Analysis of intended bus usage

In order to plan bus operations, it is necessary for transit planners to understand what factors may influence travelers’ choice of buses for travels within a city. The proposed method involves various scenarios of a hypothetical bus operation which was rated by a group of individuals.

Analysis of Covariance technique is employed to analyze people's sensitivities to their perceived levels of bus service characteristics. The technique involves:

1. testing for the significant effects of varying levels of service characteristics upon people's intentions to use bus service, and

2. assessing differences among various population segments in their sensitivity patterns towards bus service characteristics.

Results from the application of the technique to attitudinal data collected by the Orange County Transit District indicate that bus service characteristics do influence, independently and jointly, respondents’ stated intentions to use buses.

Sensitivity pattern differed across the five homogeneous segments identified in an earlier research based on socioeconomic characteristics.

One segment (an older, predominatly male population segment with higher home ownership level and lower income than the rest of the sample) was relatively insensitive to changes in bus fare and was influenced by changes in headway independent of changes in access distance. Another segment consisting of fewer registered voters with lower education also exhibited similar independent impact of headway and access distance.

The technique is especially useful in reducing a large number of proposed alternative bus systems to a smaller set for further planning considerations by specifying the ranges within which variation of service characteristic would cause substantial changes in the intended usage responses.     

Applying the Rasch measurement to explore elderly passengers' abilities and difficulties when using buses in Taipei

This study developed an approach for measuring elderly passengers' abilities and to explore their difficulties in accomplishing the actions and motions required to patronize the bus service. A conceptual framework about the required actions and motions in bus‐taking was established and a questionnaire with 18 items was designed to test their ability to use buses. A face‐to‐face survey was conducted to collect self‐rated information from 304 elderly bus passengers in Taipei. The Rasch model was applied to estimate the difficulty of each item and the ability of each person to use a bus. Results showed the relatively difficult items primarily involved keeping balance on the moving bus, reading the posted information at the station, and recognizing the buses approaching the stations; the levels of physical ability were negatively associated with the respondent's age. Suggestions are made based on improving the facilities or services to help the elderly passengers achieve the necessary actions or motions for using the bus service. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization Of Headway,Vehicle Size and Route Choice for Minimum Cost Feeder Service

ABSTRACT

Many people use public transportation systems to reach their destination, while others use personal vehicles. Poor transportation systems do not attract ridership. Therefore, the usage of passenger cars increases, and traffic and environmental conditions deteriorate. Efficient public transportation has been recognized as one of the potential ways of mitigating air pollution, reducing energy consumption, improving mobility and alleviating traffic congestion. The objective of this study is to optimize a bus feeder service that provides the shuttle service between a recreation center (e.g. Sandy Hook, NJ) and a major public transportation facility, subject to site-specific constraints such as vehicle schedules, bus availability, service capacity and budget. The decision variables include bus headway, vehicle size and route choice. The solution methodology integrating both analytical and numerical techniques is developed, which optimizes the decision variables. Finally, the proposed solution methodology is applied to a case study. Numerical results, including optimal solutions and sensitivity analyses, are presented while the level of coordination between the feeder service and a major transportation service is discussed.     

A simulation model of the bus transitway (TRNSIM)

For planning and design of a bus rapid transit system and for the analysis of multimodal corridors, methodology is required for simulating bus traffic operation on a Transitway. Macroscopic models of vehicle flow are gaining popularity due to their capability to analyze complex operations and yet offer efficiency in development and applications. A macroscopic model is developed for the investigation of travel time, energy and emissions that correspond to bus volume levels on the Transitway. This paper describes the travel time part of the model. The model treats stochastic characteristics of bus traffic and passenger activities. Also, safety regimes in vehicle flow and factors affecting minimum headways in station areas are incorporated. The model is verified by comparing simulated travel time for the Ottawa-Carleton Transitway with actual data.     

Service quality––developing a service quality index in the provision of commercial bus contracts

The measurement of service quality continues to be a challenging research theme and one of great practical importance to service providers and regulatory agencies. The key challenges begin with the identification of the set of potentially important dimensions of service quality perceived by passengers, current and potential. We then have to establish a way of measuring each attribute and identifying their relative importance in the overall calculation of satisfaction associated with existing service levels. Once a set of relevant attributes has been identified, this information can be integrated into programs such as monitoring and benchmarking, and even in contract specification. This paper, building on earlier research by the authors, investigates ways of quantifying service quality and comparing the levels within and between bus operators. The importance of establishing suitable market segments and the need to scale the service quality index for each operator to make meaningful comparisons is highlighted.     

