柳南高速公路事故多发路段鉴别分析及对策

随着交通量的不断增长,高速公路改扩建已成为我国公路工程建设中的一个热点。然而,高速公路运营阶段交通事故统计分析结论对改扩建设计具有重要的指导意义。文章根据柳南高速公路近五年内发生交通事故记录数据,运用统计的方法进行全面分析,采用累积频率曲线法进行事故黑点鉴定,分析交通事故发生的时间和空间规律,从而得出事故多发路段以及事故原因等初步结论,为改扩建工程交通安全改善措施的制定提供依据。     

基于车速的公路交通事故多发位置鉴别新方法

引进国外先进方法,通过道路上车速随线形的连续变化值,得到连续的交通事故率量化值;从而避免了以往判别事故多发位置方法中由于划分路段而导致事故黑点"消峰"或隐藏的缺点,为公路交通事故多发位置鉴别提供了一种新方法.     

高速公路改善工程提高道路安全性能成效分析

文章介绍了高速公路实施改善工程降低交通事故数量的方法,并结合工程案例,分析高速公路事故多发路段所采取的改善工程措施及成效,以期对类似工程起到借鉴作用。     

漳龙高速公路改扩建工程路线方案设计——以金山至乌石山路段为例

漳龙高速公路改扩建工程是我省第一个山区高速公路改扩建项目,项目规模大、沿线地形地质条件极其复杂,同时改扩建需要解决漳州和溪至龙岩新祠段的长大下坡段事故黑点问题,路线方案设计工作难度很大。本文对金山至乌石山路段高速公路现状、改扩建路线方案选定、改扩建效果进行分析及评价。     

基于负二项分布的高速公路事故多发路段风险划分等级方法研究

事故多发路段一直是高速公路安全管理工作的重点问题之一。为了对高速公路事故多发路段风险等级进行划分,文章采用了负二项分布的统计原理,对高速公路事故多发路段进行鉴别,并以3条高速公路事故数据作为分析依据,提出了一种基于统计特征的高速公路事故多发路段风险等级划分方法。研究结果表明:负二项分布可用于高速公路事故多发路段的鉴别,事故路段总数与路段划分长度呈反方向变化;同时引入负二项分布的置信区间上限值可对事故多发路段风险等级进行划分,为高速公路事故多发路段治理排序提供参考。     

高速公路路线设计安全性评价

从目前已建成的高等级公路来看,交通安全的形势越来越严峻.在影响交通安全的诸多因素中,路线设计不当是诱发交通事故的一个重要原因,已建成的高速公路中局部存在的事故多发路段就可证明这一点.因此对高速公路进行安全性评价是预防交通事故的有效手段,高速公路路线设计直接影响着行车的安全性和舒适性,为了提高路线设计水平,保证公路交通安全,因此有必要对路线设计进行安全性评价.     

高速公路连续长下坡路段行车安全分析

连续长下坡路段是高速公路交通事故的多发路段,而载重汽车又占了肇事车辆的绝大多数.从车辆的运行特征、制动性能、超载行驶等方面分析了目前长下坡路段载重车辆事故多发的原因,并采用刹车毂的实测温度来评价车辆的制动性能,以此作为沿线避险车道、加水站等交通安全设施的设计依据.     

高速公路连续长下坡行车安全综合治理措施探讨

山区高速公路连续长坡路段是高速公路重特大恶性交通事故的多发段,本文介绍的高速公路连续长下坡行车安全措施包含设置反坡路段、避险车道、强制休息区(服务区、停车区),完善交通安全设施等,大多数措施都已经应用在典型长下坡路段的工程实践中,并取得较为显著的效果。公路建设相关部门在项目实施过程中可以借鉴运用这些措施,减少交通事故,提高连续长下坡路段的行车安全性。     

“烟雾”下的连环车祸

近期,"烟雾"、"团雾"罪行累累。2012年6月9日晚,宁洛高速公路安徽亳州蒙城段发生连环交通事故,共造成1 1人死亡,59人受伤,一些事故车辆发生火灾,造成事故路段交通严重堵塞。有消息称,这起重大事故的直接起因是受到沿线焚烧秸秆产生烟雾的影响。今年3月到6月,江苏境内高速公路就有三起重大事故与"团     

高速公路二次交通事故的预防策略探讨

高速公路交通事故频频发生,如果在事故发生后能及时检测事故,并采取有效的紧急救援措施,可以极大程度降低事故造成的损失,预防二次连锁事故发生。文章从事故检测、事故响应策略、事故现场管理、事故清除等方面探讨了高速公路二次交通事故的预防技术与策略。     

道路交通事故发生机理与实例分析

交通事故发生机理是认识道路交通事故发生过程、交通事故预防和改善交通安全的基础。文章以道路交通系统为研究对象,分析道路交通事故的形成过程,将交通事故发生机理分为驾驶行为差错类事故发生机理、外部因素突变类事故发生机理、综合性事故发生机理三类,并在此基础上绘制了道路交通事故发生机理图,同时结合国道109线兰州八盘村路段进行了实例分析。     

A Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making Approach for Prioritizing Accident Hotspots in the Absence of Crash Data

Abstract

In an efficient transportation system, traffic safety is an important issue and it is influenced by many factors. In a country like Iran, until now safety improvements are mainly concentrated on road engineering activities, without much attention for vehicle technology or driving behaviour. One important aspect of road safety engineering activities is the so‐called treatment of hotspots or dangerous accident locations. Until recently, accident hotspots were identified and remedied by the esxperts’ personal judgements and a handful of statistics without taking into account other important factors such as geometric and traffic conditions of the road network. This paper therefore aims to define and identify the criteria for accident hotspots, then giving a value to each criterion in order to develop a model to prioritize accident hotspots when traffic accident data is not available. To do this, the ‘Delphi’ method has been adopted and a prioritization model is produced by the use of a ‘Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making’ method. The procedure is illustrated on a collection of 20 road sections in Iran. In addition, the model is validated against an existing database of road sections containing safe locations and hotspots. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the proposed method.     

