Low-cost carriers in Asia: Deregulation, regional liberalization and secondary airports

While the demand for low-cost air transportation is potentially huge in Asia, development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) lags behind the region's overall aviation development, and certainly lags behind the LCC development in North America and Europe. It has been noted that market conditions and the regulatory environment of Asia are different from those of North America and Europe. What are the main differences here; and how do these differences impact market entry and success of Asian LCCs? This paper describes salient features of Asian LCCs and their developments. It examines the impact of Asia's domestic and international airline regulations and airport infrastructure on the performance of its LCCs. We find that the “Southwest effect” may also exist in Asia and that the development of low-cost terminals may compensate, at least partly, the scarcity of secondary airports in the region. The experiences of Thailand and China are investigated as case studies.     

CO2 emission statistics for the world commercial fleet

The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the world commercial fleet. The analysis is based on the Lloyds-Fairplay world ship database for 2007 and produces various emissions statistics of the following major ship types: bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, container vessels, product/chemical carriers, LNG carriers, LPG carriers, reefer vessels, Ro-Ro vessels and general cargo ships. A separate analysis is carried out for small vessels under 400 GRT and for passenger vessels. The main outputs from this analysis for each ship type-size bracket are the emitted grams of CO₂ per tonne-km and an estimate of the total CO₂ produced in a year. The methodology for estimating these statistics is described, and a comparison with other studies is made.     

Incumbent responses to low-cost airline entry and exit: A spatial autoregressive panel data analysis

While the US airline industry has been substantially transformed in recent years by the growth of low-cost airlines, the cost-saving benefits of lower airfares are difficult to gauge empirically. There are two important ways in which this paper contributes to the existing literature on the impact of the low-cost carriers (LCCs). First, the availability of route-level panel data allows us to examine the role of the LCCs in the long-run adjustment of airfares as well as the responses of the incumbent carriers to LCC entry and exit in a dynamic setting. Second, we capitalize on recent developments in spatial econometrics and explicitly model the spatial dependence among adjacent airline routes, an issue often ignored by previous studies. Although most of the pro-competitive effects of LCC entry take place after entry, we find evidence that the incumbent carriers also cut airfares in anticipation of entry by the LCCs. Moreover fares remain lower even after Southwest Airlines exits. Our empirical analysis confirms the spatial dependence among airfares in adjacent routes, provides estimates of the consumer benefits from lower airfares in routes affected by LCCs, and shows that there are substantial indirect benefits, i.e. lower fares in spatially-linked, nearby routes.     

The economic impact of the ATA/Southwest Airlines code-share agreement

This paper examines the economic impact of the code-sharing agreement between ATA and Southwest Airlines, the first time Southwest has chosen to enter markets via a code-share alliance rather than direct entry. We examine the impact of complementary code-sharing on incumbent airline's fares and passenger volumes and also the overall impact on consumer welfare in Denver airline markets. Empirical results show that air fares decreased and passenger volumes increased for incumbent carriers operating on code-shared routes. Further, we find evidence that this code-sharing arrangement increased both consumer and producer surplus. Thus, the well-known “Southwest Effect” is observed not only when Southwest enters a route directly, but also when it enters a route via a code-share agreement with another airline.     

Methodology for calculating passenger capacity in bus rapid transit systems: Application to the TransMilenio system in Bogotá, Colombia

Transit textbooks and engineering manuals indicate that the capacity of Bus Rapid Transit –BRT – systems does not exceed 20,000 passengers per hour per direction. The implementation of the TransMilenio BRT System, in Bogotá, Colombia, showed that the systematic combination of multiple platforms at stations, overtaking lanes, level boarding, prepayment, large buses with multiple doors, express and local services, and traffic engineering measures at intersections, allow for very large passenger throughput. Measurements indicate actual throughput of 43,000 passengers per hour per direction with average bus occupancy of 150 passengers per articulated bus, and a commercial speed of 22–24 km/h. According to special formulas developed for the analysis of high capacity BRT corridors, the critical section of TransMilenio has a practical capacity of 48,000 passengers per hour per direction with its existing infrastructure and 150 passengers per bus – 35,000 passengers per hour per direction with 110 passengers per bus. Changes in existing infrastructure, such as additional platforms, higher capacity vehicles, non-grade facilities at critical intersections, among other improvements, may increase the capacity, speed, reliability and quality of service of the system.     