Bus arrival time calculation model based on smart card data

Bus arrival time is usually estimated using the boarding time of the first passenger at each station. However, boarding time data are not recorded in certain double-ticket smart card systems. As many passengers usually swipe the card much before their alighting, the first or the average alighting time cannot represent the actual bus arrival time, either. This lack of data creates difficulties in correcting bus arrival times. This paper focused on developing a model to calculate bus arrival time that combined the alighting swiping time from smart card data with the actual bus arrival time by the manual survey data. The model was built on the basis of the frequency distribution and the regression analysis. The swiping time distribution, the occupancy and the seating capacity were considered as the key factors in creating a method to calculate bus arrival times. With 1011 groups of smart card data and 360 corresponding records from a manual survey of bus arrival times, the research data were divided into two parts stochastically, a training set and a test set. The training set was used for the parameter determination, and the test set was used to verify the model’s precision. Furthermore, the regularity of the time differences between the bus arrival times and the card swiping times was analyzed using the “trend line” of the last swiping time distribution. Results from the test set achieved mean and standard error rate deviations of 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively. The proposed model established in this study can improve bus arrival time calculations and potentially support state prediction and service level evaluations for bus operations.     

Optimal bus service patterns and frequencies considering transfer demand elasticity with genetic algorithm

This paper attempts to optimize bus service patterns (i.e., all-stop, short-turn, and express) and frequencies which minimize total cost, considering transfer demand elasticity. A mathematical model is developed based on the objective total cost for a generalized bus route, which is optimized subject to a set of constraints ensuring sufficient capacity, an operable bus fleet, and service frequency conservation. To optimize the integrated service of a bus route with many stops, which is a combinatorial optimization problem, a genetic algorithm is developed and applied to search for the solution. A case study, based on a real-world bus route in New Jersey, is conducted to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed model and the solution algorithm. Results show that the proposed methodology is fairly efficient, and the optimized bus service significantly reduces total cost.     

Isolating high-priority metro and feeder bus transfers using smart card data

Fixed-rail metro (or ‘subway’) infrastructure is generally unable to provide access to all parts of the city grid. Consequently, feeder bus lines are an integral component of urban mass transit systems. While passengers prefer a seamless transfer between these two distinct transportation services, each service’s operations are subject to a different set of factors that contribute to metro-bus transfer delay. Previous attempts to understand transfer delay were limited by the availability of tools to measure the time and cost associated with passengers’ transfer experience. This paper uses data from smart card systems, an emerging technology that automatically collects passenger trip data, to understand transfer delay. The primary objective of this study is to use smart card data to derive a reproducible methodology that isolates high priority transfer points between the metro system and its feeder-bus systems. The paper outlines a methodology to identify transfer transactions in the smart card dataset, estimate bus headways without the aid of geographic location information, estimate three components of the total transfer time (walking time, waiting time, and delay time), and isolate high-priority transfer pairs. The paper uses smart card data from Nanjing, China as a case study. The results isolate eight high priority metro-bus transfer pairs in the Nanjing metro system and finally, offers several targeted measures to improve transfer efficiency.     

Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

Estimating bus run times for new limited-stop service using archived AVL and APC data

In recent years, several transit agencies have been trying to be more competitive with the automobile to attract choice riders. Transit agencies can only be competitive if they can provide services that are reliable, have a short access and egress time, and have run times that are comparable to automobiles. Several transit agencies try to be competitive through offering faster service, such as limited-stop (express) bus service. This study uses AVL and APC data, in addition to a disaggregate data obtained from a travel behavior survey, to select stops and estimate run times for a new limited-stop service that will run parallel to a heavily used bus route (67 Saint-Michel) in Montréal, Canada. Three different scenarios are developed based on theory and practice to select stops to be incorporated in the new limited service. The time savings for each scenario are then evaluated as a range and a fourth scenario is developed. A limited-stop service is recommended based on selecting stops serving both directions of the route, major activity points and stop spacing. This study shows that implementing a limited-stop service would yield substantial time savings for both, the new limited service and the existing regular service running in parallel.     

