A journey from adversary to partnership bus reform in NSW

This paper continues to debate the importance of understanding in the NSW Bus reform process of the relationship between central agencies, service providers, the academic community, key consultants and contractors within the setting of the transport service organisation framework. Sydney is a modern city with heavy rail, light-rail, monorail and an extensive Harbour, with bus services owned by Government as well as private interests. The paper addresses the case for reforms, the approach taken, competition policy, the subsequent development of partnerships, performance of the regulator, passenger benefits, growth and the differences between Metropolitan/Outer Metropolitan and Regional and Rural bus services.     

Overview of public transport policy developments in South Africa

Public transport in South Africa is one of the most burning issues in the transport sector. The government is faced with huge public pressure to improve public transport systems in the face of rising fuel costs, the pending implementation of expensive urban toll road systems in the Gauteng province, and elsewhere in urban environments, public transport safety issues, public transport fleet renewal, especially the commuter rail services, as well as limited resources to fund public transport. As a developing country, the South African Government has pressing funding issues such as funds needed to improve housing for the poor to improve schooling and public health services. Government is also faced with a vocal minibus taxi industry that transports an estimated 65% of all commuters in the country that is also insisting on subsidies for its services.     

Impact of regulation on the performances of long-distance transport services: A comparison of the different approaches in Sweden and Norway

Despite the many socio-economic similarities between Sweden and Norway, differences in jurisdiction, organisation, cooperation, and financing of long-distance passenger train and coach services have led to the development of four distinctively different ways of serving the markets. This paper describes how the train and coach markets have developed in the two countries, with emphasis on regulatory and industrial structure and a couple of performance variables.Looking at passenger rail, both countries separated infrastructure from operation over a decade ago. However, while Norwegian rail is characterised by an almost monopoly supplier, rail services in Sweden are partly decentralised to the responsibility of county authorities and are widely subjected to competitive tendering. The rest of the network is about to be opened up for on-the-track competition. Swedish Rail (SJ) has spent the last decades consolidating its core business (passenger rail) and sold out its other businesses. In contrast, the Norwegian state rail (NSB) has expanded its business to become a major bus operator and property owner, with extensions also into the Swedish market.The coach industry was more recently deregulated in both countries. The Swedish coach market is dominated by privately owned companies operating services to and from Stockholm. In Norway, state-owned NSB is a major coach operator on medium distance routes, and is also the largest partner of Nor-Way Bussekspress which totally dominates long-distance coach services. Further, the Norwegian coach market is characterised by cross-ownership and cooperation which has enabled an extensive route network which covers most of Norway.We find distinct differences in achievements in the two modes and in the two countries. Swedish rail services have succeeded in winning market shares and in renewing and developing both infrastructure and service levels to a greater extent than the Norwegian model. On the other hand, the Norwegian coach market seems to be more developed and efficient compared to its Swedish counterpart.The paper concludes with a discussion on the possible links between the different approaches and the performance observed, with the aim to stimulate further and more detailed research on some important issues.     

Regulating the regulator: The impact of professional procuring bodies on local public transport policy and its effectiveness

During the past 15 years competitive tenders have become a common procedure when procuring local bus services in Europe. In particular, tenders with gross cost contracts and the so-called Scandinavian model have gained popularity, resulting in a vast amount of research on optimal contractual relationships between government and operators. This paper pays attention to a rather neglected part of the Scandinavian model: the construction of professional procuring bodies and their relationship to the local public administration, focusing on its implications for policy steering and service performance.The paper outlines briefly two different perspectives of analyses of organisational models: one perspective is anchored in principal-agent theory and institutional economics; and the other perspective in political science. Empirically, the article is based on an evaluation of the relation between two Norwegian counties and the administrative company responsible for planning and procuring public transport services. This evaluation indicates, firstly, important common challenges for the county administration due to lack of regional administrative competencies in relation to the administrative company, which also hampers the county’s role as coordinator of policy areas of importance for public transport. Secondly, due to increased transaction costs, the establishment of administrative companies does not seem compatible with contracts relying on net cost solutions with huge scope for operator initiatives.     

Workshop 3A: Governance,contracting, ownership and competition issues in public transport: Looking up not down

Workshop 3A focussed on matters of institutional design that seem likely to improve public transport outcomes. It started by defining high level outcome goals, as measures of ultimate public transport success, and then identified the major societal issues that public transport systems can help to resolve. These issues were separately defined for Southern African and western settings. The importance of taking an integrated approach to transport, particularly land use/transport integration, was seen as fundamental to goal achievement. Workshop papers provided many and varied examples of this importance, ranging from PPPs for major public transport projects to system design issues and contracting out of services. The Workshop included detailed discussion on paratransit development in Southern Africa, where relationship management is proving to be critical, in-line with much previous Thredbo discussion about the important role of trusting partnerships. Parallels and contrasts were drawn with paratransit in western settings. Competition in passenger rail was also a focus, with some questioning of the benefits of franchising. Discussion concluded by proposing recommendations for policy and research and suggesting agenda items for future Thredbo Conferences.     