市场随机波动下干散货和原油船投资决策研究

运用实物期权博弈理论,建立了航运市场随机波动情况下干散货和原油船舶的投资决策模型,得出了承运人之间同质竞争和差异化竞争时船舶的最优投资准则.理论研究和实证分析均表明:承运人的收益和投资船舶的边际收益随航运市场规模和风险的增加而增加;最优的船舶投资量与航运市场的规模和风险正相关;随着航运市场竞争的加剧,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈下降趋势;随着承运人之间服务差异化程度的增加,承运人的收益和最优的船舶投资量呈上升趋势.     

Towards a simplified performance-linked value for money model as a reference point for bus contract payments

The burgeoning commitment to contracting the delivery of bus services through competitive tendering or negotiated performance-based contracts has been accompanied by as many contract payments schemes as there are contracts. We are now well placed to design a simplified performance-linked payment (SPLP) model that can be used as a reference point to ensure value for money, given the accumulation of experiences throughout the world which have revealed substantive common elements in contracts. Whether the payment to the operator is framed as a payment per passenger or as a payment per service kilometre, the SPLP identifies efficient subsidy outcomes that are linked to a proxy indicator of net social benefit per dollar of subsidy. We illustrate how the SPLP model can be applied to obtain the gross (subsidy) cost per passenger (or per passenger km) from measures of gross cost efficiency and network effectiveness. This model can then be used as part of a benchmarking activity to identify reference value of money prospects in respect of passengers per $ subsidy outlay by adjusting for influences not under the control of the service provider. A single framework to identify contract payments to operators, and to assess (i.e., benchmark) operator performance on critical KPIs, is provided by internalising critical key performance indicators (KPIs) in the design of the SPLP. The proposed SPLP model is sufficiently general to be independent of the procurement method (competitive tendered or negotiated, for example) and of the treatment of revenue allocation (net or gross based contracts), with the additional advantage of being able to assess value for money for government.     

Potential Benefits of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems to Alaskan Commercial Fisheries

In this article we attempt to illustrate the potential benefits to Alaskan commercial fisheries expected from enhancements to the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) through changes in fishery management strategies. In particular we show how the use of improved AOOS data in research, stock assessment, and ultimately fisheries management has the potential to result in significant benefits in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska groundfish and Kodiak king crab fisheries. We show through a case study approach that information such as might be provided by an enhanced AOOS could conceivably contribute over $600 million in additional annual revenue in Alaska's groundfish fishery. In addition we estimate that had the information from such a system been available in the 1970s and 1980s the Kodiak king crab stock collapse could have been avoided and $60 million in annual revenues generated. Benefit estimates (as measured by revenue increases) are based on the assumptions that when better data is delivered those data will be integrated into stock assessment models; when better data are integrated into the models the new data will actually improve the reliability of the models; and when the reliability of the models is improved predictions will be accepted by managers or industry members.     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

An optimal containership slot allocation for liner shipping revenue management

In the competitive liner shipping market, carriers may utilize revenue management systems to increase profits by using slot allocation and pricing. In this paper, related research on revenue management for transportation industries is reviewed. A conceptual model for liner shipping revenue management (LSRM) is proposed and a slot allocation model is formulated through mathematical programming to maximize freight contribution. We illustrate this slot allocation model with a case study of a Taiwan liner shipping company and the results show the applicability and better performances than the previous allocation used in practice.     

Testing the SERVQUAL scale in the passenger port industry: a confirmatory study

A key question is whether the service quality instruments developed for other services’ industries may be used to gauge service quality perceptions in shipping. Grounded on similar studies that test the most widely used American service quality instrument, SERVQUAL, in the commercial shipping sector, this study examines its applicability in the passenger shipping realm. Based on a survey of 436 passengers in Piraeus port, SERVQUAL's five main dimensions have been checked regarding their fit with the use of Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results support that this is a valid instrument for measuring service quality in passenger shipping besides certain considerations regarding its dimensionality. A more parsimonious two-factor model seems more applicable and should therefore be also considered. Finally, it is evident from the study that passengers place more importance to the physical than the interactive elements of service to form their overall satisfaction.     

The theory and practice of a carrier's liability under the Athens Convention—the English experience

The effect of the regulation of a carrier's liability by the mandatory application of rules introduced by international convention are considered in the context of a review of the standard terms and conditions employed by major UK passenger carriers reacting to the Athens Convention 1974. It is hoped that by analysing the impact of the Athens Convention upon the British operators who still play a significant part in the international transport of passengers, that light will be shed on the response than can be expected from maritime carriers to the imposition of international convention jurisdiction generally.     