Short range transit planning in Cairo

This paper describes an approach to short‐range planning that was developed to analyze and suggest improvements to the existing transit system serving metropolitan Cairo. The methodology is based on a corridor‐by‐corridor analysis which not only brings the scale of analysis down to a level which is necessary to address operational issues, but also results in a technology transfer strategy which allows the local planners to apply and test planning techniques in one corridor while more advanced techniques are developed for another. Procedures using the results of a system‐wide on‐board transit survey are developed to allocate the bus fleet to the existing bus network, identify new express services, and identify new direct services. Because the effectiveness of procedures used in short‐range transit planning depends on the existence of accurate data, and given the resources required for a large‐scale survey, the development of planning procedures based on a continuing monitoring program is also recommended. This paper concludes that although techniques using on‐board surveys are limited in their applicability, the corridor‐based approach to planning is sound.

     

Optimal design of a short‐turning strategy considering seat availability

We develop a methodology to optimize the schedule coordination of a full‐stop service pattern and a short‐turning service pattern on a bus route. To capture the influence of bus crowding and seat availability on passengers' riding experience, we develop a Markov model to describe the seat‐searching process of a passenger and an approach to estimate the transition probabilities of the Markov model. An optimization model that incorporates the Markov model is proposed to design the short‐turning strategy. The proposed model minimizes the total cost, which includes operational cost, passengers' waiting time cost and passengers' in‐vehicle travel time cost. Algorithm is developed to produce optimal values of the decision variables. The proposed methodology is evaluated in a case study. Compared with methodologies that ignore the effect of bus crowding, the proposed methodology could better balance bus load along the route and between two service patterns, provide passengers with better riding experience and reduce the total cost. In addition, it is shown that the optimal design of the short‐turning strategy is sensitive to seat capacity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels

Improving the reliability of bus service has the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transit to current and prospective riders. An understanding of service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. However, few studies have been conducted analyzing bus reliability in the metropolis of China. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of service reliability based on bus operational characteristics in Beijing. Three performance parameters, punctuality index based on routes (PIR), deviation index based on stops (DIS), and evenness index based on stops (EIS), are proposed for the evaluation of bus service reliability. Reliability involves routes, stops, punctuality, deviation, and evenness. The relationship among the three parameters is discussed using a numerical example. Subsequently, through a sampling survey of bus lines in Beijing, service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels are estimated. The effects of route length, headway, the distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the use of exclusive bus lanes are also analyzed. The results indicate low service reliability for buses in Beijing and a high correlation between service reliability and route length, headway, distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the provision of exclusive bus lanes.     

Estimating heterogeneity of car travelers on mode shifting behavior based on discrete choice models

In order to understand the mode shift behavior of car travelers and relieve traffic congestion, a Stated Preference survey has been conducted in the city of Ji'nan in China to analyze bus choice behavior and the heterogeneity of car travelers. Several discrete choice models, including multinomial logit, mixed logit and latent class model (LCM) are developed based on these survey data. A comparative analysis indicates that the LCM has the highest precision and is more suitable to analyze the heterogeneity of car travelers. The LCM divides car travelers into three classes. Different classes have different sets of influencing factors in the model. Policy recommendations are also proposed for those classes to promote bus shift from car travelers based on the model results. Finally, sensitivity analysis on parking fees and fuel cost is carried out on the LCMs under different bus service levels. Car travelers have different sensitivities to the influencing factors. The conclusions indicate that the LCM can reflect the heterogeneity and preferences of car travelers and can be used to understand how to shift the behavior of car travelers and make more effective traffic policy.     

Passenger waiting time and information acquisition using automatic vehicle location for verification

Bus riders utilize a variety of information media to learn how to travel to their destinations and to learn when they should arrive at bus stops. As part of the OCTA (Orange County Transit Authority) Transit Probe evaluation, 1199 passengers were surveyed to measure relationships between information acquisition and waiting time. A unique aspect of the survey was that some of the data could be correlated with automatic‐vehicle‐location (AVL) measurements of bus lateness at stops. Insights are provided as to the types of information riders acquire based on the nature of the trip and demographic characteristics. Insights are also provided as to factors affecting perceived waiting time. We found age group, whether a person needs to arrive at a destination by a specific time, primary language, and whether the person is a first‐time user of the bus line to be significant causal factors.     

