Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: An initial assessment of bus deregulation

Local buses in Britain, outside London, were ‘deregulated’ as a result of the 1985 Transport Act, with most of the organisational changes implemented in 1986 but many of the ownership changes occurring over a longer period. By contrast, in London, the 1984 London Regional Transport Act introduced a system of comprehensive tendering – but it took 10 years for the organisational and ownership changes to be fully implemented. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? An econometric model of the demand for local bus services in Britain is outlined and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and bus kms to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Some analyses of subsidy and of costs will also be outlined. This will then permit the examination of welfare change by estimating changes in consumer and producer surpluses, updating earlier studies. It is found that outside London, bus demand declined strongly, at least up to the year 2000 and some of this reduction can be ascribed to deregulation. By contrast in London, demand has generally been increasing. However, in both areas operating costs also declined strongly, again up to 2000, but since then there have been strong increases in costs and subsidy. Our initial finding is that there are net welfare increases both outside and inside London, but with welfare increases per capita being five times greater in London than elsewhere. However, sensitivity analysis shows that our results are sensitive to the specification of the modelling system and assumptions made concerning the counterfactual, particularly for the results for London.     

Public transport in towns - Inevitably on the decline?

Bus transport in Linköping, a town of 140?000 people, was strongly on the increase up to the beginning of the 1980s, when a negative trend-break occurred. A demand model is developed which explains both the ongoing decline and the preceding increase. Based on this model, it is examined whether a change of the current bus transport policy towards an optimal pricing and investment policy from a social point of view could evoke a new and positive trend-break. Taking current trends in the exogenous factors into account it would. However, this could depend on a possible revival of bicycling in towns.     

The impact of compliance measures on the operation of a bus system: The case of Transantiago

In a regulated bus system operated by private companies, pecuniary incentives can be of primary importance to ensure the quality of the operation and the level of service, especially when there are only a few companies and basically no competition among them. The case of Transantiago, in the capital city of Chile, provides a good example of this. The very ambitious Transantiago project, implemented in 2007 in Santiago, integrated the bus and the subway systems, changing the route structure of the bus services, introducing a common and integrated fare system and electronic payment device, and tendering the operation of approximately 4,600 buses (which by the launch of the system in February 2007 had increased to 5600) to 10 private companies replacing some 4000 small operators which owned 8000 buses. In the beginning, the system faced huge difficulties. Operators' revenue formula basically consisted of a fixed payment, which changed slightly with the actual patronage. This quickly turned out to be a problem, and as technological support became available (several months after the launch), compliance measures were implemented, directly affecting the operators' revenue. The first measure considered the seat/standing places per hour of the buses in operation, for each company, and compared it to the theoretical figure. As a result, buses operating during peak hours increased from 4600 to 5600 in just two months. Subsequent indexes included service frequency and regularity, as well as effective bus-km, aggregated by company first and later by service. This paper shows how the successive implementation of these performance indexes had an impact on the operation of Transantiago in the first years, discusses the difficulties faced to implement them and highlights the importance of technological support to make possible the application of adequate compliance measures.     

A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services

Choosing between the competing approaches to providing enhanced bus services requires the ability to predict the effects on patronage and overall benefits to society in terms of Value of Resources Consumed (VRC) of any proposed change. One common approach uses the Mohring model of 1972 and its successors to optimise one or more aspects of the supply of transit services given various level of demand. This paper simulates the operation of a simple circular bus route using the equations of a basic Mohring type model and a Decision Support System (DSS) to endogenise demand under the assumption that there is a fixed demand for travel but commuters can choose between the bus and private vehicle. The selected approach recognises that demand for a particular mode of travel is predicated on the speed of the vehicle in service which is itself determined by the demand for that vehicle (in this model or boarding and alighting time) rather than being determined exogenously. This creates an iterative feedback mechanism whereby changes to the attributes of the bus and car alter mode choice and the speed in service of the bus which, in turn, alters mode choice. The simulation is used to predict changes to patronage and VRC under scenarios regarding changes to the transport network (in terms of fares and running costs, frequency and spacing of bus stops) using parameters from both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL). The results demonstrate that there are large differences in the size and, in some cases, direction of predicted changes to patronage, VRC and revenue, depending on whether the parameters of the MNL or MMNL model are used.     

Market role and regulation of extensive urban minibus services as large bus service capacity is restored - Case studies from Ghana, Georgia and Kazakhstan

In some cities, the degeneration and collapse of formal bus services has allowed large-scale minibus operations to become established but, over time, city authorities and municipal bus operators regain at least part of their operating capacity and seek to regain their market share. This paper examines and compares three case studies: Accra, Tbilisi, and cities of Kazakhstan. It examines the development of the urban minibus services market as conventional bus services went into decline, the gradual re-emergence of large buses, how the authorities have viewed the minibuses as circumstances change, and market and regulatory strategies followed by city authorities.     