基于关联规则的重大道路交通事故影响因素分析

相比于一般交通事故,重大道路交通事故的特征及其影响机理会有所差异,本文旨在研究重大道路交通事故的分布特征及其主要影响因素。收集2014至2018年的重大道路交通事故数据,从驾驶员行为、车辆状况、道路线形和时空分布方面对重大道路交通事故的基本特征进行分析,采用关联规则技术深入挖掘重大道路交通事故多因素的影响机理。从人、车、道路和环境四个方面,重点讨论了重大道路交通事故中的两因素和三因素交互作用的影响机理,并据此提出了针对性的事故预防措施。     

A traffic accident morphology diagnostic model based on a rough set decision tree

ABSTRACT

To build a traffic safety feature model and to quantify accident influences caused by some traffic violation behaviors of drivers, an accident diagnostic decision-making model is established. For the purpose of diagnosing accident morphologies, rough set theory is applied and the influence of traffic factors of different accident morphologies is quantified through calculating the degree of attribute importance, selecting core traffic factors and adopting a C4.5 decision tree algorithm. In the paper, road traffic accident data from 2008 to 2013 in Anhui Province are used. Typical rules are selected, targeted strategy proposals are put forward, and then, a scientific and reasonable diagnostic basis is provided for the diagnosis of traffic safety risks and the prediction of potential traffic accidents.     

城乡公交车违规停车的危害性探讨

城乡公交车站点长时间停车等客,站外随意停车等违规现象十分普遍,文章针对这一情况,通过交通事故案例分析,找出城乡公交车违规停车现象存在的原因,指出了违规停车的危害性并提出解决方法.     

Accident cost saving and highway attributes

Two semi-logarithmic regression models are developed to estimate accident rates and accident costs, respectively, for rural non-interstate highways in the state of Iowa. Data on 21,224 accidents occurring between 1989 and 1991 on 17,767 road segments are used in the analysis. Seven road attributes of these road segments are included as predictor variables. Applying the resulting regression models to a rather typical highway upgrade situation, the present value of the accident cost saving is computed. The sensitivity of the estimated cost saving to values for fatal, personal injury, and property damage only accidents is tested.Because factors other than road characteristics greatly influence accident costs, the models developed in this research explain a limited amount of the variance in these costs among road segments. Results of the analysis indicate that the most important attribute associated with accident costs is average daily traffic per lane, followed by conditions requiring passing restrictions and the sharpness of curves. Varying the values for the three categories of accidents shows that results are far more sensitive to the value of personal injuries than fatalities. The feasibility of using predictive models of accident costs in benefit-cost analyses of highway investments is demonstrated.     

Level crossing safety on East Japan Railway Company: Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques

This paper describes the application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to level crossing safety on JR East, the largest of the six private railroads in Japan. The risk of a level crossing accident was defined as the product of the accident rate and the expected consequences per accident. Rail traffic volume, road traffic volume, visibility of the crossing from the road, road gradient, width of the crossing and the type of safety devices at the crossing were shown to influence the accident rate and the collective risk. The mean accident rate at all crossings was 0.74 per million trains. The accident rate was 0.59 per million trains at crossings equipped with barriers, 1.25 at crossings equipped with warning bells and 0.76 at pedestrian crossings. Crossings equipped with obstacle detectors had a lower accident rate (0.12 per million trains) than crossings without detectors (0.43 per million trains). Crossings with visibility less than 20 m had a 50% higher mean accident rate than crossings with visibility greater than 20 m. As the number of tracks increased, the accident rate monotonically increased due to the increased accident exposure. Risk assessment techniques were applied to determine the efficacy of the various level crossing safety devices. In addition to upgrading the safety of crossings, the management techniques stressed the importance of education campaigns in warning the public about the dangers of illegal crossings.     

基于WOS数据库的文献计量分析的城市交通事故态势研究

为从宏观上了解交通事故的研究态势,利用文献计量法对WOS数据库收录的474篇文献进行数据可视化分析。研究发现,发文量历经了零阶段、稳定阶段和上升阶段;中国研究机构数量和发文量都位于世界第一;研究领域形成了由122位作者组成的核心作者群体;研究方向经历了以交通参与者、道路交通事故、交通事故安全为研究目的的变化;关键词分析得出该领域未来的研究热点将集中在交通事故安全、交通事故严重程度及交通事故影响三方面。     

交通事故与公路运输业状况的关联分析

文章针对交通事故与公路运输业状况,结合我国1998-2006年间的交通事故与公路运输业典型指标的统计数据,采用灰色关联分析法对交通事故及公路运输业状况之间的关联度进行了研究,可为政府相关部门加强交通安全管理、抑制交通事故的发生提供一定的科学依据。     

西部公路交通安全应用技术成果推介

西部课题项目＂公路交通安全应用技术研究＂通过对道路交通设施进行系统的分析,提出并确定道路设计、建设、养护以及交通控制与管理方面的安全改善措施,为降低事故率、改善道路安全提供科学依据。本篇对该技术研究成果进行介绍,以进一步推广使用。