Have tropical marine protected areas worked? An initial analysis of their success

A multinomial choice framework was used to analyze data from hypothetical storm forecast scenarios administered via mail survey to a random sample of U.S. Gulf Coast residents. Results indicate that the issuance of a mandatory evacuation notice and the presence of higher wind speeds had the largest influence on increasing the likelihood of evacuation. Age, race, disability, distance, and education were significant in explaining one's decision to wait relative to choosing to evacuate. Blacks and disabled individuals were strictly less likely to wait and more likely to make an immediate evacuation decision. Hurricane Katrina evacuees and those with an evacuation destination identified were also more likely to decide to evacuate, but were also more likely to wait before deciding. Results indicate that residents of mobile homes were more likely to either evacuate or wait before making a decision, but strictly less likely not to evacuate. Respondents very confident in being rescued were strictly more likely not to evacuate. Results indicate that not having an evacuation destination identified was the most influential factor regarding the likelihood of not knowing what choice to make.     

On the nature and sorces of controversy in the economic analysis of the liner shipping industry†

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3–5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one—quality tankers—can operate both market segments.     

Is the bus transport contracting system in South Africa leading to trusting relationships between contracted parties? An analysis of funding issues and the impact on relations between government and operators

The 1996 South African White Paper on National Transport policy provided the guidelines for the restructuring of the commuter bus industry. The restructuring objectives were based on improving the competitiveness of and service levels within the industry through a competitive tendering regime, the selective implementation of negotiated contracts and the general transformation of the industry to also include improved transparency in the funding arrangements between government and operators.In order to set the context of the paper, a brief overview is provided of the progress made with policy implementation and the background to funding issues that are experienced in the bus transport sector. To gauge the impact of the funding issues on the relationship between government and operators, a survey of the largest contracted operators was undertaken to determine, amongst other, how these funding issues have potentially impacted on trusting relationships between contracted parties.     

The UN’s 2030 Agenda for sustainable development and the maritime transport domain: the role and challenges of IMO and its stakeholders through a grounded theory perspective

In September 2015, the United Nations (UN) officially adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development together with 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) (UN, 2016). The attainment of the SDGs requires a strong commitment by all UN Member States, not least by the Member States at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This empirical research aims to identify the role and challenges of stakeholders at IMO, when implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda in the international maritime transport domain using a grounded theory approach. This paper describes the methodology and the analytical process undertaken and presents the main findings based on empirical data. The results are presented as a set of six propositions. The first proposition presents the phenomena engulfing Member States at IMO stemming out from lack of knowledge and policy incoherency on the 2030 Agenda at national level. The other five propositions suggest how these challenges could potentially be best alleviated through an IMO-led strategy on sustainable development within the context of the 2030 Agenda, supported by an appropriate governance structure that sees the introduction of strategic actors for coordinating the implementation of the SDGs at national level. With the support of a Task Force, and by also making use of the IMO Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS), to create more awareness and ownership, the strategic actors could work towards balancing the three dimensions of sustainable development—the economic, the environmental, and the social dimensions—which were found to be imbalanced in the international maritime transport domain.     

An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development is presented by exploring the relationship between individual company’s rates and aggregated market rates, and thus assists in dealing with uncertainty and market volatility for a given business situation. In the second stage, a design of experiment approach is applied to highlight the influence of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model’s performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior model for business needs.     

The regulatory cycle stalled? An assessment of current institutional obstacles to regulatory reform in the provision of road-based public transport in Cape Town, South Africa

Wide-ranging and ambitious proposals for the comprehensive transformation of public transport systems in major South African cities, including Cape Town, have now been in play for a decade or more since the country’s post-apartheid transition. To date, progress in implementing such proposals has been, at best, much delayed and, in Cape Town, appears to have stalled, and may now be significantly compromised. This paper draws on aspects of the concept of regulatory cycles in the bus transport sector to explore some of the key factors which have given rise to this situation, focusing primarily on obstacles embedded in the present institutional framework which governs the provision of road-based public transport in the city. It specifically identifies difficulties in establishing an appropriately mandated and resourced agency at the local level to drive forward the transformation project and the sustained opposition of existing, largely ‘self-regulated’ minibus-taxi operators as key factors which have obstructed the introduction of the proposed regime of ‘regulated competition’. A tentative conclusion is offered to the effect that perhaps a partial or ‘hybrid’ transformation of the public transport system may be the best - and, indeed, possibly the most appropriate - outcome of the transformation process that can be anticipated under the present and foreseeable future circumstances prevailing in the city.     

Application of analytical model in the prediction of dynamic responses and fatigue damage of flexible risers: Part II – Dynamic analysis of flexible risers in large-scale domain using a direct moment correction method

In recent years, the dynamic responses of flexible risers have been the focus of many researchers. Most flexible risers undergo a substantial level of irregular motion from environmental loadings, which involves a continuous slip of helical wires. The slip of helical wires especially leads to a hysteretic effect by reducing the bending stiffness, making it hard to predict the dynamic responses of flexible risers. The current study, as an extension to Part I, presents a new large-scale dynamic analysis method for flexible risers. The suggested method creates a large-scale model for the dynamic analysis that considers a geometric and bending nonlinearity of flexible risers. The kinematics of each beam element is formulated based on a Green-Lagrangian strain and the interaction with the seabed, providing a realistic analysis of flexible risers. In particular, the current study introduces a direct moment correction method that modifies the internal force vector using an improved analytical model. The improved analytical model is assigned at each node of the large-scale model and estimates an accurate bending hysteresis curve considering the effect of shear deformation and varying tension. The suggested method corrects the bending moment and shear force of all beam elements based on the bending hysteresis curves obtained from the improved analytical model, by which a complex bending behavior of flexible risers is reflected in a large-scale domain. As a result, this study achieves a more accurate prediction of the dynamic responses and fatigue damage of flexible risers. A new dynamic analysis program, called OPFLEX, is developed herein based on the suggested analysis method. Using the developed program, the current study conducts several numerical investigations to identify the effect of the shear deformation and varying tension. Consequently, it is confirmed that the shear deformation of internal layers reduces the fatigue damage of helical wires by delaying the increase of internal stress. It is also identified that the effect of varying tension deteriorates the fatigue life of flexible risers through a continuous change of contact pressure during bending.     

The concept of “shipowner” under new maritime labor law (MLC, 2006): does the shipowner own the ship? (comparative analysis of national law of Denmark,Finland, Germany,Norway, and the United Kingdom)

The identification of the responsible shipowner is essential for seafarers in order to claim payments and compensation in respect of their employment on board a ship. Often this may be difficult because of corporate arrangements and the many intermediaries traditionally involved in ship operation. The Maritime Labour Convention 2006 (MLC, 2006), adopted by the International Labour Conference (ILC) 94th (Maritime) Session in 2006, entered into force on August 2013; it significantly affects the shipowner’s responsibility in respect to seafarers’ employment. Taking into account the mentioned issue, the article examines the concept of “shipowner” under the MLC, 2006 and presents comparative analysis of the relevant national law implementing the MLC, 2006 in Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom.