuous approximation model for time definite transportation from many origins to many destinations. We consider a transportation carrier serving a fixed geographic region in which demand is modeled as a continuous distribution and time definite service levels are imposed by limiting the maximum travel distance via the hub network. Analytical expressions are developed for the optimal number of hubs, hub locations, and transportation costs. Computational results for an analogous discrete demand model are presented to illustrate the behavior observed with the continuous approximation models.     

Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel

A number of recent studies have examined the hypothesis of induced travel in an attempt to quantify the phenomenon (Hansen & Huang 1997; Noland, forthcoming). No study has yet attempted to adjust for potential simultaneity bias in the results. This study addresses this issue by the use of an instrumental variable (two stage least squares) approach. Metropolitan level data compiled by the Texas Transportation Institute for their annual congestion report is used in the analysis and urbanized land area is used as an instrument for lane miles of capacity. While this is not an ideal instrument, results still suggest a strong causal relationship but probably that most previous work has had an upward bias in the coefficient estimates. The effect of lane mile additions on VMT growth is forecast and found to account for about 15% of annual VMT growth with substantial variation between metropolitan areas. This effect appears to be closely correlated with percent growth in lane miles, suggesting that rapidly growing areas can attribute a greater share of their VMT growth to growth in lane miles.     

A methodology to estimate the revenue anticipated from State-level alternative financing approaches in the US

A major issue that State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in the US face relates to financing future transportation investments. Questions of interest to State DOT officials relate to the suitability and revenue potential of alternative financing approaches. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the potential levels of revenue associated with the use of selected combinations of financing approaches and to assess the adequacy of these revenues vis-a-vis various levels of investments being considered by decision-makers. The methodology is designed to accommodate a wide array of inputs such as major policy objectives and initial assumptions that may vary significantly from State to State in order to provide a greater flexibility of implementation. The application of this methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative example for Massachusetts. This paper should be of interest to State DOTs seeking an acceptable combination of financing approaches to support future transportation investments.     

国际道路货运发展与大湄公河次区域合作

本文分析了大湄公河次区域合作下广西国际道路货运发展现状,提出了广西国际货运发展指导思想和总体目标,探讨了国际道路货运的发展对策。     

Evaluating gravel transport sustainability: A case study of Taiwan’s northeast corridor

We use social-eco-efficient analysis in the form of SEEbalance to evaluate gravel transport sustainability for trucking and two kinds of intermodal transportation. Results show that switching from trucks to intermodal transportation can improve the sustainability of gravel transportation in the northeast corridor of Taiwan. Sensitivity analysis shows that rail combined with truck intermodal transportation has competitive advantage despite the terminal’s location factor.     

A fuzzy stochastic approach to the multicriteria selection of an aircraft for regional chartering

This article deals with the problem of decision support for the selection of an aircraft. This is a problem faced by an airline company that is investing in regional charter flights in Brazil. The company belongs to an economic group whose core business is logistics. The problem has eight alternatives to be evaluated under 11 different criteria, whose measurements can be exact, stochastic, or fuzzy. The technique chosen for analyzing and then finding a solution to the problem is the multicriteria decision aiding method named NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments). The method used allows tackling the problems by working with quantitative as well as qualitative criteria under uncertainty and imprecision. Another considerable advantage of NAIADE over other multicriteria methods relies in its characteristics of not requiring a prior definition of the weights by the decision maker. As a conclusion, it can be said that the use of NAIADE provided for consistent results to that aircraft selection problem. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价内涵探讨

文章从合理性的一般哲学解释出发,论证出综合交通线网规划方案合理性存在的必然性,然后分别从多方式合理分工、各交通线路分阶段整体推进、交通线网投资实施总体控制、交通网络构建符合OD分布规律、以及线网规划目标考虑资源消耗限制等方面,深入分析合理的综合交通体系应具备的特征,并由此推荐系列评价指标集,从而为综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价提供理论依据。