Mobilité et accès à la voiture chez les personnes âgées: Évolutions actuelles et enjeux

In France, and in most other industrialised countries, demographic ageing means that in the next decades there will be a rise among the elderly in vehicle ownership and driving for daily trips, long distance travel and leisure trips. This paper demonstrates the existence of these trends by drawing on a variety of statistical sources — National Transport and Communication Surveys, Urban Household Travel Surveys (Lyon) and surveys on French holiday practices. We nevertheless demonstrate that this structural change exhibits a high degree of differentiation with regard to gender, household income, place of residence and state of health. This change, which increases car use, is expected to continue during the next few years, especially among elderly women. Long term changes in lifestyles encourage the view that in the future people will cease to drive at a more advanced age. The increase in car use has important long-term implications in two areas. On the one hand it will affect road safety, on the other hand it raises the issues of the sustainability of mobility and the obligation to meet the needs of persons who are no longer able to drive.     

Modèles linéaires généralisés appliqués à l'étude des nombres d'accidents sur des sites routiers: Le modèle de Poisson et ses extensions

Models that link accident frequencies at road sites with traffic volumes and road characteristics provide reference values which are of value when carrying out diagnostic studies and deciding on preventive measures. Such models can be developed using generalized linear modelling techniques, which are able to take account of the Poisson properties of accident frequencies at road sites. The Poisson models obtained for road sites are frequently everdispersed, so extended forms of the Poisson model (quasi-Poisson, negative binomial a high percentage of the studied sites, in which case zero-inflated models also have to be considered. This paper presents an overview of these methods which are illustrated by modelling the relationship between accident frequency site characteristics and traffic volume on a large sample of bends.     

De l’intérêt de contrôler l’impact des hypothèses de composition du parc automobile sur l’estimation des émissions liées au trafic routier

Since the 1990s, transport project assessments take systematically pollutant emission estimations into account. This paper is about the methodological aspects of these calculations. It focuses more specifically on the car fleet hypothesis, which most often lays on national data, without consideration of local specificities. We use the last household travel survey from Lyon, 2006, and the SIMBAD model to compare the results of CO₂ and NO_x emissions estimated from the French national car fleet, the aggregated Lyon car fleet and the same fleet disaggregated by household location and income. We show that the error level varies, depending on the pollutant and the observation scale. The use of an aggregated local car fleet seems interesting and satisfactory for a global emission assessment. If the results are required at a more detailed spatial level, the use of this local fleet improves sharply the estimations in comparison of a national fleet; the fleet disaggregation refines the results for NO_x.     

Système d'aide à l'étude de la sécurité routière Vers des outils hydribes,ouverts et intelligents

The objective of this paper is to present the results of a survey of the literature on computer-based systems in road safety analysis. This study was motivated by the needs of road safety analysts and the designers of computer-based tools for use in this area. The literature gave examples where the computerization of several road safety functions is either proposed, undergoing development or actually complete. Furthermore, these functions have been associated with different types of technological orientations. However, some problems still remain to be solved in order to obtain reliable systems with accurate and complete data which integrate the expert knowledge which is needed to analyze and evaluate road safety. The proposed solutions are evolving and this survey suggests that tools in this domain should be hybrid, open and intelligent.