Influence of initial distortion of 3 mm thin superstructure decks on hull girder response for fatigue assessment

This paper investigates the influence of initial distortion of 3 mm thin superstructure decks on hull girder response and fatigue assessment. Part of the traditional superstructure of a prismatic passenger ship is replaced by thin decks with initial distortion amplitude of 0, 1 and 2 times the IACS limit value for thicker plates, i.e. 0, 6 and 12 mm. Both geometrically linear and nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis is used. For reference also traditional superstructure with 5 mm plate thickness is analyzed. Thin straight superstructure decks give 43% of weight reduction and carry approximately 30% less load than corresponding thick straight decks in traditional model. The load that is not carried by thin decks is divided between other traditional decks. The redistribution of forces also happens at the deck level between plates, stiffeners, girders and longitudinal bulkheads. The presence of initial distortion with the shape of one half wave between web frames and stiffeners causes an additional few percent-decrease in forces carried. The results and conclusions are similar for hogging and sagging loading conditions and differences between geometrically linear and nonlinear FE analysis are very small. This means time saving since the panel loading for fatigue assessment can be defined from geometrically linear hull girder response analysis without considering the initial distortions.     

Russia's waterborne trade and transport: issues in market transformation

During the Soviet era most of the Union's international non-oil trade was transported over water. Following the former Soviet Union's break-up, the share of water transport in accomodating Russia's trade has become modest, as the railways carry most goods that are traded domestically or with the new republics of the Commonwealth of Independence States, which are now treated as foreign countries. Adjusting the Russian Federation's water transport industry and related infrastructure to the changed geo-political and regional economic conditions proves difficult. While the country inherited a fair share of the former Soviet merchant fleet, it is deprived of port assets which were originally built to serve all-Union trades but are now located in other republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Major reforms are required to streamline the provision of port services and the ports' commercial performance. The Russian Government took several steps in 1992 which effectively put the national water transport carriers on a commercial footing. The effect has been that many carriers chose to leave the national transport scence and engage in trades which do not include Russia. The Government is now confronted with the need to reduce dependence on foreign-owned vessels and to modernize the national merchant fleet. Difficult policy decisions have to reverse these trends so that national maritime industry asstes become more available to meet the country's needs.     

Programming, optimal pricing and partnership contract for infrastructures in PPPs

The development of various forms of public-private partnerships for the financing, building and operating of public infrastructure has not fundamentally altered the economic calculations involved. This chapter examines to what extent it is necessary, however, to change the way that government uses socio-economic and financial evaluations, whether to optimise investment programming or pricing. Ensuring a coherent match between these two types of optimisation can provide a principle for determining the optimal programming price.We begin by showing that when projects are financed by both users (toll revenues) and taxpayers (subsidies), it is socially beneficial to plan these investments on the basis of the net present value (NPV) provided by each unit of public money invested. This NPV/subsidy ratio must obviously be higher than the public-funding scarcity coefficient or else the investment would destroy more wealth than it would produce.One of the ways of improving this ratio is also to optimise the toll level, since increasing it can lower the subsidy but has an adverse impact on the user surplus, it is essential to set the optimal toll.In the case of an approved project considered in isolation, we show that the optimal toll depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient. If there is no scarcity, the optimal toll is zero. As public-funding becomes scarcer, the optimal toll draws closer to the toll that optimises revenue.In the case of a programme of several projects subject to budget constraint, we show that the optimal toll no longer depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient and that there are several scenarios depending on the relative values of the maximum revenue and the total cost of the project:

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when, whatever the toll, revenue can no longer cover over half of the cost, it is socially beneficial to choose not to levy any toll;

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when there is a toll that covers the total cost, the operator may be left free to set it at the level he sees fit, with the issue of how the profits are to be shared between the franchisee and the franchisor being settled separately;

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when the maximum revenue of the project falls between half and all of the total cost, the value of the toll that maximises the welfare function is lower than the revenue-maximising toll and must therefore be set for the private operator by government.

Thus, the partnership contract must be given a different content in these three cases of optimal pricing.

Preamble

Most of the theoretical studies devoted to optimising public investment programming and infrastructure pricing have, since the work of Jules Dupuit (1844), focused on the salient issues of the transport sector, even though this work was relevant to all sorts of public infrastructure. The analysis presented in this paper deals with transport economics, but in line with this tradition, is also applicable to any field in which public-funding is combined with commercial revenue. For example, the question of determining how the financing of an opera should be shared between taxpayers and opera-goers raises the same type of issues as the optimal combination of tolls and subsidies for financing a motorway project. This report will be focused on these issues. We shall see that certain precautions are called for in investment programming together with some new thinking on pricing principles.     

