Future challenges for transport infrastructure pricing in PPP arrangements

In this paper we report the conclusion of a research project dedicated to pricing regimes in public-private partnership contracts for the provision of transport infrastructure (Macário et al., 2009). Several elements have been brought to the bulk of knowledge that supports the design and implementation of public-private partnership in the transport sector. These developments have been achieved in the following domain:

•

Understand difficulties of price setting within the PPP environment, given the potential conflict of interest among the different parties engaged, go beyond the discussion of first best versus second-best price setting mechanisms.

•

Understand the role of government and regulators in the performance of a PPP.

•

Translate the issue of asymmetries of information between parties into a risk taking language.

•

Devise alternative contractual designs that will enable competitive price setting.

•

Understand that a structural element is missing to conciliate the views of the different stakeholders over a PPP: a bridge between infrastructure costs and charges.

The objective of this paper is to overview the main challenges ahead of transport infrastructure pricing, considering the current and likely future policies as well as the field constraints. Moreover, a proposal is formulated to overcome some of the current pitfalls associated to transport infrastructure pricing.     

Study on the preciseness of hot spot stress of web-stiffened cruciform welded joints derived from shell finite element analyses

A new simple and accurate shell FE-based structural Hot Spot Stress (HSS) determination method for web-stiffened cruciform joints has been proposed. Local stress of welded joints in full-scale bulk carrier (BC)’s lower stool models subject to bending and pressure loadings are examined. HSSs determined by the proposed method are compared with those derived by Lotsberg’s method and the conventional 0.5t-1.5t extrapolation. As results, following are found:

(1)

The local stress of full-scale BC lower stool models with various stool angle and plate thickness can be calculated accurately solely from shell FE results by means of the proposed method.

(2)

HSSs of welded joints in full-scale BC lower stool models subject to bending and pressure loadings derived by the proposed method show good agreement with the target HSSs determined from fine solid models. This demonstrates the validity of the proposed method for actual ship structures under the real load.

(3)

The excessive safety allowance of HSS determined by the conventional 0.5t-1.5t extrapolation can be reduced substantially by adopting Lotsberg’s method or our proposal. The proposed HSS determination method gives more accurate estimates compared to Lotsberg’s method under the conditions chosen, and the application range of the proposed method is equal to or wider than Lotsberg’s method.

     

The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up approach to transport, land-use and the economy

The project appraisal method in the Netherlands distinguishes direct effects, indirect distribution effects and indirect generative effects. Transport models are generally available for calculating the benefits of transport projects to travellers as part of the direct effects. The TIGRIS XL model, a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model, adds indirect distribution effects for the housing and labour market, by modelling changes in the spatial distribution of jobs and residents. This paper describes the current TIGRIS XL model and how it can be applied in the evaluation of transport projects. It refers to work done with the TIGRIS XL model to improve the calculation of the direct benefits by applying the so-called ‘logsum’ method. Finally it discusses ideas on how to extend the TIGRIS XL model to address indirect generative effects as well.The current TIGRIS XL model, its integration with the National Model System (the standard tool for the Dutch government to analyse the effects on passenger transport) and basic design principles are the starting point of such an exploration. These design principles include:

•

an emphasis on detail, both spatial as well as in socio-economic segments, to account for differences in the availability of choice alternatives and in choice behaviour, and to provide impacts by region and socio-economic group;

•

the requirement that the relationships used rest on an empirical foundation.

The post-processing methods proposed on this paper for the calculation of the direct benefits and indirect generative effects are consistent with these design principles. To calculate the indirect generative effects, a post-processing module is proposed which transforms changes in travel times and land-use into agglomeration effects. These agglomeration effects combine several of the generative effects, like scale economies, an increasing variety of products, labour market matches and knowledge spill-over. The effects of changes in the agglomeration indicator on productivity can be estimated with existing data sources, as was demonstrated in the UK (Graham, 2005).     