Public transport policy for central-city travel in the light of recent experiences of congestion charging

Excellent public transport which makes the private car a minority mode of central-city travel is a necessary condition for a political process towards the introduction of congestion charges. However, the charging system costs in London and Stockholm have proved to be unexpectedly high. Therefore, before these costs come down to an affordable level, zero-fares for central-city travel and stricter parking policy would be a first-best combination in many cities, always provided that the public transport is really competitive. A bold venture in public transport development is consequently the top priority irrespective of the transport pricing policy direction.     

The efficiency of congestion charging: Some lessons from cost–benefit analyses

This paper addresses methodological issues in cost–benefit analysis (CBA) regarding congestion charging schemes. Despite suspicion on the reality of travel time savings, it is argued that these savings are a conservative value of surplus gained from a congestion scheme. The methodology of measurement of travel time reliability is not yet stabilised, but the literature review suggests that it may take a growing share of benefits in the future. Sensitivity tests performed on the London and Stockholm case studies with a simulation model underline the need to accurately measure speeds, while the value of travel time appears less critical. Finally, the impact of costs of public funds on public accounts is greatly significant and may increase in the future.     

Escorting economies: Networked journeys,household strategies and resistance

This paper is an exploration of strategies used by households to ensure safe journeys for household members. It has been long been argued that women's travel demand is suppressed. There is no doubt that this is an important issue simply on the grounds that women make up one half of the population but it is also timely and pertinent for policy makers and practitioners as legislation at national and international level asserts and legitimates rights to access, safety and security as demonstrated in the European Union's assertion in the 2007 Green Paper that “Every EU citizen should be able to live and move in urban areas with safety and security”. An understanding of social networks, reciprocity and exchange within and between households is integral to our understanding of travel demand. This paper, through an exploration of micro-social practices, identifies competencies and strategies, such as skills of transaction negotiation, scheduling among household members and across households, escorting, social synchronisation and cost sharing in women's travel, which add to our theoretical understanding of household coping strategies and practices to overcome exclusion. This paper brings together contemporary and historical evidence on the strategies and competencies used by women and in households to ensure safe travel for household members. There is a paucity of data on networked practices and resources which impacts on the efficacy of social policy and societal aspirations for sustainability and inclusion.     

农民的利益补偿问题

在我国,农民作为最大的一个社会群体,却在很长一段时间里处于弱势群体的状态。解放初,国家为完成工业化的原始积累通过"剪刀差"牺牲了转移农民的利益,造成了我国城镇居民和农民收入的巨大差距。对农民进行利益补偿,是影响到我国经济健康发展、社会稳定的关键因素。利益补偿要坚持可持续发展、效率和公平并重、损失与补偿对等原则三项原则。     

Social Networks of Alaska Fishing Communities

Fishing community social networks function as channels for transfer of fishery knowledge, resources, and business transactions that help mitigate risks and shocks associated with altered access to fishery resources. Research on such networks in Alaska is limited despite their cultural importance and community reliance on fisheries. We contribute to scholarship of fishery social networks by assessing Alaska fishing community perspectives of challenges related to fisheries policy and management, and the existing social networks that aid in overcoming these challenges. Our findings show that the greatest challenges fishing communities face pertaining to fishery management are high costs of participating in catch share programs, restricted subsistence fishing activity due to decline in salmon, and complex regulations. Social networks exist for coping with these challenges; fishery information, and resources such as food, fuel and medicines are shared between communities. However, networks for accessing fishery support services are centralized in fewer larger communities and hubs such as Anchorage. Smaller and remote communities are the most compromised in this regard given the distance they must travel to access fishery support services. Leveraging social networks for sharing resources and improving fishery support services in smaller communities will increase their adaptive capacity and ability to maintain participation in Alaska fisheries.     

Methodology for calculating passenger capacity in bus rapid transit systems: Application to the TransMilenio system in Bogotá, Colombia

Transit textbooks and engineering manuals indicate that the capacity of Bus Rapid Transit –BRT – systems does not exceed 20,000 passengers per hour per direction. The implementation of the TransMilenio BRT System, in Bogotá, Colombia, showed that the systematic combination of multiple platforms at stations, overtaking lanes, level boarding, prepayment, large buses with multiple doors, express and local services, and traffic engineering measures at intersections, allow for very large passenger throughput. Measurements indicate actual throughput of 43,000 passengers per hour per direction with average bus occupancy of 150 passengers per articulated bus, and a commercial speed of 22–24 km/h. According to special formulas developed for the analysis of high capacity BRT corridors, the critical section of TransMilenio has a practical capacity of 48,000 passengers per hour per direction with its existing infrastructure and 150 passengers per bus – 35,000 passengers per hour per direction with 110 passengers per bus. Changes in existing infrastructure, such as additional platforms, higher capacity vehicles, non-grade facilities at critical intersections, among other improvements, may increase the capacity, speed, reliability and quality of service of the system.     