US shipping policy under conditions of a new world economic and political environment

The maritime policy of the US has evolved over more than 100 years from the support of US shipping through mail and fleet auxiliary contracts before the turn of the century, to the present array of direct and indirect Government aids and regulations based on the assumption that a strong maritime industry composed of both US-flag shipping and US-shipbuilding capacity is essential for the economic well-being and defence of the country. Notwithstanding massive direct and indirect aid to the US merchant marine, amounting to well over a billion dollars a year in recent years, US shipping and shipbuilding has declined dramatically and now comprises less than 3% of world shipping. Only 2.8% of US foreign trade by volume and 6% by value is today carried in US flag ships. Government aids constitute well over 33% of total revenues of US-flag shipping.

The traditional argument for US Government support has been the need for cost parity to permit US-flag shipping to compete effectively in international trade against foreign shipping serving the same routes with presumably lower operating costs. This argument is difficult to sustain today, as vessel costs of many other industrialized nations are now about equal to those of US-flag ships.

In 1970 the US enacted a new, vastly more liberal, maritime act for the support of the US maritime industry. Notwithstanding its even more liberal terms and elimination of the strict cost-parity interpretation, the US maritime industry continues its decline. The recent bankruptcy of two old, established subsidized shipping companies has caused tremors in the industry, yet no new ideas, policies, or plans seem to be forthcoming. It is the objective of this paper to study the development and effects of various historic US Government policies relating to the support of the US maritime industry, and evaluate the positions taken by proponents or opponents of the maritime policy leading to the policy development.

The decision processes are studied by evaluating literature on the evolution of Congressional, administration, industry, and labour interest and positions on the issue of Government aid to the maritime industry. The impact and effectiveness of various elements of past and present US maritime policy is evaluated in relation to the stated objectives. The alternatives to these policies are reviewed in the light of the changing US position in international trade, military strategy, and political objectives. In addition the effectiveness of the present and alternative policies is evaluated as it is and will be affected by changing technology in use, composition of ownership, and operations of US-flag shipping and shipbuilding.     

Passenger railway reform in the last 20 years - European experience reconsidered

It is about 20 years since the rail reform process in Europe began with the separation of infrastructure from operations in Sweden. This paper reviews the entire process, examining the objectives of reform, the different models adopted, and the key elements of separation of infrastructure from operations, competition both through open access and franchising and regulation and infrastructure charging. It is concluded that separation of infrastructure from operations involves costs, but is the most effective way of achieving within mode competition. Where operations do not greatly overlap and open access passenger and freight are unimportant, leasing infrastructure to passenger franchisees may be effective, but the model of vertical integration as separate subsidiaries within a holding company structure makes it difficult to ensure a level playing field for new entrants and is only effective where the vertically integrated operator remains dominant.     

Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation

Britain's national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure.     

Overview of public transport policy developments in South Africa

In South Africa, a restructuring of the public transport system is currently under way. In the bus industry the tender for contract system is being implemented, the commuter rail sector is being recapitalised and the minibus taxi industry recapitalization programme is in its early stages. Progress with policy implementation across the modes of transport, modal split trends and issues that hamper the full development of the public transport industry are discussed in this paper. Medium to long term policy and strategy initiatives that will further inform the development of the industry are also highlighted in this chapter.     

Beta comparisons across industries—a Water transportation industry perspective

This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the stock market perception of risk in US listed water transportation companies and seven other main sectors, air transportation; rail transportation; trucks; electricity; gas; petroleum refining; and real estate over the period July 1984-June 1995. This is done by employing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to model the stock returns of each industry and hence compare their betas (systematic risk). Multiequation Regression Models are used for estimation. The findings suggest that the water transportation industry exhibits significantly lower market risk than the average stock and the rail transportation industry, significantly higher systematic risk than the real estate industry, while its systematic risk is insignificantly different from the rest of the industries. These results are useful to investors basing their decisions on relative market exposures to risk in different industries.     

Maritime economics in a Post-Expansion Panama Canal Era

Government recently introduced the Transport Law Reform Bill, which if passed by Parliament, will allow foreign vessels to uplift and discharge cargoes and passengers along the coast of New Zealand. Coastal shipping is part of the domestic transport industry, which has benefitted from deregulation and considerable restructuring over the last decade. This paper provides a brief review of the coastal shipping industry in New Zealand and an overview of international cabotage laws. An alternative open coast shipping policy proposed by the New Zealand Shipping Federation, which is based on ‘level playing fields’ principles, is presented. The scope of cost benefit analysis is outlined and the potential costs and the potential costs and benefits of the Government's open coast shipping policy are summarized. Despite the potential costs to New Zealand of an open coast policy appearing to be considerably greater than the potential benefits. Government officials have not undertaken an empirical cost benefit analysis. The paperr concludes that hte clauses of the Transport Law Reform Bill relating to an open coast policy should be withdrawn and a full empirical cost benefit analysis should be undertaken to determine the best coastal shipping policy for New Zealand.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

A comparison of rail liberalisation levels across four European countries

This paper presents the results of a research into railway regulation and liberalisation in Italy, France, Germany and Spain. The analysis covers the relationship between the State and the rail companies, network access conditions by operators, slot allocating and pricing schemes and how public service obligations are defined, financed and regulated.     