The distribution of the benefits of waterfront reform

In this paper we introduce, for the first time, a methodology from the most recent literature of finance to reveal the duration of shipping cycles and then show the benefit of the use of this information to make more successful shipping loans. This is so as banks are willing to finance, during boom periods, shipping loans for new buildings but by this way ‘create’ oversupply and thus depress the freight market by their own actions. The information about cycles, especially their forecasting, is mostly important as shipping loans are based on project financing/cash flow financing, which means that ship revenue is of utmost importance. The Rescaled Range Analysis is applied here to 379 monthly freight trips—made stationary—between 1971 and 2002 (July), due to Hurst 1 Hurst, HE. 1950. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. April1950. pp.770–808. American Society of Civil Engineers. Paper No. 2447 [Google Scholar] and elaborated and popularized by Mandelbrot 2 Mandelbrot, BB. 1975. Stochastic models for the earth's relief, the shape and the fractal dimensions of the coastlines, and the number-area rule for islands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1975, USA 72. pp.3825–3828. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]. The most important effect, however, is that shipping freight series exhibit non-normality and long-run dependence rendering the use of random walk models such as GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) problematic. Thus an adequate literature review is carried out with criticism against the models used. The cycles have been calculated as equal to 4.5 years and 2.25 years. This is almost compatible with the most recent paper of Stopford 3 Stopford, M. 21 September 2001. “Forecasting the dry bulk, tanker and container markets”. In Maritime Cyprus 21 September,  [Google Scholar]. The Hurst exponent was found equal to 0.93, alternating over the periods examined (0.65, 0.73, 0.62, 0.59 and 0.55) and indicating long-term persistence but seriously away from normal/random walk domain. Most studies have said the same using the Jarque--Bera test for normality but provided no alternative.     

Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

市场随机波动下干散货和原油船投资决策研究

运用实物期权博弈理论,建立了航运市场随机波动情况下干散货和原油船舶的投资决策模型,得出了承运人之间同质竞争和差异化竞争时船舶的最优投资准则.理论研究和实证分析均表明:承运人的收益和投资船舶的边际收益随航运市场规模和风险的增加而增加;最优的船舶投资量与航运市场的规模和风险正相关;随着航运市场竞争的加剧,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈下降趋势;随着承运人之间服务差异化程度的增加,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈上升趋势.     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

浅析我国矿业开发项目融资现状

本文首先分析了我国矿业项目融资的特点,然后就我国矿业项目目前的几种融资方式进行了比较分析,最后提出在项目的不同阶段,选择不同的融资方式;不同主体,选择不同的融资方式;加强"项目融资"在我国的应用;改善融资环境等建议,以期对我国矿业企业进行融资和政府机关制定相关政策提供依据。     

Determining the Scour Dimensions Around Submerged Vanes in a 180° Bend with the Gene Expression Programming Technique

Submerged vanes are installed on rivers and channel beds to protect the outer bank bends from scouring. Also, local scouring occurs around the submerged vanes over time, and identifying the effective factors on the scouring phenomena around these submerged vanes is one of the important issues in river engineering. The most important aim of this study is investigation of scour pattern around submerged vanes located in 180° bend experimentally and numerically. Firstly, the effects of various parameters such as the Froude number (Fr), angle of submerged vanes to the flow (α), angle of submerged vane location in the bend (θ), distance between submerged vanes (d), height (H), and length (L) of the vanes on the dimensionless volume of the scour hole were experimentally studied. The submerged vanes were installed on a 180° bend whose central radius and channel width were 2.8 and 0.6 m, respectively. By reducing the Froude number, the scour hole volume decreased. For all Froude numbers, the biggest scour hole formed at θ?=?15°. In all models, by increasing the Froude number, the scour hole volume significantly increases. In addition, by increasing the submerged vanes’ length and height, the scour hole dimensions also grow. Secondly, using gene expression programming (GEP), a relationship for determining the scour hole volume around the submerged vanes was provided. For this model, the determination coefficients (R²) for the training and test modes were computed as 0.91 and 0.9, respectively. In addition, this study performed partial derivative sensitivity analysis (PDSA). According to the results, the PDSA was calculated as positive for all input variables.     