Towards a simplified performance-linked value for money model as a reference point for bus contract payments

The burgeoning commitment to contracting the delivery of bus services through competitive tendering or negotiated performance-based contracts has been accompanied by as many contract payments schemes as there are contracts. We are now well placed to design a simplified performance-linked payment (SPLP) model that can be used as a reference point to ensure value for money, given the accumulation of experiences throughout the world which have revealed substantive common elements in contracts. Whether the payment to the operator is framed as a payment per passenger or as a payment per service kilometre, the SPLP identifies efficient subsidy outcomes that are linked to a proxy indicator of net social benefit per dollar of subsidy. We illustrate how the SPLP model can be applied to obtain the gross (subsidy) cost per passenger (or per passenger km) from measures of gross cost efficiency and network effectiveness. This model can then be used as part of a benchmarking activity to identify reference value of money prospects in respect of passengers per $ subsidy outlay by adjusting for influences not under the control of the service provider. A single framework to identify contract payments to operators, and to assess (i.e., benchmark) operator performance on critical KPIs, is provided by internalising critical key performance indicators (KPIs) in the design of the SPLP. The proposed SPLP model is sufficiently general to be independent of the procurement method (competitive tendered or negotiated, for example) and of the treatment of revenue allocation (net or gross based contracts), with the additional advantage of being able to assess value for money for government.     

Some economic aspects of conflicts over land use in the coastal zone

Abstract

Recent land use legislation pays particular attention to the coastal zone where age‐old conflicts have recently accelerated. Flexibility is required in policy because visible conflicts are tied into complex physical and social systems which may require changing patterns of land use over time. Public policy is altering property rights and a thorough understanding of the economic and social roles played by those rights is required. Economic models can be used to understand some major changes such as types of alteration of the environment, but may be ignored or misused unless a better understanding of coastal decision processes is developed.     

The conflict between competition policy and the wider role of the local bus industry in Britain

Since the Transport Act of 1985, the local bus industry in Britain (outside London and Northern Ireland) has been subject to deregulation, removing previous restrictions on routes, service levels and fares. This also marked a reversal of the previous emphasis on co-ordination of services provided by different operators, and introduced competition law as applying to other industries to the local bus sector. This has been in conflict with other policy objectives aimed at stimulating greater use of public transport, such as harmonisation of ticketing systems. The underlying issues are examined, and recent changes in policy. The Local Transport Act of 2008 offers an opportunity to resolve some of these problems, and its application in Oxford is discussed as the first substantial example to date. However, a strong conflict remains between the role of competition agencies and other aspects of policy.     

高可靠性船用水密门监控系统

介绍一种船用水密门监控系统,阐述监控主机、控制模块、报警模块、协议转换模块的功能。该系统通过RS485总线进行组网,采用分散控制、集中管理的模块化设计思想,能够现场及远程控制水密门的状态、自动监测系统的各种状态信息,并对系统故障进行实时显示、蜂鸣器报警、记录等功能。提高船舶自动化水平,确保船舶在航行中的安全性。     

规则波作用下沙质岸滩剖面演变研究*

为了探究规则波作用下沙质岸滩的形态变化,在波浪水槽中构建沙质岸滩剖面的演变过程。发现在规则波作用下,沙质岸滩会出现沙坝峰,存在从单一沙坝峰到双沙坝峰的演变过程,且沙坝形成后并非静止不动,而是随时间变化存在离岸和向岸的往复运动。探究水深、周期和植被覆盖对沙质岸滩变化的影响,对其最大冲刷深度、最大淤积深度、冲刷面积和淤积面积进行讨论分析。结果显示,水深的增大会导致沙坝向岸运动,周期的增大会导致岸滩趋于紊乱,植被覆盖对岸滩有稳定作用。     

The economics of port pricing

This short paper is concerned with the problem of improving the methods currently used to price port facilities. It presents a simple economic model of how an optimal pricing policy may be arrived at, employing an adaptation of an interactive supply-demand framework initially developed in the context of allocating car-parking places in urban areas. The model demonstrates the basic economic tenet that charges should be set equal to the full marginal social opportunity cost (M.S.O.C.) of facilities used, with premiums added where capacity restrictions would otherwise lead to excessive queueing. The use of a probability demand curve shows that one of the main fears of the anti-pricing school, namely excessive resource misallocation due to miscalcuations of the marginal cost, tends to be exaggerated. Further, it is argued that many of the other arguments set out against marginal cost pricing of ports are either ill-founded or unlikely to be of practical importance—ports are little different to other goods and services consumed in the economy and standard economic policies apply to them.     

Lessons in ownership, regulation and management from 100 years of bus transport in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka observes 100 years of bus passenger transport in 2007. During this period the country has seen different forms of service providers ranging from private sector monopolies to state sector monopolies. It also has seen several changes in state policy ranging from welfare orientated service provision to entire market determined without any regulation. The existing regulated mixed competition is also characterized by poorly equipped regulators. In conclusion, the paper traces the different stages of failure that have led to the poor quality of bus transport services existing at present.