Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures

Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.

     

Why are cities removing their freeways? A systematic review of the literature

ABSTRACT

A scientific consensus has recently emerged suggesting that the dominant twentieth century paradigm of solving transportation congestion problems by building more freeways failed. The legacy of the freeway construction era is clearly visible in polluted and congested cities worldwide. To battle these ills, planning academics have been promoting more sustainable built form aligned with dedicated public/active transport provision. Partly as a result of the push coming from academia, a number of cities have sought to remove their freeways and replace the freed up space with alternate transport infrastructure, such as streets and boulevards. To discern if the transportation planning profession is currently undergoing a paradigm shift or whether freeway removal is merely a temporary fad, we have conducted a systematic review of the literature. In this article, we unpack the underlying reasons which have led some cities to removing their freeways. Results reveal that a paradigm shift has arguably not yet taken place in transportation planning. While many cities are creating human-scale and active transport spaces, currently these spaces tend to coexist alongside freeways. American cities, which were once the pioneers of freeway construction, appear to be lagging behind cities in Europe and Asia in this respect. If the current pace of freeway removal continues, it may take a few decades before the transportation planners, politicians, policy makers, and communities adopt radically different norms, methods, and goals. However, a radical approach may need to be taken sooner given alarming global warming predictions.     

Is a new applied transportation research field emerging?––A review of intermodal rail–truck freight transport literature

Intermodal freight transport has developed into a significant sector of the transport industry in its own right. This development has been followed by an increase in intermodal freight transportation research. We contend that a new transportation research application field is emerging; and that, while still in a pre-paradigmatic phase, it is now time to move on to a more mature independent research field. An independent research field can be justified because intermodal transport is a complex system that has characteristics which distinguishes it from other transport systems. We have reviewed 92 publications in order to identify the characteristics of the intermodal research community and scientific knowledge base. This paper will discuss aspects of this research, assessing the status quo and seeking directions for the future. To conclude, we will propose an intermodal research agenda which can direct the intermodal research field towards a period of “normal science”.     

Developing intermodal transport for small flows over short distances

Intermodal road-rail freight transport works best within markets with relatively large flows occurring over long distances, which corresponds poorly to the current demand for transport in the European Union. The purpose of this paper is to compare the capabilities of conventional European intermodal transport, with special reference to the competitiveness in markets with small flows over short distances, and to explore innovative concepts. Using a technological systems approach, key functions are identified as being the inducement and blocking mechanisms that affect the development and diffusion path of this 'small flows over short distances' (SFSD) system, providing a tool for empirical delineation of the system. These concepts are illustrated and analysed through a case study of the Swedish development project Light-combi. The results show that market and financial uncertainties, insufficient network connectivity and policies favouring the existing technology paradigm, severely hamper the development and diffusion of SFSD systems.     

A new shared vehicle system for urban areas

The paper concerns the conceptual design of a transport system for pedestrian areas. The proposed transport system is based on a fleet of eco-sustainable Personal Intelligent City Accessible Vehicles (PICAVs). The vehicles are shared through the day by different users and the following specific services will be provided: instant access, open ended reservation and one way trips. Referring to the proposed transport system, a new methodology to optimise the fleet dimension and its distribution among the stations is proposed in this paper. The problem faced is an optimisation problem where the cost function to be minimised takes into account both the transport system cost and the user costs that depend on the waiting times. A random search algorithm has been adopted. Given a fleet dimension and its distribution among the stations, the waiting times of the users are assessed by a microscopic simulation. The simulation model tracks the second-by-second activity of each PICAV user, as well as the second-by-second activity of each vehicle. The overall methodology has been implemented in an object-oriented simulator. The proposed transport system has been planned and simulated for the historical city centre of Genoa, Italy.     

Community Severance: Where Is It Found and at What Cost?

Community severance occurs when transport infrastructure or motorised traffic divides space and people. Despite the growing awareness of its effects on the wellbeing of local communities, the problem is not usually assessed quantitatively or assigned a monetary value. This paper reviews existing practice and research on quantitative methods dealing with community severance. The problem is first decomposed into a series of questions, which are then used as a base to review the methods found in governmental guidance documents, technical reports, and academic studies. The paper ends with recommendations for the integration of severance issues into transport planning.     

Intermodal freight transport planning – A receding horizon control approach

This paper investigates intermodal freight transport planning problems among deep-sea terminals and inland terminals in hinterland haulage for a horizontally fully integrated intermodal freight transport operator at the tactical container flow level. An intermodal freight transport network (IFTN) model is first developed to capture the key characteristics of intermodal freight transport such as the modality change phenomena at intermodal terminals, physical capacity constraints of the network, time-dependent transport times on freeways, and time schedules for trains and barges. After that, the intermodal freight transport planning problem is formulated as an optimal intermodal container flow control problem from a system and control perspective with the use of the proposed IFTN model. To deal with the dynamic transport demands and dynamic traffic conditions in the IFTN, a receding horizon intermodal container flow control (RIFC) approach is proposed to control and to reassign intermodal container flows in a receding horizon way. This container flow control approach involves solving linear programming problems and is suited for transport planning on large-sized networks. Both an all-or-nothing approach and the proposed RIFC approach are evaluated through simulation studies. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed RIFC approach.     