Workshop report - Public policy and transport

This workshop considered the wider public policy goals of a range of transport interventions. Particular attention was paid to assessing the role of integration of the different components of the transport system and of the integration of transport with other economic sectors. This assessment was informed by Ray Pawson’s realist evaluation approach, with its emphasis on the inter-relationships between context, process and outcome. The context was provided by case studies covering small urban areas, large urban areas and inter-urban corridors. The three key processes identified related to a regulated system with public ownership and control, a deregulated system with private sector ownership (‘competition in the market’) and a system in which there was public planning of the transport system but private provision (‘competition for the market’). Outcomes can be assessed using cost-benefit analysis tools to determine impacts on economic welfare or more qualitative approaches can be used to determine the extent to which accessibility or sustainability goals have been achieved. The evidence provided suggests that wider public policy goals are more important for urban than for inter-urban transport and it thus in urban areas where integration should be pursued with most vigour. The most relevant process for achieving this would seem to be variants of the competition for the market model. Some policy recommendations are made and implications for further research and for future conferences assessed.     

Engaging paratransit on public transport reform initiatives in South Africa: A critique of policy and an investigation of appropriate engagement approaches

A number of South African cities are planning integrated public transport networks that rely on the introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), in line with similar trends to expand or upgrade public transport services in emerging and industrialised urban transport markets around the globe. In addition, BRT in South Africa is being used as a mechanism to drive reform in the dominant yet highly fragmented paratransit sector, inspired by similar processes particularly in Latin American cities such as Bogotá, Mexico City, and Santiago de Chile. Thousands of paratransit operators would have to formalise their businesses, or merge into new or existing operator entities in order to participate in the new systems. There is, however, an absence of accessible business plans and regulatory regime proposals around which paratransit can be engaged to convince it to alter its current modus operandi. A large number of national, regional and local paratransit groupings have furthermore indicated their resistance to the planned networks on the grounds of insufficient consultation, an unclear future role in the system and employee redundancies. Should this deadlock not be resolved, it seems unlikely that the planned networks will be realised in the proposed timeframes, if indeed at all. This paper investigates the South African passenger transport policy framework that has contributed to the current deadlock, and explores appropriate approaches to engaging paratransit operators on a system of contracting, competition and ownership that recognises the sector’s aspirations and fragmented nature, yet contributes towards improved passenger transport services. It is the authors’ view that paratransit reform is a highly context-specific process, even at the sub-city level, and that this could prevent transferring paratransit regulatory and integration approaches across countries, and even cities in the same country, without adaptation to local conditions.     

The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom

An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.     

Enhancing the competitiveness of Korea’s container shipping industry through structural improvements

ABSTRACT

After the collapse of Hanjin Shipping in 2016, Korea faced the task of reconstructing its container shipping industry by enhancing the competitiveness of its shipping companies in a rapidly evolving market environment. Responding to this need for policy design, this study first attempts to understand the industry based on the shipping ecosystem, which comprises the following four areas: shipping finance, collection of cargo, acquisition of ships, and partnership among carriers. Second, it lists the structural problems, along with the remedial policy alternatives, that were identified after conducting in-depth interviews with industry experts, which included mid-level managers. Third, it conducts an importance-performance analysis to classify problems according to their importance and performance, followed by an analytic hierarchy process analysis to define the priorities of policy alternatives. Finally, drawing on the empirical results, the paper concludes with suggestions on an integrated policy package for the container shipping industry.     

Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

Promoting social inclusion in a deregulated environment: Extending accessibility using collective taxi-based services

Bus based public transport has enjoyed revitalisation in many urban areas but outside large towns and cities its provision and quality remains erratic. Many rural settlements have infrequent services giving rise to social exclusion through transport disadvantage.The UK Government highlighted a need in Towards a Sustainable Transport System (2007) for radical new thinking on rural accessibility to help meet goals of quality of life and accessibility for all and to help meet the challenge in finding carbon friendly ways of meeting rural transport needs. This paper reports work undertaken for the Commission for Integrated Transport, an advisory body to UK Government, on how shared taxi-schemes could be developed within a deregulated environment to meet rural accessibility needs. This is based on an analysis of institutional barriers and comparison between successful mainland European schemes and UK schemes. The paper considers economic viability and the levels of subsidy currently used to provide accessibility in rural areas to show the potential for making current expenditure on rural transport in the UK ‘work harder’ to deliver a collective taxi-based service as part of the public transport mix so as to increase rural accessibility.     

关于轨道交通机场线开行快慢车组合运营模式的设计探讨

通过对城市轨道交通机场线客流特征的分析,根据机场线的功能定位和机场与市区的距离,以及机场线的旅行时间目标分析,选择机场线的速度目标值,提出机场线开行快慢车组合运营模式。以郑州市机场线设计为实例,通过开行快慢车组合运营模式来解决机场客流快速通行需求与通勤线路旅行速度较低的矛盾。