航运企业的最优资本结构及其确定

随着我国市场经济体制的建立与投、融资体制的改革，企业已成为投、融资的主体，其资本结构问题相应地成为了企业财务管理中的核心问题之一。本文从航运业的固有特性出发，论述了航运企业的资本结构及其与企业收益之间的关系，在这一基础上，提出了航运企业的最优资本结构及其确定方法，并对影响航运企业资本结构的因素进行了分析。     

Numerical Study of the Transition Between Reentrant Jet and Twin Vortex Flow Regimes in Ventilated Cavitation

Contrary to natural cavitation, ventilated cavitation is controllable and is not harmful. It is particularly used to reduce the drag of the hydraulic vehicles. The ventilated cavitation is characterized by various gas regimes. The mechanisms of ventilated cavitation are investigated in the present work with CFD based on a 2D solver. The attention is especially focused on the transition between the reentrant jet and twin vortex regimes. The results confirm that the product of ventilated cavitation number and Froude number is lower than 1 (σ_cFr?<?1) in the twin vortex regime, while it is higher than 1 (σ_cFr?>?1) in the reentrant jet regime, as reported in the literature. Further analysis shows that ventilated cavitation is significantly influenced by the natural cavitation number.     

Hydrodynamic optimization of ship hull forms in shallow water

A computational method for improving hull form in shallow water with respect to wave resistance is presented. The method involves coupling ideas from two distinct research fields: numerical ship hydrodynamics and nonlinear programming techniques. The wave resistance is estimated by means of Morinos panel method, which is extended to free surface flow and considers the influence of finite depth on the wave resistance of ships. This is linked to the optimization procedure of the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) technique, and an optimum hull form can be obtained through a series of iterations giving some design constraints. Sinkage is an important factor in shallow water, and this method considers sinkage as a hydrodynamic design constraint. The optimization procedure developed is demonstrated by selecting a Wigley (C _B = 0.444) hull and the Series 60 (C _B = 0.60) hull, and new hull forms are obtained at Froude number 0.316. The Froude number specified corresponds to a lower than critical speed since most of the ships operating in shallow water move below their critical speed. The numerical results of the optimization procedure indicate that the optimized hull forms yields a reduction in wave resistance.     

An Assessment of Integrated Coastal Management Governance and Implementation Using the DPSIR Framework: KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Coastal areas are under increasing pressure driven by demands for coastal space, primarily though population growth, in migration and the need for space for socioeconomic activities. The pressures and associated changes to the coastal environment need to be managed to ensure long-term sustainability. South Africa has enacted an Integrated Coastal Management Act (ICM Act) to facilitate dedicated management of its coastal environment. The implementation has been met with a number of challenges, primarily relating to financial and human capacity constraints, particularly at the local government level. Given that the ICM Act devolves powers to local government, it is imperative that implementation challenges be addressed. This paper focuses on KwaZulu-Natal, one of four South African coastal regions, which is a renowned tourist destination and home to 11.1 million people (Statistics South Africa 2015 Statistics South Africa. 2015. Mid-Year Population Estimates. Statistical release P0302. Pretoria, South Africa: Statistics South Africa. [Google Scholar]). This paper considers the state of coastal management, as well as implementation challenges being experienced at a local governance level, and highlights ways to address these. Data were acquired through questionnaire surveys and semistructured interviews. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to identify relevant ICM issues and concerns and develop potential actions for improving the implementation of coastal management activities and the ICM Act. In the assessment of the ICM governance and implementation to date, a key concern identified was a general lack of coastal management knowledge among officials. It was specifically identified that knowledgeable management and capacity-building required championing from the provincial government in order to more efficiently and effectively implement the objectives of the ICM Act through an improved understanding of the coastal environment, its functioning and management.