Road pricing modeling for hyper-congestion

Recently there has been a resurgence in the interest of road pricing. Most studies adopt the static modeling paradigm, typically using either separable monotone or backward-bending link travel time functions for the analysis. In this study, through the shockwave analysis, we show that separable backward-bending functions are not appropriate for modeling hyper-congestion and hence road pricing. In the absence of queue spillback, link travel time is a monotone increasing function of inflow. However, in the presence of queue spillback, we show that the static paradigm even with a monotone travel time function cannot adequately portray the congestion phenomenon. In some cases, the tolls determined by the static paradigm can be even detrimental, worsening rather than alleviating the congestion problem. In the end, to model congested networks properly, perhaps one has no other choices but to adopt a modeling paradigm that faithfully captures both the temporal as well as the spatial dimensions of traffic queuing.     

Store-and-forward based methods for the signal control problem in large-scale congested urban road networks

The problem of designing network-wide traffic signal control strategies for large-scale congested urban road networks is considered. One known and two novel methodologies, all based on the store-and-forward modeling paradigm, are presented and compared. The known methodology is a linear multivariable feedback regulator derived through the formulation of a linear-quadratic optimal control problem. An alternative, novel methodology consists of an open-loop constrained quadratic optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved via quadratic programming. Yet a different formulation leads to an open-loop constrained nonlinear optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved by use of a feasible-direction algorithm. A preliminary simulation-based investigation of the signal control problem for a large-scale urban road network using these methodologies demonstrates the comparative efficiency and real-time feasibility of the developed signal control methods.     

Approaches to dynamic transport planning

Dynamic transport planning refers to the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date of the construction or improvement of transport facilities. This analysis may also include consideration of stage construction or progressive improvements in quality and/or capacity over time, beginning from some relatively low standard. A transport facility is defined as a vehicle (e.g., automobile, airplane) or a supporting facility (e.g., highway, port).There appears at present to be a serious lack of any truly comprehensive evaluation of the essentials of the problem of choice of implementation date. It is the intent of the ensuing presentation to help to rectify that situation by introducing new concepts which structure the timing problem. The concepts are based on a suggested classification of future traffic and definitions of independent and indivisible facilities. In addition, volume of traffic and benefits of a transport facility are recognized to be dependent on calendar time and the facility's age.Presently, no uniform theoretical framework exists for establishing the optimal time for constructing new facilities or improving existing ones. A framework based on the aforementioned concepts is introduced. It distinguishes between the phasing of projects through time in the absence of budget constraints and this phasing in the presence of such restrictions. The specific procedures suggested in this paper for the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date apply to any individual transport facility and tend to unify the concepts involved in dynamic transport planning.The article concludes with a survey of current approaches to dynamic transport planning and discusses these in the light of the above framework.The study was supported by the Urban Mass Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.     

Social Impacts of Transport: Literature Review and the State of the Practice of Transport Appraisal in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom

Abstract

Transport appraisals in European countries increasingly address three dimensions of sustainability—economic, ecological and social. However, social impacts of transport have been underexposed in (ex‐ante) transport project appraisal, at least in the Netherlands. Firstly, this article presents a theoretical framework describing the relationships between determinants of social impacts of transport; it also provides a definition and categorization of those impacts. Secondly, the article reviews the state of the practice of national transport project appraisal in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The article shows that social impacts of transport investments can take on many forms and their levels of importance may vary widely, in project appraisal. The UK transport appraisal guidance includes a spectrum of social impacts through quantitative and qualitative assessments that is broader than the Dutch appraisal guidance. However, it does not cover the full range as identified in the literature. This holds, in particular, for the temporary impacts of transport investments, health impacts, social cohesion, the distribution and accumulation of impacts across population groups and social justice. All in all, it can be concluded that there is a long way to go before social impacts of transport projects are completely included in appraisals, in a way that allows us to compare them to economic and ecological effects.     

Bicycle parking: a systematic review of scientific literature on parking behaviour,parking preferences,and their influence on cycling and travel behaviour

ABSTRACT

Cycling is experiencing a revival in many cities. Research has focused on the determinants of cycling – in particular the role of the built environment and road infrastructure. Bicycle parking has received little attention – even though bicycles are parked most of the time. This article reviews the scientific literature on bicycle parking and identifies existing gaps in research and knowledge. The review analyses 94 peer-reviewed papers identified through a search in Scopus and Web of Science, in December 2017. The annual number of papers increased 15-fold between 1995 and 2017. Overall, the level of evidence on the importance of bicycle parking is limited. The majority of studies are based on cross-sectional data with the presence of parking as a binary independent variable. Most studies focus on bicycle parking at public transport stops and at work places. Few studies report on bicycle parking throughout cities, and hardly any on parking at residential locations. Bicycle parking supply and quality appears to be a determinant of cycling for current and potential cyclists. Our findings can serve as input for an evidence-based debate on the role of bicycle parking. For practitioners, our research supports investment in bicycle parking, but acknowledges that a proper evaluation of such initiatives needs to be conducted to increase the level of evidence.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