大陆与台湾通航的客船船型初步分析

分析论证适用于大陆和台湾通航的客船船型。首先预测未来几年台湾与大陆之间往来的客流量及其流向 ,提出拟开辟台—闽间的海峡航线和基隆—上海航线。针对台闽间的海峡航线 ,在列举台湾海峡历年风浪情况的基础上 ,在作技术性能和经济效益综合评估后 ,建议采用 6种复合型高速船型。接着就 6种船型作营运经济估算及其排序 ,作变客位、车位的比较 ,变航速的比较 ,以及与常规客船船型的比较。结论是 :从技术和经济性角度考虑 ,双体气垫船和双体穿浪船较好 ;从客流量和货载量考虑 ,高速客船和常规客船按 5 0 0客位、4 5 - 10 0辆车位设计已能满足要求。从航速考虑 ,宜采用 4 0kn的客船。最后还就适用于基隆—上海航线的船型作简略探讨 ,提出宜采用集装箱—客船和客—滚装船     

长益常城际铁路速度目标值的选择

速度目标值是城际铁路设计时的核心指标,在选取时主要以适应客流需求、与区域其他交通运输方式相协调、与沿线社会经济发展相适应为原则,体现有利于吸引客流、减少工程投资和运营成本的效益最大化原则。速度目标值的选择主要通过本线客流特点、时间目标值的选择和具体多个速度目标值的比选得出。文中以长沙—益阳—常德速度目标值的选择为例,阐述铁路设计中客运专线速度目标值的选择方式和方法。     

Analyzing aviation safety: Problems,challenges, opportunities

This paper reviews the economic literature relating to aviation safety; analyzes the safety record of commercial passenger aviation in the United States and abroad; examines aviation security as a growing dimension of aviation safety; and identifies emerging issues in airline safety and challenges for aviation safety research. Commercial airline safety has improved dramatically since the industry's birth over a century ago. Fatal accident rates for large scheduled jet airlines have fallen to the level where (along many dimensions) aviation is now the safest mode of commercial transportation. However, safety performance has not been evenly distributed across all segments of commercial aviation, nor among all countries and regions of the world. The finding that developing countries have much poorer safety records has been a persistent conclusion in aviation safety research and continues to be the case. Unfortunately, operations data are not available for many of the airlines that experience fatal accidents, so it is not possible to calculate reliable fatality rates for many segments of the worldwide aviation industry. Without more complete information, it will likely be difficult to make substantial improvements in the safety of these operations. Challenges to improving aviation security include: how much to focus on identifying the terrorists as opposed to identifying the tools they might use; determining how to respond to terrorist threats; and determining the public versus private roles in providing aviation security. The next generation of safety challenges now require development and understanding of new forms of data to improve safety in other segments of commercial aviation, and moving from a reactive, incident-based approach toward a more proactive, predictive and systems-based approach.     

肥大型船舶阻力计算方法修正

为了改善部分肥大型船舶的阻力计算方法,提高计算精度和适用性,以兰坡凯勒方法为基础,结合近年来部分典型新造船型,通过计算结果和实验数据的对比分析,探讨计算结果产生偏差的原因,提出适用于新造船型阻力预报的修正方法。将此方法应用于油船和散货船,所得到的计算结果准确度有较大提高,表明修正后的计算方法具有一定的工程实用价值。     

Spatial pattern of the global shipping network and its hub-and-spoke system

Port system is a research focus of transport geography, and most studies believe carriers are important factors in the development and concentration of the port system. Since the 1990s, carriers have played an important role in organizing the global shipping network and reorganizing the port system. But there isn’t a perfect method to evaluate carriers’ influence and the roles of each port in the maritime shipping networks. In this paper, we use the monthly schedule table of international carriers to describe and model the spatial pattern of the global shipping network and identify its hub-and-spoke system. The result shows that a hierarchical structure exists in the global shipping network. The North Hemisphere, especially the East Asia and the Southeast Asia, is a dominant region of the worldwide shipping network. East Asia, Southeast Asia, Northeast Europe, and East coast of the USA are the concentration regions of worldwide shipping lines. The ports of Hong Kong, Singapore, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Kaohsiung etc have advanced capacity for maritime shipping and high potentials for being hub ports in the global shipping network. Today, the worldwide shipping network is transforming from the multi-port calling system to 44 regional hub-and-spoke systems. Meanwhile, the sub-networks with hub ports of Antwerp, Singapore, and Hong Kong have become the most important ones and dominate the whole global shipping network.