Passenger experience with quality-enhanced bus service: the tyne and wear ‘superoute’ services

This paper investigates the role that enhanced service quality introduced into a deregulated market has in improving the experience of bus travel by a sample of passengers in the Tyne and Wear area of England. A generalised ordered choice (GOC) model that accounts for preference heterogeneity through random parameters, as well as heteroscedasticity in unobserved variance, and random parameterisation of thresholds, is implemented to identify sources of influence on the overall experience of bus travel in the presence and absence of the quality-enhanced treatment of service. The GOC model is contrasted with a standard ordered logit model, and the marginal effects associated with the preferred GOC model are derived for each influencing attribute, taking into account the various ways in which each influence contributes to the utility associated with each level of bus experience. The paper supports a view that the introduction of quality improvements, via a Quality Bus Partnership, does contribute non-marginally to an increase in a positive bus experience, and signals a way forward through cooperative intervention, to grow patronage. Knowing which attributes successfully deliver a more positive experience (and those that do not) means that resources are effectively targeted at the aspect of service provision which will increase patronage and therefore revenues, satisfying the objectives of both the bus operator and the local authority partner.     

Time of day intervals partition for bus schedule using GPS data

Time of day partition of bus operating hours is a prerequisite of bus schedule design. Reasonable partition plan is essential to improve the punctuality and level of service. In most mega cities, bus vehicles have been equipped with global positioning system (GPS) devices, which is convenient for transit agency to monitor bus operations. In this paper, a new algorithm is developed based on GPS data to partition bus operating hours into time of day intervals. Firstly, the impacts of passenger demand and network traffic state on bus operational performance are analyzed. Then bus dwell time at stops and inter-stop travel time, which can be attained based on GPS data, are selected as partition indexes. For buses clustered in the same time-of-day interval, threshold values of differences in dwell time at stops and inter-stop travel time are determined. The buses in the same time-of-day interval should have adjacent dispatching numbers, which is set as a constraint. Consequently, a partition algorithm with three steps is developed. Finally, a bus route in Suzhou China is taken as an example to validate the algorithm. Three partition schemes are given by setting different threshold values for the two partition indexes. The present scheme in practice is compared with the three proposed schemes. To balance the number of ToD intervals and partition precision, a Benefit Evaluation Index is proposed, for a better time-of-day interval plan.     

Optimal feeder bus routes on irregular street networks

The methodology presented here seeks to optimize bus routes feeding a major intermodal transit transfer station while considering intersection delays and realistic street networks. A model is developed for finding the optimal bus route location and its operating headway in a heterogeneous service area. The criterion for optimality is the minimum total cost, including supplier and user costs. Irregular and discrete demand distributions, which realistically represent geographic variations in demand, are considered in the proposed model. The optimal headway is derived analytically for an irregularly shaped service area without demand elasticity, with non‐uniformly distributed demand density, and with a many‐to‐one travel pattern. Computer programs are designed to analyze numerical examples, which show that the combinatory type routing problem can be globally optimized. The improved computational efficiency of the near‐optimal algorithm is demonstrated through numerical comparisons to an optimal solution obtained by the exhaustive search (ES) algorithm. The CPU time spent by each algorithm is also compared to demonstrate that the near‐optimal algorithm converges to an acceptable solution significantly faster than the ES algorithm.     

Transit user perceptions of driverless buses

This paper reports the results of a stated preference survey of regular transit users’ willingness to ride and concerns about driverless buses in the Philadelphia region. As automated technologies advance, driverless buses may offer significant efficiency, safety, and operational improvements over traditional bus services. However, unfamiliarity with automated vehicle technology may challenge its acceptance among the general public and slow the adoption of new technologies. Using a mixed logit modeling framework, this research examines which types of transit users are most willing to ride in driverless buses and whether having a transit employee on board to monitor the vehicle operations and/or provide customer service matters. Of the 891 surveyed members of University of Pennsylvania’s transit pass benefit program, two-thirds express a willingness to ride in a driverless bus when a transit employee is on board to monitor vehicle operations and provide customer service. By contrast, only 13% would agree to ride a bus without an employee on board. Males and those in younger age groups (18–34) are more willing to ride in driverless buses than females and those in older age groups. Findings suggest that, so long as a transit employee is onboard, many transit passengers will willingly board early generation automated buses. An abrupt shift to buses without employees on board, by contrast, will likely alienate many transit users.