Proposed framework for sustainability screening of urban transport projects in developing countries: A case study of Accra,Ghana

This paper documents a framework suggested for screening urban transport projects in developing countries to reflect local issues relevant to sustainability. The framework is based on the integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge to reflect the sustainability of candidate projects. This is achieved through a participatory approach to integrate inputs from system users and providers to produce a term defined as the Localized Sustainability Score (LSS). The LSS of the projects are then used to produce a relative ranking of potential projects, for use as a decision support for project screening and selection. Proof-of-concept development of the proposed LSS framework is presented via a preliminary case study in Accra–Ghana and the results indicate that the framework adequately represented local sustainable transport needs, priorities and perceptions. The LSS determined for some selected projects maintained the original relative rankings that were already derived using conventional methods. The LSS also has the added advantage of evaluating projects of different scales, which were not easy to evaluate together by conventional methods.     

Evaluating locational accessibility to the US air transportation system

Although there are hundreds of airports that support commercial air passenger traffic in the United States (US), not all areas are equivalently served by the commercial air transportation system. Locations in the US differ with respect to their level of access to the commercial air network and their overall accessibility within the system. Given the complexity of the domestic commercial air passenger network and supporting infrastructure, past research has only been able to provide a limited assessment of locational accessibility within the United States. To address these complexities, this paper proposes a new metric that incorporates measures of access to air transport as well as accessibility within air transportation networks. Using a comprehensive dataset on scheduled airline service, the developed approach is then applied to the US domestic commercial passenger air transportation network to explore geographic differentials in accessibility. Results suggest marked differences between core-based statistical areas throughout the US.     

The insurance institute for highway safety: research arm of the US insurers and servant of the public

Smeed and Haddon were among the first to recognize that deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes were amenable to scientific study and systematic control. In the United States, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety undertakes research on ways to reduce motor vehicle crash losses on the principles developed by these early pioneers. It communicates the scientific findings to a wide audience. Recent Institute research has shown that raising the licensing age and imposing night‐time driving curfews on the youngest drivers can substantially reduce crashes. Institute research has also been influential in leading to a law penalizing states that fail to enact a minimum purchase age of 21 for alcohol. Other Institute work demonstrating that a single, central, high‐mounted brake‐light can greatly reduce the frequency of rear‐end crashes has resulted in federal regulations requiring these lights on all new cars. Field tests of anti‐lacerative windshields have led to changes in federal regulations. Surveys of seat‐belt use under recently passed state laws show that use increases with the laws though to not nearly as high levels as in Great Britain. Long supported by Institute research, air bags are beginning to reappear in the market‐place. Insurance industry support for such activities follows a long tradition of support for loss reduction measures in many fields.     

Leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory to build climate resilience in transport infrastructure

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to transport infrastructure that include disrupted operations, reduced lifespan and increased reconstruction and maintenance costs. Efforts to decrease the vulnerability of transport networks have been largely limited to understanding projected risks through governance and administrative efforts. Where physical adaptation measures have been implemented, these have typically aligned with a traditional “engineering resilience” approach of increasing the strength and rigidity of assets to withstand the impacts of climate change and maintain a stable operating state. Such systems have limited agility and are susceptible to failure from “surprise events”. Addressing these limitations, this paper considers an alternate approach to resilience, inspired by natural ecosystems that sense conditions in real-time, embrace multi-functionality and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. Such systems embrace and thrive on unpredictability and instability. This paper synthesises key literature in climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience theory to propose a shift in paradigm for transport infrastructure design, construction and operation, towards engineered systems that can transform, evolve and internally manage vulnerability. The authors discuss the opportunity for biomimicry (innovation inspired by nature) as an enabling discipline for supporting resilient and regenerative infrastructure, introducing three potential tools and frameworks. The authors conclude the importance of leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory, building on the achievements in engineering resilience over the past century. These findings have immediate practical applications in redefining resilience approaches for new transport infrastructure projects and transport infrastructure renewal.     

The strategic transportation research study — Its origins and purposes

The highway industry in the United States spends about $35 to $40 billion annually. Management of the industry is almost wholly decentralized. This decentralization plus diminishing fuel tax revenues used to finance road improvements have caused road research efforts to decline to a very low level. Comparisons between funds for highway research and those spent by private firms in similar industries show that private firms spend from 5 to 12 times the rate of highway agencies. The problem of how much to spend on research is difficult both for private-sector and for public-sector enterprises. The level of research spending is shown to correlate well with both profitability and growth in U.S. firms. Four methods used for making research decisions in the private sector are discussed. The goals of the Strategic Transportation Research Study (STRS), which is being conducted by the Transportation Research Board to examine highway and transportation needs, are described.