Mobilité et accès à la voiture chez les personnes âgées: Évolutions actuelles et enjeux

In France, and in most other industrialised countries, demographic ageing means that in the next decades there will be a rise among the elderly in vehicle ownership and driving for daily trips, long distance travel and leisure trips. This paper demonstrates the existence of these trends by drawing on a variety of statistical sources — National Transport and Communication Surveys, Urban Household Travel Surveys (Lyon) and surveys on French holiday practices. We nevertheless demonstrate that this structural change exhibits a high degree of differentiation with regard to gender, household income, place of residence and state of health. This change, which increases car use, is expected to continue during the next few years, especially among elderly women. Long term changes in lifestyles encourage the view that in the future people will cease to drive at a more advanced age. The increase in car use has important long-term implications in two areas. On the one hand it will affect road safety, on the other hand it raises the issues of the sustainability of mobility and the obligation to meet the needs of persons who are no longer able to drive.     

Les objectifs de qualité urbaine et de sécurité routière dans la planification de la mobilit'e plan urbain de trafic (Brescia) et plan de déplacements urbains (Aix-en-Provence), deux visions différentes

Apart from the fact that it is of interest in itself to conduct the first comparison between Urban Travel Plans in France and Italy, this paper has the more general aim of examining a number of ideas which are shared by the scientific community, namely that urban policies and planning practices take ittle account of, or even completely ignore, road safety, the relationship between town planning and transport planning and consultation.     

Prospective de la mobilité en Île-de-France Les apports et les limites d' une démarche économétrique

The author has used econometric equations to forecast travel by car and public transport in the Paris Region in the year 2020. The parameters of the equations were estimated on the basis of the observed trends since 1980. The technique is innovative in that it takes account of changes in structural factors (distribution of population by age, ring zone of residence and car ownership) using what are termed structural demand variables. Existing forecasts of these structural factors have been used. By applying hypotheses about changes in the remaining explanatory variables (income, transport price and supply) we have estimated traffic levels in a business as usual scenario whose sensitivity to the explanatory factors has also been tested. From this we have derived some additional indicators: network congestion, trip frequencies for each mode, travel time and aggregate quality indicators. Finally, some limits of this approach are discussed.     

Quelles interactions entre les marchés de la mobilité à courte et à longue distance ?

This paper proposes a comprehensive quantitative approach to travel analysis that considers personal travel practices with regard to three travel market segments: local weekday travel, local weekend travel and long-distance travel. The first section consists of an evaluation of the overall size of these segments and demonstrates the increasing importance of long-distance travel. Each market segment and then travel as a whole are then analyzed according to individuals’ position in the life cycle, residential location and income level. Last, the roles of location and income in the creation of travel demand in the different segments are then investigated for individuals in the middle part of the life cycle. In particular, it is demonstrated that weekend and weekday travel do not compensate for one another, but there are significant interactions between both local and long-distance travel, and, in particular, residential location.     

Système d'aide à l'étude de la sécurité routière Vers des outils hydribes,ouverts et intelligents

The objective of this paper is to present the results of a survey of the literature on computer-based systems in road safety analysis. This study was motivated by the needs of road safety analysts and the designers of computer-based tools for use in this area. The literature gave examples where the computerization of several road safety functions is either proposed, undergoing development or actually complete. Furthermore, these functions have been associated with different types of technological orientations. However, some problems still remain to be solved in order to obtain reliable systems with accurate and complete data which integrate the expert knowledge which is needed to analyze and evaluate road safety. The proposed solutions are evolving and this survey suggests that tools in this domain should be hybrid, open and intelligent.     

Cheminements piétonniers et exposition au risque

Travel surveys do not include all walking activity. The techniques that are employed tend to underestimate the proportion of walking in daily travel, and pedestrian exposure to traffic accident risk cannot be accurately computed from the resulting data. To overcome these shortcomings, the authors have developed an original survey technique that involves following and observing subjects in the Greater Paris Region. Recording the subjects’ trips (paying particular attention to walking episodes) during an ordinary day provides precise values for risk exposure that distinguish between the on-road and off-road components of walking activity. A number of different risk ratios are then computed, according to the geographical location and whether the pedestrian is walking on or off the road. These risk ratios are then compared to those that apply to motorists.